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Trump Rattle, Challenger Jobs, Cali Rock, and At the Ranch: FOWM

After expressing my outlook – that only a fool would hold a long market position over the three day Easter stock market break beginning from today’s close – I waded into the deep end of the pool again.  With one of those high-leveraged option plays that can work out nicely.

Trump & the Dancing Titanic

…and their band plays on….

Donald Trump’s speech to the nation didn’t buoy markets, but then we told you to expect another fleecing of the MAGA followers.  That’s on tap today.

Early futures were down almost 500 650 on the Dow, 80-ish  102 on the S&P, while the techs were looking at a nearly over two percent slide. Ure’s wild-eyed approach is to pick the most liquid tools out there.  One of which may be the 3X market ETFs, but no point stopping there – I went off a higher board with options on the 3X ETFs.  Anyone can play, but not the kind of thing anyone but Three-Piece and maybe The Economic Fractalist (and me, of course) should even mess around with.

It’s like shaking nitro glycerin just to see what will happen.  TEF’s remarks overnight (here and here) are in addition to his comments on his site over this way.

Let’s round up a few facts (which is how much gets through the mainstream): Middle East crisis live: oil prices climb after Trump defends Iran war in address to the nation.

His monumentalness is also shaking up the conservatives (and rational readers of the law) with Supreme Court casts doubt on Trump’s birthright citizenship order.  And to underscore how pissed they are: Democrats sue Trump administration over mail-in-voting order.

The left hasn’t been the same since being unable to get “One Nation, Under God…” axed.  Speaking of which, be sure and put this Why Files “basement” (long-form podcast) on your holiday weekend watch list. Basement #006: Scott Wolter | The Kensington Runestone, Templar Treasure, and the Green Jar.

Now Back to Finance

With the markets about to sink – so sayeth the futures – we need to see if there will be any salvation in the latest Challenger Jobs Cuts report.

Apr 02 Challenger Report: March Cuts Rise 25% From February, AI Leads Reasons
U.S.-based employers announced 60,620 job cuts in March, up 25% from 48,307 cuts announced in February. It is down 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Removing the wave of federal layoffs announced in February and March of last year, job cut announcements in 2026 are closely following the pattern of 2025. Last year it was Government, Retail, and Technology. This year, it’s Technology, Transportation, and Healthcare,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Toss in climbing oil and as reader Stephen2 pointed out, the two attacks by Iran on Saudi oil pipeline infrastructure is a very big deal.

Which Gets Us to Famine Talk

Now let’s put the pieces on the table, do some sliding around, and see where this all leads.  Famine.  Why The War in Iran Could Trigger the Worst Global Food Crisis Since the 1970s.

Of course, now it’s not just us tilting at outliers in the model runs.  Now the highly respected Polish Seer in an overnight posting (in Polish) on YouTube gave a chilling view forward:

“It may already be spoken of in some parts of the world by the end of summer this year, but at first only fears will appear. No one will believe such a famine can come. No one will want to believe it, and yet before long it will appear.

When Europe, or part of Europe, surrenders without war, money will be worth so little that for a period of time people will trade goods for goods. Can you imagine a world war carried out through blackmail?

Somewhere in the world, something will be launched that poisons crops and food in that region. And those who do it—the state or states that do it—will begin to blackmail the world that the same thing could happen elsewhere. This will be a new weapon that everyone will fear. That will already be the time of the Antichrist.

What I am saying is insane. But two states, perhaps three states in the world, acting in collusion, possess a biological weapon that the whole world will fear. The world will not know it directly, but it will see its effects. And those states will blackmail the world.”

No one is perfect in “prediction space” but we keep an eye on Krzysztof Jackowski’s work because his hit rate is far above noise.

Oh, and if there’s a (Project Blue Beam- like) incident involving Artemis on this moon mission don’t be surprised – all another grand deception to keep the humans in line on the prison planet.

There…where were we?

Cali Quakes

Long-term stochastics, the prophecy and seer crowd, and even the odd geo-phys types are worried about a Big Central USA quake this spring as a potential.  So when we get things popping off on the left coast, we pay attention.  For the simple reason the American plate is moving west and smacking into the “immoveable objects” out that way.  Which is where things like the Rocky Mountains and the coastal ranges (Cascades, Olympics) and the other stacks (Yellowstone, Sierras, Wasatch) happen.

M 4.6 – 1 km ESE of Boulder Creek, CA

We can speculate all day (“Might this be the one that kicks loose SoCal and brings on Joe Brandt’s dream from 1937?).

Also on planet shake and bake: Strong undersea earthquake hits off Indonesia, killing one – UPI.com.

Grinding on the News Stone

Ure’s “new nose knows news” due to constant sharpening! Here are some “sharp notes” to be aware of.

Kind of interesting about Anthropic, we figure.  First losing the faith of DoD and then source code… Anthropic took down thousands of GitHub repos trying to yank its leaked source code — a move the company says was an accident | TechCrunch.  Any bets on what this will do to forward prospects?

We continue to get great service from Starlink and our “mini” will go online as a backup to our security cams this weekend.  All the while Tesla Fans Could Be the Next Big Wave of SpaceX Investors | The Motley Fool.

Person going places? King Charles III to make a state visit to the US despite calls to cancel due to the Iran war.

Two health notes to track:

Around the Ranch: FOWM

Focus On What Matters

Here’s my problem going into the weekend.  I have two lists.  One is about things that really matter.

  • Move seedlings from hydroponics into grow room.
  • Plant the Gardenias, Lilacs, and additional grape vines when they show up this week.
  • Assemble new BBQ – move old one off deck.
  • Spend an offline hour driving into town to pick up ‘scripts.
  • Clean main bench in shop (again).
  • Put away tools from last couple of projects (again).
  • Find great deal on an additional greenhouse because of risk of bioterrorism down the road…

Competing is the fun list:

  • Put up one of the VG-4 verticals by the 180-room and run coax to my inside chair.
  • Assemble the Hermes 2 Lite including the I/O board ham radio transceiver.
  • Build new cedar greenhouse on BBQ deck and move that down to the ground level patio.
  • Move walking pad into office.

Not sure which of these will happen this weekend.

BUT one thing I can tell you is that with markets closed tomorrow, we will have a special ShopTalk Friday and a list of dream power tools to keep as a shopping list.  I will be in only long enough to put in the Jobs data tomorrow morning. This is a great weekend to take time off, rest up, and see which way the dive off the high board Monday lines up.

Never bet against gravity.

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Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

39 thoughts on “Trump Rattle, Challenger Jobs, Cali Rock, and At the Ranch: FOWM”

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  2. Diana and I had an extended breakfast this morning where we decided it is time to cut our activities back to more reasonable (her words) levels. We decided to not open the space at the farmers market and cut our work back here at the ranch. Grand daughter #2 will be working the greenhouse with me this summer and I’m actually looking forward to spending the time with her.
    I sent out an email to our customers early this morning. I am truly dreading having to look forward to talking with some of them.

    Regarding the Polish Seer post. Last spring, after I had decided to move forward on a fish production project in one of the greenhouses, with the help of a couple kids from the local trade school we put together of water the hardware for a sampling system upstream of the the greenhouses and the ranch house at the well house to test the water before it enters the ranch system. That’s as far as that project has gotten since it will require some much higher brain power than this old cowboy has. All it would take is for some knucklehead to dump a rapidly reproducing pathogen into a water supply to screw up everything. We already see higher levels of herbicides and insecticides in the well water that “supposedly” is taken care of with the reverse osmosis system. I still have an idea for setting up a larger sized water distiller but don’t tell Diana.
    They say change is good. Stay safe. 73

      • Hmmmmm. That’s an SDR transceiver right? I looked at one of those last summer on Reddit I think. Interesting. I just renewed my Xtra class ticket too. Thanks.

      • Lol lol my duck weed experience and aquaponics.. lol lol
        I read tilapia loved duck weed.. my aquaponic containers with nursery at the bottom was in totes..tgat way I could raise shrimp to.. I bought some duck weed.. it was maybe a half cup..I thought dam this isn’t much maybe a meal or two..
        I had an auto feeder hooked up so I didn’t check on it .. a few says went by..the wife comes in somethings rotten and stinks in the garage..I go out there and dam..it took off and filled the tote with this stinky mess..I had to drain the dam thing and separate the fish the prawns and red claws, crawdads etc..biggest mess I ever had in raising the fish..I did aqua police for twelve years couldn’t harvest them..didnt have the heart to do it..eventually gave the whole setup to an old friend that could do the dirty deed..flipper was over ten pounds..now I put a canning station there..
        What’s funny is duck weed can be transformed into bio?oil. This tiny plant grows faster than almost anything on Earth, and when it’s processed through pyrolysis, it turns into a thick, crude?like oil that feels like a glimpse into a cleaner energy future. It’s a reminder that nature hides potential in the most unexpected places…. it can be converted faster than plastic with less energy..Even converting it to cengas similar to woodgas..takes less energy and produces an extreme amount of energy..it just is rotten to keep in the garage growing it lol lol

  3. hahaha Good Article Today Dude!

    11 days until i depart to sail with NOAA, The Professer and Mary Ann on the very south Pacific ocean for a 3 hour tour.

    now if California doesn’t fall in ocean or God forbid I end up on Kong Island, when i get back I am tenitively heading over to Enoch Valley for 5 days to complete that Forest Fire Training. The Training is actually in Star Valley which is Kitty Corner to The Valley of Enoch. Morman Country.

    Should Fuel Prices Drop? I will stay paving and grabbing gears in the Great State of Washington and my woman will take that Door Dash for Hot Shots job.

    as it is Meow! Im riding that Prevailing Wage Gravy Train, and picking up Cash side Jobs every day.

    i spoke to the Elders a good while back. They were talking about the Balance of Life and Earth. about if you move a rock from one place to another that its not naturally from it tips the scale of the balance of things. and can alter things sometimes very very rapidly. alter the entire land scape of reality.

    This Mornings Ponder? Wonder what would happen if i took a naturally occuring Rock from Ant-Artica and placed it in the middle of Jackson Hole Wyoming?

    Hmmmmm.

    Right Turn Clyde!

    I Win with God within.
    Que: ~ Ocean front Poperty in Arizona

    https://youtu.be/ioPa1URjZ_Y?si=g6NS4d7EOtvks8b1

    –> George Straight!

    • ahhh George, my flight is booked. leave on the 12th. we are chasing a pod of Blue Whales. no antartica this trip.

      They Booked my airfare one way. i said what about my return trip? The fella said and i quote, “Well we dont know what is going to happen yet.” i said what do you mean “we dont know what is going to happen?” he said well we dont. we dont know yet what is going to happen. alot can happen. so we will book your return trip when we know more. it will be fine.” then he laughs nervously. i said that is very reassuring. he said well when you get back to port safely? we will book your return trip.

      huh.

      call me shark bait hoo ha ha.

      I Win with God with IN.

      • i have already had half of it. lol. on the left side of my body. i got the scar from a hole in the hand and the scar from the spear in the side and a burn mark on my left foot.

        so im already half way there.

        you someone said to me this morning JC? they said at some point you are going to start feeling old slow down. i said Im going to live to be a 118 years old. Im not even middle aged yet at 55. Im in the Prime of my life! I feel like a Million Bucks!

        Besides, I might not ever die.

        Who said I had too?

        Happy Good Friday!

        I wIN with God wiThin.

  4. Feverfew is a good plant to keep the bugs away too, it’s also good for circulation as an anti-inflammatory:

    https://www.medicinenet.com/what_is_feverfew_good_for/article.htm

    I started working with a naturalist after getting one Covid shot and one booster in August/September 2021. She had me go on a gluten and dairy free diet too, which I still follow. No more COVID vaccines for me.

    Feverfew can be taken as a supplement, consult your own physician.

    https://www.herb-pharm.com/products/feverfew/

  5. i doubt i would do that. It is Just a ponder.

    Wouldnt want the Agarthans in Shambhala to spill thier Tea and get their panties in wad.

    hahaha.

  6. George : always a fixer. The list conundrum is simple. For every check on must do list sprinkle in one from the would like to do list. Or, 2:1. The list(s) never end. We do. Have fun along the way.

    Though _not_ FA (financial advice) to make mention an oddity even his Georgeness (along with others wading into levered play pool) may have forgotten. Occasionally, in high volume moves, the ETF underlying, say 3x owning a put, can disassociate with price. Buyer beware kids.

    Some (many) levered underlying products, say NG or Wheat, or what-have-you aren’t really owned. It’s another synthetic position against the seller. The contract has a carrying cost, a burn rate, so all things equal, the contract experiences negative rolling return.

    Most derivatives were created to inject liquidity between willing parties for trade. Ex : Indiana farmer corn desires selling _X_ bushels, or truckloads, of corn. Kellogs needs corn to make corn flakes. They could all lawyer up issuing cross purchase contracts -or- exchange in a futures trade. Not for many. Beware.

    The current state of derivatives is mind numbing. It needs a spark. Hmm. See the repeated gating irt Private Credit? Without mark to market (probably lower) this looks sparky.

    Foggy day. Yesterday was brutal, eleven hour turn-around getting my sister to and from another exotic cancer treatment consult in Indianapolis. I drove and bought (4) Shapiro’s Reubens to go. Had an insane piece of poppy seed cake. Elderly Jewish woman, A92 asked to join me at my window round table. It was a treat (before hammering back home.

    What to do today? Ah, go for a drive (med. script and banking). Perfekt.
    You all stay safe out there.
    Egor ~/0 ~~

  7. I jumped in yesterday., right near the rally close. Options/Puts on the S&P and NASDAQ.., did very well at the open.., let it ride for about an hour.., then got out shortly afterwards – didn’t look right. The markets have sense turned around and are positive.., may be a bit a of closing rally – wait and see on that. Seems everyone is a little nervous. Which is a bad place to play with a Lunch-Money Account.
    – Won’t be holding over the weekend. [ Though I have a pretty good idea just where the market is headed.]

    – I started boxing at an early age.., was fighting in Golden Gloves from 13 onward. I had to give up working out on the heavy bag last year – my hands couldn’t take the routine punishment anymore. [ I have a tendency to get a little aggressive when I start smacking something.] I still work out on the speed bag – three times a week [ or whenever I am feeling a bit too domesticated.] I also still ‘skip rope’. But I have been told that I should not be doing it., as over 70 it is not good for my hips and knees.
    – Funny., in a way. All the routine exercises & workouts that I have done my whole life to stay in shape, balanced and reactive.., are now suddenly “not good for me” as I have passed a magical “old person” number. .., damn !
    – It would look a bit funny to walk around with seven foot Bo. Though I do know quite a few tricks and maneuvers with a walking cane. I may start that training up again.

    It could be an interesting weekend – stay alert everyone.

    “Stay Frosty !”

  8. West Texas Tea is $109.8 a barrel this morning – Brent NorthSea is $107.1 a barrel. I can not remember when I have seen Texas Intermediate higher then Brent crude. Interesting.
    .
    Quote of the Day
    – “I don’t make mistakes – I create challenges for problem solving and opportunities for service.”
    .
    This morning there was a very large up-tick in air strikes by Israel and the U.S. against Iran infrastructure. One reporter on the ground said it is ‘massive’.
    Wake up call to Iran ?

    “I am not here to negotiate. I am here to accept your surrender, or take your head. You decide.”
    .

    “Stay Frosty !”

  9. stocks down? yeah right … instant recovery … next ………….. 400 NAz-crap points recovered in one hour …. wow …. them boys working that “save” button hard …… how it ends up before close and 3 day weekend … does it really matter …… and whatever “might” happen over weekend …. them boys have plenty of time to save it all again ……….. as the band plays on …. good luck all

  10. “famine”

    One way to get car-less 15 minutes cities, bug proteins in the stores and all the other trimmings like UBI. People who didn’t go along will flip and demand the changes.

    That’s why I’ve lobbied for the Poll Widget. Not to play gotcha but to find out why they flipped – what changed in their thinking?

  11. “UK gathers more than 40 countries to press Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz”

    Trump encouraged them to buy U.S. oil and that’s the cheapest option all the way around.

    ‘No. 1, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much.’

    ‘Remember, because of our drill baby drill program, America has plenty of gas. We have so much gas. Under my leadership, we are No. 1 producer of oil and gas on the planet, without even discussing the millions of barrels that we’re getting from Venezuela.’

    Transcript –

    Read the complete transcript of Trump’s address to the nation

    https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-transcript-address-iran-war-b5970011fe934dde84d95d650bda56a9

  12. Global Food Crisis – World Wide Famine. That just doesn’t seem possible., does it ? But.., if you dig a little – play with the numbers and sprinkle a little “what if” on top of it all – it does appear to be possible.., very possible. ., and very frightening.
    Tens of millions in this country alone would have no idea what to do if they can’t buy from a grocery store. And what happens when the food starts getting a little scarce and the store shelves look a little bare? I can not imagine a food riot in Dallas., or Philly.., or LA. In “this” country? Seriously ?
    Don’t know if it will get that bad., here., as we do have the means to produce all that we need to feed the population – nothing fancy – but we could do it. Distribution and sales would be very problematic though. Those are the flash points.., the violence.
    I am kind of stunned at that prospect.

    As good as I am with a raised bed vegetable garden, I can not grow enough food to get us from harvest to harvest. Just can’t do it. Luckily I have the means to supplement what I can “grow” with what I can “buy” [ for now., anyway.] and store. Can you ? Have you? Will you?

    .., it looks really fugly if you research a bit. It might be best if you didn’t. Just buy as much shelf-stable food as you can afford – monthly – & stock-up. It won’t go to waste.

    “Stay Frosty !”

    • I went to Winco the morning after the Saturday Covid Panic. It was a mess. They were trying to restock, but the store looked like it had been shot at and hit, and sh!t at and hit multiple times. One of the stockers looked at me and said, “They trashed the place”.
      The most interesting thing was what was completely gone. Tp took a big hit. Potatoes were untouched, but bananas were, well, bananas. Bulk foods were largely untouched. Milk and bread were gone. Can’t have enough milk and bread on hand for a pandemic.

  15. i think you should go to vegas for the weekend george . like yah can bet spreads on the united states of trump . play some slots the USOT is a good one . its fixed to win . then yah can chill out in the can kicking room . sink some maga cocktails

  16. support the crooks eh !!! get AId and robot . plenty $$$$ .. i wonder what the king of lies prechter calls those structures ? like march 6 2009 when they dragged him out to tell lies about a bottom . a gang of cons

  17. Had a quiet conversation with several real citizens with experience in the WA oil world and the operation of said platforms and such.
    The most knowledgable (for what I can gather) said he had sources (not the news) that say in some farming areas of QLD there is only FIVE days of diesel available.
    Our latest trip to the big store 8k away had far less produce and some shelves normally chock full showing spaces.
    We have already made contingency plans to shift back to floating quietly and be ready. Mad Max is not something that we want to experience. The trap is the belief that all the ‘connections’ like rent, slip fees, the acceptance that things can’t change, and rapidly at that, are more important or real than the ability to put wet distance between our old selves and dirt bound threats. When the cities of millions can’t be fed, we are just three meals from anarchy as one of our friends said last night.
    We do pray that the veneer of civilization will hold against the chafe of change and the basic goodness of the people here will guard against that.
    One of the couples at dinner are dropping the dock lines on Sunday, full tanks, lockers of stores, and high skill for carrying on. Northbound and more if necessary. He said he had worked in Vanuatu for years and that would do them fine.
    I did have envy, i must admit. The process of adapting to the dirt, the requirements that must be met, all come into question when considering any scenario that is not positive and good for us ‘elders’.
    People speak about ‘bugging out’ but the question is always, when is it too late?
    I trust the Dude to let me know.
    Stiks

    • Vanuatu has a long rainy season, with significant rainfall almost every month. The wettest and hottest months are December through April, which also constitutes the cyclone season. The driest months are June through November.[105] Rainfall averages about 2,360 millimetres (93 in) per year but can be as high as 4,000 millimetres (160 in) in the northern islands.[107] According to the WorldRiskIndex 2021, Vanuatu ranks first among the countries with the highest disaster risk worldwide.

  18. A quad levered Option ??…

    Pure Genius , not by any stretch of the imagination. Many brokerage houses won’t even allow their customers to Buy or Sell QUAD levered products.

    Guess you never heard the sage old advice/saying, Bulls an Bears go to the Market, Pigs get slaughtered.

    Oh well you should also know the other associated old saying, “A Fool and his money are soon parted”.

    Good to know you are so “flush” as to be able to play with quad levered Options in a lunch money account. Obviously you like eating high end lunch in Tokyo steakhouses. Good on you mate, you and the genius from unda should put together a Trading course.

    PS – Beach traffic is here ! Last rest stop we went thru on way to an oak Island today was crowded with families and vehicles that were packed up good, at least ones with back door/hatches open when drove by. Heavy volumes, but BetterHalf, 1 Eclectus Parrot and 2 Jacks made it to Atlantic Intercoastal Waterway place by 7:00 – still light out. And my packages were sitting outside door waiting me when we pulled in.
    PSS Biliton spinoff Woodside – has me reringing The Register. Natty for the WIN.

    I win with the natural gas within, and that campers is what you call Gross Prophets.

    • the guru of sheetcoin .. the sage of reduced cognitive function . mr ed !!! a horse is a horse of course . go away dur dur dur

  19. re: Blood Moon reprise
    feat: #47 has spoken

    The “CBC” informs that Wednesday evening’s broadcast speech by #47 impacted regularly scheduled programming. On “CBS” for example, it seems the two hour special “Survivor – The Blood Moon” saw its tribal circle segment interrupted in the eastern time zone to the annoyance of fans. Meanwhile Canada’s “Global TV” passed on the presidential address. Instead viewers received a treat in the form of a 12+ year old episode rerun of “Border Security – Canada’s Front Line”.

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