Markets on the High Board: Replay 1929 – or 1998?

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Those of us judging Long Wave Economics are ready with the flip-number boards as the market heads toward what we’d reckon – at first blush – to be at least a retest of the Thursday lows.

After that, it’s anyone’s guess, although we sure like the look of a modest rally for at least a little while next week.  It was that kind of pattern in 1929.

My Consigliere Differs

Being another one of those polymath sorts (J.D., C.P.A., pilot, extra class ham, etc…) who was also active in the University of Colorado Long Waves Group when Ure was polishing off his masters in the late 1990’s, I can just ignore his well-reasoned alternative view of what happens next.

You see, he makes the case that what’s immediately ahead could be a clone of 1998.  That is, the market will continue its “high board” for a while, but when it gets down far enough (Peoplenomics subscribers will see this as “The Joe Line” on the Daily chart tomorrow), things will turn up and we will get one more run upward to carry us into 2022.

My contrary view is that we will bounce (off “the Joe Line”) but then – just like 1929) we will finish thee “two-and-a-half-gainer” with a collapse through previous lows in late April.  A major rally then (like the one beginning from 11/14/1929 and continuing to 4/10/1930.  Into late summer.

The modern analog would be a hair-raising decline into mid/late May now – rally over the Summer, and then a further halving of the Market this fall.

“No, it’s too early.  There are several indicators including the Spiral Calendar that argue the real break will come in 2022…”

To be fair, this kind of outlook would be ideally played off the short-term trend channel bottom which is nearby as we pencil in early futures this morning like so:

So, the “Trading Cases” are really all over the place.

  • One workout would be to come down to the bottom of the trend channel and from there take off to complete the still unfilled trading box.  This would argue a higher high into summer and then things fall in the Fall.
  • If this happens, we get the possibility of my Consigliere outcome:  Which is a sell off, but then higher into at least early 2022.  Then crap winds up.
  • However, another option would be to collapse now (down to the “Joe Line – which is the top of the Wave 1 of this Elliott count) and then rally, perhaps over summer) and then see things halved again this fall.
  • OR, we could have a major drop below the trend channel to wrap up this week, a rally next week, and then follow 1929 down for a near perfect first major low (analogous to the Nov. 1929 first major low) then rally over summer to mid August to early September, and march to the guillotine from there.

As always, we don’t offer advice.  Just some financial kibitzing to pass with coffee with while awaiting the call to the throne.

Consigliere vs. Idiot Client (ii)

Although we agree on many things in Life – important stuff like single engine aircraft, best HF radios, and other critical supplies – we also vary on our outlook for Bitcoin in the long term.

His view is more “crypto friendly” than mine.  But when I lay it out, I think you’ll see this is like totally graceful economic fiction.  Not of the style of my mentor on such thinking (Dr. Paul Erdman back in the day).  But read this scenario like a novel and you might enjoy it:

  • The novel opens with a computational future group – hidden deep in government – coming up with an “emergency, off-books, bankroll that would fund a future federal bailout.  It would be paid-for only by people who could afford to take the loss.
  • Under the cover of an odd Japanese name, this bailout plan uses newly minted blockchain as the lynchpin and evolves into crypto currencies.
  • The government let’s cryptos run – because the people who can personally help to bail out the crooked elective government will be bidding up the price of the cryptos like mad.
  • When the time comes, though, and the government has fired its last round from the official printer cannons, the government makes one final deft move and cracks down on Bitcoin and all other pseudo currencies.
  • The effect is to sudden send a how much money looking for a new home?  Into stocks flows money.
  • So buoyed, normalcy bias is returned.  My consigliere’s 1998 scenario comes to pass, and the fires lit by the War Party (democrats went bombing Syria overnight) don’t let economic breakdown in until his 2022 timeline.  (We assume you know the amoral neocons changed parties and are now leading the dems foreign policy blood-blunders to come…)

Could It Happen?

Consigliere’s view is that no, the cryptos aren’t big enough to matter.

Ure’s view is they already ARE that big.

Consider, the total Bitcoin pile is what?  16.5 million units *(rounding).  Now, multiply that times its highest-ever price:  Around $58,000 each.

Simple-minded Ure pencils this as $957,000,000,000.  In other words, just under $1-trillion worth (of Fool’s Blocks).  And that’s before we count the valuations of more than 2,000 wannabe clones.  Maybe, what?  $1.4-trillion?

My consigliere figures that’s nothing compared with the $1.9 trillion in (pork and) Stimulus bill that will be rubber-stamped today.  The market dropping down to the trend line could just be a little “street corner activist lobbying…”

Thing is, in my (admittedly demented) novel capturing this (is Harlequin Finance a novel style, yet?) the government at the critical moment makes noise about outlawing Bitcoins and cryptos. People bail and the money flows into the only liquid assets left:  Massive devalued U.S. Federal Reserve Note denominated stocks.

Like it?  Maybe sell a script to Amazon for a mini-series?

Crooked Fed Punishing Lazy

Afraid we have been too direct lately:  Pointing out in the Fed’s weekly H.6 Money Stocks confessional how absurd the printing press is firing off pallets of cash.

So with this week’s report on H.6, they “hide the sausage.”  No more annual, 13 and 26-week inflation rates.  No more simple useful reporting of how the Fat Thumb on the Scale are running things.

Instead, using their own numbers, here’s how annual inflation of M1 and M2 is running by their own numbers:

(We assume you know NSA means not seasonally adjusted so SA means “statistically spiced?”)

In their defense (like hiding the sausage from We the Wee People as ever, right?) they made some definitional changes to M1 which made it look like they were printing at crazy-house rates.  Which they were…which is why our National Debt to GDP ratio is “Going Cyprus” while Joe Fiddles and Harris diddles…

As the NY Times reported today:  “Bond Markets Worry About the Fed.”  So do we, by golly…

Hot Data!

Well hot damn!  Check out the morning’s bevvy of market sauces being ladled on the hash browns today:

Personal income first:  Hopium for the dopiums…

“Personal income increased 10.0 percent (monthly rate) while consumer spending increased 2.4 percent in January as provisions of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act enacted on December 27, 2020, began to take effect.”

Then International Trade:

“The international trade deficit was $83.7 billion in January, up $0.5 billion from $83.2 billion in December. Exports of goods for January were $135.2 billion, $1.9 billion more than December exports.  Imports of goods for January were $218.9 billion, $2.5 billion more than December imports.”

And then Inventory data:

“Wholesale inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $661.6 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from December 2020, and were up 0.5 percent (±0.7 percent)* from January 2020. The November 2020 to December 2020 percentage change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* to up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent).”

Inventories at retailer level:

“Retail inventories for January, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $625.1 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2020, and were down 5.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from January 2020. The November 2020 to December 2020 percentage change was revised from up 1.2 percent (±0.2 percent) to up 1.9 percent (±0.2 percent).”

This last number ought to goose the hell out of markets.  That’s a humongous drawdown on inventory and that means tons of sell-through.  But not all dandy, because that could be inflationary, which kills bonds…Well you know how that merry-go-round rolls.

With all this, Dow futures are?  Down 106 on the Dow but the S&P is nearly flat and the NASDAQ futures are UP at click time.  So our read on retail as super-strong is likely good and a rally after some Big Boy Shorts unload positions could lessen the week’s declines.  But, we shall see…

Short and Not So Sweet

With what is it?  Five ERCOT board members quitting?  Did you see where “Lawsuit filed against ERCOT, CenterPoint after Texas man dies of hypothermia during power outage“?

The “Rubber Stamp Gang” (a/k/a Fools on the Hill) are on the loose. The House is expected to pass the gargantuan relief package today for what Biden hopes will shape the eventual post-pandemic period.  More pork than substance…but at least something for the market to turn on…

And – if you read my book Broken Web, you’ll appreciate that the Web may be returning to its “right-sized” roots.  This as Twitter goes paywall: Twitter to let users charge followers to see premium posts.  Like who’d pay to?  We’ve long held that in order for the Web to be genuinely a grass roots deal, these billionaire boys club people were just scamming people by getting social media people to gin up free product (content, posts) for them.  Dishonest as hell…but hey!  Who cares about ethics anymore, right?

Elaine’s Hip Adventures

Between the quinine and potassium, magnesium, and calcium, plus drinking more fluids, she’s back to over-doing it…again.

Ure didn’t get the supply run done Thursday, so that’s on tap today.

Still wondering why I can’t get Rolling Rock beer included in the curbside orders anywhere in town.

Gotta say, if I’m back to pondering that kind of minutia, things here in Bliz-Tex country are improving.

Ham radio bud Jeff and I had a great conversation about “water purity indicators” – and how Pasteurizing water (150F and up) might be much more energy efficient that boiling.  Just longer hold times.  Interesting stuff and making such indicators is not terribly expensive.  Involves a special wax that melts over 150F…

And the local water outfit popped over an email with updated local scoop: “We are still under a boil notice. We are taking water samples to the lab in Tyler today (Thurs). We hope to hear back from them in 24- 36 hours.”

I’m anxiously awaiting this.  One of the problems with a “modern” fridge is the automatic icemaker is not conducive to boiling water and getting that pressured and plumbed into the system…

The afternoon martin without ice is hardly civilized, but that’s how life is out here on the American Frontier, huh?  Ice trays going in the prepper stores?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

51 thoughts on “Markets on the High Board: Replay 1929 – or 1998?”

  1. George as always you caught my eye with the pasteurizing statement. As a home brewer of ciders and other hootch the number I have always heard was 186F for 5-7 minutes does the job. As to date worked wonderfully for me….now to get back to bottling 3 gallons of strawberry/rhubarb hard fizzy cider.

    • Frankness… did you buy the rhubarb juice? ( if so where did you get it ) or did you just boil rhubarb to get the juice..
      What’s your recipe.. the wife is asking for strawberry rhubarb wine..

      • As for the Strawberry/Rhubarb ……I take multiple pounds of strawberries and juice them. Same for the rhubarb. For a 3 gallon batch I use a total of 2 1/4 gallons of Strawberry juice to about 3/4 gallon of rhubarb juice. to this I add 40 oz of brewing sugar and a couple ounces of lime juice and a teaspoon of salt and about half a pack of brewing yeast. I tend to favor the dry champagne yeasts in regard to flavor. Let it bubble away for 7-10 days, rack into another container, and add about a half gallon of sweet strawberry juice and a back end sweetener. (non-sugar) let it sit for another week to 10 days. keep the bobbler on it the entire time. After that bottle and add a teaspoon or so of sugar to create the fizzy. Keep at room temp for a day or three to get the fizzy going and then refrigerate My last batch averaged about 6.8% abv .

      • Thank you thank you thank you Frankness… I will start a batch this weekend.. dam that sounds delicious.. the recipe is going in my file of great recipes… we have been buying strawberry rhubarb wine from my wifes old uncles farm.. the people that bought it turned it into a winery.. but I never had a good recipe.. this one sounds really really good…and I have a freezer full of rhubarb from last summer..

    • There’s this ancient technology called “ice cube trays”. You might find a description of them in an old paper thing called a book. If you don’t have any trays, you can improvise with shot glasses. Regardless, if you start now, you should have available ice units by the martini time.

  3. Rolling Rock Beer is a ‘summer’ beer for me, in the small Pony Bottles. Ya drink it before it warms up.

    Friend of mine, up the mountain, had a knee replacement and then over did it! He is still having problems while another friend had both knees replaced (at the same time!) and he is fine. Both had the same doctor. So, your young lady needs to cool her jets and assist Mother Nature in the healing process with some gentle therapy (I have done massage work) added to her routine or so I think. Poco a poco.

    Cheers

    • This “warming up effect” you speak of is a new one on me. I’ve never had an open rolling rock last long enough to observe, let alone measure it. After a good pull at an icy long neck, by the time I’m ready for a second measurement…there’s nothing left to measure! Damnedest thing ever…

      • https://youtu.be/Qof_KAirUh0

        I tried to get a 12 pack to send to someone in the military in iraq..at that time they couldn’t be purchased by anyone from the usa..lol
        I made a can cooler a long time ago for beer with a windshield washer pump and a tumble stones ice and salt..
        The solar beer chiller was the cats meow.. the big deal with that was similar to the instant can.. and the desiccant..I wonder if a drink cup could be made with a replaceable co2 cartridge..hmm.. th he cartridges wouldn’t need to be as big as those normally sold..maybe a third as big.. desiccant salt .. or maybe glauber salt

      • I’ve never figured out why RR is a “discount” beer but I sure as hell ain’t complaining! I think it’s on par with Corona or Heinie.

  4. Why O why Mr G – does this market make me feel like some classic Dr Demento ?

    Dude – sure feelz like.. “I’m looking over my dead dog Rover” https://youtu.be/gzd8utz2tts when sizing up markets this AM.

    * 10 yr. Treasury Bond is now yielding over 1.5% – and that Chickens will bring the market down as 10 yr Yield Equals the Avg Dividend Yield – DOW..without the inherent risk of market volatility eating all Ure money.

    of course the argument has another side (s) and that speaks to US govt/Fed RISK.
    Doddering, sundowning, drooling, shuffling el pretendente, stolen election, 3/4 of all voters KNOW their vote was stolen, a worthless, spinless military, TTTTTTrillions in UNBACKED Debt – not to mention..

    The FED is broken – FRB services are failing – like the first little snow balls/chunks that go rolling by U as U R descending the ski slope just prior to the avalanche-like a Glitch in the Matrix.. How long before creditors start demanding HARD “currency” like Silber from US govt. ? rumor is some already are demanding physical

    No worries Bitcoinz – BTC luvs me and I in turn luv BTC’s…wish I could afford ONE.

    Bonus time – 2/23 RSI told U to get out.
    2/24 MACD told U to get out.
    – oscillators did their job..looking for lower (40k) to Buy The Dip, properly.
    GBTC premium is NEGATIVE this AM – never seen that before ..will be arbed away soon – but right now that is”free” money.

    Got BTC? no? get a satoshi then – and stop wondering what it is like to own an asset that regularly takes U on gut wrenching roller coaster rides..

    “and she’ll have fun fun fun till Gdaddy takes the cyrpto away” -blockchainbeachboys

    • “How long before creditors start demanding HARD “currency”

      You know what’s funny about that Crash is just a few years ago.. a shiploadofcontainers was delayed.. the creditors wanted cold hard currency not us currency before they would allow it to be off loaded..
      I have always wondered just what it was that they agreed on .. I’m pretty sure we didn’t pay in gold or silver. But shortly after that us companies and land began being acquired by foreign investors..

  5. Had a major woo-woo dream last night. Ultra-clear, full color, 10-channel sound, and in Astounda-Scope 650 Hyper-Screen.

    Very immersive and Real.

    I went up to the supermarket entry door, and there was a thing like a small TV on a fencepost. (Something like a parking meter, only with a little TV on top.)

    Anyway…

    Before they’d admit you to the store — and everybody had to have bright orange VISITOR I.D.s on a neck lanyard — you had to stand on two painted footprints on the floor while the parking meter-TV took your forehead temperature, and your faceprint I.D. was matched to “The Big Computer.”

    After about a second you either got a green light, and the attendant would put the lanyard I.D. over your head, and you’d go on in to shop,

    OR,

    you’d get a red light, and two big burly football players, in full colorful numbered uniforms would violently tackle you, and you’d be tossed into to a grey Dodge Pacifica van, which would then speed away.

    I got a green, so they let me into the store, where the displays and prices and everything were all “normal.” The shopping carts were extremely large — maybe four times the size of a regular one, with big puffy cartoon style tires. When I was done shopping, two surgical-masked assistants helped me — I had no choice — load my stuff into the car, and they directed me to a one-way lane outbound to the highway. They each got a required $1 tip.

    Oh. Yes. I forgot to say — there was no checkout. As you took items from the shelf, a totalizer in the handle of the cart would register each item, and when you were done, you just left: you were all done. Your credit card account was automatically charged.

    And then, I think I woke up. Well, I’m sitting there typing this, anyway. So, I think I’m awake. So far.

    • Other than the temperature thingy and helping putting the stuff in your vehicle that is much the way the test Amazon Grocery Store run.

      Scan your whatever when you walk in, put stuff in your cart, just walk out pushing the cart. As you put each item in your cart it gets totalized and when you walk out you credit or debit card gets charged. Neat and scary at the same time.

      Haven’t shopped at Whole Paycheck in a while but I imagine once Bezos gets the technology perfected in a couple of more years that is how Whole Paycheck will work.

      fwiw … other than some brew they carry there and nowhere else I don’t shop at Whole Paycheck … except … except …. the one near me, which for a LONG time was the largest in the US, has various walkup counter restaurants in it and OMG, the food is fabulous at each one – equals to or better than most of the better restaurants in my city.

      Order what you want at the counter (limited but always changing menu), pick it up at the counter and carry it back to a table in the middle of the grocery store to eat (no waiters or waitresses). Ditto with wine or been from their wine selection. Pick what you want, have them scan it and open it at the restaurant counter and then carry it back to your table.

      A $60 restaurant meal for $15 as long as you don’t mind eating at a table in the middle of a grocery store. Wine pricing of course is just as good since the rule of thumb is 1 glass of wine at a restaurant = the cost of 1 bottle of that wine and at Whole Paycheck you just pay for the bottle plus a $2 corking fee as I recall. 4 glasses of wine for the price of 1 glass of the same wine at a regular restaurant. OH … and of course, NO TIPPING!! which saves you even more.

      Not into shopping at Whole Paycheck … (Whole Foods) … but it is a great place to go get a topflight dinner with wine for 1/4 – 1/3 the cost of an equivalent meal in a restaurant!!

  7. The one thing for sure is after the crash the reasons will be obvious. Like always.

    Gold does look like it’s moving from falling wedge into waterfall.

    • Watch the 30 yr treasury yield..
      – like clock work – as it rises/Gold goes Down, As it declines/Gold goes up.
      Compare both lines on a log. chart – throw in 100 week moving average – sweet lil timing signal..

    • The recent high in gold was placed about 55 days ago following lower lows from August 2020.

      Perhaps gold will waterfall down to $1,000 as mentioned the other day.

  8. It only makes sense that the crypto market will run its course eventually, say 2030 or 2040. Doesn’t mean you can not make money on the way up !! But a factor to consider would be a functional breakdown in government due to the currency devaluation, which is the bribery system falling apart. With few other options available for transactions, and precious metals being unpractical, due to weight and purity concerns, then what else do we have ?? People are rapidly losing all faith in their government, and by association its commerce processes. Therefore, be prepared for regional and local conflicts and shortages.

  9. So the fed sends a few $billion to the largest banks that are already drowning in cash and can’t figure why that doesn’t help employment? Oh yeah, the states are shutting business, home incarcerating workers and everybody else. Maybe opening the refrigerator will put out a stove fire?

    My mead making recipe uses 160-170 degrees for 15-20min to pasteurize and preserve some of the volatile honey flavors. That probably factors in antibacterial herbs and a final alcohol content of over 11%. The water gets boiled in the pan first, just in case. 185 degrees may include a safety factor of 2.5 which is standard with engineers to cover their butt.

    • “So the fed sends a few $billion to the largest banks that are already drowning in cash ”

      To stimulate the economy.. you never give it to the guy swimming in it… just read the Panama papers.. theres what somewhere around 40 trillion being hidden from taxation.. and how many trillion being diverted yearly.
      You give it to the ones that will spend it . Of course at this point it only helps china and their economy but hey mom and pop stores thrive malls and banks because of the velocity of cash..

      • It’s not just about money being hidden from taxation! If you can’t spend it on something you need or really want, why work that hard just to feed the beast? In any progressive taxation system, there’s a sweet spot that varies for individuals and entities according to their circumstances. Why not stay in that sweet spot? It’s simply about maximizing value received(after taxes) per unit of effort. If you don’t need or want much, it’s very difficult to incentivize more work. The classical fix has been to destroy what we own through war or other means. Then we get incentivized again.

  10. “Between the quinine and potassium, magnesium, and calcium, plus drinking more fluids,”…
    G, you didn’t say but I guessin’ ure both taking D3 as well. You also need to be taking some vit. K2 (in the form of mk7) in order for the calcium to work for bone health. all three work together.
    This will explain it better than I can.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-KGceRenn4&t=2315s
    It’s kind of a long vid but start at the 8:07 mark for a good explanation of how this works…
    Might want to add some Serrapeptase to help reduce the internal scaring….

  11. Water quality control: Not inexpensive but for us keeps the scale out of our tea kettles / heated water in office water unit, plus with UV it will provide a safer water source.

    iSpring RCC1UP 6-Stage 100 GPD Under Sink Reverse Osmosis Drinking Water Filtration System With Booster Pump and UV Ultraviolet Filter

    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00LZWPH4Q/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

    Had two of these, one for over 5 years – plumbed directly into fridge icemaker / water. Added a 20 gallon tank 2 yrs ago as we use the water also for food prep / humidifiers (the primary use btw). Need to do your filter PM but other than replacing one UV tube they have been flawless…

    Best to you and E.

    Mark

  12. Lol lol lol lol…
    I’m watching an nm old western movie.. lol lol lol lol…
    One of the subs that they always used was womans breasts.. so they cut away to go to commercial..right at the point where the hero is riding down the path.. the cut away was two breasts overlaid on the backside of the horse…lol lol lol lol
    Just to give a guy that I sure do love that horse feeling lol lol lol

  13. The horses may be sending us a warning:Today at Freehold Raceway,within 40 miles of Wall Street,a horse named Lookout Stokk Zone won the first race.

  14. The Middle Eastern diplomatic community must be rolling eyes at the weak-kneed Pop fly into left field as president Biden called King Salman of Saudi Arabia this week rather than his son, the de-facto leader of Saudi Arabia.

    Here is the correction from June 23, 2015, that “The Washington Post” put out after one their Pulitzer Prize journalists apparently misinterpreted his assignment:

    Correction: This article has been amended to correct an earlier, unverified characterization of King Salman’s mental health. The article’s assertion that King Salman was “widely believed … to suffer from dementia’’ was too speculative and unsubstantiated to meet The Post’s standards for publication. The Royal Court of Saudi Arabia, through its lawyers, has asserted to The Post that King Salman is “most certainly not suffering from dementia or any other kind of mental impairment.’’

  16. And yep ray dagolio is now sending his hippy commune into crypto . Greed knows no end . Or necessity .

  17. Dude. You ever have this happen. Sorry, I’m gonna start writing today. I will write something up about it. I sold the last house I owned 10 years ago. Paid for the big wedding and shit with the ex. Aka Ms. Divine. they all cosmic names. I dont name them. it just comes to me. Later be the only person I never want to see for as long as I live. She is ruthless af. That chick hurt more any bruised and broken bones I ever got from my step father as child. She was relentless at hurting me. Which is weird I found an old anniversary card yesterday too. One year. I really loved her. that chick hurt to no end at the end. I thought I threa all that shit out and burned it all in a bonfire. I found a random anniversary card this morning.

    Anyway to the point. I get this random check 10 years after I sold a house I had mortgaged through Wells Fargo for a couple hundred dollars. I dont even know how they got my address. A letter saying. We audited your account with ys from 10 years ago and found we owed you couple hundred bucks. I got it in my box this morning.

    You ever have anything like that happen. Like almost 10 years after you sold a house?

    Uhem, thank you!
    I will experience another miracle having to do with money this week.

    Lmao.

  18. Hmmm…
    Pasteurizing (150F and up) or Boiling (212F and up)?
    What about fractionation (Fractional distillation)?
    Put the water in a vessel and pull a vacuum, even a partial vacuum on it. This lowers the vapor pressure by however much the atmospheric pressure is lowered. Then the temp of boiling is lowered.
    Impurities stay in the pot, the clean water comes over.
    Then to further purify, factionate in a column filled with inert material (glass chips, copper chips, steel, not Aluminum or lead of course, which the vapor has to heat in order to pass through without condensing. So, more bad stuff condenses and washed back down through the column and the “fraction” that comes over is further purified. It depends if what you want to separate is chemical or biological, and f the latter, what temperature kills it.
    Cryptosporidium is so resistant to stuff that only filtration takes it out.
    Oilman will recognize the typical separation tower that separated the gasoline from the diesel from the lubricants etc. Not really hard to build, and requires a lot less heat.
    After talking to some of the craft brewers at various beer halls, and touring some of the distilleries in Kentucky it comes to my attention that the same fabricators that will build that facilities for a small brewer, a which is also the front in for a small distiller (think the garage sized units in Walt’s Breaking Bad set up) have in their catalogues some “home sized 5 gallon systems. These can be ordered up and stored away for all kinds of future use.
    Migiht be something to add to the prepper list.

    • “home sized 5 gallon systems. These can be ordered up and stored away for all kinds of future use.
      Migiht be something to add to the prepper list.”

      The pasteurizer we have only does two gallons.. I have a one gallon milk can.. our cream separator is an electric table top.. I have been contemplating getting a hand crank table top like the one my parents had..

  19. If I use my imagination to fill in the blanks, I would say ercot is an honorary position without real work but has some legal liability. None of the board can give a plausible explanation so they are bowing out. Whoever set up a system that shuts off utilities during record cold is probably still in power and sent out lawyers w/stfu orders. Just more joy from the state that has a railroad commission tell the oil drillers to flare more gas than the state uses. The facts don’t come out so I’m entitled to a conspiracy theory.
    Got a business for ya geo, set up a gas turbine on that flare gas, sell electricity to the wells and set up bitcoin mines with sat links. I’ll take my commission in oil, gas, bitcoin, or even cash, silver and gold.

      • BTDT – those multi fuel gen sets aint cheap by any stretch of the imagination.

        Was invested in a small company that makes multi fuel generators that can operate on “flare gas”. Oil companies in US were very reluctant to go to the trouble – when they could keep doing what they do – at no additional cost. The company was selling lots of units into overseas markets as I recall, and I sold my position once acceptable profit/gain was made. Crypto mining was not a thing at that time – but now things have changed..hmmm Thinking Razor blade/Coke business model – I will give the well operator free Use multi fuel generator – in return I run Crypto mining rigs off each one, and Own the Gensets as well..winna winna chikin dinna. U can have the “soft goods” and dry goods concession – need local Man to keep the Ho’s in line & working hard, and store well stocked..

      • The bordello, and perhaps “paid girlfriends” are about the only things that could increase demand and therefore useful work by the proles! It’s the one area that the USA never got right in recent history. Even Nevada never got the supply and price point right.

        It’s easier to get drugs than desirable female company(unless you’re Andy), especially if you’re far from home base.

  20. First you complain about too much cold and snow. Now you complain about ‘no more ice’? Well, statistically on average you are comfortable, then.

  21. “things will turn up and we will get one more run upward to carry us into 2022.”

    Phew.. I just can’t see how it can keep going up. It all looks extremely scary to this catfish at the bottom of the pond..

  22. I’m starting to view cryptos allegorically like PMs before FDR. My current ponder is: What if the gummint (or WTO) outlaws independent or decentralized cryptos, but offers a 60/90/180 day period when they may be converted to FRCs (Federal Reserve Cryptos)? In theory, this could free the deadpool and create a windfall for Congress to spend. I can’t figure out how the system could be manipulated such that an “asset” existing only on the ‘Net and with no intrinsic value, unlike PMs, could be governmentally monetized, but I’ll bet there are D.C. wonks who are working on it…

    • Nobody was converting at $58,000 per to BTC, why would any clear thinking individual ever convert their BTC. They are HODL’ed in cold storage. Ure money is becoming moar worthless with each passing day.

      Even with Ures new “precious” Domestic Terrorist Bill – which will unleash full on NAZI FASCISM in the USA – still cant convert BTC.
      Sorry but cant force Shceisse regards Crypto – U lost that war too, just like internet-see TOR, Distributed De-Centralization is the only way forward..Who Do you Trust ? DC pols?, Social Media Companies? Alphabet Agencies?

      Can U/anyone explain Intrinsic Value of precious metals ?
      does nothing
      just sits there
      does not earn interest
      does not pay a dividend
      sits in the dark/ground – just sits there
      beyond ornamental reasons ? Intrinsic value of the USD ?

      Wanna bet Core Dev are light years ahead of where DC wonks will ever be – dare say U have lost that war too..

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