Markets & Doughnuts +BTC 4K

“As you go through life, make this your goal:  Keep your eye on the doughnut, not on the hole.”  [old school wisdom]

The holes are?  Well, lemme see: Charlottesville, and the hype about follow-on places where idiots of all stripes can be gathered in.  Followers are everywhere if you find the right pied-piper.

North Korea seems to be in “chill” because (as we quietly pointed out earlier) there’s no manpower for warfare until the crops are all in.  When they rattle-up next (late fall, to early winter)?  Then it’s time to taken them seriously.

(Continues below)


Meantime, the handwringers don’t have much new to worry about, except that Showbiz 411 offers a “Report: Movie Box Office On Track for Lowest in 25 Years as Spielberg-Lucas “Blockbuster Implosion” Omen Prevails.”

This leads to a completely off-topic discussion:  Elaine and I have talking about my next books.  I will preview the first few chapters of the next non-fiction book “Dimensions Next Door: The Earth’s Simulation Framework” tomorrow for subscribers.

It’s an oddity in that I’m not sure anyone has written a non-fiction book in advance of a novel to explain the concepts in the upcoming fiction book (Grav – a David Shannon Adventure). 

But, in a way, it all relates to the problems of Hollywood.  See, there’s been a growing fascination with plot lines that don’t have broad, mass appeal.  Oh, sure, the odd gay film, the odd trans, the 50 (or are we up to 450?) Shades of whatever are flashes in the pan.

With the lack of wide-appeal content, I’m shocked that my first David Shannon novel (DreamOver: Action-Adventure on the Frontiers of Reality) wasn’t so much as even considered by screenwriters.  I’ll admit the appeal of a high tech geek and a stunningly rich (straight) wife in real adventures might seem boring to some… Hollywood hasn’t been in mass appeal mode often since Harrison (which runway did you say?) Ford did the Raiders series.

Damn shame…but it’s typical of the narrow-cast mentality. Another aspect of Divide and Conqueer: World of 36 bathrooms.

I’ve given up counting the news channels.  But Hollywood has gotten so damn preachy/marketing about the left’s agendas that they have forsaken good, clean adventure. Jason Bourne?  You bet.  James Bond?  Yep…good stuff. Chainsaws, axe murders, and kink-instead-of-think?  Not so interesting, especially if you’ve been a beat reporter and seen enough vics for a lifetime.

By the way, on things literary, the new Clive Cussler novel is due out on the 24th: Shock Wave is part of his Dirk Pitt series.

Hmmm…I see we’ve strayed to the hole, so back to the doughnut…

Data Data Everywhere…

Busy day for George McDuck. (If that doesn’t make sense, try re-reading the Monday column.)

First meaningful morsel is retail sales.  And, as always, we point out the doughnut here is auto sales:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $478.9 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.2 percent (± 0.9 percent) above July 2016. Total sales for the May 2017 through July 2017 period were up 3.9 percent (± 0.7 percent) from the same period a year ago.

The May 2017 to June 2017 percent change was revised from down 0.2 percent (± 0.5 percent)* to up 0.3 percent (± 0.2 percent). Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (± 0.5 percent) from June 2017, and up 4.3 percent (± 0.7 percent) from last year. Nonstore Retailers were up 11.5 percent (± 1.8 percent) from July 2016, while Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers were up 8.3 percent (± 1.9 percent) from last year.

Since retail drives everything, the market will likely overweight this compared to our next tidbit: The NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the NY Fed webpage reports even more glowing news:

Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fifteen points to 25.2, its highest level in nearly three years. The new orders index rose seven points to 20.6 and the shipments index edged up to 12.4, pointing to solid gains in orders and shipments. Delivery times continued to lengthen, and inventory levels moved lower. Labor market indicators pointed to an increase in employment and hours worked. Input prices rose at a faster clip than last month, while selling prices rose at a somewhat slower pace. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that firms were very optimistic about future conditions.

And then we have import and export prices to weigh.

Tomorrow, for subscribers to our premium service, we’ll have Housing Starts and the mid-week look at our charts that have done a more-than-passable job of navigating the Sea of Insanity so far.

Why, toss in the first five chapters of the non-fiction book on the border war between Science and Religion, and it should be worth far more than the 40-cents an issue investment.

Dear Janet Dept.

Please see the action of the German Constitutional Court:  The Germans are saying that the European Central Bank is acting illegally in their $2.3 trillion Euro asset purchase program.

What’s the real deal with you Central Banker buying up assets?

Yes, ma’am Chairper, with the Fed holding (how many trillion?  $4+ T is it?) in assets and now the EU buying up assets, there are some of us not-quite-conspiracy-minded economic wonks seeing a pattern here:

Central Banks buying assets and then renting back people’s lives to them.

Z’at ya’ll’s plan?  Bankers who don’t produce anything, but rents us our money, owning the whole freaking world?  Also seven trillion in banker assets now, we notice.

Beware the peeps with pitchforks.  A few are onto the game and it seems crooked…especially while printing up M1 at 10% plus rates while real growth is down around 2%, know what I mean?

Fringe Causes

Always a big field to plow:

Texas GOP rep wants Mueller to testify on Russia probe. Never happen.  The Swamp wants Trump gone and the more amicable Pence in.  It’s just taken ’em more time than they expected.    Fish!

Meantime, does this sound like the fifth column sounding off?  “Would a public that doesn’t approve of Trump follow him into war?

The Word Tomorrow

Garner Ted Armstrong?  Nope.  (You may be too young to remember…)

Juniper Research: Top 10 Disruptive Technologies in Fintech 2017. 

And What Does THIS Mean? Dept.

Artificial intelligence and blockchain companies partner to advance healthcare research.”

Since docs don’t prescribe or treat financial ailments, seems to me like potential for another unholy alliance forming to take your blockchain profits…but you know me:  Skeptical!

By the Way…

As I told you would happen in my “The Great Hesitation” report back in June, and how many times since?… “We could see Bitcoins pop through $4,000.”

Markets today were quoting $4,060 paper tulips per digital tulip this morning.

I won’t be the one to mention that paper is EMP-resistant but blockchains are not.  That’s the joy of tulip ownership, I suppose…

Dow opening up 50 for the McUre ducks.

20 thoughts on “Markets & Doughnuts +BTC 4K”

  1. I’m not sure that the American public would follow anyone into war. Few recent presidents would lead us into war though. Most would lead from behind, and just send kids to war.

    Wars have consequences. Most Americans realize that unless we’re about to get invaded, those consequences are unacceptable. I doubt the recent rabble-rousers of either side want to get involved in a real war where they have a near certainty of being seriously damaged or being killed.


      isn’t it funny.. that during the old days the kings and wealthy led everyone into battle now they and their families are exempt..
      instead huge bunkers (tombs) are built and stocked to house them if the battle comes to them..
      what gets me is other countries make plans and provisions to take care of the people in the usa we only make plans for those selected few.

      • we should be planning for community pulling together not what we are now.. a few years ago FEMA had the heads of communities make a set of emergency plans. our mayor asked my opinion I told him the same thing one man can stock food for a bit but he can’t be prepared for everything nor can he control those around him.. what needed to be done is make plans for the community who has this or that talent what do they do for hobbies hunt fish build electrician etc.. so at least our community has that built in the Emergency reponse plan.

  2. George – the delay on the war in Korea is not on the North Korean side. The delay is on the US side as stocks started to reflect the panic of a war last week. It’s the US and the west that have come to realize that a major shooting war is ‘bad for business.’ It is the US and the west that are in a very precarious economic position. The Norks are just plain poor and will not be impacted very much by a major market crash. In some ways, they hold the upper hand!

  3. George, What’s the deal? Are you still on your longstanding call that we are going to have the Mother of All Meltdowns starting around next week? Best, Mike.

  4. Long time ago, war used to be ‘good for business’ and rid societies of excess aggressive people – fought mostly by professional ‘warriors’. Epic stories were written of heroes and great battles.

    Currently however, with the development of weapons of mass destruction and ‘delivery systems’ such as airplanes, missiles, and submarines (stealthy, not seen as ‘up front’), vast communities of non-combatants can be slaughtered at the whim of leaders who have not experienced the deadliness of war.

    So what keeps a leader of a county from committing war – Ethics – intellect – love of humanity . . . but what if a leader does not evidence such abilities?

  5. There’s evidently more to blockchain tech than the supposed autonomy Bitcoin provides. TPTB seem to have a system ready to Hoover up everything around the world via blockchain SDRs and Bitcoin is part of it.

    Mmmmmm. I luuuuv a good conspiracy theory that curls the toes. How much can you hold in your hands, or closet, or barn and how far will it go when you can’t access your bank account any more? I think 7 Billion people are about to get eff’ed.

  6. At this moment in the smoke-and-mirror wars, it seems an understanding of war games is crucial and I’m thinking the media is keeping us in the dark. Tweets and bluster, will NK or won’t they attack? They have even sucked in George who is now predicting a time scale for the fireworks to start.
    If you step back a little you will see another picture. By now, it has become abundantly clear that KN has Guam firmly targeted and everyone is suitably shaking in their boots. So what does it mean? Could KN be acting as a proxy for China, telling the US to keep out of the South China Sea, even the Western Pacific? If I was POTUS I would be having second thoughts about ramping up the US military presence on that island, as it is likely to be wiped out in one move, and there goes half of the US Navy, or whatever. And China is laughing and merrily building up their atoll bases.
    All this sabre-rattling is just BS but behind it is China telling the US to keep out of its back yard.

    • Who made the PRC so powerful? The US consumer! We might as well save us a war and get annexed by the PRC as long as it’s a bargain. ;-)

  7. Interesting comment on movies. Maybe the propaganda mill (which is the definition of Hollywood from the get go) is currently bereft of “monetizeble” ideas given the state of the eunwashed reading altnet sites. Enter Google who has declared they will clean up any “false doctrines” (AKA “bugs”) out there and lead us to the Orwellian Promised Land. Do I hear a Hallalujah?

    • I will use all the LLL in Hallelujah and say lots of laughs leave us alone please lots of laughs again

  8. Lessee, here…

    Let’s fight! Here, you take the stick, I’ll take the .44 magnum, and we’ll see who wins.


    Mr. Kim is crazy, he’s not stupid.

    DPRK will not initiate a shooting war with the United States until, and unless, Mr Kim has at least a .357 of his own; i.e. they have a reasonable expectation of defeating us.

    To rephrase this so it is perfectly clear:

    North Korea will not intentionally touch-off a war against the U.S.A. UNTIL they honestly believe they can destroy the United States and conquer, subjugate, enslave, and execute its population.

    North Korea MAY reopen the three-ringer with the South at any time, IF their Chinese handlers believe they can suck us into a major time and money sink.

    North Korea would love to nuke Japan off the map. The Choson are a proud warrior race. They didn’t like being Japanese slaves and they have neither forgiven nor forgotten.

    DPRK isn’t going to open any fireworks show. They will probably launch more missiles, and may test another nuke, just to “provoke” (scare) us, but like Iran, they will not take any overt military action until such time they believe they WILL win a war against the United States. This doesn’t mean one of their test-fires might not land in downtown Osaka and trigger a war.

    NK got its start in the ballistic missile business back in the 1980s when Kim Il Sung negotiated the purchase of obsolete Soviet ICBMs. They’ve been trying to reverse that Soviet tech ever since, with a (so far) less-than-stellar degree of success. By 2004, NK could, in theory, hit Madison, Wisconsin with a latitudinally-launched ICBM. In practice, even today, they’d be lucky to hit Adak one time in five.

    In the past week, I’ve heard crap like “OMG, North Korea is building nukes,” “North Korea may be able to hit Seattle or ‘Frisco,” and “Korea is working on miniaturizing its nukes…” SERIOUSLY, does no one EVER read, any more? (Ans. Doesn’t matter; the MSM is presenting doomporn in scaretype, in a desperate attempt to delay their complete obsolescence…)

    The facts are: North Korea CAN hit any spot in CONUS that’s north or west of Atlanta, with a missile and nuclear warhead they presently possess, but the odds of their successfully doing so at this point in time are probably about the same as George drawing two cards to fill an inside straight flush. DPRK isn’t going to invest any serious resources in making 50kg warheads, until they master the ability to make ballistic missiles which don’t shatter upon staging.

    As to the U.S. nuking North Korea — won’t happen, even if they did nuke us. DPRK’s WMD program, and sheltered chambers for the Supreme People’s Assembly and emergency barracks for their military are nuke-proof. An American nuke would kill off North Korea’s “useless eaters,” and the plume would do no favors for the South Koreans and Japanese, whilst affecting NK’s political structure and military capacity not one whit.

    IMO Messrs. McCain and Graham would love a nice, symmetrical war, like Korea, ‘cuz they’re not smart enough to know how to fight an asymmetrical one. I refuse to grant warhawks like the “twin fools” (and Hillary BTW) the time of day, and refuse to pay attention to a media which is SO STUPID and moneygrubbing that it regards such as these, as experts or PWSBLT (people who should be listened to…)

  9. There is always Costa Rica,eco paradise,stable government,no standing army and away from fallout patterns,pura vida

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