Yes: This means Ewe.
Back in 2000 – when the Internet Bubble was blowing up – I noticed several things (even wrote them down) so as not to get “fooled again” by the Financial Crowd. My Lessons?
- A new high in a single (or couple) of indexes does NOT mean all is well.
- Beware of “Faddish Accounting.”
Some Things Never Change
While the (liberal, Biden-loving) media repeat daily headlines about “Record Stock Prices” – it really depends which stock or index.
Because in our Larger View of things we’re still a ways from equaling the February 12th levels.
To update you – using our Aggregate Index approach to markets – here’s where we stand this morning (based on preopen futures pricing):
- The Dow is up 2.88% from Feb. 12.
- The S&P 500 is down 0.25%.
- The NASDAQ? Down 5.66%
So, if you bought TSLA stock Feb. 12 and gave $816 a share for it, and you too are wondering about records since it closed Wednesday at about $668, “Where’s these Records I keep hearing about?”
Shills, touts, and a financial press with its head up its assets – unable to bite the hand feeding it – have no particular interest in wide-spectrum views. Because those, dear Reader, don’t pay the bills.
Ads for gunslinger trading outfits, on the other hand, are important. If you tell people the The Casino is Crooked! (and on fire from printing money!) people wouldn’t play. Adverts wouldn’t pay, and the brightest of sheep wouldn’t stay.
Not that “first look, first trade” trading isn’t fun…we do a bit of it ourselves from time to time.
One Picture Tells It All
‘zis look like a record market to you? (red is today, blue track was 1929):
As you can see, we are ALMOST back to where things were on Feb. 12. But, like the old infantryman saying goes, “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” (The more TSLA you’re holding, the more this will make sense!)
Dinnertime on the Titanic
Even my consigliere is paying attention. A new Aggregate high, tomorrow or next week, would re-set the 55-calendar/37-trading day clock. He’s got a moon phase theory dating back to Steve Puetz work (in (and among others) The Unified Cycle Theory: How Cycles Dominate the Structure of the Universe and Influence Life on Earth, $49 Amazon). Or his additional postulates in (Universal Cycle Theory: Neomechanics of the Hierarchically Infinite Universe, $60 Amazon).
If you’re asking “Neomechanics…wasn’t he in The Matrix?” all hope is lost. On the other hand, if neomechanics of a hierarchically infinite Universe brings the specter of circularly referenced hierarchies (from which would spawn spiral calendar works), then hope’s intact.
In fact, if you’ve wolfed down Chris Carolan’s The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events ($26, Amazon) you may find yourself in the same quandary as the rest of us: If the calendar is both spiral in form (Carolan) and neomechanically hierarchical (Puetz), how does that wire-up in [real] nominal world?
And this simplifies to the only honest question left: Can we make money with it?
Weekly Job Claims
The next financial psycho-session is the weekly new unemployment claims. These have been turned into a media circus because over time, everyone runs out of benefits, so the number of “new filers” should decline from the Peak of Crisis. But that’s only part of the fun.
The rest is (ewe-training) repeating the “lies oft told” about seasonal adjustments. So we dispense with the hype and go right to the not-seasonally-adjusted portion of the report just out. Because the guvvermint PR types call it:
“In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week’s revised level.”
We – ignoring the seasoning see:
Still – lingers the Big Ugly – “How many have fallen off or run out of bennies?” Dow futures up over 100, our skepticism notwithstanding.
Yeah, maybe a fresh high and next month might fit moon cycles better. But the week ain’t over and the new Moon is this weekend. (Said Farmer Ure who will be planting Saturday morning…)
Fed balance sheet after the close. Producer Prices tomorrow – be alert to an unstable herd depending how much inflation is in there.
So, Overall, Then?
Here’s a sobering thought for you. Let’s look at the Association of American Railways weekly traffic report, shall we?
“For the first nine weeks of 2021, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 1,987,433 carloads, down 5.7 percent from the same point last year; and 2,471,856 intermodal units, up 8.6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first nine weeks of 2021 was 4,459,289 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 1.7 percent compared to last year.”
Well, if we have 8% fewer workers and consumption is up for the year, are any of those jobs coming back? Sure, of course, some will.
But is it (just wildly possible at the margins) that we’re already undergoing compound effects of widespread ERP system adoption and automated manufacturing and (dare I utter this?) robotics?
See, the DATA is telling us “We need fewer workers – even with the collapse reported this month in productivity – so how do we save the financialization game on the one hand, while letting everyone sink into the cesspool of excess consumption?
I mean in a world where no one can type as fast as an Pentium I anyway? Just thought I’d ask…
Calling the Mouton’s
Don’t be sheepish – admit you’re hooked on useless bullshit media. running stories like:
Woke Joke du jour: “Prince Williams says U.K. royals “very much not a racist family”.
Pelosi et al in hiding still. As “McCarthy asks Pelosi when Capitol will return to pre-pandemic normal for proxy voting, tours, masks and more.” I wouldn’t get too upset. This is how failing coups isolate in (other) third world nations. Send ’em more razor wire.
And is it really “news” that “Jennifer Garner is proud to ‘look like a woman who’s had three babies’“? I mean when Elaine’s had six boys and not a stretch mark? No idea why CNN hasn’t called.
SloJoe watch: Biden set to address nation on anniversary of COVID-19 pandemic. Did you know March 11 is the “anniversary?”
Well, it is…and it isn’t.
“COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020 by the World Health Organization.Aug 25, 2020.” Donald Trump declared it a National Emergency on March 12, but it was already a pandemic.
Otherwise, how could we possibly have written the column “5W Friday: Work, Wuhan, Witness, and Woo-Woo” on February 7, 2020?
No, this is not a virus “anniversary.” Just more made-up political power-tripping, memory invocation (lead to followers programming), but mostly cheap pandering for ad sales.
Frankly, as anniversaries go, try today as the birthday back in 1903 of Lawrence Welk(a), American accordionist and orchestra leader (Lawrence Welk Show), born in Strasburg, North Dakota (d. 1992). We’ll circle-back to the Lemon Sisters later.
How can people swallow phrases like “anniversary of pandemic” and not lose faith in the future? We forget our pasture.
Besides All This?
Only two stories really matter around here:
- How soon might you receive a $1,400 stimulus check? and
- US Warship Transits Taiwan Strait After Admiral’s China Invasion Warning.
Other than that?
The realities of Life are:
Weather: (Cloudy and 78 here in Texas, possible blizzard up in Colorado today.)
Food: (Steak and eggs for breakfast, cantaloupe thereafter.)
“Did you feed the cat?”
Obviously, brain shutdown has initiated…
Write when you get rich,