Housing Prices Rocket

On track to be up 10% for CY 2020 at this rate.

The press release scoop:

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Climbed to 9.5% in November

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.5% annual gain in November, up from 8.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.8%, up from 7.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 9.1% year-over-year gain, up from 8.0% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in November. Phoenix led the way with a 13.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.7% increase and San Diego with a 12.3% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2020 versus the year ending October 2020.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The U.S. National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in November. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%. In November, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before and after seasonal adjustment.

ANALYSIS

“The trend of accelerating home prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its sixth month with November’s emphatic report,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index gained 9.5% relative to its level a year ago, accelerating from October’s 8.4% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 8.8% and 9.1%, respectively) also rose more rapidly in November than they had done in October. The housing market’s strength was once again broadly-based: all 19 cities for which we have November data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in November than they had gained in the 12 months ended in October.

“As COVID-related restrictions began to grip the economy last spring, their effect on housing prices was unclear. Price growth decelerated in May and June before beginning a steady climb upward. November’s report continues that acceleration in a particularly impressive manner. The National Composite last matched this month’s 9.5% growth rate in February 2014, more than six and a half years ago.

Housing data price chart

All of which looks grand until you wonder how the 55% increase in M1 and 25% increase in M2 impact PPP pricing.

But that’s too much work for a tired old many…

George@Ure.net

20 thoughts on “Housing Prices Rocket”

  1. No inflation there …… No inflation anywhere. A friend of my daughters had a $500,000 home built in east Austin 5 yrs ago – just went on the market for $1.4mm.

    • That amount of gain is more than some people make in their entire working lives. I personally think it is SAD … since the average working person in many places is being priced out of ever owning a place of their own where that QUICK high tech growth, with it’s consequence of rapid housing price increases, occurs.

      People around here couldn’t believe it when I was saying I did NOT want Amazon to put the HQ2 here after we made the original cut. IMO all it would have done if we got HQ2 was to quickly price out of the housing market everyday people, the people that actually make this place a great place to live.

      As it is our housing prices are still going up solidly because of the large number of other high tech jobs coming to town (we suddenly became more desirable to the high tech world after we “passed” Amazon’s “qualifying” test) which is driving overall urban growth and causing a housing shortage. I just shake my head at how much housing prices have gone up here over the last 3 years, particularly this past year, … but know it would have been much much worse if Amazon HQ2, or even a much scaled down version of it, such as Nashville is experiencing, had come to town.

      I am NOT anti growth of high tech jobs … I am just anti QUICK growth of high tech jobs because of the localized distortion they cause when that happens. We have had 40 years of nice steady growth here, as high tech jobs have replaced our tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs (which are now down to virtually nil), which is fine with me. That steady replacement of jobs has made my city a nice livable city. A wonderful side benefit is that it has kept those with a “Left Coast Mentality” mostly out of our urban environment.

      • “it is SAD … since the average working person in many places is being priced out of ever owning a place of their own”

        Amen to that..the daughter and her husband bought a house.. their mortgage payment is more than we gross…

      • 1.4 mil is about 31 thou a year for a working life of 45 years.

        That works out to about $15/hr before taxes.

        Most people who make 15 bucks an hour don’t live in neighborhoods that have houses this expensive.

        Within 5 miles of the 1.4 million dollar house I bet you can find prices that someone making 15 bucks an hour could afford. Along with a $2000 toyota that gets 35 mpg for commuting that extra 5 minutes, I mean miles.

        Is it really that hard for people to figure out where they are in the grand scheme of things? Or is it easier to rely on strawman logic to avoid anything that smacks of effort. Kind of like the woke crowd that uses apple products and wears nike sneakers. Enslaving the world with wokeness, proving it’s easier to be woke than avoid enslaving kids around the globe for their convenience.

    • As an aside my daughter bot a 2 bedroom remodeled mid-century modern on a small lot with a pool about 8 months ago for $475,000 she tells similiar houses in her subdivision are offered at $585,000 with no pool and not remodeled.

  2. Yep, had 4 offers in northeast Austin on our house in 12 hours flat. all were significantly more than we paid originally. We took it, and got the heck out of there.

  3. george
    i need the name or contact for the teenager who helps people with on-line success. i have a friend who is an emergency medical flight nurse that has stories of working in africa and alaska that need to find a way into the world. shake yer boots kind.

    thanks
    stiks

  4. Soooooo… Is this a good time to sell, then possibly rent until the next housing crash comes, and then buy on the cheap? Or is the general consensus that prices will continue to rise in the near term?

    • The last housing crash was a two year slow motion affair for anyone paying attention. Ahem. I was a reader back then too. I got out in 2006, and the local market only rose a little before it crashed in 2008-9. Thank you George.

      You are already paying attention, start to look for signs that it’s happening again, then find a sucker to take your house at the top of a sagging market. This works great if the bubble bursts the same way, not from some massive calamity.

  5. I sent you the next Phase of the experiment. So far here, it’s beating offering information alone by 800% That, is a sad state of affairs.

  6. ohh and dagolio ie ray dalio ,talking about inequality !!! bit of facist propaganda being urged by the old fart to talk up more !!! thats salty moriarty for all my depraving calling me critics . you know the ure foundation of psyoptic economics . and people cant understand me ? sheesh . maybe i am old world common bloke

  7. Around me the issue is developers buying up old homes that used to have 3-4 apartments that were “reasonably” priced and converting them into 2-3 $800,000 condos. The town of 15,000 that I live in has lost over 500 apartments in the past three years.

  8. Comrades,

    One trusts this does not step on Marx’ toes as one treads lightly about the public domain of reality. Yes you have perhaps read that Mr. Trump’s daughter and family planned to leave behind their Chilean billionaire-owned DC rental abode in December for a $30 million vacant lot in the exclusive “Billionaire Bunker” enclave on Miami’s Indian Springs Island. Although the vendor, he of a famous Latin song catalogue, had in years past referred to Mr. Trump as “a clown”, the sale apparently closed amicably with a generous discount from the original listing price. Miami msm notes that 79% of 53 island voters chose Mr. Trump. An interesting offshoot of it all was mention that Florida has no state income tax unlike New York. It seems Mr. Trump switched his tax residency from New York to Florida…last September? His polls were right?

    Speaking of moving goalposts, in other island and buccaneering tax news , it’s Brady in the Superbowl again.

  9. North Houston here. Houses in the neighborhood are selling before the sign goes up. Next door sold in under a week with two offers at ask.

  10. “The price of a home goes up but the value of human lives keeps depreciating.”

    Supply vs. Demand, in other words there are too many of sorts, who will bite each other in the ass.

    • Too many of sorts … all trying to appease the hand(s) that feed them, while unknowingly they could feed themselves. Ignorance is a b*tch. So much unnecessary chaos, but like a fairy tail or legend, we need a true hero to rise up … but until then, we try like hell to save ourselves who do have some knowledge.
      Have a Blessed Day, Choices.

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