The “20-Something” Cycle

Today, hardcore economics with a side of woo-woo.  Futures were down hard ahead of the Fed rate pronouncement this afternoon.

Won’t mince words here except to remind all readers that we are in a period of extreme risk when we look at how the run from 2009 to now has paralleled the 1921 to 1929 market blow-off.

Even the crypto’s are in trouble, though we gave you our targets earlier.  With BTC down to $30,897, our call for thousands lower is looking less absurd than some virtualistas would otherwise have believed.

A few headlines and then we’re into the ChartPack, the cycle (which is very interesting) and the woo-woo which blew my socks off…

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30 thoughts on “The “20-Something” Cycle”

  1. a good article on epoch times…

    I actually think we are at the point where things are going to start falling apart.. not only with the economy.. our infrastructure is totally shot, we are spending more than we make on other people and their infrastructure than our own needs.. why rebuild their house when ours is in a bad need of repair…. and as anyone that has gone through hard times.. when things go down it seems that everything else starts to follow.. it becomes a chain reaction..

    • “at the point”

      IMHO the point of impact was George W. Bush “abandoning free-market principles to save the free-market system”.

      • I think it was more during the Reagan admin.. during Carter he wanted to equal it all up.. but congress tossed him and the middle class under the bus.. and reagan rather than let us go through the correction dumped all the social security funds into bailing out banks and pushing us along ..The way I see it each president after that has put a band aide on the situation.. now its a gapping wound and the ship is sinking fast…tossing the stimulus on it will only push the noodle along a little further..

      • LOB,

        For sure. Reagan is a fine start point. Nixon another. Mid 1930’s when gold was confiscated and the base unconstitutional Government ecosystems were created is another.

        Then I start seeing Adam Smith’s invisible hand because I don’t know the details. Post First Industrial Revolution (1760/1840) Andrew Jackson paid off the national debt.

        The Second Industrial Revolution required free people for willing workers and banking for large scale projects. Debt is required. The Civil War happened between the two periods coincidentally all people became free and large scale banking was introduced, National Bank Act 1863/64.

        I think the heartbeat of consolidation goes back to the Roman Republic, when earth’s inhabitants willingly gave control to the bureaucratic system.

    • loob, epoch times makes money from your Trump Victimization Cult (with nothing to offer besides mass hysteria/paranoia), also that ebaums link had something too graphic and pervy the last time you posted it, so I won’t click your link. (revenue increased from $4 million 2016 to $16 million 2019)

      Your neediness to validate your Trump Victimization state is quite obvious, usually at least 6 times per day (you are the biggest poster on the site), you need to have your ‘the sky is falling because the Democrats will destroy us’ freak out.

      • “‘the sky is falling because the Democrats will destroy us’ freak out.”

        Unfortunately…It isn’t just the Democrats…
        I fear the manipulation by donations from special interests is equal among all the political parties..

        why should they get any donations for voting either way.. I believe they should write the bills.. ( they would be much simpler) and read them.. then debate the issues then vote what their heart says yea or nae.. I could care less if they read and understood either way they vote..
        Not vote for an issue just because someone bought them a thousand dollar bottle of booze, got them laid, provided a plane for their personal travels or sent them to the Caribbean for a weekend..
        DJT wasn’t totally victimized either.. he was attacked non stop and still is.. ( turn you tv on and listen to that crap) but he was sucked in by their nonstop attacks and let his ego show. I was a registered Democrat up until the nonstop attacks..spending money for nothing..

        time will tell if its going to fall but it won’t be the sky.. it will be the economy… you can only print so much..being at the bottom of society I can tell you for a fact that there isn’t a blue sky for cash if there was than fifteen an hour would not be an issue.. just take a look at Argentina and Zimbabwe..

  2. “sticking point is the demand fors $15 an hour min-wage.”

    Raising the minimum wage has always been just a political ploy.. Minimum wage varies by region or city…
    Take the garden city of San Francisco.. where poverty level is at 89 dollars an hour.. and rent starting at thirty dollars an hour take home income..
    the same thing for DC.. take home income has to be forty dollars an hour for a wage earner to get..
    even in our area.. you need ten dollars an hour take home just to look at an apartment.. if you don’t have the credit rating then you are forced to seek out slum lords where they charge more.. double that..
    It sounds good.. because there are rural area’s where you can buy a home for cheap.. these places are usually a great deal of distance from a regional area…
    Daycare… taking that into consideration. utilities etc.. in some bigger cities you see more than one person renting a place together.. when I was in DC we had twelve renting a space in the was the only way to be able to rent all expenses were split equally..

  3. “Bet you can’t guess what we could grow besides trees around here?”

    CORN ? LOL just kidding..

    I think it should be grown everywhere. One of gods miracle plants..

  4. C’mon FUDster,

    pullbacks are healthy – a good thing for fun da mentals.
    As any engineer, builder, carpenter..can tell U – going straight up in a parabolic fashion is untenable, guaranteed failure – without a solid foundation/support, gotz to build a solid base.

    This is one of reasons BTC is so much fun – as it is the only real mark-to-market asset left on the playing field..TheAliensInCharge have only been able to spin up one futures market/tool to manipulate BTC price, so far – and it is only good for about $10k up&down max.
    On the other hand – Ure’s fav fellow bad, tainted,greedy soul – lil timmy g. permanently bent the american taxpayer over backwards in 2009 – the market only goes up since -plunge protection team dont cha know. The expression of darkness doesnt really matta much, does it ? Buy the Dip!

    G -cant help but wonder if Ure might be able to source some dilithium crystals over in the realms? Being as how they are semi permeable to both Deuterium & Anti -Deuterium and provides internal chamber for a controlled matter-anti matter reaction, focusing the energy so it can be harnessed and used for power.
    U can use those crystals to power the new Gure 2000 – anti gravity urban cruiser.

    • Sheesh Crash…Do you wanna discover the secret to time travel?
      Go into any shopping center see a cute lady and gently walk up behind her and straighten out the back side of her outfit..
      She’ll knock you into next week or her husband or boyfriend. Instant time travel…
      The journey through time may be a painful transition and you may wake up in a hospital.. but no chemicals would be involved.. lol lol

  5. Just like most items the Federal managers do, they have no constitutional authority to define wages. If they have the authority to establish a minimum wage, I assume they also can establish a maximum wage? I could certainly imagine a Sanders type candidate trying to pass a cap on earnings (all those nasty rich). We all know instinctively that minimum wage laws have a general negative impact on low skilled or new entrants into the job market. Data has shown these laws most impact young black men entrance into the job market. There is no way a person in rural mississippi cleaning up a job site is worth 15$. So you do away with that position and have your more skilled people wasting some of their time to do trivial tasks. We are supposed to be free, but at the most fundamental level of valuing my own labor, I am not allowed to freely negotiate. We are in a clown world.

    • I agree. Most people haven’t a clue what it was initially intended for, let alone the effects of such a policy. I’ve even seen people in these comments claim that minimum wage is supposed to ensure people earn a livable wage for their careers.

      It was intended for no skilled, no experienced people ENTERING the work force…i.e. underage kids with a permit, high school grads, and those without education but a willingness to work. There are too many people out there that feel a person should not only be able to live comfortable off minimum wage (also minimum output), but also buy houses and raise families on it. There are literally 2 PROFESSIONAL income households that can’t live like that in many places in this country.

      And if we’re being honest…minimum wage keeping up with inflation and cost of living today should be at about $35/hr. But that also seems ludicrous for positions that take a matter of hours if not minutes to show someone how to do.

      • You cannot pump your own gas in the state of Oregon. I was told it was to “create jobs”. All gas stations, aside from a few very rural areas, are full service. Well, someone pumps your gas at least, seldom do you get someone to clean a windshield, and definitely no one checking your oil.

        So the state needed to put people to work. Of all things the towns and communities could have used…gas pumpers was their answer. Gas pumpers (min wage earners) in some areas of Oregon make as much money as someone working retail, customer service, hell I’ve seen trade jobs in rural areas start barely above minimum wage.

  6. More woo woo from the equine world:On the day that Biden halts the construction,Trump’s Wall won at Miami Ohio reacetrack.I’ve been doing great betting on these.Too bad that Biden will soon run out of EO’s.

  7. I’m more confident Silver is crashing. Premiums rose overnight.

    Silver seller spots prices don’t sync and now $606.73 for a roll. Premium each is about $4.91.

    Long ago Prechter said when the markets go over the falls short may not be paid. Look to GME.

  8. Things falling apart.

    Multiple sources are showing that Antifa riots in Portland are being blamed on Republicans.

    Footage gathered by Andy Ngo and posted on twitter shows black clad Antifa members causing the damage at the Dem HQ.

    Local news, and apparently CNN is still going with “Republican rioters target dem HQ” as the narrative.

    It’s starting to show up in other narratives, in news reports, with a bare mention something like “continued riots by trump supporters targeting biden”. No attribution needed.

    This is how things fall apart. There is no press any more. The opposition can easily paint their opposition for the acts they carry out. How far will this go. Killings are not far off. The antifa flag has an AK 47 on it now. All it takes is one mistaken mention of right wingers and the new narrative will begin, never to be corrected. This is how you build support for unpopular new laws.

    The Q phenomenon is ground zero. Clearly a psy-op along the lines of operation Trust. And Q will never ever be called what it was. Of course, it doesn’t help that so many people fell for it, and criticism is accurately directed to those people. You f*cking idiots have tarnished your movement beyond repair.

    • You are correcto!

      Now, here we go. All planned and following quickly to script or is it agenda.

      Trump supporters have all been changed in a twinkling of an eye to domestic terrorists which now requires a domestic terrorism department and laws.

      Antifa, BLM, all robbers, looters, rioters, and criminal left elements are off the ticket, the responsible ticket, as in ‘holding the bag.’

      Gee, wasn’t that easy taking us from a Republic to a Democracy to a Dictatorship in, oh, let’s see, 120 years?

    • Locally the elites from both parties use social media directed children, educators, holy men, medical personnel, retail clerks and street people as soldiers against their victims, with social media gang stalking. If you don’t want to sell out to wealthy psychopaths and their sociopathic entourages, then the elites have ways to motivate or remove by proxy.

      The action on the left coast takes the gang stalking a step further. While here, lawmen are dispatched with never ending false complaints through officious dispatch, with utterly no recourse to the victim; on the left coast, the leftists dispatch their own soldiers to do the job. Here, the elites use proxy stalking and officious gas-lighting to intimidate and hasten removal; on the left coast, the left uses raw muscle and arson to mark and claim turf for the elites.

      This is all about control and possession of the land. The realtors and lawyers skim profit, regardless of the who and why of the sale. Realtors, lawyers and lawmen are not your friend or protectors. As to the identity of the looting elites, and the cover stories and identities of their soldiers, it varies by geographic area. This business model is now firmly established as THE method to expand the personal elite empires, nationwide. The name of the game is looting by the elites. The soldiers are just a means to implement the business model. If you are looking to be saved by the R’s or the D’s, you are just fooling yourself. Your loss will be someone else’s gain in their elite business model.

      Locally, property seizure by private companies is also in play, via imminent domain. Corporations are awarded franchises to seize land and displace owners by the state, in support of a long laundry list of projects of dubious public benefit. Again, the corporations are soldiers for elites who conceal their participation.

      This is all the equal opportunity version of ethnic hate cleansing as a business model. The partisan gangs are all enablers. Don’t think you are immune, because you aren’t, no matter how far from the urban centers you move. The elites covet urban, suburban and rural land equally, and have equal contempt for you and your property rights. The destruction of the American middle class was just a stepping stone to elite land acquisition.

      I have seen and experienced all of this with my own eyes and ears. Your turn is coming. The civil war you fear started decades ago, and is in it’s final stages. You lost. The election propaganda and results mean nothing.

  9. Get out answer some Craigslist ads, go buy something from the people across town ,get to see ,get the feel of the real thing. But if you believe in what the news is telling you then stay home in your little cave, and watch everything change when you come out of your cave as the ripples go up and down as you believe the sky is falling, but let me give you hope the sky is not falling and within the blink of an eye everything that you were scared of you you will laugh at how you were believing something that shortens your breath but now you have hope again because you can really breathe breathe deep change as well as receive the change that’s coming your way,
    May all beings be lovingly fulfilled may all beings be financially fulfilled may all beings be readily fulfilled so be it,,,,, in the meantime get out there and help the people who are in need ,your payback will be tenfold

    • “May all beings be lovingly fulfilled may all beings be financially fulfilled may all beings be readily fulfilled so be it,,,,, in the meantime get out there and help the people who are in need ,your payback will be tenfold”

      Amen to that Bryce…. I can tell you from experience just how rewarding helping someone that truly needs it is to.. you know instantly that you did the right thing. except for a couple of times where it was unavoidable, I never let anyone know who it is that was the one.. . and it has come back to me as well.. my disaster last weekend for one I was so worried about it…. then who would have thought that out of the blue…. and seriously what are the odds of that happening….

  10. “From this – when the present recession (and maybe depression, we’ll see…) wraps up (earliest 2023, but that leaves a potential trough war with China over Taiwan) and from there, the simple inter-recession period looks very much like a seventh year even.”

    That’s adorable! You believe China won’t assimilate Formosa until 2023+?

    IF China is going to absorb Taiwan, early 2021 is THE TIME to do it, and the action by which the Reich took Poland is the way: A blitz, a 3-day all-out war, then an established fact of possession. We’d not be able to intervene if we wanted, because it would be over before Slow-Mo even got word of it. Once China possesses the Island, they’ll be entrenched until the Chinese people revolt (which ain’ta gonna happen for another ~900 years…)

    • “when the present recession (and maybe depression, we’ll see…)”

      My fear is as it sinks… those in power will see the option that has been the old standby action to be taken to rebuild…
      this time though as I look at it from my position.. I see the global military setting of a chess move of the poison pawn trap. Where the third world countries with resources that those that want the insatiable more have signed agreements with the other world leaders to be their allies to rush to their aid in the event of a situation….
      Only time will tell which way they will go.. my hope is they decide to stick the funds back into our country to strengthen it rather than give it all away..

  11. “There was a kind of door in the side of the ship (which itself was several hundreds of feet long). Through this, “tenders” and go-ashore boats could enter and be out of the weather (rain and heat). It was a neat design.”

    I doubt any Big Water freighters do, but there is (or was, anyway) a class of Great Lakes freighter which sports a huge cargo door, amidships. I’ve seen ships, and paintings at Great Lakes museums… Perhaps someone has (or will) filched the idea to launch tenders and runabouts for “day excursions” from a cruise ship?

  12. I think I am beginning to understand MMT, unfortunately.
    Is Dick Cheney right that deficits don’t matter ?
    Like a Monopoly game, are all debts forgiven when the game is over ?
    Does the game get played as it is until the game ends ?
    Is the Millennial r/wallstreetbets forcing the question ?
    Do we just start a new game, shortly ? (he said short), no pun intended.
    Thanks to the reddit’s gamble, I am beginning to glimpse behind the curtain…


    • Bear in-mind, the only difference between a neocon and a leftist is whether or not they believe the ruling authority should be by-nation or worldwide (respectively.) Both political ideologies are authoritarian-socialist, and neither is compatible with our Constitution, as it was written and intended.

      The only time a deficit doesn’t matter is when it is created to mitigate an emergency or unforeseen negative event, and could be eliminated within [not more than] two budget cycles. When you consider our national debt, then lump the deficit into it as both a liability and a refusal to pay down the debt, well, read one of George’s columns on the “magic of compounding.”

  13. Thank you for sharing your young-minded dreams as the world drifts gently into “The Theory of the Leisure Class”. Another Thorstein appears to have made his second fortune courtesy of members of Ollie Garx’ family headed by the reputed Resident at Cape Idokopas hailing from the birthplace of Ayn Rand.

    No further sacrifice from Indian Springs should be necessary now that Pops has allegedly cleared the great flagship to leave port this first quarter and seek plunder anchored at Cuidad de Panamá. Sailing past the shadow of the JW Marriott Panama there shall be no landing as did the heathen at Lindisfarne in 793 a.d. Supply is planned by tender only. Leave the bitcoin fall where it may; let the hunters lead one to the prey?

    Break biscuit with a tot of rum. The Jolly Roger is underway!

  14. What’s wrong with shorting ? Why do facists buy gold ? Get richer off slaves ? Listen veges f George short

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