I spent the better part of a half-hour last night snickering. Not that I’m any kind of whiz on cryptos, mind you. It’s just that our outlooks are coming in just like the “fixed horse in the sixth” that wasn’t going to make its feed bill for the season. Coincidence or design, is it?
While Bitcoin has been clawing its way back from disaster ($37,451 when inspected earlier) the coinsters have been moving on.
Because Bitcoin – which had the undeniable advantage of a “hard cap” meaning only 16-million-odd could ever be found – had become a bit of an embarrassment to the shill and tout crowd.
Fact is, the amount of energy used mining is a terrible problem. Unlike investing in a farm, or building a home with capital – where there is residual value – in cryptos, when the lights and/or web go out, the whole game is down the shitter.
One of our most knowledgeable posters as much as admitted it in a recent comment as he admitted the “hard capped BTC was losing favor”:
“Ethereum and other cryptos are moving away from Proof of Work, the original algorithm in blockchain technology, toward a newer concept called Proof of Stake. In short, the upgrade will mean that participants are incentivized with a reward, paid in ether, to remain online and keep the network in check. “
This may not seem HUGE to anyone (except a nutter-in-the-woods) but if you’re very precise in your thinking, you’ll read it as? Leaving the “hard crypto concept” (capped) and migrating to something that smells remarkably like government fiat/paper policy: Make it up on the fly.
When a former colleague tried to get me into BTC at under a nickel each, the one claim it made was the cap. That ALONE made it worth a double-take. Because it’s meaningful.
A crypto without a hard cap is just another swindle, as we figure it. Turns a table stake poker game into a back alley craps game. Allowing participants to make up rules on the fly, we’re reminded of TEGWAR. The Exciting Game Without Any Rules.
Don’t get me wrong: I make highly speculative investments all the time. Behind each move (even the losers) there is a logical process. Cryptos are now in process of leaving the solar system. Leaving caps in favor of a good “story” and showing us what a Ponzi-Scheme/TEGWAR hybrid looks like.
It’s being called “the Flippening,” elsewhere.
Ure’s Rules (2022 Edition): #3,631 (b) [2a]. “No caps? It’s Craps!”
Like flies drawn to what?
Or, it’s going to teach a lot of people in the longer-term that maybe a central bank – with however little accountability – is better than a mob of digital fools.
Tokyo Craps Out?
A year ago, one of my daughters wondered about whether she should plan on going to Japan this summer. “No, dear. That would be a bad bet.”
Again, father knows best. Of course, no one listens anyway, but that’s not the point.
The point is: Japanese Business Leaders Add to Chorus Against Holding Olympics – says the WSJ”. (Besides: Lunch at Benihana is quicker with no security lines or CV-sniffing dogs.)
There is a fine lesson in futuring to be learned: If there’s a chance of anything going wrong, it probably will. The Almighty (him/her/their/they/itself) might answer to another name besides God. I’m thinking Murphy.
Let’s see, now: We have had a good kidnapping parallel to the Lindbergh kidnapping with the recent Colonial Pipeline kidnap for ransom.
For our next check mark, how about the Apple trial in the Epic Games case? You know, the one about Apple taking 30% off the top. If you’re not all over this like white on rice, read In Apple Antitrust Trial, Judge Signals Interest in Railroad, Credit-Card Monopoly Cases.
The rhyme here is similar to what was chronicled after the Crash of ’29:
“During the New Deal, likewise, attempts were made to stop cutthroat competition, attempts that appeared very similar to cartelization, which would be illegal under antitrust laws if attempted by someone other than government. The National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) was a short-lived program in 1933–35 designed to strengthen trade associations, and raise prices, profits and wages at the same time. The Robinson-Patman Act of 1936 sought to protect local retailers against the onslaught of the more efficient chain stores, by making it illegal to discount prices. To control big business, the New Deal policymakers preferred federal and state regulation—controlling the rates and telephone services provided by American Telephone & Telegraph Company (AT&T), for example—and by building up countervailing power in the form of labor unions.
The antitrust laws came to be seen by the Supreme Court as a “charter of freedom”, designed to protect free enterprise in America. One view of the statutory purpose, urged for example by Justice Douglas, was that the goal was not only to protect consumers, but at least as importantly to prohibit the use of power to control the marketplace.
If you don’t see the Biden-Harris team as New Dealer’s reincarnate, time to call your ophthalmologist.
This is a cyclical “news/human events” cycle: Companies that build a successful extension of their business (*like Microsoft as done with its store app, too) stand to be punished by the courts for their success.
There’s an important difference, though, between the break-up of a national monopoly like the AT&T breakup on the one hand, and the Apple case. In the former, regulations prevented competition. In the latter, open source, other computational ecosystems (MSFT, Linux, et al.) have an opportunity to “one-up Apple.”
Where we see the risk in Apple now is two-fold: The risk to their eco-system and the risk that with chip shortages (an extension of war) their introduction of new product could be slowed. Since they design here, but mainly make product in China.
A win both in court and in chip supplies versus two losses has us rereading the use of straddles and strangle option plays.
Free Lunch Politics is alive and well as we read in “California Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Proposes $0 Future Schools, Cancelling Student Debt.”
Not UFO’s: A sheriff’s office in the upper Midwest has been getting UFO calls about the Starlink satellite system: Outagamie County Sheriff’s Office – Posts | Facebook.
Real UFO reports: UFOs go mainstream, suspense builds ahead of major Pentagon report. We’re thinking excuses and delays, but let’s not plant negative energy…
Of course it’s a bioweapon. Ain’t no reason for “gain of function” for peace, now, is there? COVID origins whistleblower touts vindication as media, medical pros consider lab leak theory
Double Standard Dems. OK for them but not repugnants? Dems Urge Justice Breyer To Step Down Before Midterms To “Avoid Another ‘RBG’ Situation”. Do as we say….
Let’s make a
movie deal : Amazon, MGM $9B Acquisition Could Be Announced By Tuesday.
Pressure Washer Woo-Woo
Here’s a weird one for you: Late last year I bought a pressure washer. There were a number of pressure-washing chores to be done. But, somehow I just never got to them.
Well, then the weather turned cold. And the pressure washer box in the middle of the shop kept getting in the way. Up onto a shelf it went.
It sat there, over the winter, waiting for the right combination of my time – and weather conditions to be right.
Thought about it half a dozen times – the project is still on my list of things to do. Since last November.
In fact, I was thinking about pressure washing the stairs and deck last week. You know: to make them safer going up and down stairs.
But somehow it (hard to put this into words) “just didn’t feel right at the moment.”
So you can imagine my surprise when the mail showed up Monday with a letter from a company I had never heard of before:
Well, I’ll be damned.
The recall note will be answered this morning.
Not sure when I will actually get the parts and update the sprayer to make it safe. 10-days, or so, from the company website.
But it’s a fine lesson in “listening to the little voice of guidance” in each of us. That will do some of the strangest (and frankly, neatest) things to keep us out of harms way.
If we just listen.
Whispers and hunches do mean something, now and then.
Write when you get rich,