Mental problems may be subtle, sometimes. They can sneak-up unnoticed. Then BLAM! You’re crazy. At least that’s a two-bit impression from the small time I’ve spent skimming psychology books.
But it seems particularly probable when our “Equivalent Mondays Theory” is rolled out for a semi-annual airing.
The theory holds that we can sometimes “get at truth” by looking at the same day last year, then comparing things.
Equivalent Monday in 2020 was May 25th. On that day, the Dow closed at 24,456. The S&P nailed 2,955 and the NASDAQ rolled to 9,324.
To review – going into this back-alley math project – the Dow closed Friday at 34,207 and change; while the S&P notched 4,155 with the NASDAQ around 13,470. We’ve skipped the decimals following. Too much work, too early, too little caffeine.
The short summary: The Dow is up just under 40% (39.87160614982% if you want to be pissy about it. The S&P has also climbed 40% (40.609137055837% for obsessive-compulsives). The techs of NASDAQ report a 44% increase. Unless you’re anal in which case tech is up 44,4658944658945%
Is There a Point?
Hell yes. In fact, a whole boatload of points:
- Life in America is no better-off than a year ago. Yet this supports markets charging 40% higher?
- Growth – the Holy Grail of economic largess – has died. Replaced, instead, by massive federal “money giveaways” and inflationary massive deficit spending. Think of this as an AED for dying economies. U.S. News seems to offer lessons in “graveyard whistling” in “A Chill Fed, Cool Inflation, and a Long List of Reasons Not to Worry (So Far)”
- Are supply lines anywhere near recovered? Absolutely not. I still can’t get 5% to 20% of the items on my grocery list filled at the local Wal-Mart. Pastries, jugs or wine. Cuts of good meat. The kind with lower levels of water-injection. Which is a whole other way consumers in the “Victim Economy” get hosed. It will be slow to end – if it does: “Supply Chain Shortages Expected To Continue Into 2022 For Some Products” reports a TV station.
- But let’s not fixate on my ideas of health food (wheat, meats, and sweets) and count chips instead. The semiconductor sort. Shortages are killing auto lines and more. Far from over: “Global computer chip shortage may worsen unless Taiwan gets vaccines” reports Yahoo.
- America’s seemingly intractable problems haven’t been addressed. Open borders, racism, that kind of thing. In fact, the story Will Cain warns America is declining: In 60 years we’ve gone from Martin Luther King to Lori Lightfoot” seems to argue Black racism is rising. The mayor of Chicago won’t do one-on-one interviews with anyone but Black or Brown reporters…making her an obvious racist. Can you imagine what would happen if a White mayor said “One-on-one’s for White reporters only?”
Despite the obvious economic play (inflate and pretend is a good executive summary of it) the problems of last year are still around today. Given rising markets and “free government money” (coming out of our collective hides), most people are blinded by their addictions to normalcy.
Maybe that’s a good thing. Like being on an airplane and enjoying that remarkably close view of the Mountains…right before impact. Sometimes you’re better off not seeing it coming.
[I keep hoping Tabitha King (Stephen’s wife IYDK) would write an economic horror story. Though we’re first to admit, the one being written daily by the razor wire coup leaders, will be a tough plot to beat.]
Bitcoin Signaling Something?
Maybe. Maybe not. But it was trading (earlier) around $37,625. But an earlier fix was $34,486.
As usual, the news flow offers pointers. Some of which we think are reasonably pessimistic: “Bitcoin resumes sell-off over weekend, dropping below $32,000 (cnbc.com)” for example. Other stories sound like touts (shills) looking for greater fools: “Bitcoin Price Has Dropped, But Payments Support Is Growing (forbes.com).”
Our penchant for honest reporting on any story involves disclosure. We’d sure like to see a simple “reporting law” announcing whether the reporters penning a story own a crypto wallet. Or are partisans on the topic at hand.
Ownership ought to be a HUGE IN YOUR FACE CLUE that the reporter might be a partisan.
Same way a Palestinian writing about Israeli politics might have an axe to grind. And visa-versa. (Iran, a Longtime Backer of Hamas, Cheers Attacks on Israel – The New York Times reports the NY Times. Our look-ahead here? Watch Biden support Iran. Especially after reading “Sen. Cotton: Biden has been ‘rolling over for aggressors around the world’.)
Back on point: UrbanSurvival disclosures are simple: in the spirit of such candor we do NOT own a crypto wallet. And there is only a miniscule unlevered short position in the S&P 500 which may be closed this week at a small loss.
Last Trading Week of May
Last day of April our Aggregate Index closed at 37,477.17. Since Friday saw 36,902.56 at the ding, the pressure is on to keep this month “in the green.”
Investment gurus like month-on-month performance. Along with 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages. You can follow these on your own platform if you’re a playah.
Oh, that. Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator;
Even as the ChiFed was reporting:
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.24 in April from +1.71 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in April, but three categories deteriorated from March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.07 in April from +0.35 in March.”
S&P futures were still up 23 while Dow futures were up 129.
Death, Doom, and Destruction
No “Man bites Dog” material today.
Starting with Death: NJ mass-shooting survivors recall horror as possible motive surfaces.
The moving on to Doom: ‘War’ footing needed to correct economists’ miscalculations on climate change, says professor.
Along with a “side of Destruction”: DR Congo volcano eruption leaves death and destruction | DW .”
While the foggy reality of CV-19 being a bioweapon is still in Corporate Media Denial and Rework: Did you see where Trump’s Ex-Advisor Claims COVID-19 Was Made To ‘Control’ Society? And then there’s latest “rework” in “3 Wuhan lab workers were sick enough to be hospitalized in November 2019, triggering calls to reconsider theory that COVID-19 originated in a lab: WSJ.” Except, of course, NO NATURAL RESERVOIR HAS BEEN FOUND, YET. I mean, really, isn’t it becoming clear this is part of a compliance and control plan? Gives cover for a severe recession and all…sheesh! Did you see where “Missouri AG serves Chinese Communist Party in lawsuit over ‘unleashing’ COVID-19 pandemic | on Fox News?
Doing better than Biden patrols? Fox News spots migrant group running across southern border into US. Should news crews be deputized?
If you’re a San Francisco real estate mogul, be sure to listen to this pod as the CEO of Redfin thinks the rise in home prices could be about to cool a bit…
Even if you’re not a Mogul, yet, tried Chris Tyreman’s latest: Real or Fake Money Gurus? Can You Get Rich On A Minimum Wage, Following Their Advice? – YouTube.
Still think things are “looking up”? Supermoon Total Lunar Eclipse: How To Watch This Week’s ‘Blood Moon.
Happy Monday to all… three-day weekend ahead and more time on projects around here. Don’t walk under falling cryptos…
Write when you get rich,