Evolving a Trading Rule Set

Trend Your Friend?  Problem is, which Trend is someone talking about? Today we lay out use of differential trend detection tools. And does it fit with your personal investment style?

Especially when the Buy’ed ’em Fed is rolling with a “desperation cash dash” into markets to play Beat Back the Clock which was, until yesterday setting up for a 55 (trading) day collapse this spring in April.

When failure of the cash-splash reveals, the temporal zone around Presidents Day may become Charmin Week.  But(t) we shall see..

Although the main application is to stocks, this is a discussion that works well in casinos and a lot of other places where there is “choice.”

While we can’t take the “luck out of Chance” we can, at least, figure some ways to back it into the corner a bit.

Which is a longer than usual discussion, but I was asked, so stand by for a flood of ideas.

After a few headlines (like the ADP jobs report) and then a run through this morning’s ChartPack…

Hell yeah!  Let’s create 40% fewer new jobs than January a year ago and hype the living bejesus out of it!!!

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17 thoughts on “Evolving a Trading Rule Set”

  1. A CEO leaving on a high note, is very typical of a startup leader. Leaving on a high note will reflect better on their legacy and ease transition concerns. I can certainly appreciate Bezos wanting to move on. Running a company day to day is certainly different then building one up. Him moving on to focus on his passions make sense for him. Having a company transition from the founder to other college trained business professionals is typically not a great sign in my experience. In this case transitioning to the leader of AWS, will the nature of Amazon change? Bezos started in retail sales and Amazon seemed to want to be a retail company, but the new leader will come in from the “cloud” background. Will he still be passionate about innovating in the retail? I hope Bezos will continue with his passions, and continue to innovate in whatever he focuses on. Whether you agree or disagree with the changes Amazon brought is good for society, there is no doubt he put his stamp on the world, and satisfied millions of people purchasing desires.

      • As far as I know they paid all the taxes they owed and followed the tax laws. If you want to corporations to pay more, and raise consumer prices to reflect those new expenses, promote to have the laws changed. Corporations pay no taxes in reality, they simply pass that expense to the buyers of their product. This is one reason, I was a proponent of the “fair tax”, a spinoff from a national sales tax. Consumers of product and services actually end up paying all taxes, at least make it simple and clear at what level we are taxed, and do away with the billions paid to attempt to conform to existing tax laws.

      • Well, considering that the US government will always end up spending much more than it will ever take in from taxes (both corporate and individual), I am not sure that ‘raising taxes’ on anyone – corporate or individual – will ever really matter.

        Why not forgo federal taxes all together and just print? People would have far more money for consumption and investment AND what’s the difference? I mean, 20T, 30T, 100T – and pretty soon we are talking real money!

      • Taxes have been going down since the 1950’s. Everything can be subsidized.

        We have reached the “permanent plateau of prosperity”.

      • “taxes have been going down since the 1950’s”????? Out of Work Steve, how long have you been out of work? I assume when you use the plural it means all taxes. How many more taxes have been created since then?

    • Let’s not forget that AWS is the division that cut off Parler without warning and in violation of its contractual obligations! It was a political stunt that demeans all of Amazon. Now the head of AWS is the head of Amazon.

      Amazon collects “sales” taxes from everyone in any state that requests it. They’re collecting taxes even on items that are exempt in those states. Just as an example, food is exempt in NM and they collect taxes anyway. No complaint to them is responded to in any meaningful way. Of course, Ebay is doing the same thing.

      Both companies moved in lockstep to subsidize BLM and its various insurrections. I do business as necessary with them, but find their political biases distasteful. Dealing with AliExpress is at least more honest, if not as useful.

      • There are 3 companies that will completely control your web experience in the coming years: (1) Microsoft will handle application development, (2) Adobe will handle document processing, and (3) Amazon Web Services will handle data storage. If you don’t conform, you don’t get served. AWS server farms will have greater security than U.S. nuclear codes. I imagine 666 will apply to how a fourth entity finds a way to tie the first three together more efficiently (space based, perhaps?) There will probably be a mandala, as well. Everyone loves mandalas in logos.

    • AWS and Amazon’s Supply Chain needs to apply blockchain to the business model end to end, from fulfillment of hard [box of toilet paper] and soft products [API and cloud functions] and payment for same. Convergence. Yup there’s a future for Cryptocurrency[s] in there amongst the tulips.

  2. NineTwoFive Kemosabe – 925

    There are some gamblers who will never die, we just need a lil extra time to get warmed up..

    What could be more appropriate than the Silver Bullet Band this frosty February day ? https://youtu.be/V1hFHVaXjGE

    He may not have been Motor City Madman, but he certainly knew how to turn the page on those hollywood knights..

    trade em if U got em

      • Yes

        925 parts per 1000

        comex raised margin requirements – overnight Monday – tanking the futures on Tuesday.
        US Mint announces they can not meet demand for precious metal coins (Gold&Silver) in 20121.
        Physical silver hard to find at any premium..

        Can vinnie-V3, jpm and blackrock withstand the Squeezers?

        There be a dark swan swimming in the silver waters of the comex. No real worries though – as Hong Kong supposedly has lotz of phys silver to sell, only problem is that dam slow boat. When is next delivery month on comex ?

      • Eventually we’ll all want to be able to sell PM’s if we have them. Keeping them as a legacy for infinite generations to come is really not a plan. Since the spot is used as reference by everyone and it is mostly derivative in nature, where is a decent market for physical? Ebay is good for a coin or two, but beyond that, where’s a free market where one can do price discovery on significant transactions-both buy and sell?

        Buying opportunities happen when you’re not in a hurry. Selling opportunities are limited by the ability of naked shorts to prevent any real price discovery, since their purpose is to keep prices low.

      • NM Mike – this will only work if we keep the transactions between each other and by that I mean both out go and INcome. If we’re crazy enough to try and deposit a bucket load of silver and change into the bank it will all get shipped off to the attending Fed bank in your region and disappear. We have to be our own bank for as long as possible and, mainly, use the PMs to purchase income producing items. Also this scenario will probably happen when there is no active market for PMs due to the dollar crashing. Things will be priced only in terms of PM change or bullion ounces.

    • People have too much money to make silver valuable.

      One of the larger PM websites is still getting $12.00 over spot for ASE. Add in more for credit card fees (if any) and shipping (if any). Buy at the highs and silver has to go up to $40/45.00 for break even.

      The buy from the same websites was $1.00 over spot. That’s shipping the ASE back.

      Silver is going down.

      • Interesting conversation between Robert Keintz and Chris Marcus is being published now on YouTube about the silver flow and how the banks are combating the attempted short squeeze on silver. Silver won’t go anywhere until the paper market can either be discontinued for some reason or completely overwhelmed. Monday they dropped 1.6 BILLION ounces of silver on the paper market, I’m pretty sure they said, while SLV and physical buying skyrocketed to unheard of volumes taking just about every seller’s inventory down to nothing. This won’t be like busting the shorts on a little stock like Game Stop because they can completely mask any buying with the paper markets.

  3. Thank you for your most helpful instalment. Observers of the game may also wish to spectate the publicly available financial disclosures at the Office of the Clerk’s website. These could excel as wonderful keepsakes from silent speakers of democratic ideals conveying states of thought at a fixed moment in time whispering to then future inaugurative events or wanderings in the desert as like a hunter of early Easter eggs before spring equinox. This is not investment advice.


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