CPI: Prices Flat

Just out: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the indexes for shelter and food were offset by declines in the indexes for energy and used cars and trucks to result in the seasonally adjusted all items index being flat. The energy index fell 1.4 percent as the gasoline index declined 2.4 percent. The food index increased 0.1 percent in September after being unchanged in each of the prior 3 months.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in each of the last 3 months. Along with the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance all rose in September. The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, new vehicles, and communication all declined.

The all items index increased 1.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, the same increase as for the 12 months ending August. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.4 percent over the last 12 months, also the same increase as the period ending August. The food index increased 1.8 percent over the last year, while the energy index decreased 4.8 percent.

This picturizes as:

Feels like a hell of a lot more, though, doesn’t it?

1929 Replay Still Intact

Something scarier than “The Joker” or a letter from IRS?

We only post this now and then, but our  Peoplenomics.com subscribers see it more often, and with details of what MIGHT be ahead, laid out in the column Wednesday.

Expect More Bad News – Lots

We don’t know specifically what, but the market should start reacting to some really “bad stuff” by Monday.  Maybe that will come in tomorrow’s consumer sentiment or import/export prices.  Or trade talks ending early or…what?

We should under my crackpot theory, close about where the futures indicated earlier, but between now and that “hole in the chart” projects markets in the US declining an aggregate 12% between now and month end.  Yeah…big stress.

After that, there’s a bounce…but what comes after that bounce on the right is an even-worse November.  Seriously.  From the market highs in September, we see a potential loss of as much as 46% of stock prices possible.

No doubt, the Fed will do what they can to “save everyone.”  We can already tell you what we think will happen:  The market decline will begin in earnest tomorrow (if we get the expected slight decline by the close today and then really bad news comes into focus).

With the market down month-end 12%, the Fed meeting (October 30th rate announcement) will have no choice to to cut and that will jam the market up (which is where that right side of the chart rally will come from).

That rally, though, will be a short one, lasting until (subscribers only) and then continue on down into Thanksgiving.

None of this is cast in stone.

There is a lot of time-dithering involved.  The offset from 1929 should be three days behind the 1929 track by time of the Fed announcement, for example.  It’s two days now.

Any rational person (we’re in short supply, laterly) should be terribly concerned when the Fed Minutes out yesterday showed debate on when to halt rate cuts.

All of this is purely projections and not financial advice.  I can report, however, that we’ve made a little more than “lunch money” so far.  The trick will be to catch the “running of the shorts” when it comes and jump back to cash, because making money and then losing it back to the house, is not in our plans, thanks.

Which Headline Will Spark the Big Drop?

Pick Ure poison time:

“The Situation Looks Dire”: Trade Talk Chaos Sparks Overnight Futures Turmoil.  Maybe.

More details from whistleblower memo on Trump’s Ukraine call revealed?  Maybe the whistleblower could be arrested…outing secrets…

Not that facts matter anymore, but ‘There Was No Blackmail’: Ukraine President Again Denies Threat From Trump.

The trade war is set to expand as WTO chief says trade barriers between US and Europe are ‘last thing we need’.  The key dynamic here:  With the (profitable) UK BREXIT looming in weeks, the EU will put on their greedster suits and Trump won’t back down from the Brusselpricks.  Should be fun.

What does Apple have against freedom?  Because when we read Apple removes app used by Hong Kong protesters to stay ahead of the police it strikes us that Apple’s thrown in deeper-still with the ChiComs.  So, why does Rush Limbaugh still use an iPhone, then?  Thinking people vote with their wallets.

California Ham Radio Repeaters

800,000 people in California are being blacked-out by PG&E because of the risk ofmore wild-fires.  Because PG&E didn’t keep its right-of-ways cleared of brush.  Because PG&E hasn’t got the money ( say some reports), and meantime, a weird case has arisen in Shasta County involving a ham radio repeater.

Cal-Fire has removed a ham radio repeater that “appeared” in  one of its equipment vaults.  State figured it didn’t “belong there” Which  doesn’t make sense to us because ham radio has a record of helping the public during emergencies (like fires and earthquake) – a record second to none.

That said, remembering our motto “Everything’s a Business Model” the tale seems to trace back to the State’s idea that “There’s no free rack space” in their Shasta County radio vault.

Ham Radio Now,  edition 414, explains the whole mess…Here’s the video with all this laid out.  If you’re a ham, it’s worth the time to watch because it could become part of a national trend.

Not that we’re surprised by anything done in Kalifornia any more.  In a simplistic view yeah, the repeater may consumer $10 bucks a month in electricity…and OK, rack space is not free.  Got it.

However, the ham radio repeater may have been there before Cal-Fire (since ham repeaters are common around the “edges of civilization”.)  More to the point, ham radio provides back-up to the commercial equipment for those knowledgeable about its use.

With improved government communications (First-Net) ham radio becomes somewhat redundant, however.  Ergo, the state’s hard-ass view.

This is something to keep an eye on nationally, though, because we live in a world where “asset stripping” of the civilian population is well-underway.  Think of this as the cannibalistic part of the economic cycle.

A short discussion of asset stripping and the “Everything is a Business Model” when it runs amuck, is in order.

People don’t appreciate that in accounting, there’s no room for heart.  That means all assets are up for grabs.  Rack space is an asset…so the state smells money (and/or control).

Asset stripping in a Depression is commonplace.  Think Venezuela, for example.  (This is what dim-witted socialists (Andrew Yang comes to mind) never bother mentioning to their victim voters.  They just as soon ban private cars, for example, on a phony “climate pretext”.  Sure, a car is an expensive beast (what, $20K?).  The thing socialists don’t explain is 10-million people are employed maintaining those cars.  And NO government program, outside of a dense urban core, will ever give you the instant freedom to travel as you please.  They don’t care about freedom…doesn’t even place in their minds.  This is why the climateer’s are coming for your car.  Simple example of asset stripping, so back to point.

In the California case, state bureaucrats think their technology (read: their empire) is all they need, so their  pricing ham radio out of this facility.

Bureaucrats are like camels.  Once they get their “nose in the tent” one place, they will wreck all tents.. That’s the danger of the California case.  Bureaucratic contangion spreads quickly.  Ham radio repeaters, over time, may become a diminishing community resource.

And that fits in just fine with the corporate-socialist model of government:  Make everyone rely on the government for everything, and strong-arm everyone into “renting their life.”  Because that’s how the socialist business model works.

“From each according to their ability; to US according to our wants.

Starting with a $5,000 “application fee” for a radio repeater.

Will stories like Evacuations ordered as wildfire spreads in Bay Area town change their minds?

Now you understand why we keep several HF radios around…the kind that don’t need repeaters.  Where there’s a will, there’s a frequency… time to QSY to the breakfast table… 73

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net  ac7x