Virus Impacts: The Colorado River Paradigm

Sundays I like to that don’t make it into the column during our usual hectic working times around here.   

An Historical Markets and Virus View

Even if you don’t subscribe to Peoplenomics.com, we still love to share (and get feedback) on our curious views of history, markets, and the ability of humans to form “false correlations.”

False relationships, when viewing data, is very dangerous territory because it drives people to ascribe “cause & effect” to the  wrong things.  This propensity is laid out in in Thomas Gilovich’s book “How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life.”

It’s not that we deliberately set off to mislead ourselves; it’s that we tend to take the  most available data instead of measuring the multiplicity of other data sets that may inform us more accurately.

For example, in the current period, we’re in the midst of a Supply Chain Breakdown.  The  correlation to the coronavirus is there, but it’s really a kind of third-hand “source” of what will ail us into the future.

Let’s look at some of the earliest stock market data leading into the Great Depression:

There were a huge number of economic events within this date-range:

  • The long-running Depression from 1893 to about 1900 was in evidence.
  • Towards the end of those “Gay 90’s” optimism appeared and the markets rose.
  • The markets worked their magic as invention swept America, too.  December of 1903, man took flight.    Ford was founded in 1903.  Things were looking up, but….
  • Then came the San Francisco Earthquake April 18, 1906; but -at least visually in the data- it was not an especially “big driver.”  The Market had peaked two months earlier and was in a position where technical analysis could argue a further decline was due, anyway.
  • What followed the quake in late fall was the Knickerbocker Banking Crisis.  While some attempt to link the quake to the Knickerbocker Panic, Wikipedia reports that while there was previous quake-induced market instability, “Primary causes of the run included a retraction of market liquidity by a number of New York City banks and a loss of confidence among depositors, exacerbated by unregulated side bets at bucket shops.
  • When, on April 6, 1917, the U.S. entered World War I, the market had, once again, already peaked and was in a technical position to decline.  Which it did, losing about a third of its value into year-end in 1917.
  • The Spanish Flu began in the fall of 1918 and was mainly over by the end of 1920.  This area is shown in red.  And please notice that the market continued up for several months, thereafter. But, it did reverse course and begin a descent from 1919 into late 1920.
  • The market bottomed within this region.

On  “Kindling and Causes” of Panic

The world stands this morning on the doorstep of a multi-year, great economic Depression, in my view.  Even now, however, the cause is not squarely-centered in the public mind.

We’re in a global financial and supply chain crisis.  To be sure, the disruption of Chinese manufacturing may have been the “spark” – no question about that – but there’s something much more important going on:  Financial Engineering is failing.

The reasons have everything to do with Compound Interest and the Costs associated with a “wide and deep” supply chain versus the “modern” era’s “skinny supply chains,”  augmented by B2c business models, and the effects of  debt saturated “money.”

Time to kick back with a fresh cup and “picturize” a bit.

Two Rivers: A Supply Chain Failure Model

The major aspect of what’s going on today may be, I think, properly modeled by simply considering two rivers.

Before the advent of computers and networks, say prior to 1960, or so, Manufacturers mainly sent product to Distributors.  These, in turn, sent things on to Retailers and there was plenty of Charmin, assured Mr. Whipple, was it?

The River Model here is “Mississippi.”

Fast forward the runaway, indeed frenzied, moves to enhance technology, increase returns, deficit spend, and water-down the purchasing power of money.  Even genius-level entrepreneurs got into the movement.  Famously, Elon Musk’s Tesla Motor’s  successfully challenged the “old way” of distributing automobiles.

But there was more:  Amazon matters as the key hybridization of the 1895- Sears Roebuck and Company mail-order catalog giant.  But, instead of a printed catalog, the genius of Jeff Bezos was to “Do Sears as a website.”  The remains of Sears, lacking technical vision to grasp the new future, failed.  Retailer/Catlog houses (Montgomery-Ward, J.C.Penny, and many others) lost ground.  Communications left the mailbox and rotary phone and clicked-ahead.

Concurrently, there arose – in the breakdown of the Big-10 of Accounting – to what’s now the Big Six – cadres of very smart accountants (financial engineers) who realized that “Money invested in inventory doesn’t pay a return.”  And so, inventory levels were reduced to absolute minimums.

Just-in-Time manufacturing led to higher “inventory turns” and companies streamlined operations further.  Throughout the process, companies bought-bac k t heir own stock and artificially jacked-up stock prices to the retail public (small investors).  It was the Virtuous Cycle at its best.

The River Model for this?  The narrow gorge of the Colorado River as it transits Grand Canyon park.

Toilet Paper Runs Instead of Banks

This transition left Global Markets in an extremely vulnerable position.  Whereas in earlier times, the “wide and deep” [Mississippi River] model could withstand shocks (because inventory was widely dispersed geographically available) caused by regional changes in demand, in the “modern model” when the “narrow and fast” river model [Colorado through Grand Canyon] was running, there’s simply not enough product to refill empty shelves, rapidly.

In Palestine, Texas, and much of America, finding toilet paper has become an art form.  And in this part of The South, there’s a shortage of black-eyed peas and other high-protein legumes.

To the credit of Financial Engineering, I believe that “profession” simply failed to realize that their efforts to end “money at rest”  shifted the modern era from a high potential for “1930’s-style Bank Runs” to the more modern local grocery store “Toilet Paper Runs.”

Even today, people continue spending with high confidence of their “money working” – but the Devil in the Back Room is supply chain collapse.

Due to the ongoing Global Pandemic, we’re in the Colorado River Model and somewhere upstream, the water has been shut off.

China has every incentive needed.  But since the Colorado Gorge runs fast, when it fills up completely becomes a crap-shoot.

Public Policy Responses

We can judge these using our “Two Rivers” model.

On some, like “Let’s Build American Wells to Replace the Shut-off Water Upstreamn.”  The problem is we’re in the Colorado.  That’s hard rock country so drilling a well for water here will take 2-4 years.

We can be asked not to hoard.  As in “Don’t empty the river…others need to drink, as well…:”

The prepper types (like us) don’t trust anything now that the “water’s been shut-off upstream.”  We’re working on gardening, thank you.

The good news?

Well, if you find some, do leave a comment.  We think even when the water comes back on (figuratively) there’s now a national “drought mindset” evolving and that points in the direction of continued socioeconomic disruption.

And even when we weather Wave 1 of the virus, little is likely to change in time for Wave 2.

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

76 thoughts on “Virus Impacts: The Colorado River Paradigm”

  1. Great chart George. Made me think. What if we are at the Spanish Flu time in the market & not the 1929 crash? The chart shows a major bull market from 1884 to 1919, similar to our 2009 to 2020 bull market, except the 1884 to 1919 bull market was a bit longer. A new Tech Industrial Revolution is on the horizon in 2020 & will generate 37 trillion dollars of wealth as it kicks in. What does this mean to the stock market? Based on the chart, a crazy blow off like 1924 to 1929, then it crashes, but 5 to 10 years from now.

    Does this make sense to anyone?

    • Can you give a narrower overview? What technologies are you talking about are going to be the next $37 trillion dollar market place? Blockchain? 5G? Soylent Green and peripheral markets of it?

      And is it just going to be the newer generations that will profit from it because it’s a technology that geezers and geezettes have little curiosity in?

    • NC, good observations.

      Ironically, though, George’s discussion about the upcoming supply chain crisis makes a trillion dollar Tech Industrial Revolution untenable. The technologies I think you are alluding to will not be able to get off the ground without a robust supply chain, and/or government subsidies. Hell, that may partly be what this reset is all about.

  2. Beware investors, the fake news is trying to make it look worse than it is. Hospitals, even in NY aren’t overrun, at least not yet. Trump caught Cuomo in a lie & called him out, & the Press wants to protect Cuomo for a possible Presidential election run.

    • Patience. I read this morning it took the country 2 months to reach 1,000 deaths, and 2 more days to reach 2,000. Don’t forget that all of those countries out there, except China, are not much larger than our larger states. The storm is coming.

    • Well I see politics still engage many peoples mind in their mentality of a get rich scheme, thinking that all we need to goose this economy is a little nudge in the ass from the Fed known as easy money,I guess they have slept thru the trillions they have already dumped into the market,effects zero.Reading where the hedge funds are in the $3 trillion range,along with their breatern the B bonds.

      The world awash with cheap oil,they say they have run out of storage room shut it down,bye,bye frackers your history along with those billions in debt that you owe, and you will take a large number along with you.
      Reminds me of the preacher on T.V. hawking his book.on how to get into heaven,buy this book for $29.99 and it will show you how to get into heaven, and if you buy two for $39.99 you can take someone with you,well in this case they will be taking the flock with them.The tides coming in you better get to high ground, because its not going to leave much when it goes back out,to put it very bluntly the games played out you better find another.Interesting times we live in,we’ve had our dance now pony up to the piper,the days of free easy money is over.!!!!

    • Robert: Actually I was thinking of how I can profit from these times by investing in the stock market. You never know what is going to happen…ie, a bat soup virus, so I need to keep alert for opportunities. When investing, you what to buy stocks that are in demand by others so the price goes up. It is just that simple, but harder to execute, many variables. So you see what others are thinking, collect information. & then make up your mind & proceed forward, right or wrong. Maybe it will work, maybe it won’t. If wrong, adjust, if right, keep doing what you are doing.

  3. Significance of the 80 year Cycle for America
    Rough sketch (give or take a few years)

    1620 – Birth of the American Colonies. Mayflower Compact, etc…
    1700 – Growth of the American Colonies.
    1780 – Birth of the United States
    1860 – US Civil War
    1940 – World War II
    2020 – NOW !???

    • Works. Looks good. The new cycle I see is The New Tech Industrial Revolution with AI, INTERNET OF THINGS, 3D PRINTING, BLOCKCHAIN, SPACE TRAVEL, ELECTRIC CARS, ROBOTICS, BIOTECNOLOGY, ETC. changing how we do things & live. A change as big as happened after WWII. Assuming the power stays on.

      With the gyms closed, I got a Exercise CD & a pair of 10 lb dumbells. The MMA Body CD, 5 rounds. It is quite a workout at 72. At Wal-Mart, virtually all the workout equipment was sold out.

      • LOL! I have 30 sheets of sheetrock and as many OSB’s to sling up 8′ by hand through a narrow ladderway. It should be fun since I’m in your demographic! Then it’s off to roofing when the wind dies down. Fun stuff when you work alone.

        No gym for me!

        On the economics front, I’m trying to suss out why there’s such a wide gap between the retail buy and sell prices(including premiums) on the PM’s. This is a recent phenomenon. Spot is relatively low and there’s allegedly no product to be found.

      • Would that be the OmniSelect 535 Adjustable Dumbbells. The 2 10lbs were only $10 each for a total of $20.

      • Long term, we’ll be lucky to keep the lights on entering the decline phase of civilization here. This is the first act. Internet of Things and 5G are the end of privacy and freedom with serious health consequences. Complexity is killing us.
        We’re moving towards a simpler world. Electric cars are not the answer- for further info check out Alice Friedemann’s work at energyskeptic.com
        The ‘tech will save us delusion’ runs so deep….

    • 699 working, living examples that the modified malaria drug regime has worked with 100% recoveries! A great start to whacking the Whunan out of our lives.

      • from Tree of LIberty:
        NY Dr. Vladimir Zelenko Has Now Treated 699 Chi-Com Virus Patients With 100% Success Rate Using Trump-Touted Drug Cocktail of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak
        NY Dr. Vladimir Zelenko Has Now Treated 699 Chi-Com Virus Patients With 100% Success Rate Using Trump-Touted Drug Cocktail of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-PakV

  4. Here is a pleasant song about Mr Powell, first white man to go explore the Grand Canyon by boat,,down the Colorado,,,enjoy,,,not political, just a tribute to his adventure,, a mental description
    not the Fed chair, Mr Powell

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwpEiOGAdcQ

    Ozark Mountain Daredevils,,Mr Powell

    • Nice song! All these references to the Grand Canyon remind me of my adventure with a beloved back in 2011 when we trekked an abandoned backcountry trail from the rim to the river and back over a few days. We swam in the frigid and fast river against all the rules of safety and sanity in a totally isolated area. Definitely worth the risk for the memory!

  5. George

    ” who realized that “Money invested in inventory doesn’t pay a return.”

    So true, but aren’t there a lot of local governments that love to tax inventory which is another reason for Just In Time delivery of goods?

    By the time a pie leaves a bakery and get to the store shelf the tax birds have eaten a huge chunk of it!

    That needs to be changed!

  6. Returning to American manufacturing and supply may take 2 to 4 years but it is imperative that we do so. I believe we can do it sooner. But in the meantime turn off the damn TV.
    Here’s one for you, Cuomo – Clinton for the dem nomination. That should keep you awake nights.

    • Not as much and Trump AND Pence getting Wuhanized. That would be NastiNancy in the ovoid….yee gods…that bad dream followed me into the waking world… Worst imaginable “succession of events”

      • Oh my god…

        George that is a nightmare of B level horror movie caliber.

        Nasty Nancy and Creepy Joe. .
        I shudder at the thought that gives me. .

  7. Good report G,

    Here in MI. I’m getting reports that fresh meat prices have doubled in “value”.

    “21 days to a new habit”.

    We’re all re-learning how to cook at home. The people who still have jobs are learning how to balance home schooling/home work and home life. We are re-learning how to entertain ourselves and kids at home.

    The economy collapsed.

    Generally speaking, “retail” Sears broke an axle at the Dean Witter intersection and that’s where the financial pirates climbed aboard.

    Do recall the days when Sears would only accept Discover Card. Turning customers away helped the budding Best Buys and Circuit Cities and even Cabala’s of those days. The internal Discover Card team was probably showered with bonuses.

    Back then Sears sold a lot of computers. Recall the DOS days, corrupt your computer – off to Sears with a floppy to make a boot disk.

    Sears brought the Internet to mass market 1st with Prodigy. After Sears came AOL and Net Zero.

    Of course there’s a lot of moving parts. Standard disclaimers.

    • Understand, Sears begat Discover (Sears may still own Discover, IDK, IDC) after seeing Bank of America’s bottom line bump with Bank Americard (nee, VISA), once honest numbers from BoA became available. Discover was, for a number of years, so profitable that it supported the entire retail divisions of both Sears, Roebuck & Company, and Simpson-Sears, Ltd…

    • Yeah.. OOWS… I have noticed the same thing around here… prices are going up on basics..

      One place had to close.. my brother called and said that a place they went out to eat at all the time was doing to go orders..anyway they went to get the meal and the manager told them that they were closing the doors.. without customers they cant afford to make the expenses..

  8. Thanks George,
    Your comments this morning fell into my brain this way: We used to store inventory at distributors, then we stored it in China, and now the inventory will be stored in our individual homes. It will take a while to fill those millions of closets and freezers.

    • “now the inventory will be stored in our individual homes.”

      It always had been, since time immemorial. The fact we Boomers either forgot to teach our progeny the value of a pantry, or they failed to pay attention, is on us, ‘cuz OUR parents all certainly had one…

  9. George – what happened to Ure MOAR USD celebration! 2 TRILLION more – lets plug that number into the google machine -and Divide by 3 hundred million (US Pop.) = QUOTIENT?

    The quotient to above caused me to have an Involuntary Spasm of both Corrugator Supercelii Muscles.

    Dont look now -but “they” just RAIDED the US Treasury – AGAIN!

    ALL good cause “they” be giving the Sheep $1500 each – dont U feel better about this ChiCom Flu now?

    Pan – demic..Pan – ic..greek mythology Pan -wakeywakey?

    Nah — bakeybakey..

    What do CBDC/Digital Dollar and eThaler have in common ?

    The answer by George is blowing in the wind..

    The Token Issuance System will comply with Token Taxonomy Framework developed by —
    JPMorgan,Chase & ConsenSys.

    eThaler /eThaler Group building on Hyperledger Besu – will comply based on ERC-1155 Token Standard.

    R3/nyc is working with: Swiss Nat’l Bank,Bank of Thailand,Swedens RiksBank,and European Central Bank.

    CCP been working on CBDC for over 4 years – wonder if they worked on TooWongFlu that long?

    Having a popgun Party this year to celebrate 1 Bitcoin = $100,000. yeahyeah..” worthless fraud, nothing backing it, going to ZERO yadayada.

    Never mind the Mefloquine then.. in spite Russian intel saying it HALTS/STOPS bodies Inflammatory Response to ChiCom bioweapon. Add a Z-Pack and some Zinc Supplements = Clear.

    – blood on the tracks, as the tidal surge begins.. No Bitcoin 4 U nattering Nabobs of Negativism.

    • “No Bitcoin 4 U nattering Nabobs of Negativism.”

      I get such a chuckle out of Bitcoin LOL LOL LOL.. it is even a bigger joke than what the Federal Reserve passed on to the people of the world.. at least there you can hold it.. here and now..with BC you have to pay to even see it.. LOL LOL LOL..
      LOL LOL LOL LOL even with everything closed.. you still can’t spend them LOL LOL LOL the local merchants don’t take BC..although you maybe could get them to take gold even that is iffy I am pretty sure that women still love the shiny metal.. LOL LOL LOL…. but if you had TOILET PAPER…Now then you could rule the community one square at a time.. line your bilfold with tp and you can trade it for just about anything you want..Heck you would need a body guard in some neighborhoods…. you thought you would have a lot of new friends if you won the lottery.. just let everyone know you have a car load of TP and they will be swarming all over you.. ladies young and old would love you for your great looks and manly man phsique just for a roll of charmin ultra soft ….
      try wiping your buttochs with a bit coin once NOT going to happen.. the power goes off.. even texas chili gas has more substance than.. so if you wanna impress the ladies and be the one in the neighborhood that is envied.. just show off your charmin ultra soft..

      NO TP for you..

      • Hahahaha hahahaha, God, yes God, I love this site AND these amazing common taters… George, you gotta get a cable station, so we can have these Jackie Gleason knockoffs, wise men and women, psychic prophets, amazing Nostradamus researcher, dream site conveyor, military grade experts, sustenance experts, otherwise known as farmers, preppers, lovelorn intelligensia, smart asses, small business owners, insiders from TPTB, and political party hacks. Line the teams up, make it a contact sport with spitball ammunition, you will be at the top of the charts in no time, okay, then if you can’t do that skype in or hangout with your guests and do it online, truly it would be so awesome!!!! Let’s ride out 2020 in interpersonal, super galatic, heavily prophetic guided by our stars, Bruto, onwards and upwards STYLE…”To The Moon, Alice.” Now playing on your local free stations so a new generation can learn how to spat with your lovely wife and kiss and make up in 20 minutes or less!!!! Come on, George, turn us ALL ON as Guests!!!!

  10. I was pushing some numbers around and came to a somewhat surprising (to me) conclusion that COVID 19 has reduced the number of overall deaths in the country.

    What brought that thought to mind was simply comparing the number of traffic fatalities for the first three months of 2019 and so far this year. I will let those who are interested look up the numbers, but so far the, currently, much lighter traffic has resulted in an overall reduction in the death rate… by several thousands.

    That is, of course, just looking at a single data set, but I am sure other examples can be found. For example, due to social distancing and hand washing, I suspect that deaths from flu and other contagious diseases are sharply lower as well.

    I don’t know if this qualifies as the good news you were asking for or not, but there it is.

  11. We can find the positive where we look as well. May be the thing needed to bring the country back together and make our own stuff again! Maybe I’m delusional but i want to bring production home and that’s my post depression gold mine!

    • I just had a wild meditation. I kept getting these flashes of white light on my right side and I could feel something touching me. On my arms and legs and face. Like moving my clothes and I kept seeing twin spirals. Sooo intense I forgot I was meditating.

      This thought occurs to me about the great migration west for this and south America. you know what killed the indigenous people more than the sword and the bullet??

      Disease. Because those coming from accross the Atlantic had built imunities to all these diseases that indigenous people hadn’t. The common cold killed alot of them. They hadnt built up the immunity to such things over generations as the people from Europe. millions died.

      What if this virus is some sorta inoculation for Alien arrival? Huh?! *shrugs, What a weird thought. I got a weird brain. Hahahaha

  12. Oh, a request for a urban survival investigation if I may make one! Where the hell did all the physical gold and silver go???? A lot places are completely sold out….

    • Perhaps it is the bubble of which we will not speak being as certain nations might only have paper to cover their holdings, as well?

    • See my comment above. It seems that dealers are unwilling to buy at a reasonable price(spot plus premium). They’re offering a deeply discounted price if you’re selling, so nobody will unless they’re desperate. This is far more true for silver than gold right now. The dealer spread has increased to the point that the market is rather limited.

      Private sales might work well for both sides if the authenticity of the product could be assured.

      • The reason the premiums are so far above spot price is that spot price is determined by the Comex contract which is and has been completely manipulated by the banks. It is not an actual free market price. You cannot get delivery on a Comex contract because they do not have the metal to back it up. Don’t you wonder why the spot price dropped so much when there wasn’t enough physical supply to meet demand? The whole thing is ass backward. The entire Central Bank monetary system is a fraud and action in the metals market makes that glaringly obvious! Millenial Caller, you should have bought earlier. It is too late to get any at the fraudulent spot price and it may be soon to late to get it at all until a “real” price is established.

      • Anyone ever consider suing for fraud? That is, if they can’t won’t deliver in a timely manner on a c ommodity contract, is that not fraud?

        looked at gold Krugers today and $2,000 a pretty nift premium at retail from spot…again, is anyone getting good delivery?

    • When we had the obscene crash, a lot of fat wallet players got socked with huge margin calls. They dumped PMs like crazy, which drove prices down 25-30%, nearly overnight. Not every high-roller got caught in the calls. The ones who didn’t, bought every ingot and round they could get their hands on. The PM dealers got burned. They’ll run a higher margin for a while, until they have to cut spreads to compete with their peers in the market…

    • A ZH article last night pointed out that the U.S. Mint has now restocked with some of their gold coins. A proof Eagle? – $2175, if I remember correctly! The business proof was around $2140 or so. I don’t know if anyone is trying to sell right now. However – Eagles on Ebay were still down in the $1700+ category for BINs – for now at least.

      • Bill, I can’t see ever buying bullion, even coinage, to which is attached a numismatic premium. That just doesn’t make sense to me. If’fn someone is buying PMs as a fallback currency, or as an investment or hedge, the only premium to pay is the smallest possible. If one is buying them as numismatic collectibles, the sky’s the limit and they’re worth whatever the market will bear, same as artwork and collector cars. Proof Eagles are numismatically significant, therefore, their price is not a good reflection of the spot price of gold.

    • Oh my oh my run for the hills the Chinese have taken over those hallowed halls of learning,where boys play with dolls and the girls play with whatever,and they are complaining.

      Well the intelligence services never were to smart for we can bring them over here and run them thru the money catchers, and then send them home so they can be just like us,now what not to like about that for in twenty years they will be able to bankrupt China just like their counterparts have here.Now I got to go and check on that virus thing then I have to check on the TP thing if they are out I’ll run down to the gas station and steal those out the public rest rooms.!!

  13. “Toilet Paper Runs Instead of Banks”

    My friend… known him for over forty years.. Lives in the outskirts of the Buttway … He was telling me his challenging events of trying to find a package of toilet paper for his wife.. it was a harrowing adventure.. his wife works as a caterer for the lobbying firms off of K street..
    anyway.. we were visiting about this harrowing adventure and just how much trouble it was to find a package.. then that a package of TP went on Ebay for ending price 120.00 plus twenty something for shipping.. and the small twelve square packs of tp in an MRE were selling for two bucks a pack and shipping.. and they are sold out.. well anyway I was in a dollar general and happened to spot a package of tp.. that someone had set on a different shelf and everyone missed.. at first I wasn’t going to buy it .. then I thought heck.. why not so I bought it and mailed it to my friend in DC as his this years xmas gift LOL now the debate is.. will it make it to him.. or will someone confiscate it before it gets there.. LOL…He said laughing that I could even drive in DC right now it was a ghost town LOL…

    and to think I could have been in the B club.. if I had only known ahead of time to buy a ware house full of Toilet tissue and hand sanitizer LOL LOL LOL sell it by the square.. LOL LOL LOL.. I could see it now.. The TP King.. LOL LOL LOL..

    • LOL! A local tool store in ABQ just installed combination locks on their bathrooms after they caught people shooting up in there. Even after they did so, they still have customers(or others) stealing the TP!

    • We had started the month with a generous supply of toilet paper and still have most of it due to conservation. We were in a habit of grabbing a handful of TP to use like Kleenex. No longer as I was able to get a multi-box package of facial wipes at SAM’s. As I saw that TP was going to be out of stock for who knows how long I decided to go old school. I purchased as many face towels as I could afford and also some kitchens sponges. If push comes to shove you can wipe your rear with a face towel then throw it in a bucket with bleach water. A sponge can also be used in an emergency. If it was good enough for the Romans it’s good enough for us! After you get too many used items they get put in the washing machine and dryer for another round of use. Improvise – Adapt – Overcome !

  14. Whether the River is “wide and deep” or “narrow and fast”… either way you will have problems when certain mostly-hidden interests benefit by deliberately damming up the rivers at various locations just when people are most vulnerable to promote someone else’s Hidden Agendas (deliberately making things difficult to function by various means and feeding general panic)… by not having enough River Boats and Barges and River Captains to transit goods up and down the river (lack of adequate infrastructure and human capital)…

    …by Boat Captains getting sick and staying away from their steering wheels… by not having enough medical people to treat the sick Captains… by frantic people waiting dockside to pillage what few things are being off-loaded from the riverboats… by the general lack of trust all along the transportation and social chains that must exist for the entire process to function at all… by wondering by what method the goods are going to be paid for during a time of financial re-engineering to a new World Financial System lead by members of Hidden Hand who want to put a chip in YOUR hand… by seeing how the Riverboat Company has been bankrupt for years and being kept alive by going deeper into debt to the Hidden Hands…by looking down and noticing how filthy the water has become that the boats and barges has been floating on…OH WAIT… you asked for some Good News?

    The Good News… there was a lot of unnecessary barge and riverboat traffic on the rivers that will not be returning… there was a lot of cheap junk being moved around on the rivers that people will realize is not necessary to their lives and that can easily be done without in the future… that maybe We the People will do some serious soul-searching and rediscover what is truly necessary and important about living like eating, staying healthy, sharing with and caring about others, enjoying every single day as if it were our last, and clearing away all the economic, psychological, spiritual, and propagandized garbage that has been building up in our overstuffed Garages all these years to the extent that we can’t fit any more of that crap in there…and that… ultimately, ALL rivers and boats and barges and humans all end up at the very same destination at the end of our journeys anyway… it’s ALL about making our lifetime trips and those of our fellow passengers as pleasant as we can make them for as long as we can. That’s what this Game of Life always was about, anyway.

  15. Since politicians have one answer to every problem (diminish the purchasing power of the currency!! ;-( ) they should have excused themselves from medical issues, and let this virus run it’s course.

    So far politicians have aggravated the world’s problems, because it is (only!!!) about themselves and their grandstanding; Unfortunately, the public will fall for it, again, and again. This globe has way too many subjects and that was and is the real problem we face, IMHO!

  16. Jeez, two weeks. Here goes,

    Homeschooling all across America is going great!

    The totals in our household after Day 1, are as follows:

    2 Students suspended for fighting, mad 1 Teacher caught drinking on the job… cheers

    Day 2: “If you see me talking to myself, I’m having a Parent Teacher conference…

    Day 3: Hmmm, Trying to figure out how to get this kid transferred out of my class…

    The Teacher is drinking Quarantinis, and one of the KIds called in a Bomb threat

    I fired the Teacher, She can file a grievance with the Union.
    Home school with Dad, Passed!Day 3:
    Students catch Teachers making out, Classes cancelled for remainder of School day. Closed door Administrative Disciplinary ConferenceWorking from home,:

    My Wife has already filed a Harassment case with HR..I remember when harass was two words .Homeschooling with Dad, end of week one: TGIF!!

  17. G,
    The New Orleans Mardi Gras was a bad idea, as attested to the explosions of CV now. The curious thing about NOLA is the news coverage is about the rat population having issues and are everywhere on the streets. Lol, maybe instead of poisoning everything in sight, they out to have taken a page from history and invested in some professional ferreters. Like a cat, they can catch and kill ALOT of rodents. Unlike a cat, they won’t play with it for hours and puke them on your doorstep. No offense to the Zeus, but I have a Yeti-Cat and he’s the worst about that. The ferrets, on the other hand, are the purrrfect predator for a mouse infestation.

  18. Thanks for your had work, George. You prepared us well.

    Couple of good books that I pulled off the bookshelf to re-read, Seth Godin’s Tribes and Richard Florida’s The Great Reset. They struck me as fitting to the times.

    Our generation, The Boomers, has never really been challenged. Not like our parents and grandparents. While we are later in our years, this is it. It’s going to come down to how we behave in our communities. Do we help each other or retreat into isolation with our supplies? I believe the former.

    Wishing you and your families well.

    • I vote HELP those you can W.C.
      In the end it’s about something we have misplaced in today’s society..
      It’s about the strength of community’s and being a conscientious neighbor…
      It’s how our pioneers made it traveling across the wilderness..
      If you listen to Indian tribe stories it’s how they survived..
      In tribes in remote jungles it’s a tradition.
      Where today we flushed those traditions and adopted the ME

  19. HAWAII CASE COUNT UP 24 TO 175 TOTAL. 2 new ones on my Big Island for 12 total. Here’s the HI NOON update from HDOH:

    Total cases: 175 (24 new)
    Hawai’i County: 12 (2)
    Honolulu County: 123 (15)
    Kaua’i County: 12 (1)
    Maui County: 20 (4)
    Pending: 6 (2)

    Hospitalized: 12 (0 )

    My routine doing elder care four days a week has not changed. Recovery, laundry, home cleaning the other three days… staying healthy to protect the elders. Getting texts from friends and relatives going stir crazy at home. Me?… Feels like laid back retirement.

    Hawaii still on ‘Stay at Home’ orders. Mandatory 14 day quarantine for incoming persons. Still waiting for the numbers to stop rising.

  20. It was a cold and blustery day…

    …that Sunday afternoon a few weeks ago which was to be the last hours of operation before the bricks and mortar civic library closed indefinitely. I selected a few odds-and-ends titles for dowsing out rabbit holes.

    The visitation of today’s “Urban” sermon from the pulpit segues nicely with one of the thinner tomes currently in progress: “Craving – why we can’t seem to get enough” by Omar Manejwala, M.D.

    The book appears so far to be a layperson’s handbook suitable for day of rest contemplation on satiation without indulgence. I’m not sure if Pavel is going to find a brick of anything at the bottom of this rabbit hole. However, imagining the reeling economy as a person that just had their bell rung when opportunity knocked, possible responses may have some predictability. This is not investment or medical advice.

    Be Happy. Catch the Wave.

    • Catch a wave and your sitting on top of the word, and everyone looks like tiny little ants.

      Remember sometimes a spiral can look like a circle, a wave, a flower, a door, a frequency and even a life. It is only in added dimension that it can be viewed properly.

      You know the deal??
      #1. Coincidence is born of juxtaposition.
      #2. Synchronicity is born of multiple occurrences of coincidences.
      #3. Serendipity is born of multiple occurrences of synchronicity.
      #4. Miracle is born of multiple occurrences of serendipity.
      #5. A world is born of multiple occurrences of miracles.
      #6. Life is born of multiple occurrences of worlds.
      #7 and he rested.

    • Depends on your perspective. If you are a thousand miles away and getting your news from the ‘net, then it probably looks surreal. When you are in the middle of the mix and your first thoughts are about who is taking care of the medical providers who are pretty much playing Russian Roulette when they go to work, the threat is very real.

      However, it doesn’t take a psychiatrist to see how screwed up the President is. When he says he wants to be the war president, he’s really saying he wants to be an autocrat, The King. When he makes it so obvious, and publicly states, that you have to kiss his ass to get Federal assistance, then he loses credibility. That’s the root of the problem — he has lost all credibility and trust — and that has repercussions all around the world. He says things for shock value and we are no longer shocked by anything he says.

      Or maybe the obfuscation is deliberate and Machiavillian with the real plan being to slow things down to maximize getting rid of the old and poor and blacks and browns living in the urban areas. Nothing is implausible anymore; anything is possible.

      I hope I am wrong and feel free to disagree; we’ll continue this discussion in a few months when and if things normalize…

      • hahaha, you never fail to lower the bar, “maximize getting rid of the old and poor and blacks and browns living in urban areas.” What a Crock of CRAP.

        In my town, they are funneling them in from EVERYWHERE and we, the working class, our paying for them to replace us!!! It’s the Whites, which are most of the BOOMERS, they are trying to kill off so they can save those SS dollars!!!!

    • Nice…

      “A spokesperson for the HHS inspector general told the Washington Examiner that investigators will carry out at least five reviews “related to HHS’s planning and response of the COVID-19 outbreak.” The inquiries will scrutinize issues such as nationwide hospital responses, quarantine procedures, the training and protective gear provided to front-line health workers, nursing home standards amid a disease with an exponentially more deadly effect on the elderly and the already ill, and the ability to care for illegal border crossers and refugees during a public health crisis. [….]”

      nationwide hospital responses

      It can’t be aggregated, except by a statistician. Hospital responses are gauged by locality

      quarantine procedures

      Ditto

      training and protective gear provided to front-line health workers

      Ditto

      nursing home standards

      Ditto

      ability to care for illegal border crossers

      Not our job.

      The first four are the province of each State’s Governor, using established guidelines from NIH, the last, the job of the nation, district, or prefecture from which the illegal aliens came.

      IMO the only Administration official with whom the IG could possibly find fault is Fauci, so by all means, let’s lock up the single best person, perhaps in the entire world, who’s qualified and capable of resolving the CV-19 issues…

  21. I realize there may be a language gap.. but watch the video.. and you will see just how to make face masks with a removeable filter.. anyone that sews.. or has taken home ecconomics will understand the process.. she shows you step by step..

    https://youtu.be/J-II06evofo

    here is the pattern..

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1H_qC6Ww-fK49QRFUXPqfqQGJBsJ1r_jU/view

    lif you decide to make activated charcoal filter paper instead of jus the paper filter she had.. and you can get charcoal powder..

    https://www.walmart.com/ip/Natural-Organic-Activated-Charcoal-Tooth-Teeth-Whitening-Powder-Bamboo/145305029?wmlspartner=wlpa&selectedSellerId=101010303&adid=22222222227322089768&wl0=&wl1=g&wl2=c&wl3=400311729015&wl4=pla-845004169415&wl5=9020401&wl6=&wl7=&wl8=&wl9=pla&wl10=140968313&wl11=online&wl12=145305029&veh=sem

    https://www.ebay.com/i/222157750190?chn=ps&norover=1&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-117182-37290-0&mkcid=2&itemid=222157750190&targetid=883484275562&device=c&mktype=pla&googleloc=9020401&poi=&campaignid=9343999134&mkgroupid=101452701304&rlsatarget=pla-883484275562&abcId=1139336&merchantid=113631200&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIpvrolJ7B6AIVLf_jBx2QhALcEAQYBSABEgK08fD_BwE

    If you cannot get it locally then.. you can make your charcoal or buy activated filter charcoal at any pet supply shop…. (making charcoal is easy enough.. put your wood in a sealed container and surround it with fire.. for several hours..let it cool open the container the chunks are your charcoal..) activate your charcoal then blend up the chunks to get the powder… to activate your charcoal.. blend it to small chunks.. then mix one part of lemon juice to three parts of purified water.. let soak for ten hours.. then rinse out the lemon juice from it .. dry it and blend it to make your charcoal powder.. and you now have activated charcoal…
    or you can buy activated charcoal powder.. take a paint brush.. and dab it in the charcoal powder.. dab it on the filter.. ( paper towels or cloth..) double it up paper, powder dabbed on first paper.. then cover with paper… after you have put the paper towel or cloths together iron it to seal the charcoal powder in the fibers.. and trim.. you now have your activated charcoal filter.. that you can insert into your new mask..

    • You can use vinegar to..the reason is to use a mild acid.. basically without getting to in depth charcoal just like ashes has a sharp alkalinity..by using a slight acid was brings the ph to a neutral reading.

  22. Now that Ceasars Palace in Vegas is shuttered, cashing out the chips takes on new meaning.

    Local bank branches here have closed including mine which has a sign on the door pointing out the nearest open affiliate branch located three miles away. Safety deposit boxes are granted access on Fridays between 2 and 4 p.m. with an appointment. I’m not sure if there is any science to the story that the virus can cling to cash, but merchants are keen for plastic payment rather than cash.

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