Reader Note: We will be posting in section this morning due to heavy weather which will likely take down our satcoms as it rolls through.
Why You Should Brace
Simply: In our work the data informs that things could be much, much worse than Dr. Fouci’s much repeated forecast of a COVID-19 death toll of “100,000 to 200,000” as the virus continues to attack America and rolls on into the Heartland.
All the while, our absolute worst-case nightmare is the one where both the President and VP come down with CV19 symptoms. Because that would pave the “road to succession” for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And THAT would be an unmitigated disaster because she and her evil spawn in the ever-more communist leaning party have loaded so much Pork into the “Virus Relief Bill” as to make an Iowan blush with envy. All the while, she’s heaping on pant-loads of political B.S. by trying to gin up another impeachment effort. Can you effin’ believe it? Zombie politicians than can’t be put down…
We’re having an internal debate as to whether Schumer, Shifty, Hil, Obama, or Nancy is “patient zero” for THD (Trump Hate Disorder). Not that it matters.
As Pelosi’s handlers are loading her with double-ought mouth-shot, like “While the president fiddles, people are dying,” We notice that Her Highness has continued to support Open Borders and – THAT kills people, too.
Please Nancy, for the good of the Union, go quarantine!
Why, there will be enough “blood on the hands” of both parties before this is done that it will make Ure head spin.
What the Numbers Say
As of click-time for us, the case-count globally today was 737,929 while the death count was at 35,019.
We need to have a conversation about statistics, here. The numbers from today are higher than the ones Sunday – so the disease hasn’t stopped. Statistically, though, we won’t be able to figure a meaningful out for today because the numbers aren’t stabilizing until afternoon (as overnight and morning data come in).
What we can do, however, is a freeze-frame on what Sunday data was telling us. It’s not pretty. The Global Outlook of cases?
There was no reason to run past June 8 because the world population limit of potential cases is capped by the number of people on Earth – about 7.6-billion.
As to the global death outlook, if social distancing doesn’t “get hard” and stay that way for 1-2 incubation periods?
As may be seen (if you’re not color-blind and can see the red cell above) the mortality rate has been moving up from the early estimated 3.4%. If our count here is right (cases divided into dead body count),, then this will in all likelihood be worse than the Spanish Flu of 1918.
Oh, and as for Dr. Fauci’s high end of “200,000 dead” in the U.S.? Well, if the deaths in the U.S. run proportionate to the rest-of-world potential, the death rate could go some multiple of even Fauci’s grim numbers:
In a simplistic straight-line progression of the virus, we could be seen as smashing through the Fauci 200,000 level as early as mid-May. Side bets on how this will work out?
The “Good News”? (Yeah, there really is some…) Statistically, we could continue to see an expansion of cases for the next month (which I’ve referred to as “hell month”) but, once we have exposed over half the Globe, then the case increase rate may begin to decline.
The statistical problem will be keeping our level-headedness as the Mortality Rate could be skewing higher.
You know, right now, says 100 people get the virus. 10-days out, our data says up to 6% of these people might be dead. Which would be six people, at six percent, right?
When the number of cases (increase) goes down in a hypothetical following week, to say 75 new cases, that doesn’t make the six dead people “undead” does it?
No, it would make a real-time accounting of dead divided by cases change from 100 into 6 = 6% to 75 into 6, which is 8%.
The Axiom to remember: Initial mortality rates would be expected to be low when the spread rate is still ramping up, and would skew high in the declining phase. It’s just what happens when the denominators are changing.
I was blessed many years back to have corresponded a bit with Cesare Marchetti who you’ve probably never heard of. (Your loss!)
Marchetti was the father of “Marchetti’s Constant” which discovered people in all cultures tend to spend about an hour a day commuting to work. More importantly, he was at least “in the delivery room” for the birth of Logistic Function analytics. This is what we’re talking about here: A Logistic Function (or “S=Curve”) of how disease spreads and…..ready for this?
The short answer is “Yes! Sure seems to be…” But you’d need to look at his work on the application of S-curve dynamics to Transport Systems because the notion of successive, over-lapping S-curves is compelling. It describes the expansion and collapse of paradigms (whether a virus or cars taking over from wagons) it’s all part and parcel of the logistic function.
As time permits, we will revisit the 2001 paper on the Peoplenomics side dealing with S-Curve (logistic function application and S-curve derivation) as applied to stock price periodicity…
“Bottom Line Me?”
We are potentially in the early part of a social crack-up that will involve several overlapping logistic waves. The “mass consumption” cycle is likely ending, as I discussed in the Sunday report “Virus Impacts: The Colorado River Paradigm.”
We not only have the logistic function of the virus running, but as an extension, we need to understand there may be logistic growth implicates for manufacturing, as well as global food production.
Which is why, we many Americans were “locked-in” this week, and none-too-happy about it, I got started on the “next stage” of food self-sufficiency. Namely, using “no-till” technology and scrap cardboard in order to reduce garden labor (e.g. weed-free gardening). You need to hit YouTube and start learning the principles of cardboard-based weed-free horticulture right-freaking-now because the future of the supply chain (and the “3-thousand mile salad”) is dimming even as the virus logistic function runs.
There is a ton more that could be written: Collection of rainwater, figuring out how to preserve what excess food you can grow, how to keep a low profile, and a sniper-refresher training for the smaller calibers. (Not everyone has a Barrett .50 to “reach out and touch” but in this area because of terrain, the number of mile-plus shots is pretty-much terrain-and-vegetation limited….ahem… But, something like a Gunfighters INC Kenai chest holster for the Glock 19/23s…well…er….just saying, when we quarantine hard, we ain’t a just-a-kidding… P.P.S. get the extra magazine holder and ammo carrier, lol. We don’t talk much about this “harder side of prepping” but we’re not idiots, right? We assume you have NV gear as well, with at least one head-on model?)
We kinda-sorta-heard GFI was up near where my son’s fire department is outside Wentachee, WA. Well, how ’bout them apples, huh? World is full of amazing coincidences, isn’t it?
Ah, then there’s the market. Could we rally more? Sure, Dow futures were up 55 when I looked before click-time.
Enjoy it while you can.
And in Other News…
Well, there’s not much. Dallas Fed report due out in an hour, or two. Big whoop.
Europe was trying to rally, so a nice pop today is possible.
U.S. Housing data tomorrow. ADP Jobs Wednesday, Challenger Job Cuts Thursday and then Friday the “How bad is it…” confessional from the Labor Department in the Jobs Report.
Around here? Oh, uh…just watching the lettuce coming up and the seeds that went in Sunday. We’ll be planting batches every couple of weeks to spread the harvest out over the season which – given conditions of the supply chain – may be adjusted up, or down.
Top off the .22 rat shot for small game and a brick or two more of 22LR and I think we’re good to go. Not ready to pop open the 7.62 cans yet, but this is not the time to be panic buying. You have to have made a lifestyle of being ready for anything. We’ve been preaching that sermon for 23-years. Right here.
Remember that a Drought is what turned the collapse in 1929 into a full-on Depression. This time, failure of the supply chain to recover, poses the same risk. I just wish we have a political class that knew when to STFU and deal-straight with The People.
Payers must get lost in space, eh?
Write when your cardboard is ready (take off the packing tape) and your seedlings are up. Day-trade the markets, Life-trade everything else.