Ever work on a serial data recorder? Lots of fun. One of the companies I worked for – back in the day – invented a data recorder used to capture RS-232 data when we were instrumenting the HEV Challenge run by Argonne National Labs about 20-years ago.
Besides giving me “more than the average Bear’s” insight into electric vehicle designs, it was a useful course in data collection and aggregation. Chief guru on that project was a fellow (Steve K.) but damned if I can remember whether it was a flash part or some other memory scheme.
Point of this? (Besides raising the specter of dementia at my age, lol.)
Data always matters.
And in finance the data is always RELATED.
Dependencies in Ure Depends
Take this “lumber crisis” we’re now in.
If you have a good sense of technical analysis, a look at the long term contract price over on Fin Viz suggests that Lumber is done blowing off. Even with bad eyes, I can count, up to the recent peak, a very nice 5-wave Elliott advance. And from there was a 1-down, 2-up, and we might infer a major decline due now would open the 3-down wave which MIGHT send lumber packing.
Waves like this (go ahead, there are lots of free courses including this one) arise due to information propagation and reaction time constants, near as I can figure.
When a wave is building, people notice. They run out (like they did with toilet paper) and that fuels the blow-off peak. Eventually, people change their habits and create work-arounds. Demand falls. Prices follow shortly thereafter.
If you look around our Comments section, you’ll find a recounting of a new home build screaming up from $25K in materials to over $100K. At some point the project crossed into “undoable because of financial aspects.” Project dies. Demand for lumber drops. Prices follow.
Slow Joe’s hosing of the homebuilding market with higher tariff’s announced for Canadian lumber was not only ill-advised, but signaled the utter lack of financial comprehension in Swamp 2 (the sequel).
While Canadians who work the woods are pissed (U.S. move to double tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber is ‘egregious,’ says BC Lumber Trade Council | Globalnews.ca) I’m actually thankful. Lumber prices will likely fall in the Fall. And I won’t be doing my large deck rebuild until cooler weather arrives.
Since my buddy the Major is coming down in October, besides cheap wood, I expect to enjoy some “Washington state liberal political prisoner refugee “free labor.” Being an officer (rtd.), he’ll pretty much work for beer and steak and the chance to be around sensible people. (I won’t tell if you don’t. But, I digress.)
For your own planning, see CNBC’s “Suffering from sticker shock? Here are 3 things you shouldn’t buy now while prices are high”
Is BTC in Charge?
About 6:30 AM local time, I noticed BTC prices were falling on their ass – again.
$35,272 with 100-minutes to the stock and bond opening.
Let’s see if we can “pull it all together” now:
- We are running a mental “data logger” noticing the price (in our comma-delimited mind-sheet) of BTC.
- After that comma is another column on the mind-sheet: S&P 500 Futures. Which 100 -minutes ahead of the opening was +16.
- The second comma was ahead of the Dow futures (+155).
- The third led the NASDAQ composite futures (+46).
I won’t spoil Ure fun by telling you what I think may come into view when we load all the data into the mental chart-space.
But you should have a decent idea of the thought process now: BTC breaks to the downside. Futures are oblivious.
The question is “Who’s right?”
As if this isn’t enough of a financial speculation course, let me put the Maraschino on it: The Dollar began to jump strongly higher as BTC fell.
One can almost hear the financial gearing change that could come near the close today. Besides, who wants to bet on unexpectedly GOOD news over a three-day weekend? You kidding me?
Additional Data Fields
International Trade, Personal Incomes, and Retail Inventories also hold potential to move markets. But they only do so once a month. Less overhead on your mental data-logger.
Shall we fill in the “slow rollers” anyway? I suppose…
Personal Income first:
“Personal income decreased $3.21 trillion, or 13.1 percent at a monthly rate, while consumer spending increased $80.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, in April. Economic impact payments established by the American Rescue Plan Act, declined sharply in April. In addition to presenting estimates for April 2021, these highlights provide comparisons to February 2020, the last month before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.”
So…er…end lockdowns and go broke? Hmm…
“The advance international trade deficit in goods decreased to $85.2 billion in April from $92.0 billion in March as exports increased and imports decreased.”
And on Inventories:
Now that You’re Data Heavy…
If you aren’t used to holding a lot of data in your head – and being able to parse it down into “mental chart presentations” there are some exercises which will improve your skills.
The first is to build a semi-sophisticated financial model. My first big one was dubbed ALFMS – airline financial modeling system. You inserted a ton of variables (*passenger load factor blocked by ticket prices, over a ton of city-pairs) and both the fixed costs (rents, and even salaries in SG&A act fixed) plus the variable costs (aircraft cycles, stage lengths, and so forth).
With such a model two things happen: Your financial detective work will reveal the “gearing behind the curtain” of certain factors. Plus you can then use the “model” to predict by 2-weeks to a month in advance how “actual” will come in. One of the biggest challenges for management is the immediacy of data. Or, when arranging a counter-cyclical aircraft lease, what being down one jet will do to the balance of the fleet.
The second mental-data improvement exercise (if you haven’t talked yourself into an airline gig) is to play chess. Without a board. The trick, of course, is to really focus on the board in your mind’s eye. Sadly, for people like me, if check doesn’t happen in 10-moves, or so, ADHD kicks over the board. Managing blood sugar and caffeine levels can also be usefully studied in this manner.
Never done checkers without a board, but that would be a good substitute for woke players who don’t want to support the power structure, as in chess. LOL.
I’ll be the toss boss:
Bioweapon fall-out? Remember, we have been hinting to watch the long-term health fall-out in areas like heart disease following CV-19? Go read COVID-19 Patients Are Getting Diagnosed With Little-Known Illnesses | in Time.
Meanwhile,. we’re getting to like Summit News for calling BS on the NYT: New York Times COVID Reporter Says It’s “Racist” to Discuss Wuhan Lab Leak Theory – Summit News. Yes, the woke joke is spreading. Topic for Peoplenomics next week.
Solar doesn’t work (well) at night. Still, we noticed SB Energy Announces Closing of Financing and Building of 1.7GW of Solar Projects Across California and Texas. Now, if we only needed power in the daytime. On sunny days. Not weekends…
Around the Ranch: Holiday!
I’ll be tinkering with our Creality print farm this weekend. Might even read Additive Manufacturing Users Group Names Technical Competition Winners. If time allows, might even get to the laser-engraving CNC machine. Always wanted to laser-etch glassware.
Got BBQ Propane? My buddy Gaye Levy has an update over on her site you may want to read first: Propane for Preppers 3.0: The Complete Book Part 1 | Strategic Living (strategiclivingblog.com).
Speaking of Friends: Gaye and I have been friends now for 50-years. The Major and I have been pals for 68-years. Even our consigliere is over the 20-year mark, now. Key point for the holiday weekend is to appreciate the positive people in your Life who make the road more fun.
Studio Updates: Our little home 16-track is now running on a more recent computer: Picked up a 16 Gig, 1/2 TB SSD i-7 machine refurb. Super cheap. A total bitch to get working, though. FireWire required. PCI card.
SFF doesn’t give much wiggle room for Mr. Fat Hands. Although I finally conquered the pesky Lenova “error: 1962 no operating system found.” Ended up doing an OS restore i n the process only to discovered that all the high-end music software has to be reinstalled. Could someone tell MSFT to ONLY kill their files in C:\Program Files when doing a restore? Please? (Shit that was frustrating!) GB’s of downloads. And just when I was on task, here came the clouds and T-storms. And there went the satcoms. Double-shit.
Mower Monday? We’ll see: Rain today and tomorrow (septic roulette may return). With only partly sunny on tap for Sunday and Monday about 50-50 on whether the ground will be dry enough to drive the new rider on. People “in the city” don’t realize how badly you can screw up natural ground by driving (even walking) on it when saturated. Bet me most “environmental warriors” can’t even keep a fish tank well? Let alone walk lightly on the Earth when it matters…
OK, life beyond curmudgeoning beckons. A quick run to town for drugs (Elaine’s) and more steak and sour cream. Someone really likes his stroganoff…
Click-time the BTC was back up to $36,600 but we are still wondering: Who’s really in charge here? (Zeus the cat?)
Write when you get rich,