BTC Vs. Stocks: Who’s In Charge Here?

Ever work on a serial data recorder?  Lots of fun.  One of the companies I worked for – back in the day – invented a data recorder used to capture RS-232 data when we were instrumenting the HEV Challenge run by Argonne National Labs about 20-years ago.

Besides giving me “more than the average Bear’s” insight into electric vehicle designs, it was a useful course in data collection and aggregation.  Chief guru on that project was a fellow (Steve K.) but damned if I can remember whether it was a flash part or some other memory scheme.

Point of this?  (Besides raising the specter of dementia at my age, lol.)

Data always matters.

And in finance the data is always RELATED.

Dependencies in Ure Depends

Take this “lumber crisis” we’re now in.

If you have a good sense of technical analysis, a look at the long term contract price over on Fin Viz suggests that Lumber is done blowing off.  Even with bad eyes, I can count, up to the recent peak, a very nice 5-wave Elliott advance.  And from there was a 1-down, 2-up, and we might infer a major decline due now would open the 3-down wave which MIGHT send lumber packing.

Waves like this (go ahead, there are lots of free courses including this one) arise due to information propagation and reaction time constants, near as I can figure.

When a wave is building, people notice.  They run out (like they did with toilet paper) and that fuels the blow-off peak.  Eventually, people change their habits and create work-arounds.  Demand falls.  Prices follow shortly thereafter.

If you look around our Comments section, you’ll find a recounting of a new home build screaming up from $25K in materials to over $100K.  At some point the project crossed into “undoable because of financial aspects.”  Project dies. Demand for lumber drops.  Prices follow.

Slow Joe’s hosing of the homebuilding market with higher tariff’s announced for Canadian lumber was not only ill-advised, but signaled the utter lack of financial comprehension in Swamp 2 (the sequel).

While Canadians who work the woods are pissed (U.S. move to double tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber is ‘egregious,’ says BC Lumber Trade Council | I’m actually thankful.  Lumber prices will likely fall in the Fall.  And I won’t be doing my large deck rebuild until cooler weather arrives.

Since my buddy the Major is coming down in October, besides cheap wood, I expect to enjoy some “Washington state liberal political prisoner refugee “free labor.”  Being an officer (rtd.), he’ll pretty much work for beer and steak and the chance to be around sensible people. (I won’t tell if you don’t. But, I digress.)

For your own planning, see CNBC’s “Suffering from sticker shock? Here are 3 things you shouldn’t buy now while prices are high”

Is BTC in Charge?

About 6:30 AM local time, I noticed BTC prices were falling on their ass – again.

$35,272 with 100-minutes to the stock and bond opening.

Let’s see if we can “pull it all together” now:

  • We are running a mental “data logger” noticing the price (in our comma-delimited mind-sheet) of BTC.
  • After that comma is another column on the mind-sheet:  S&P 500 Futures.  Which 100 -minutes ahead of the opening was +16.
  • The second comma was ahead of the Dow futures (+155).
  • The third led the NASDAQ composite futures (+46).

I won’t spoil Ure fun by telling you what I think may come into view when we load all the data into the mental chart-space.

But you should have a decent idea of the thought process now:  BTC breaks to the downside.  Futures are oblivious.

The question is “Who’s right?”

As if this isn’t enough of a financial speculation course, let me put the Maraschino on it:  The Dollar began to jump strongly higher as BTC fell.

One can almost hear the financial gearing change that could come near the close today.  Besides, who wants to bet on  unexpectedly GOOD news over a three-day weekend?  You kidding me?

Additional Data Fields

International Trade, Personal Incomes, and Retail Inventories also hold potential to move markets.  But they only do so once a month.  Less overhead on your mental data-logger.

Shall we fill in the “slow rollers” anyway?  I suppose…

Personal Income first:

“Personal income decreased $3.21 trillion, or 13.1 percent at a monthly rate, while consumer spending increased $80.3 billion, or 0.5 percent, in April. Economic impact payments established by the American Rescue Plan Act, declined sharply in April. In addition to presenting estimates for April 2021, these highlights provide comparisons to February 2020, the last month before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.”

So…er…end lockdowns and go broke? Hmm…

Trade Improves

“The advance international trade deficit in goods decreased to $85.2 billion in April from $92.0 billion in March as exports increased and imports decreased.”

And on Inventories:

Now that You’re Data Heavy…

If you aren’t used to holding a lot of data in your head – and being able to parse it down into “mental chart presentations” there are some exercises which will improve your skills.

The first is to build a semi-sophisticated financial model.  My first big one was dubbed ALFMS – airline financial modeling system.  You inserted a ton of variables (*passenger load factor blocked by ticket prices, over a ton of city-pairs) and both the fixed costs (rents, and even salaries in SG&A act fixed) plus the variable costs (aircraft cycles, stage lengths, and so forth).

With such a model two things happen:  Your financial detective work will reveal the “gearing behind the curtain” of certain factors.  Plus you can then use the “model” to predict by 2-weeks to a month in advance how “actual” will come in.  One of the biggest challenges for management is the immediacy of data.  Or, when arranging a counter-cyclical aircraft lease, what being down one jet will do to the balance of the fleet.

The second mental-data improvement exercise (if you haven’t talked yourself into an airline gig) is to play chess.  Without a board.  The trick, of course, is to really focus on the board in your mind’s eye.  Sadly, for people like me, if check doesn’t happen in 10-moves, or so, ADHD kicks over the board.  Managing blood sugar and caffeine levels can also be usefully studied in this manner.

Never done checkers without a board, but that would be a good substitute for woke players who don’t want to support the power structure, as in chess. LOL.

Dart Board

I’ll be the toss boss:

Bioweapon fall-out?  Remember, we have been hinting to watch the long-term health fall-out in areas like heart disease following CV-19?  Go read COVID-19 Patients Are Getting Diagnosed With Little-Known Illnesses | in Time.

Meanwhile,. we’re getting to like Summit News for calling BS on the NYT:  New York Times COVID Reporter Says It’s “Racist” to Discuss Wuhan Lab Leak Theory – Summit News.   Yes, the woke joke is spreading.  Topic for Peoplenomics next week.

Solar doesn’t work (well) at night.  Still, we noticed SB Energy Announces Closing of Financing and Building of 1.7GW of Solar Projects Across California and Texas.  Now, if we only needed power in the daytime.  On sunny days.  Not weekends…

Around the Ranch:  Holiday!

I’ll be tinkering with our Creality print farm this weekend.  Might even read Additive Manufacturing Users Group Names Technical Competition Winners. If time allows, might even get to the laser-engraving CNC machine.  Always wanted to laser-etch glassware.

Got BBQ Propane?  My buddy Gaye Levy has an update over on her site you may want to read first:  Propane for Preppers 3.0: The Complete Book Part 1 | Strategic Living (

Speaking of Friends:  Gaye and I have been friends now for 50-years.  The Major and I have been pals for 68-years.  Even our consigliere is over the 20-year mark, now.  Key point for the holiday weekend is to appreciate the positive people in your Life who make the road more fun.

Studio Updates:  Our little home 16-track is now running on a more recent computer:  Picked up a 16 Gig, 1/2 TB SSD i-7 machine refurb.  Super cheap. A total bitch to get working, though. FireWire required.  PCI card.

SFF doesn’t give much wiggle room for Mr. Fat Hands. Although I finally conquered the pesky Lenovaerror: 1962 no operating system found.”  Ended up doing an OS restore i n the process only to discovered that all the high-end music software has to be reinstalled. Could someone tell MSFT to ONLY kill their files in C:\Program Files when doing a restore?  Please?  (Shit that was frustrating!)   GB’s of downloads.  And just when I was on task, here came the clouds and T-storms.  And there went the satcoms.  Double-shit.

Mower Monday?   We’ll see: Rain today and tomorrow (septic roulette may return).  With only partly sunny on tap for Sunday and Monday about 50-50 on whether the ground will be dry enough to drive the new rider on.  People “in the city” don’t realize how badly you can screw up natural ground by driving (even walking) on it when saturated.  Bet me most “environmental warriors” can’t even keep a fish tank well?  Let alone walk lightly on the Earth when it matters…

OK, life beyond curmudgeoning beckons.  A quick run to town for drugs (Elaine’s) and more steak and sour cream.  Someone really likes his stroganoff…

Click-time the BTC was back up to $36,600 but we are still wondering:  Who’s really in charge here?  (Zeus the cat?)

Write when you get rich,

34 thoughts on “BTC Vs. Stocks: Who’s In Charge Here?”

  1. You suggested that the major would work (for a friend) for beer and steak. That’s inflation for you. I’ll bet he used to work for Pizza.

  2. I’m watcing BTC drop as well…..I’m delighted that we were able to sell our BTC during this rise and pay off our house. Now it can drop!

  3. Hey George I need a favor. My two youngest boys are leaving next Wednesday on a motorcycle trip down to see my oldest son who lives North of Denton. I need you to get rid of this rain pattern please! LOL I wish it was that easy. Oh well we have rain gear but I sure hope we get lucky and don’t have to use it.

    Have a great weekend.

      • I think he means for you to tune that gigantic phased array in your backyard for some toasty Ionospheric heating!

    • ” I need you to get rid of this rain pattern please! ”

      Scott… I have heard if you play the song below over and over the rain will end. (AND if it doesnt .. you may get some stares as you do the shimmy shunga to the music)

  4. Incomes record Down, Prices increasing at record Up rate..

    – G, U seeing what the coot be seeing ? I mean besides the another lifetime buying opportunity to own a piece of da bitcoinz phenom.

    Been buying Copper, Silver, Gold mining stocks/(options), went long Oil (USO) this week. Long term trend for coot is (ICtR) Inflation Continues to Rage.
    – This current lot econ geniuses at fed never knew the fear/horror of raging Inflation, and how hard it is to contain once that genie out of the bottle – yeah Im dreaming about the carnage about to wrought on world economy..Fire! lock&load boys girls – its here.

  5. Not to offend Zeus, but BTC is finishing the dead cat bounce and on the way back down. Not that you care :)

    Its a shake-out and also makes a nice case for regulation which I’m sure the new guard in the SEC (just like the old Garde) would like to move forward with. As you know, those things usually require ‘an event’ to JumpStart.

  6. A couple of bright lights in the news –
    This was a fun one – “GLORIOUS! Huge “TRUMP WON” Banner Lowered in Yankee Stadium at Thursday Night’s Game”

    And this was a stroke of sanity I hope will continue in the Texas Legislature –
    “Chinese Communist Party Attempting to Latch Onto Texas Power Grid”

    But with the Dims running out the clock on a third bill in the Texas Legislature aimed at making people play in sports under the gender they were BORN with we’ll have to wait a bit more for that to TRANS-pire.

  7. Commodities in general are inflating; the lumber market is in a balloon. Areas where there is little human food production, or are stricken with drought, are being set up to see massive food price increases. I’m not LDS, but if you live in those areas, and you don’t have food reserves, especially protein, you may be at risk in the coming winter season.
    LOOB has reported he is having problems procuring food supplies. With the western half of the country experiencing serious drought, and a general run-up in food commodity prices underway, his observations are consistent with the larger market conditions. Pay attention, and do your planning now, not at the end of a crop failure growing season.

    • What makes it tough to get our grocery order is that I generally buy once a the snack cake guy he ordered 700 cases for his weeks order and received 70..the average
      If I go do my shopping I usually have to go to several stores since they have a hard time keeping stock on hand.
      It’s better but not up to par and with fuel prices on the rise and a broken supply chain. Things could escalate several times worse than a year ago.
      I have noticed Some products a using cheaper product to fill the cans..

      • So does that mean we should expect Little Debbie prices to balloon next? Oh the horror.

      • “So does that mean we should expect Little Debbie prices to balloon next?”

        Actually and with a sad tone..yes. the owner of the business here was telling me that they told him prices are going up and product size down.
        There are some things they are telling him that they are having a hard time getting.

  8. George,
    To answer your rhetorical question, yes. I remember the days of dedicated data lines; stand alone modems (300 baud); VT 100s; Epson 7 pin printers and the fun of getting it all to work with a remote service. Searching chemical abstracts online beat the bell out of a hand search.

  9. I’ve been wondering if this ‘long COVID’ could mostly be psychosomatic, due to all the societal changes wrought by the pandemic, and the resulting chronic stress people may experience. Kind of like depression- many times it is a mental state, resulting in a physical illness.

  10. Yo Mr Reporter Dude,

    wats up with New Eastern Outlook (NEO site) being taken down for like 2 weeks ?

    how is it the US Army can attack US citizens in 2021 – and nobody says or does shit about it ? WTF happened to my Country, Society, Honesty and Decency ?

    Can U say hello Stasi ?

    I’m guessing we never really had any of that H&D in USA govmint, it was just covered up much better like in the good ole dayz.

    us cyper command and intelligence(hahaha) school @ fort huachuca/AZ, as well us military drone assassination HQ.
    Attacks started right after following article was posted on NEO by author& former Marine/nam vet – “uncle gordy”.

    gee wonder why “they” (humanities adversaries) dont want any one seeing that info..

    Got Ivermectin? calling dr gupta, dr gupta?

  11. Key point for the holiday weekend is to appreciate the positive people in your Life who make the road more fun.”

    Amen George….its so easy to get so busy that we forget those that are there for us.
    When I got sick it jumped out at me.. and the year we went without an income it became painfully obvious who had our backs. Everyone vanished as if we had the plaque..
    Taking a few moments to be thankful for those around us..
    Give Lady Elaine a huge hug..

  12. It’s the end of May — will we sell and go away???

    Anyone know of a “profitable” stock picking service since GU does not give investment advice. I know enough about about TA; The problem is always which ones to check out since there are soo many.

    I’m mostly interested in unexpected percentage changes from previous days. Who isn’t?? ;-))

    Definitely NOT interested in EW history bullcrap!!

      • Thank you George, I use “FINVIZ” with satisfaction! I meant to get results of a “successful screener” who may be still more competent in the task than I am.

        I’m doing it for my entertainment only. It provides some pleasure for an old person living by himself.

  13. Ran to the store to get fries.. the owner of a local pub was there and the conversation in prices came up. They had to take things off the menu because the price went up so much that no one could afford it..
    The beginning of it..

  14. China is a place not a race. The virus comes from a place and that place is China.

    Enjoy the long weekend, folks.

  15. “Personal income decreased $3.21 trillion”

    So, what is that in 1966 dollars, about 33 bucks…?

    “The advance international trade deficit in goods decreased to $85.2 billion in April from $92.0 billion in March”

    I still remember your near-apoplectic reaction when the defect first hit $35bln…

  16. Another day of dollar destroying . And it ain’t government, FED and facist state? Yeah right

  17. George,

    I am close friends with two guys, with two separate restaurants. They are both telling me that prices have skyrocketed lately. Chicken has gone from $40 per box to $130, if you can get it. Other place, wings went from $30 to $110.

    Local, family owned lumber/hardware store says they can’t get PVC pipe, shingles, etc. Price lately for a 10 foot treated 2 x 4 was $10. I can remember buying 2 x 4 studs for my construction company for 89 cents. Plywood prices are so high here that a guy posted a Craigslist ad wanting to trade one sheet of 1/2 plywood for a new Corvette. Just a joke, but that plywood is going for $53 for CDX, which I used for concrete forming.

    Useless dollar, and more useless government.

    • “Price lately for a 10 foot treated 2 x 4 was $10”

      Buy a bunk of them at that price. I wasin abig box store 2 days ago and an 8 foot 2 by 4 was 15.00
      A small handy panel was 40 and in this project of making an indirect evaporation air conditioner was just shy a hundred..per sheet..
      I am friends with the manager and I had him run up a materials list for a small kit home. A couple of years ago the cost was right at 25 grand now a hundred grand more..

    • Have a pie or some vegetables . Better for you . Smart pasta is great as well . Lazy brainwashed food . Go to Macca or KFC if you need comfort

  18. I notice Creepy Joe’s handlers left his fly open, yesterday…

    ‘Looks like she’s 19’: Uproar after Biden’s remarks about girl at Virginia military base

    At ease, Joe.

    President Joe Biden raised eyebrows — and a few alarms — Friday when he lavishly complimented a little girl on her appearance during remarks at a Virginia military base.

    “I love those barrettes in your hair, man,” Biden said. “I tell you what, look at her, she looks like she’s 19 years old, sitting there like a little lady with her legs crossed.”

    The girl in question, who appeared to be elementary school age, had joined her parents and two older brothers on the podium while her mother introduced the president at Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Hampton, Virginia.

    “That’s pretty *&^%$!ed up,” tweeted longtime Republican consultant Nathan Wurtzel, who joked in a subsequent tweet: “I guess this explains the Lincoln Project support.”

    I snagged this from the NYPost. Entire article may be read here:

    or here:

    Or in the UK here:

    Or in 382,000 other places by the time George posts this.

    Now, WTF?

    I mean, why in the world would Creepy Joe’s handlers let him off his leash long enough to refresh everyone’s minds regarding his creeper status? Are the puppetmeisters THAT stupid, or are they so confident in our Ministry of Truth that they don’t feel they need worry…?

      • Um, that was how Joe came to actual prominence in the first place.

        Mr. Soros did not place ol’ “35 years of racist, sexist, pervy, nothingburger” Joe on Mr. Obama’s ticket because he thought Biden would make a good administrator. It was done to make the alternative so unpalatable that no matter how egregious Obama’s deviations were from law, the Constitution, and best practices, and how far his overreach went, no one in their right mind would even consider impeaching him.

        The reason Soros selected Kammy as Joe’s running mate was to scare Republicans and conservatives into never pressing for an impeachment or pressing to “25th Amendment” his ass out of office. This is also why Pelosi pressed for her own hangman’s lever — so she could throw the switch on Joe, should he choose not to leave when he’s told to do so…

  19. “So does that mean we should expect Little Debbie prices to balloon next?”

    Actually and with a sad tone..yes. the owner of the business here was telling me that they told him prices are going up and product size down.
    There are some things they are telling him that they are having a hard time getting.

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