George Ure

All kinds of people are likely to be disappointed by the morning’s financial developments.  I mean besides the median price of Bitcoins at Mt. Gox showing $514.50 although other places are showing a more optimistic $647.

No, we have larger (and more mainstream) fish to fry.

For one thing, Asia, which has been playing its Lazarus role (rising from the dead, you getting this?) seems to have suffered a relapse overnight.  Japan was whacked for a 1.8% loss that pounded the Nikkei down to 14,534.75 while the behemoth China was thrown for a 0.54% loss, but hasn’t completely given up the ghost yet.

Which then circles us around to Europe where, when I looked early, the kneelers were being tossed for a 41-point loss on the Footsie, the Huns were down 27 points (and probably still pissed that the US can’t deliver all their gold they entrusted us with, but that’ll show ‘em who’s boss, right?) and the French weren’t exactly toasting, being down almost 14 points.

Which brings us to this morning’s early look at the futures here, which suggested a Dow down 60, or so.

But that’s only the start.  It’s a long ways to Friday;s close,  And with that as foreplay (which I was never very good at, not being patient and all) along to this morning’s Number du Jour:  Retail Sales just out.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $427.8 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the
previous month, but 2.6 percent (±0.9%) above January 2013. Total sales for the November 2013 through January 2014 period were up 3.4
percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The November to December 2013 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (±0.5%)*
to -0.1 percent (±0.3%)*.
Retail trade sales were down 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from December 2013, but 2.6 percent (± 1.1%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up
6.5 percent (±2.3%) from January 2013 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 4.1 percent (±3.2%) from last year.

You go ponder what a nonstore retailer is for me, would you?  Is that like eBay Motors, or what?

All of which would be fine except that the reality of the non-recovery just keeps leaking out all over the place.

For one thing, as measured by the Fed’s M2, there was 5.3% more money sloshing around the country this December compared with ghost of retail sales past.  (I didn’t make this up, and I modestly left out the 8.2% increase in M1 sloshing about.)

And as that little chart on the right says (IF you take the time to look at it with the brain engaged) the ONLY thing that is keeping the economy out of the double dip recessions I told you to expect was auto sales.

And as our way of thanking the Auto Industry for saving America again, I plan drive by a dealership this week.

There will be some additional numbers out tomorrow in the form of import (ant) prices and the Fed’s industrial production and capacity numbers.  But fundamentally, the market is trying to figure out what to do with what I’ve been writing about for months now:  The arrival of Ure’s Vortex.

That’s when America (and the whole world, but let’s stick with the US because it is all about us, right?) will have to come to terms with some ugly realities:

• We have a lame duck president
• The people lining up as possible successors are also mostly lame
• Robots are coming to take all our jobs and Google’s self-driving car should scare the shit out of you.
• Resource depletion is real
• Abiotic oil can in no way keep up with thirsty world.
• There is deflation in the wings and…
• We can’t seem to figure out what to make with all these people and factories, except war…since no one seems to remember our Peoplenomics report on Dr. Ron’s Leisure Class and a society of consumers who are hell bent on tourism and fine living ain’t something the powers that be want to share.

All of which will go (toilet-flushing vortex like) down sucking the economy with it, until some geniuses figure out (near the exact bottom of the Long Wave low) that the best way to get bootstrapped up is by even more inflation – like never before, and – long as we’re at it – let’s have a war.

Speaking of which, some reader took me to task and said he’d never read another column of mine because he figured that I’m pro war.  Sent me a poison-troll note hoping my kids would be on the front line.

Well, a couple of points, just so we’re clear (and don’t let the door slam you on the ass on the way out):  First,  I am not in favor of war.  Killing people isn’t fun and it’s messy.  BUT second (and the point this former reader didn’t get, which is why he’s a former reader now bound for lower IQ-oriented reading) is that ALL THE DATA SAYS WAR FOLLOWS DEPRESSIONS.

Now I can stand here on the shoreline and scream at the tide of human history all day along and be a bleeding heart liberal.  Or, I can look at the facts, admit “Say!  This doesn’t all end pretty, does it?” and get on with life in the meantime.  Planning a few hedges along the way, including not hanging around major population centers and becoming as close to self-sufficient as I can.

And being ready at a moments notice to get the kids on  airplanes, busses, or even horseback to come down to our place at the end of civilization to chill while the world flushes itself.  You missed yesterday’s Peoplenomics on the mess of 1342-1345 and the 100-Years War that followed.  Your bad.

It’s not a matter of IF humanity is going to screw up again, only this time in much nearer world-ending ways.  We have a few hundred thousand years of history that argue this is how the gene pool gets cleaned out and only aggressive, self-interested and violent people rise to positions of power.

And for those of us who aren’t?  Well, we can parallel-trade the bad guys and make a few bucks for the kitty in the middle of the flush, can we not?

Only a fool would look at the fan (spinning so fast you can’t see the blades) and assume they are not there.  Painful surprise, trust me.

Similarly, only a fool would read the daily news and not notice a peculiar (and none-too-pleasant) odor and wonder  “Gee, what happens next?”

If may not happen fast, today, or next week, but long wave economics argues that cyclical destruction of ‘life as you knew it” is baked in the cake with the interest-nearing models. 

Anyone ever done a study of whether business cycles happen under Sharia banking?  Another research project is born.

One of my designated smart-guy friends (Stephen R) sent me a very good note and chart on where things are going: “Russell 2000  Fast Stochastic (blue line) versus Slow Stochastic (red line) (Say get out of Stock Market) Picture is the same for the Dow Jones and NYSE.”

And while you’re at it, have you given any thought to getting out of Dodge, too?

The Dow looks to open down almost a hundred and my gut (going against my own trading model) makes me feel like a gunslinger, for sure.  (Or it proves I’m an idiot, all things in time…)

Oh look!  Futures are down a hundred now.

More fun, merriment, and nasal entertainment  after this…

Buyers and Sellers

Big Story in the Wall St. Journal this morning about how Comcast has agreed to buy Time Warner cable for $45-billion smackeroos.

Despite my high-powered consulting operation, somehow they overlooked calling me – either side.  Which is a damn shame because whether this merger makes sense comes down to one ugly/nasty:  Technology shift.

Everyone know that the future is fiber – I mean that’s be just obvious as hell for how long?  Forever?

So, with the local telcos laying in fiber, and with lambdas coming to the desktop, seems to me that the company that groks the impact of more fiber, more fiber, repeat after me, “More FIBER!” best is the one that you should invest in.

Unless someone is going to start buying up telcos with their money in order to start owning more backbone…. Hmmm…

Iran’s Getting Nervous Again

In case you’ve missed “the big game” here, it’s that the Israelis are patiently waiting to see what compliance levels will come from Iran as a result of the nuclear deal.

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My head’s beginning to hurt again.  This whole topic is like a cross between an Excedrin headache and the Energizer Bunny – it hurts like hell and it just keeps running, and running, and…..

So here’s this email from Oilman2 to launch with the first cup of bean:

Global Warming – pander no longer… unless it is generating you lots of profits…

[ Link to Dr. Roy Spencer’s site “95% of Climate Models Agree: The observations must be wrong! ]

Remember that I once told you that the entire industrial revolution is as thin as the hair on a gnats ass when looking at geologic timeline??  Remember me telling you we had 20+% more CO2 in the Permian and more still Carboniferous periods??

George, remember your adage, like Occams Razor…??
“Everything is a business model”

I think the science is unraveling the hype at lots of levels, but especially when the UN starts backing away.  Time, I think, that you took a stand. Just back it up with good links about the solar condition, its effects on our other planets and sites like the one above.

Unless it will lose readers…??  But I think it will actually gain some, with an article like, “Climate Change: Who Is Making the Money?” or “What Will Institutions and Goverments Do When People Refuse to Believe Pseudo-science?”

Oilman2

Well, we already know some of the answers to that.  We know Al Gore, for example, would have to cobble up a different speech for the rubber chicken circuit without the marketing angle of warming.  We know that Agenda 21 and the move by non-representative government to keep the public off public lands has skin in the game.  And we know that carbon trading is like swapping wife-beating credits. Or husband-beating credits, to keep the analogy egalitarian…

It’s like the old joke around Wall Street:  “So, where are the customer’s yachts?”  Guffaws among the rich follow….

Obviously, Global Warming is a marketing deal, but then look around you and ask “What isn’t?”

Yesterday’s Peoplenomics discussion about why studying earthquakes is important if you want to understand financial markets is related to the issues raised by global warming.  Except in a different sense.

You need to go back to the classic Report from Iron Mountain ( On the accessibility and Desirability of Peace)  to come up with the real driver:  People only accept the “rules of government” if there are some damn good reasons to.

Although Leonard Lewin’s book was widely discredited as a hoax for pointing this out, there’s another group that believes Lewin may have changed the names and places around, but as to the ideas?  Nope…they’ve stood up to the test of time really damn well.

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Normally, this is the kind of topic that would be reserved for Peoplenomics subscribers, but because it’s a broad interest area, and because speculation is so damn much fun, and since you’re going to share this article with 5 of your closest friends (right? right?) I’m going to have a discussion with you this morning about the outlook matrix for bitcoin.

If you have been following the press reports lately, you’ll know that there have been some real issues for the cryptomoney folks over the past week and this is on top of the US feds moving against some of the bitcoiners who MAY have been involved, ever for peripherally, in the Silk Road case, which – if you live under a tree – was the net’s largest [purported] clearinghouse for online drug deals.

Whether or not the $164-million worth of bitcoins is actually recovered by Peter Ward is something that’s only of passing interest.  As far as I know, he’s not a subscriber.

Seeing as or own drug use us limited to the OTC and Dr. prescribed sort, we naturally wouldn’t know about anything else, unless we were in Colorado or Washington, and in the latter case, we’re properly licensed and might have some additional insights…but I digress.

Bitcoins, when I looked this morning were being quoted on the MtGox boards showed $571 –$575 dollars to the bitcoin. And bitcoiners had every right to be nervous Monday because of problems at Mt. Gox.

While I’m in the “Who cares?” camp – even now – there is a huge learning opportunity that comes from a review of charts of bitcoin prices.

As you can see (right, click to enlarge), there are at least four ways the market could react going forward from today.

Left to right:  The first possibility is that there will be a larger Elliott wave “three up” arise.  In which case, we wouldn’t be surprised to see bitcoin prices soar to perhaps the $3,000 range.  No, that’s not a prediction, just how that Elliott count works out.

Our second Elliott outcome isn’t so pretty.  Under this one, the peak is in, we have had one wave down, we’ve also finished the “wave 2 bounce” and we’re now headed straight to perdition.  Again, not a forecast, just one of the chart options on the table.

The third choice would be that price action is telling us this is a pendant and when pendants appear, they often roar ahead so that the next move up, starting from the pointy end of the Pendant formation, will be about the same distance up as the “flagpole” part of the move.  Pendants (says my copy of Technical Analysis, 7th Ed.) tend to be “middle move” indicators, which often happen about halfway through a major market rally.

And then, last, but not least, is the “fading into history” which is also a possibility.

If I were a lot younger, I might speculate and buy a few hundred bucks worth on the chance that the Elliott (1) count or the Pendant are in play.

Historically, Bitcoins are a terribly important marker of where we are in the Second Depression.  That’s because they are an almost perfect rhyme off the S&H Green Stamps phenomena that took root and blossomed in the Great Depression:

S&H Green Stamps (also called Green Shield Stamps) were trading stamps popular in the United States from the 1930s until the late 1980s. They were distributed as part of a rewards program operated by the Sperry & Hutchinson company (S&H), founded in 1896 by Thomas Sperry and Shelley Byron Hutchinson. During the 1960s, the rewards catalog printed by the company was the largest publication in the United States and the company issued three times as many stamps as the U.S. Postal Service.^[1] Customers would receive stamps at the checkout counter of supermarkets, department stores, and gasoline stations among other retailers, which could be redeemed for products in the catalog. ^[2]

S&H Green Stamps had several competitors, including Gold Bell Gift Stamps (in the Midwest) Triple S Stamps (offered by Grand Union Supermarkets), Gold Bond Stamps, Blue Chip Stamps, Plaid Stamps (a project of A&P Supermarkets), Top Value Stamps, and Eagle Stamps (a project of several divisions of the May Department Stores Co. of St.

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“Fool me once…” seems to be the right way to face the snow and ice in the US Southeast.  There is no end of hand-wringing and one press report I read was lamenting how a local store the reported had checked on was down to “corn and asparagus” – which may not be such a bad thing.   Especially because of the purported anti-cancer effects of a heavy asparagus diet.

I don’t know about you, but for me, the joy of eating asparagus is eating some, then racing to the closest restroom to “beat the smell.”  I haven’t won yet, but next time I eat asparagus, it will be in the throne room with a stopwatch rolling.  Science will win eventually.

—

A couple of readers chimed in on the “wintry mix” note Monday.  One being Tom in Illinois:

It seems like in the old days ( pre-2000’s) we only got significant icing (“ice storms”) very infrequently….

but my point is, something seems to be changing, I don’t know what.

I used to blame it on global warming, ( makes sense, you need warmer layers of atmosphere for winter rain) but who really knows, with the demise of that paradigm? Just more food for thought. We seem to be wrecking the planet  in many unexpected ways.

Right Tom is, of course.

Our next item of note is how the National Weather Service is moving into the space of preppers by putting out an advisory like this one:

WINTER PREPAREDNESS KITS FOR VEHICLES.

IN CASE YOU GET STRANDED IN YOUR VEHICLE DURING WINTER WEATHER…IT  IS IMPORTANT TO HAVE A WINTER PREPAREDNESS KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE.

THIS KIT SHOULD INCLUDE…A SHOVEL…WINDSHIELD SCRAPER WITH A SMALL  BROOM…FLASHLIGHT…BATTERY POWERED RADIO…EXTRA  BATTERIES…WATER…SNACK FOOD…MATCHES…EXTRA SOCKS…HATS AND  MITTENS…A FIRST AID KIT WITH A POCKET KNIFE…BLANKETS…JUMPER  CABLES…EMERGENCY FLARES AND A FLUORESCENT DISTRESS FLAG.

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Stock markets around the world are an an interesting juncture this week, according to our Trading Model.  Seems if there’s a decent rally, the market could zoom off to new highs before our usual “Sell in May and go away” period.  Except, the other side is that if the markets do break down in the next week, or so, we could be in for a major bloodbath in roughly the same period.

Anyone who is even halfway serious about making free money from Wall St. knows it doesn’t matter which way the market is running; trades can be put on either way.  And, despite the periodic demonization of short-side players, there always has to be someone to take the other side of a trade – or there’s no market!

A look at Asia shows a pretty decent (1.77%) rally in Japan overnight and a small quarter percent loss in China.  European markets are nearly as exciting as a bowl of spaghetti.

Which I mention in case you’re trying to “noodle” what to do with your vast fortune:  Don’t think…wait for the market to make its mind up and go with the flow.

The market could “tread water” until the end of the week, too.  It will be Thursday before we get retail sales, which should be down a bit, partly because the number of jobs added in last week’s unemployment data was weaker than the Hallelujah Choir was hoping.  But the real numbers to watch will be out Friday morning when the Fed’s industrial production and utilization arrives only to be followed within the hour by the leading economic indicators.

Sure, the market might move one way, or the other, a bit.  But the real direction may take a bit of doing to sort out.  So if you work on Wall St. this might be the week to take a few days off before things begin to get nutty again.

As the World Spins

I mean this very (or at least mostly) seriously:  This is a very hard week for serious news junkies because so much of the stuff which is making headlines is either inevitable or just plain “don’t matter.”

Take the case of the first NFL football player, Michael Sam, coming out as being gay.  It that going to change anything in the NFL?  Nope, not likely.  Other than  the LBGT movement is one of the few growth “industries” around anymore, it’s not going to impact my plans to try out for the NFL.

What’s much more likely to impact my relationship with football is the fact that I don’t think there are any (repeat ANY) 65-year old walk-ons in the game.

Since media all have to come up with different “angles” on what’s essentially one story, we can’t help but notice that the fact Sam is from Missouri has made it into a few headlines. 
What, like there aren’t gay people in every state?

In our never-ending efforts to point out how the Universe serves up wryrony in heaps and gobs to aware observers, I’ll remind you that Missouri is  what?  The Show Me State.

You can make up your own ending, punchline, or social comment from here:  I just give you the set-up material.

My Swiss Cheesy Immigration Note

By a thin margin, voters in Switzerland have voted to bring back a strong immigration policy.  Which means that now they have crossed the uber klassen of the European Union leadership (a term used advisedly) because the EU thinks that people should be able to come from all manner of poor and oppressed downtrodden backgrounds and be free to trash the home of the gnomes of banking.

Needless to say, the home of the gnomes ain’t to keen on the idea.  For one, it might bring down the term  “average” a few notches.

Not that this has anything to do with the immigration mess here in the US where we have put ourselves into a “must do” on immigration because without it, government programs like Social Security will blow up sooner than later.

But it does get us to wondering if there is anything like a global ranking of national IQs of registered voters.

Well, lookie here!  There is such a ranking.  It shows that Swiss are still ranked 101…slightly above the 100 average IQ.

What’s more, a little study of the data says that Canadians have gone from an average of 97 in 2002 to a more recent (2006) reading of 99.

The average IQ in America, says the data is actually 98 and that prolly explains a lot about voter apathy and who we put in office, doesn’t it?

And, as for my contention that opening up the floodgates of immigration with Mexico would bring down America’s average IQ even more is supposed by the data that says Mexico’s  average IQ was 87 in 2002 and it’s only up to 90 as of 2006.

Know why we won the Cold War with Russia?  I mean besides bankrupting them on defense with the help of the Marcos Gold?  Russia’s average IQ  at the time was 96…up to 97 more recently.  Freedom makes people smart.

So what we SHOULD be importing, instead of Mexicans (suggests the data, not me) is North Koreans.  Average IQ 106…or better, Singaporeans or Honk Kong(ese?)?  Average IQs of 108.

Unfortunately, Canada’s already got that locked up, but look at data on India where all those special visas are being handed out by the high outfits.  You see what?  Maybe people from India aren’t supermen at all…maybe it has more to do with corpslimes trying to get the work done by the cheapest available resource. And yes, that’s why the corpslimes have their eyes on Africa, next…exploitation is profitable as hell.

Gee, what a novel concept, huh?

Ruthless Hillary

No, I have no idea why the Drudge Report is covering the stories about Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House so early.  Reports like “The Hillary Papers: Archive of ‘closest friend’ paints portrait of ruthless First Lady” aren’t going to make her quit the run…

Clinton has been busy retooling her Benghazi actions and now looks like David Petraeus is endorsing her.  If she wins, expect Petraeus to get a gov gig…which is how this stuff rolls.

Meantime, if someone could slip this Wikipedia entry to Matt, that’d be useful, methinks.  Familiarity Heuristic.

In psychology, a heuristic is an easy-to-compute procedure or “rule of thumb” that people use when forming beliefs, judgments or decisions. The familiarity heuristic was developed based on the discovery of the availability heuristic by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman; it happens when the familiar is favored over novel places, people, things. The familiarity heuristic can be applied to various situations that individuals experience in day to day life. When these situations appear similar to previous situations, especially if the individuals are experiencing a high cognitive load, they may regress back to the state of mind in which they have felt or behaved before. This heuristic is useful in most situations and can be applied to many fields of knowledge, however, there are both positives and negatives to this heuristic as well.

Which is why ‘Merica is F/U’ed:  We vote for the familiar rather than best, novel, or different.  Which is why we have a couple of national aristocracies, and the Clintonistas is one of them.  So after Ma Clinton is done in the WH, it will then be time for the daughter to move up ther food chain…kinda like the Bushistas are working their aristocracy.

It’s a brand, don’t you get it?  We keep shopping at the same stores and electing the same has beens because we’re what?  Idiots!

Say, maybe our national IQ is lower now than it was in 2006 – you think?

Power Mongering

Turn about it fair play, figure the Iranians.  So they are sending some military might (a couple of ships) close to the US in order to make it known that we are not the only country that can project force.

Meantime, back home, the Iranians are getting simulated bombings of Tel Aviv and of a US aircraft carrier.

When we do it, it’s called Hollywood.  When they do it, its suddenly propaganda. 

Syriasly

More talks in Geneva.

You know, Syria has a government.  Just like we do.

Now, how would the world act if China or Russia started arming street gangs in LA and calling it a “resistance movement?”  Obviously, that wouldn’t go over well.  But when we do that in Syria it gets labeled peace talks. 

Weirder and weirder every day, ain’t it?

Meantime, the US/West/EU are promoting the uprising in Ukraine the same way, selling the EU and the kinder, gentler brand.

And so, Ukraine government (backed by Russia) has upped the ante by putting anti terrorism forces on alert, and that’s a kind of code word for “Look out for those western backed trouble makers…”

I just wish a big war would break out somewhere:  We need it for the economy otherwise we’re going to be reading forever about stories like creating government jobs for a million a pop.

You see?  This is the kind of back-end problem war fixes….

Do Process or Due Process?

Here we go again…another report that an American citizen – dumb enough to throw in with al Qaeda – will possibly be the target of a US drone strike.

So when you leave America, do you give up rights to due process?  I must have missed that in the Constitution…I was pretty sure I’d read the whole thing.

But then again, I probably missed the part of IRS taxing you after you leave America even if you renounce your citizenship. 

Being an American anymore is kind of like having a tattoo  that won’t come off…   Which gets us to…

Bye-Bye ‘Merica

Say, you don’t think that’s why a record number of Americans renounced their citizenship in 2013, to you?

You gotta read the Forbes article because it’s a girsly reminder how (just as in pre-War Germany) we’re slamming the exit doors shut and punishing those who do escape from citadel ‘Merica.

Quaking Hills

Three minor quakes in the hills of Hollywood are making news. But if you put out a big SoCal paper and it’s a slow news week (like now) what do you write about?

Personally, I’m guessing a big truck on Barham or on the Ventura could have done almost the same thing, but if L.A.

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This week’s “Monday ramble” begins with a note from reader Chris that really made my day Sunday…and I think it will yours, too…

Periodically I do searches for unclaimed property for myself and people I know. Today I decided for shits and giggles to also throw in a few other people’s names including yours. I usually use this site www.missingmoney.com for my searches. Then I end up going direct to each state where more details are available. This one is for Texas: https://mycpa.cpa.state.tx.us/up/Search.jsp where is shows that Direct TV owes you $51.58 from 2011. Also looks like George junior is owed some money in Seattle. You have some small amount of money waiting there too: http://ucp.dor.wa.gov/default.aspx . George juniors appears to be in the amount of $50-$100. Just thought you might like to know.

Near as I can figure it, the www.missingmoney.com is a semi-official collaboration of many states – but not all.  I was going to run a check for a buddy of mine in Hawaii, for example, and was disappointed to see that Hawaii doesn’t appear to be one of the states taking part.

Still, there were other people we know who were due for some cash: One of Elaine’s boys, in addition to G2.  And one of my flying friends.

I was going to tell one of my neighbors that he’s got several items worth claiming, but I though he might think that I’d gone over to the dark side with computer surveillance of neighbors…

No, you’re not likely to get rich, since most of the money is small amounts, sees liker $50-bucks, or so.  But overall – at least insofar as our little slice of dough – the work to fill out the online claim form, and then gather up and mail the related backup documents worked out to working for $300/hour.  Hell yeah…I’m that guy.

Have fun with it and save some of that new-found money for a Peoplenomics subscription and a Valentine for your S.O.

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Table saw connoisseurs gather round…note here from reader Ken as a follow-up to our discussion over yesterday’s bean about the be-all, end-all BEST table saw out there for the money:

For years one of the many rewarding hats that I wore was working in a professional cabinet shop. Now I am not saying that the two thousand dollar saw is a waste of money since I would love to have one in my garage.. but what I do to get the perfect work table is make a set of side tables for the saw.. that way you can put a whole sheet of plywood on it and have the flexibility of being able to rotate the stock. I also love the panel saw guide I have to.. anyway here is a website showing a nifty set of side tables that are easy to make and store yet give you the large table area that would enable you to produce like the larger cabinet shops..( actually that is what we  had at our shop tables for our custom cabinets so we could lay out what we were going to do.. ) In any event something to ponder other than an economic crash on a Thursday afternoon..

Table Saw Extension Wing

Table Saw Outfeed Table

Over at this link (Sears) this is the table saw I have and love.. I used to have one of the older sears saws.. what was bad about that is the storage of it.. you almost had to have a dedicated work shop this saw on the other had is easy to store and use with the extension tables you will be able to store the whole thing in a foot print of thirty inches by thirty six inches..

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First thing I did this morning was ask “Is this the day I become a millionaire?”  Then the answer came to me:  No chance, fool.

Still, betting on the market doing down has not been an entirely bad thing for us financially although early on this morning it looked like the market would bounce a bit, but that would be fine. 

What’s got our attention, more than anything, since we don’t get the jobs numbers until tomorrow, is what is the reference to “the rose people” that keeps peeking out of our www.nostracodeus.com data?  Odd word to come floating up…so you might want to check the site later on this morning because Grady will be updating as soon as the overnight runs are done.

Which leaves us with the Baltic Dry Index as our next topic du jour.  This index has been flopping around at about the 1100 level recently and this morning’s reading is 1092, but only up 6-points.  Spring hasn’t exactly broken out yet and there ain’t no birds singing….

To put that in perspective, that’s about 1/2 of what it was just a few months back, and since the Baltic Dry tends to front-run the more staid economic indicators, it’s worth keeping an eye on where it goes from here because excursions below 1,000 become worrisome.

While the mainstream is trying to figure out how to come up with yet another useless Seahawks human interest follow-up story, we’re more focused around here on what’s going on in China.

China’s state-run media (as opposed to our corporate-controlled media) is playing a strong rhyme off of pre World War II events.  Seems the head of Japan’s NHK Broadcasting service did something of a denial deal about the Nanking Massacre.  Which, if you’re Chinese (or read Wikipedia) is pretty real…

The Nanking Massacre, also known as the Rape of Nanking, was an episode of mass murder and mass rape committed by Japanese troops against Nanking (current official spelling: Nanjing) during the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937. The massacre occurred during a six-week period starting December 13, 1937, the day that the Japanese captured Nanking, which was then the Chinese capital. (See Republic of China). During this period, hundreds of thousands of Chinese civilians and disarmed combatants were murdered by soldiers of the Imperial Japanese Army.^[1][2] Widespread rape and looting also occurred.^[3][4] Historians and witnesses have estimated that 250,000 to 300,000 people were killed.^[5] Several of the key perpetrators of the atrocities, at the time labelled as war crimes, were later tried and found guilty at the Nanjing War Crimes Tribunal, and were executed. Another key perpetrator, Prince Asaka, a member of the Imperial Family, escaped prosecution by having earlier been granted immunity by the Allies.

And so this morning, Xinhua offers this: “Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that such behavior is “a barefaced challenge to the international justice and human conscience.”

Since these events hark back to the middle 30’s, and since we are in a Long Wave economic Depression (which is why interest rates are zero, if you skip the money printing festival) there are even more parallels to the pre-WW II period to be found.

For example, the US-backed president of the Philippines, Benigno Aquino, has been saying harsh things about China lately, including drawing a parallel between appeasement of Hitler and current events in the Senkaku Islands area  (Okinawa, East China Sea area) and that, in turn, has pissed off the Chinese.

The US, knowing which side our bonds are buttered on (if China completely goes cold turkey on the Dollar, we’re all screwed and a few folks in Washington grok that) some we’re off placing the typical US two-faced game. 

The way this runs is we say (from the US voice) that the Chinese are acting professionally in their air defense zone that they have set up over the disputed Islands area (with oil and gas under it, which is why all this dance is going in the first place).  And we’re gently asking China to adjust some of its claims.

No, we don’t expect China to adjust its claims.  Besides, China could still be miffed that so few people have an understanding of history, including that a Chinese Fleet sailed around the whole world in the years before Christopher Columbus, but they get no creds, even now, for being a global civilization because it didn’t set with the made-up history of Europe, but that’s another discussion – probably left for the chat about the deep (and twisted) roots of American Exceptionalism.

So our money is on China continue to ramp up military spending while they public are talking about their “New Economy””.  I’m thinking iron fist in soft glove.

And this has what to do with becoming a millionaire?  Ever look for Chinese defense industry companies to invest in?

Rolling in Data

We have a number of incredibly interesting numbers to report this morning…and I bet you’ve been up since midnight just counting down the seconds until you could get the new balance of trade figures, haven’t you?

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
announced today that total December exports of $191.3 billion
and imports of $230.0 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $38.7 billion, up from $34.6 billion in November,
revised. December exports were $3.5 billion less than
November exports of $194.8 billion. December imports were
$0.6 billion more than November imports of $229.4 billion.

In December, the goods deficit increased $4.6 billion
from November to $58.8 billion, and the services surplus
increased $0.4 billion from November to $20.1 billion.
Exports of goods decreased $4.3 billion to $132.8 billion, and
imports of goods increased $0.3 billion to $191.6 billion.
Exports of services increased $0.8 billion to $58.5 billion, and
imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $38.4 billion.

OMG is that exciting, or what?  Well, how about the new Q4 productivity report…another wet spot for sure…

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

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You ever have one of those days when you wonder “Is the Internet developing a mind of its own?”

The reason for this is a bit weird, but I think you’ll appreciate the story.  Getting to it may be a little circuitous, but that’s what coffee is for, am I right?

So there I am, sitting around the house in a few free minutes from work (or what I tell Elaine is work that goes on over in my office) and I get to looking for a new table saw.  The one I got from Sears about five years ago has been OK, but just barely.  Nothing on CraigsList.

If you ever go shopping for a table saw (and people do) the BEST table saw on the market is called a StopSaw.  The things that makes the Sawstop CNS175-TGP36 1-3/4 HP Contractor Saw with 36-Inch Professional T-Glide Fence System including Rails and Extension Table (worth every penny of $2,000 at Amazon) is simple:

StopSaws have an electronic blade sensing  unit built in that can tell the difference between cutting wood and cutting fingers.  If the unit detects a change in electrical impedance of the material, it slams the saw to a stop in a (very small) fraction of a second.

Here’s a video, if you doubt the “finger-saving” capabilities of the tool:

PFM – pure freakin magic.  Gotta get one.  So yes, for someone who types for a living (moi) or someone who needs to ensure that their home workshop “home-handy-bastard” project don’t go…er…digital…like my buddy James the famous doctor (at least in Tennessee) this is THE only saw on the market to own.

I want one because the cheap ($250 Sears) saw that I presently have ain’t cutting it (so to speak) for a number of reasons:

1.  Insufficient table “run-in” space.  The cheap saws don’t have as large a “front porch” (area in front of the blade).  The more room in front of the blade, the more precision you can get out of cuts because you can focus on the cut alignment, not trying to hold the wood up just so.

Of course, the out-feed area (behind the blade) needs to be big, too, since there’s nothing less fun that having to press down on a work piece on a running saw.  Especially if I don’t take the additional 5-minutes of screwing around to set up my out-feed rollers and all that crap.  I’m that guy.

The StopSaw has bolt-on out-feed extensions that (at my age) are more appealing than most centerfolds.

2. Shaft wobble of the blade. My present old Sears saw has a lot of blade wobble.  In other words, if you push the blade (“Saw unplugged, Fool!!!”) left or right, you’ll see you can move my old saw between about 1/16th of an inch to maybe 3/32nd’s.

A real saw ought to have basically NO left – right wobble or looseness of the shaft.

3.  Cheap, small Arbor;  The normal (middle of the saw blade) hole size on a TYPICAL home 10” table saw is 5/8th’s of an inch in diameter.  Just about all saws use this.   But where saws begin to separate the “men from the boys” is in the length of the shaft that the blade goes on.  This measurement is called the “arbor” length.

Anyone with a table saw, and designs on building furniture cutting grooves in the wood to hold shelves, knows the cut grooves are called dado cuts.  Makes for strong, good-looking furniture.

Now, try as I may, I have never been able to get enough of my dado blades on this short-arbor POS to enable me to run a 3/4 in dado in a single pass.  I can get a 1/2” dado set up, but barely.

On a real he-man saw, you get an arbor long enough to allow you to put on up to 7/8th’s of an inch of dado.  Yet another reason I am saw-shopping.  I would like to be able to run a single-pass 3/4” dado on the table saw which is way quicker than setting up the router (which will do it in a single pass) because the table saw makes a smoother cut.

4.  Non-standard table guides:  If you ever buy a table saw (new or used) made damn sure you get a saw that uses standard 3/4” guides.  This old Sears POS of mine has some fancy keyed guide that is totally useless because it doesn’t accommodate standard-track accessories.

Let’s say I wanted to whip up a cross-cutting sled so I could set up an angle jig.  (Fabulously detailed shop drawing right.)  The non-standard track issue I have run into makes me crazy.

Yeah, I know, “It’s a poor workman that blames his tools, Ure.” 

Bugger off.  That’s bullshit and anyone who believes that a small table, wobbly blade, short-arbor saw with obscure keyed tracks can turn out the same grade of cabinetry as a big StopSaw doesn’t know a rip from a crosscut.

About here’s you may be thinking “OK, interesting rant about table saws, and you didn’t mention that to replace the blade stopping cartridge is about $70bucks, but each time you replace one, that’s cheaper than a visit to the emergency room….but what about the misleading headline on this story…something about the Internet having a mind of its own?  What was THAT all about?”

Aha!  There you go again, dragging me kicking and screaming back to the point.  Doggonit…

Well, all this (except for maybe all the shopping details about how to buy a table saw (which might result in enough Amazon commission to buy a can of catfood for Zeus) is necessary background to explain the Internet getting a mind of its own remark.

You see, one of the sites that I came up with (while looking for the PERFECT table saw CHEAP was this site called www.dhgate.com.  I didn’t know anything about the site…just that it came up in a good for “cheap table saw” or something like that in the goog monster.

Odd assortment of stuff on the front page of the site….

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