George Ure

You ever walk into a casino?  There are carefully controlled aspects to it you seldom think about.  But, just as one example, there is never a clock around.  That’s because (for obvious reasons) casinos don’t want you knowing what time it is.

Similarly, in the financial markets, the little matter of “What Time is It?” is of more than passing importance.

If, for example, the stock market is headed for new highs, which some of the data would suggest (like the stronger than expected leading indicators), the people who run the markets (the commercials) would love nothing better than to load the boat ahead of time – buying when stocks are cheap.  That way, when stocks run up, they will sell at higher prices and keep the casino going.

On the other hand, if the crap is really going to hit the fan in eastern Europe,; then there would be a massive re-ordering of the world’s economy and that would run the other way for casino owners.  They would be dumping stocks, going to cash and letting the public take the bath.  They’d wait patiently for a good bottom to be put in, and then buy again.

Normally, the Long Wave is pretty clear.  We have been in a period of declining interest rates since about 1980’s, so with all parties, things are going to have to end some time.

The problem is When?

We’ve been following a particular “replay” of markets in our Trading Model over on our subscribers-only Peoplenomics side of things.  And without giving away the whole plot, we can see a scenario where one or two and maybe even three more weeks of up markets are possible. 

But as explained in yesterday’s report here, Vlad Putin has a couple of firecrackers strapped to his behind, so I’m cautiously looking at adding to a short position going forward.

The market – somewhat conflicted – has edged back into a long position in our model, but the size of the reading is not very convincing.  There’s a lack of conviction developing.

That might improve later this morning when a couple of housing numbers coming in and tomorrow we get the new home sales figures.  But the rest of the week – save Dural Orders – isn’t very exciting, unless the Michigan Sentiment Indicator turns your crank.

Sure, imports are up (and it may be bad for the balance of trade) but as we explained to subscribers recently, the increases in foreign military sales will likely offset some of that, regardless of the karmic implications.

If your life savings is on the bullish side of things, and if your idea of “long-term investing” is two weeks, then you should be in good shape.

Just remember casinos don’t have clocks.  And the reason for it is so you won’t think about how late it’s getting.  And in economic long wave theory, closing time comes along pretty soon.  It might be a couple of years, but again we ask rhetorically:  If you had money in the market in 1927 or 1928…even ‘29….how close do you think you could have plated it then and what do you think it’s any easier a decision now?

Dow futures are up 9 whole points.  Got the time, buddy?

About Those Firecrackers

Veep Joe is off whipping up the folks in Ukraine saying the US will support them.  Presumably, this will mean more than passing around cookies, but we shall see.  As stated earlier, “exercises” with 150 soldiers are not likely to scare Putin.

Since we just got done last week, putting in our payments to the FedGov, you may be wondering how much money the US government has piled into the Ukraine bet:  Well, according to his article in the Kyiv Post, “Nuland says US spent $5-billion to back democracy in Ukraine.”

Ures truly, being dense, and all thought backing democracy would involve elections.  But to be clear, the amount admitted by former Bush turned Obama Stater, Victoria Nuland, that’s the tab since 1991.

Why, that’s only $15.97 per American – and spread out since 1991, it’s all budget dust, right?

Of course, its more like $35 per worker, since retired don’t pay as much tax and kids, well, they’ll eat you out of house and home, not earning their deductions.  But it’s something to think about.

Just put it on the list of other “change” including Gitmo (still there), Stan (still there), keep your own doctor (uh….)….

When the list of promises broken gets long enough, you end up with militias talking tough, but I SUPPOSE you figured that out by now.

Grab Some More

But, in case you haven’t, keep an eye on the Bunglers of Land Management who are now trying to scoop up another piece of property – this one in North Texas.

In this latest fiasco, BLM is trying to rewrite generations of actually deeded land.

Ron Paul’s comments are worth seeing, if you haven’t.

More after this.

Maudlin America

Continuing a theme from a recent Peoplenomics report, we can’t help but be dismayed at the number of people buy in to stories that fill important air time and don’t call politicians to account by asking hard, obvious, and not “pre-filtered” questions of newsmakers.

Instead, the Mainstream media is full of useless stories that are heart still pullers but nevertheless will have little (likely NO) impact of your life, or those of your offspring going forward.

Just, for example, the latest string of stories out of Korea don’t mean jack:  You weren’t really going to take a Korean ferry anywhere in the next, oh, hundred years or so, were you?

Or, take the matter of MH370.  This one is dragging out longer than a bad TV show with no plot and the obvious need for “filler” material, since news departments have doubled down with huge bets that those trip expense reports will be justified by live action of the first body being recovered, if it ever is…

Definition: “Maudlin: self-pityingly or tearfully sentimental, often through drunkenness.”

‘Cept instead of drunkenness, how about through that feel-good pill haze?  Tell your doctor.

Making Up Law

Oh, sure, there’s LAW on the books that say illegals in America get deported.  But care to guess who is making up WHEN to enforce the law, pretending the rest of the time it is NOT THE LAW?

You go read this story and figure it out. 

See William Chambliss’ “Vice, Corruption, Bureaucracy, and Power” (circa 1971).  What works at the city level (where I covered it as a cop shop reporter and the federal grand juries) seems to have grown up and gone national.  Now seems to be untouchable.

We’re either a country or full-time, always equally applied law, or we’re corrupt.  It really is THAT simple.

Tolerance policies are selective enforcement dressed up in pretty clothes for political hacks.  “That law doesn’t apply to me…I’m special.”  Then you ain’t in America, by the law books I’ve read.  But that only works if the Courts aren’t packed…

Why isn’t the press calling bullshit on this and calling people out on this with questions like “Aren’t you selectively breaking the law here?”  “Where is the right to break law delegated to you, sir?”  FMTT.

Seen equality around anywhere? WTFU

Over Russia

The US and Russia are flying spy missions over one another’s countries.  Gee, that sure makes me feel safe, doesn’t it you?

Lights Out

Note from warhammer:

George,

What exactly might the PTB be prepping John Q. Citizen for with the release of this bit of ‘duh’ EMP news.

<http://watchdog.org/138940/solar-flare-emp/>

From burned retinas, blindness and scorched skin for those struck by the sheer awe of a nuclear HAB (high altitude burst), a “new sun” for all intents and purposes, who are drawn to stare at the fireball for too long, to the frying of every non-hardened circuit followed by months to years of trying to survive without power, gas and water, the ramifications would surely be civilization altering (and for many, life ending).

On the other hand, perhaps NASA expects a grand CME on the scale of the 1859 Carrington Event, similarly sending the sun-facing side of the planet back into the pre-electric agricultural age. Were such a CME to hit N. America, most people lack the land, free flowing water, seeds, tools and general know how to provide food for themselves and their families. Millions would certainly perish.

Whether for a HAB or a CME, the news release is definitely most curious. Ure thoughts?

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Mr. Ure is seriously losing weight here lately.  I won’t be so dumb as to put up numbers but I will say that our recent visit here at Uretopia Ranch with my friend Howard Hill was instrumental.

How so?  Well, Howard recommended a book… The Gabriel Method: The Revolutionary DIET-FREE Way to Totally Transform Your Body…which I had loaded on my Kindle in no time at all.  I mean seriously…in like 4-minutes.

What makes Jon Gabriel’s book so cool is that it doesn’t start with calories, sitting around and being a slug, cutting our sugary drinks, or any of the “normal” starting points.  What he does that’s different is he starts with the psychological reasons why some people “turn on their fat storage systems.”

Sure enough, when I started doing some of the exercises in the book, what came through were some leftover mental thought fragments (the kind that can “program” you, if you don’t consciously dredge them up and smash them with full-bright thinking and dealing with them.

I won’t ruin the book for you, but let’s just say that a lower-middle class to middle-class upbringing in my youth included a lot of food-related programming.  Sitting around the dinner table was where a lot of family sharing/caring/learning took place.  And thus, sitting around associating (food with sharing/caring/learning) in a sense programs you to seek weight via food since it must be associated with what was going on at the dinner table, right?

And while there, eating (early on) involved serving portions that were laid out by adults.  Not wanting to shore-change their kids, got more than adequate portions of food.

But we also got two other things that worked into an eventual predisposition to being (how to say this?) less than featherweights.

Aha!  Gabriel’s book is all about the psychological stuff which – in my case – involved two of the most powerful/destructive (yet not intentionally so) commands from parents.

From dad there was “Be a clean plater, or no desert…:” and from mom  “No ice-cream unless you eat all your [fill in the blank].  Well, hell, turns out the answers are always in plain sight…just Gabriel has tons of good sense in his book about finding it.  My thanks to Howard, again, for recommending it.

Oh, and no harm/no foul on the parents…they were just doing what they wanted to guard against from their childhoods in the Great Depression – being hungry.  Many marvelous “D’oh!” moments reading Gabriel’s book.

The Liquid Food Connection

“OK, so how does this get to a discussion of liquid food?” you’re wondering about here.

I got to thinking about other “food programming” from childhood and one of the messages back when was “Don’t drink too much water with your meal or you will fill up on water, not food.”

But, in fact, because young boys don’t drink a lot of liquid during the day (play was hard work) they really needed more with meals.  And that’s where I got into reviewing the kinds of food that I really like.

Things like homemade clam chowder, a bowl of chili, or that lunchtime treat: cream of mushroom soup and a fried cheese sandwich.

In the early sixties, I think it was, my mother tried dieting (briefly) and there was a place up in Seattle called GovMart which was a kind of early-day Costco, except it was for government employees only.  Since dad worked for the city, we’d go there for bulk foods now and then.

It was from there that I had my first taste of a liquid diet called Metrecal which lives on in memory in the pages of Wikipedia:

Metrecal was a brand of diet foods introduced in the early 1960s. Though its products were criticized for their taste, which newer varieties of flavor tried to improve upon later, it attained a niche in the popular culture of the time. Created and marketed initially by C. Joseph Genster of Mead Johnson & Company, it was eventually replaced in the market by competitors such as Slim Fast.^[1]

Mead Johnson had a long history of creating nutritional supplements for infants and invalids, and Metrecal was seen as a logical progression into weight loss for the general public. Genster was the group director for nutritional specialties at Mead Johnson, which launched the product in September 1959, though it was unclear who conceived the original concept.^[1] Food innovator Sylvia Schur‘s company provided consulting work on the product’s development.^[2] The name for the product was generated by an automated IBM computer system as a blend of the words “meter” and “calories”, referring to the measured caloric intake of the Metrecal diet.

Needless to say, Metrecal worked, but only so-so for mom. This was ‘61, now that I think about it.

Remember, my Danish grandmother who came over on the Lusitania (last successful westbound trip) earned her keep in Denmark as a cook for some minor nobility in Odense.  As a result of this, deserts were one of the really great kitchen outputs at our house:  A twisted deep-friend cookie (Kliner from Klejner)  [recipe here] or the accompanying citronfromage ( a Danish lemon mousse) {yeah, try it sometime].  Lemon custard tarts, Danish pastries of all sorts.  Cinnamon rolls and bear claws and….oh, my, the joy of it all.

Not that the kitchen didn’t turn out low-calorie main dishes, either.  Danish frikadeller (with a rich gravy with dill) was not exactly weight-loss food, either.  Half a dozen red potatoes and here, more gravy?  [recipe here]  Pronounced: FRACK-a-dillah.  29 million calories per serving, plus or minus.

The taste was very similar to the Swedish meatballs you can get at some Ikea stores. except that it was patties, each big as your hand, and eating two was considered a compliment to the cook.  Eating only part of one?  Dissing the cook!  And you see how this programming stuff Gabriel talks about works, right?

Still, because mom wasn’t too thrilled with the early Metrecal, she shared it with us kids.  It was chocolate, and damn good, we thought.  Kind of like cocoa, but thicker.

Now to the point:  I have through about rotating through some cases of Ensure as a prepping food, but that one didn’t really grab me because I have always thought of it as “old or sick” people food.  I’m  not that guy.

So bingo:  A couple of weeks back, along comes a note from Amy at www.preparewise.com and guess what they have? 

MegaOne Meals are the ultimate in emergency meal replacement shakes.  Made from 100% All Natural Ingredients and 28 Super Foods, these tasty shakes are high in protein, daily vitamins and minerals, and are gluten, dairy, and soy free, as well as non-GMO. Just add water for the perfect addition to your survival supply

Total Servings: 15 Hearty / 30 Light Servings 

All Natural Ingredients Made from 28 super foods including Chia, Acai, Goji & more

Incredibly Delicious Long Shelf Life: 10+ Years 

Just Add Water and Shake to Prepare Perfect addition to emergency food storage

Raw 

Vegan 

Gluten Free 

Non-GMO 

Low Fat – Trans Fat Free

Complete Amino Acid Profile

Dairy & Soy Free

High Protein (30 grams per hearty serving) 

Low Sugar 

Complete Vitamin B Complex 

Good Source of Fiber

Immune Booster

Cholesterol Free

Great for breakfast, weight loss, nutritional supplement Great for hiking, camping, disaster supply & more – 

See more at: http://www.preparewise.com/food-storage/megaone-vegan-meal-replacement-shakes.html

Amy’s accompanying note was pretty encouraging, too:

On a personal note:  This really is an amazing product, I have never been one for protein drinks, but now I am drinking this daily, as the ingredients are pretty impressive.    

So, care to guess what goes on my prepping list? 

Total replacement for general prepping?  No.  I mean, as long as the garden is putting out, and my rocket stove is firing (a review of my new one of those maybe next week or the week after) there are still a specific set of uses (hikes, don’t want to start a fire, and things like that) having liquid meals around is a darn fine idea.  A dozen per person in the car makes sense, for example.

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Remember last week, we had that reader in India who had gone bike riding…and whose bike lock key had disappeared?  Looks all over the place, but it’s like the missing key dropped out of our reality?  Well, guess what’s back…

Hi George,

The missing bicycle key turned up, carefully disguised as a dust bunny under the desk in the room NEXT DOOR to where I had emptied my pockets.

Cheers,

Jean-Philipe

long-time reader in sunny south India

This “thing” about keys is really interesting.  It’s because they have HUGE significance down at the archetype level.  You know, the one Jung was all over?

Here’s the thing:  In about one-third of the reports that we get about “things disappearing and then reappearing where they weren’t” there is some obvious archetypical “gruel” (to borrow a Dickens term) that binds the person filing the report with the object that has “gone missing.”

And, as if to prove the point, check out this report from one of Southern California’s finest…

George,

I am an avid reader and enjoy your analysis of current events. I had an interesting WOWW incident recently.

I am a full time police officer and am in charge of a mounted police unit in southern California. I went to work, with my truck, trailer and horse.

I prepared the horse and placed my ‘work keys’ in my saddle bags. I used them off and on all night at a rave concert because the key ring had a handcuff key.

At the end of the shift, I reached into my saddle bag to retrieve the keys and they were gone. I returned home the next morning after working over 15 hours on horseback.

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But what Friday isn’t good, if you’re on the five-day treadmill?  So with a semi-holiday this morning, and stock and bond markets closed, there’s little of economic data to prevent mind-rot, so we turn to the next best time:  Religion.

Not that there’s not plenty of dough to be made there.  I figure my odds of scoring a bizjet would have been significantly higher if I’d opted for theology over business administration.  Why, even if the base pay were the same, the church gig would still be a better deal just on a tax basis.

With these (seditious) thoughts swimming around, we begin by directing you to our “read of the day” which happens to be the Time Magazine article on the “Rapture of the Nerds” – a hugely entertaining Jessica Roy story about how ”A new religion has set out to store memories for centuries and deliver its believers into a world where our souls can outlive our selves “

And as if to prove, on this the weekend of ascending into heaven, and such, that God/Universe/the Dirac has a delightful sense of humor, the Time article  when I loaded it was accompanied by this delightful reminder about where people are ascending to right now:

I’m convinced, there’s at least a

…and so why not a third?  Well, ThirdLife is parked at GoDaddy now that you ask. 

But FourthLife is under construction. 

And so  it is.  One life after another…virtually, and perhaps beyond…

Tiny Economic Note

The Dry Ships Baltic Index this morning is at 930…and those are levels that generally precede a major economic decline.  Even if Ukraine/Europe hold together over the weekend, the markets could be hard down next week on a generally developing sense that this week’s rally may be all there was to the circus.

Ask me next Friday if there’s anything to it…

Robot Uprising?

With the movie Transcendence opening today, the Defense One story about “Why there will be a Robot Uprising” is worth a scan.  It’s about the recent paper by Steven Omohundro  “Autonomous technology and the greater human good.” From the abstract:

“Military and economic pressures are driving the rapid development of autonomous systems. We show that these systems are likely to behave in anti-social and harmful ways unless they are very carefully designed.”

Leaving a few jobs around, might be a nice start, yah think?

Arrested Development

The cops of Korea are looking for the captain and two crew members of the sunken ferry that went down this week.

All Fall Down

And 12 guides died along with 3 missing in an avalanche this morning on Mt. Everest.

Clintonista Readings

A whole batch of documents from the Clinton administration era are set to be released by the National Archives today. 

Just a damn shame government doesn’t have to confess and report all on a near real-time basis like we the plebes do on our tax filings, huh?  But who said anything about equality?

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One of the more confusing holidays of the year is before us this morning:  Good Friday. 

Stock and bond markets are closed in the US, but elsewhere around the world, it’s a different deal since not everyone buys in to the Christian-Judeo view of things.  Still, this weekend’s  confluence of Easter happening in mid Passover has left folks confused.

On the federal side, the ultimate arbiter is the federal office of personnel management which has their list here.  Feds get 10-scheduled and some personal time, if I recall.  Comp time, if memory serves, too.

Most of American industry – in order to squeeze out more work has dropped to about six holidays – and in many cases, not even that.  Particularly in retail.

The Miami Herald run down over here demonstrates the complexity of navigating today:  Federal, state, and county offices are open, unless you are a lawyer, in which case the courts are closed  in Miami Dade.

In a way this makes sense; , lawyers needing more forgiveness, perhaps.

But they’re not a forgiving lot themselves; the post office is open today so bills (including ones from lawyers) will be delivered in a timely fashion. Is this a great country, or what?

Around the country, some libraries are closed on Easter, others open.

As far as I know, most of the Big Box stores will be open.  Parking meters?:  Another hit and miss area.  Most will take money, though.

All of which gets me down to Ure’s Holiday Planning Decree.  I figure that everyone in the country ought to have at least one three day weekend a month.  Two would be nicer.

Part of the growing sense of “us versus them” we have comes from inequality in things like holidays; it’s more than just money.  Time off and serious relaxification is way up the list.

Personally, I think we ought to have one three day weekend every month (12 holidays per year) and half a dozen “floaters” for a total of perhaps 18.

This way, if you’re one minority, you might take a day off early in the year, while another might opt to take off Cinco de Mayo.  Everyone’s happy.  Well, except the quadrilingual teachers who would have to work through all holidays.  But welcome to public service in the melting pot.

I’m only partly joking here:   At some point, I’m looking for a Hispanic holiday to be added out of political correctness….seriously! ^{(or nearly so)}  Perhaps Cesar Chavez Day?  Just as Dr. King fought against injustice against Blacks, did not Chavez lead and work against injustice toward Hispanics?  So how about a holiday?

The Black population of America is 12.6% or 38.9 million.  The Hispanic population of America (legal or otherwise) is up around 16.4% and 50.5 million.   I’m not sure if that counts the 11-20 million illegals, or not.  Where’s the holiday?

The reason  such “common sense” as my “six floaters” isn’t here yet is simple:  If Cesar Chavez Day appeared, then we’d doubtlessly see a  parade of other population subgroups and chaos would ensue. What about a National Taxpayer Day?  Hell, that seems only fair, right?

The only reasonable answer, therefore, is six “personal floaters” to solve the mess.  I figure it one day for each grandparent (since we’re all of varying pedigree and most have four grandparents, last time I checked, morning science headlines not withstanding) and a few more days for personal use.

Being deeply culturally conflicted, I could celebrate Denmark Constitution Day (June 5th, by the way).  Not that I care so much about Cinco de Hangover.  It’s just that since tequila is sort of the order of the day there, why not have a day of aquavit/akavit and snaps? 

Then (after the upcoming rebellion) I could observe Scottish Independence Day (whatever it turns out to be).  I’ll leave it to you to figure out what liquid would be celebrated on that day, although a nice peaty single malt 25-year old ought to be a good clue.  (No, that’s not a girl!)

We get onto thin ice on this holiday booze discussion quickly; there’s been so much marketing of holiday alcohol that it has caused a major health problem and one that spills over (so to speak) in ways that can destroy lives.

Yet, when I think about it, Christmas has always been associated with a tawny port in my mind, though some people think Crown or Black Velvet; New Years with champagne, of course.

All of which gets me around to the ponder of the morning:  What will all those financial industry people be drinking this weekend?  Nothing, I would hope.  The excesses in that world have done quite enough damage to the country already and it’s driving too many people to drink.

National Stock Broker (and lawyer) day – which today is, in a sense – might be more wisely timed for October 3rd this year.  That’s the Day of Atonement and, methinks, far more fitting for those in finance and law who manage the yoke.

Which gets me to Matthew 21:12 and a note to ponder on the lure of false profits.

I’m open to other thoughts, of course, but the more holidays, the merrier.  Besides, since everyone only works at 50% of capacity anyway, we could easily add a dozen more holidays and still hit the same GDP figures. Be a hell of a lot more time off…and we’d need more toys and that would rev up the economy.

See?  Doesn’t this make sense?  As a bonus:  There’d be a lot less fluff on social media – and who’s to say that would be a bad thing?  We’d be living the actual instead of living the virtual and that’s the point.

Web Surveillance

Reader Mark out in the Bay area wonders ”What’s wrong with data capturing for corporations?  Give me more…”

George,

I don’t get all the fuss about your comment this morning…”the corporate customers of all these analytics (read: spying on your habits) ARE going to slice and dice your thinking based on your social and they will try to sell you things.”

Back before social media, computers and such there was the Nielsen ratings system. These people would send mailers to be filled out or in overnights, call random households on their land line and ask them what their TV viewing habits were that night or during a ratings period. And, people loved it. It was an honor to fill out that log and questionnaire Nielsen gave you.

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Not too often that I seek reader input on project around the ranch, but we’ve been busy getting the new sunroom and the new audio/video room ready to “button up” with sheetrock.

And so the question of the morning is:  Between Lowes and Home Despots, who’s got the lightest-weight 1/2 rock for the ceiling?

I know this is a rather esoteric kind of question, but it’s the little decisions that make a difference in home improvement projects.  Given a choice between wrestling around the heavier sheetrock or some of the new (lighter weight) material, this seems like a no-brainer.  Also, the lighter rock is supposedly less susceptible to sag when using 24-inch centers on the ceiling.

Any thoughts welcome, particularly brand.

Speaking of sheetrock…this will be my first time using Grabber GWNS125 Wet-N-Stick Water Activated Adhesive Joint Tape.  I have used the mesh type tape, which is touted as giving a much stronger joint where there might be movement (like along the ceiling-wall joint) but I’m going to see how this goes.

I decided a long time ago down here in bug country, that the only civilized thing to do is buy cases of Alex caulking and caulk everything you can find.  So that’s how we’ve rebuilt the house…probably more caulking than anywhere in East Texas around here.  But we get damn few bugs, says the Orkin man, so that’s a good thing.

Meanwhile,the adventure continues: A large enough part of Wednesday was spent wrangling 3/4” plywood onto the floor of the sun room…so today I will finish up the storm door on that and we’ll be ready to rock that room, as it were.

Then we’ll move on to the real entertainment (after one more bundle of itchyglass insulation to finish off the A/V room.  And today or maybe this weekend, Panama will do the under-house crawl to bring in the feeder line for power from the breaker panel…and then we will be ready for sheetrock.

The most interesting visual feature is the glass block which Elaine insisted on.  5-by-7 block is fairly inexpensive and when framed up with 2-by-4’s, it’s easy enough to put in during the framing and sheathing.  But it will make the sheet rocking a lot slower.  Architectural Digest material it isn’t, but fun, good use of recycled materials (20%) and a check way to turn deck space into something really useful while adding value to the homestead.

As I try to counsel our kids:  If you take all your free time and figure some way to monetize it, like putting “sweat equity” into a home, eventually you’ll come out ahead of the other 99% of humans who sit on their asses and take the dole.

It’s all about wise spending, too:  Thanks to Howard’s visit, we are now the proud owners of a pair of recyled/reclaimed Bose 901’s (series 1) which will be the mid-range speakers at the mixing console/computer.  These will be augmented with a pair of Polk Audio PSW10 10-Inch Monitor Series Powered Subwoofer (Single, Black) (one on each side) and for the tweeters, we’re still thinking about that problem…we may not need them as my hearing is starting to roll off about 14 KHz now, anyway.  And yes, virtually everyone’s high-end rolls off with age….

The cool thing is that thanks to eBay, GREAT 1970’s and 80’s used sound gear on the market, makes it possible to put together a world-class studio (playback) for under $500.  Or, you can just get a pair of Sennheiser headphones and call it good, too, too, I suppose…

For now, my biggest problem in life are mounting a storm door and installing more of that damn itchyglass insulation.

Thursday At the WoWW: Dreamland Ventures

Well, it happened again:  I had another one of those dreams with predictive content.

Rather than bore you with the details (or recount them again, what me being lazy and all…) I will just point you over to Chris McCleary’s National Dream Center site where I posted it (and also on the Peoplenomics.com site).

Also on the topic of dreams this morning, Stu over at the Age of Desolation site – where Nostradamus is the center of focus – thinks with the WoWW dreams I should be ready for what may be out there on the horizon:

George,
Read about your dream today… Holy smoke right on target… very weird about the Frenchman… Henri V perhaps?
I just finished reading Linda Moulton series: http://www.earthfiles.com/index.php?category=Headline+News

April 14, 2014 – Part 10: Hall of Mirrors with A Quicksand Floor

You need to check out the whole series, especially with your dreaming.

Stu

Yep, she writes some darn interesting material, alright.  My dreams haven’t involved any trips to UFOs and such, but if it ever does, I’ll be sure to let you know.

Oh, and if you find me naked by the side of the road in the wilderness, yammering senselessly, get me to a computer.

For now, the focus of my dreaming (off we go into the weird, here, so hang on…) seems to have been this morning’s dream which told me (in no uncertain terms) that I needed to read about “acquisitions in the Boston Globe” this morning and I would find something of interest.

Which I did, and sure enough, there’s there’s story about how Twitter is about to acquire Gnip…but here’s where it get interesting:  Apparently the way Twitter will make dough in this thing is by reselling analytical data from Gnip.

So as near as I can figure it, my “dreamland” input on this stuff is to keep an eye on all the action in data analytics when it comes to social media.

Think the NSA is interested in your personal life?  Well, corporations have an even greater interest because (unlike the alphabet boyz who don’t sell you soap) the corporate customers of all these analytics (read: spying on your habits) ARE going to slice and dice your thinking based on your social and they will try to sell you things.

That, says this morning’s out-take from dreamland, is a very big dead, indeed, and one of the reasons the web is “broken.”  NO ONE reads all the fine prints, but you go write up some social media remarks about thinking about buying a big ticket item (big screen, new car, things like that) and if you watch the web sites you surf and emails, and posts, care to guess what you’re likely to find?

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I had occasion to head up to Tyler, Texas Monday to meet up with visiting Howard Hill and lead him back to what we jokingly call Deliverance Country here in the outback.  And while I was there I loaded up the car with supplies because we don’t like to shop and it’s 15-miles just to find a gas station around here…

What struck me was how busy the town was.  There were wall-to-wall people everywhere I looked.  Parking lots of shopping areas were full, or darned near.  The Barnes and Noble was busy, Northern Tool had a steady flow of people going through.  But most telling was (to me) where people were hanging around at the Brookshire’s grocery.

They didn’t appear to have any restraints on spending and although there were some good deals on meats, on the high end they had some prime beef which was was staked $22.95 a pound.

OK, far from scientific, but it’s definitely not the kind of consumer behavior that I would have expected, especially given the strength of the online retailers in Monday’s retail sales report.

Yet there are signs that the “End is Near” financially.  One of these is the Baltic Dry shipping index which was down to 989 yesterday and this morning stands at    

These are the kinds of levels that we would expect to see when the country was running into a major recession.

However, as you can see in the chart to the right (if you have a big screen, anyway) the Census data on business inventories has continued to crep up in recent months, including the report out Monday.

Maybe people are shopping out of habit, but not actually buying much…that’s one possibility, I suppose.  And some hints may be had in other data that this may be the case…take the….

Consumer Price Data

Although the market seems (at least for a while) to be ignoring my outlook for a drop in the S&P to 1,750 levels, the strong rally Monday might be a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event looking ahead to consumer price data:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the shelter and food indexes accounted for most of the seasonally adjusted all items increase.

The food index increased 0.4 percent in March, with several major grocery store food groups increasing notably.

The energy index, in contrast, declined slightly in March as decreases in the gasoline and fuel oil indexes more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas.

The index for all items less food and energy also rose 0.2 percent in March.

Besides the 0.3 percent increase in the shelter index, the indexes for medical care, for apparel, for used cars and trucks, and for airline fares also increased.

The indexes for household furnishings and operations and for recreation both declined in March. The all items index increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months; this compares to a 1.1 percent increase for the 12 months ending February.

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The market is going to rally this morning – and it might even make it back up to 1,840 on the S&P.  But we play the long game around here, and so we begin this morning with a very somber outlook for markets, except as our Peoplenomics subscribers have known for weeks, it won’t be somber around here because anyone with half a brain can make as much (or more) money when markets are going down, compared to when they are going up.  It’s just that that the American public has been hoodwinked into thinking that taking the short side is somehow bad.  Truth is:  Your money doesn’t give a shit.  It goes to the people who make the “right” bet, not the ever-higher economy pap that’s sold by politicians and hucksters; if it’s not too early to draw a distinction between ‘em.

We look at some comments from a “couple of Robins” to get things rolling:  Robin Handler of the Options Signal Service offers this (in small part) to his readers:

This is the absolute worst set-up I have ever seen in my life!  DJI at 4000? Yes! Very possible in the next two weeks.

I am not an astrologer. I am not a numerologist. I just look for anomalies that foreshadow big and unusual events in the stock market.  To quote Bob Dylan, “You don’t need to be a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing.” And if there are dark clouds on the horizon, it is time to “seek shelter from the storm”.

Things have already started happening that I predicted, and could take the DJI down a few thousand points IF the Stock Exchange is not closed.

The issue, he notes is the Cardinal Cross where Pluto goes retrograde and Mars kicks it up a notch around the 21st, so our April 23 “duck date” may be pretty good.  Especially with the battle of words over Ukraine that (in Energizer bunny fashion) just keeps going, and going, and…

The other Robin who always has a a fine perspective on things is Robin Landry who manages client money from his office up in Shawnee, Oklahoma, which he decided long ago was better than the big city rat race.

Landry’s view is less influenced by the headlines, the starts, or any of the rest of it:  He just looks pragmatically at his charts and when it comes to Elliott waves, I put Landry in the same league with Bob Prechter, but without so many calls about the “big one” is here.

Landry’s approach is very measured:  As of last week, he was expecting a bit of resistance in the 1805-1810 levels on the S&P, but at that time his indicators were suggesting that these could fall quickly which leaves us at the 1,740-1,750 levels as the next target zone.  “We’ll just take it one step at a time, George,” is one of his favorite remarks when I pencil out scenarios several wave movements ahead.  He’s been a great teacher.

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