George Ure

It’s a familiar topic around here, but worth noting this morning that a new poll which is available from CNN-Money says 59% of persons polled believe the American Dream is unachievable.

What’s worse is that as you read down into the detail level, you’ll find that the number of folks who don’t think their children will be “better off” than their parents is nearly 2/3rd’s – 63%.

All of which circles back to a very interesting problem:  What is the core reason that we get up and go to work in the morning – or do anything else, for that matter?

Huge socioeconomic success seems to follow articulation of a great dream. 

From the depths of the Great Depression, America organized around a dream of “saving Europe” and “beating the Hun” and that was followed with “beating the Japanese.”

After World War II, we got into the dream about containing communism and that helped the US go (more or less) united into Korea, where we’ve been ever since.

Then there was the dream to “put a man on the moon within 10 years” which was done, although there are plenty of scoffers who argue that it was all a conspiracy and show and that there are simply too many photographic hints that it was at least partial staged.

Nevertheless, staged or otherwise, we had a dream – and did something about it.

Other dreams (such as Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream”) have been realized as well.

But there’s that old “What have you done for me lately?” side of things.

A fine question to be asked if you know anyone on a school board or who’s a teacher, is to ask them “What is the American Dream” that is being told and sold to the young people of America today?

The mood of the country may hinge on such things, since there’s an obvious pile of potential dreams to pick from.

With the huge increase in the levels of income disparity. finding a better means of income distribution might be a candidate.

Or, given the paucity of jobs, we might want to work on developing a dream to deal with the arrival of robotics which will decimate the workforce in coming years.

As I sit hear thinking about it this morning, there aren’t a lot of worthwhile dreams that come to mind.  But perhaps you’d be so kind as to share whatever you consider a worthy dream for America.

Something better than “What this country needs is a good five-cent cigar” would be nice, and something  that doesn’t involve adding more divisions between us as people.

It’s be nice if it was something the whole planet could buy into, as well.  And no, going to Mars doesn’t cut it for me personally, but maybe there has been enough groundwork laid around the idea of Martians, that it is an idea whose time has come.

Or not.

We’re All Public Figures…or Are We?

There is something of a gulf in this country which I’m starting to notice:  The country is dividing among those who believe in the right to privacy and those who see that with the arrival of network computers and the lack of public training on how they strip away most traditional (pre computer) privacy notions, we are becoming an ever more transparent society.

I recently whined about the NSA’s plans to use Facebook information as feed stock for its massive facial recognition program. 

And responding to this, in pops an email from reader Mark out in the Bay Area, who says (in so many words) what’s the big deal?

George,

I don’t really have a problem with government security agencies having a picture of my face, fingerprints, SS#, body type, shoe size…whatever. What are they going to do with it? I have nothing to hide…Actually, me and millions of others have chosen to have our  faces plastered on as many sites as possible.

My entire present day life is there for anyone to look at on LinkedIn, Facebook, Google+, Twitter, my public web site, business cards etc., etc. I want people to recognize me. It is part of my personal business model. 

However, for some people, it’s never OK until it’s OK. That is, until they have a theft, assault, fraud,  or Heaven Forbid a kidnapping or worse. Then, we all want our local authorities to mimic the Person Of Interest scenario and hunt those bastards down by any means possible.

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What’s going on with the economy is so simple even an idiot can understand it. 

And being one of those idiots, I can even explain it to you.

The long term interest rates have been sliding down since 1982.

As they have come down, stocks that pay even modest dividends have gone up.  With me so far?

The interest rates are sliding again.  And as they do, the big word Deflation has everyone scared spitless in the power chairs of economics.

Just this weekend, Italy’s economics minister was hand-wringing over how bad deflation would be.

Anyone outside of Italy has probably figured out that the deflation ship has sailed and Spain’s King abdicated this morning, leaving his 45-year old son to deal with financial problems of Spain (not to mention breakaway Catalonia where a separatist party is coming on strong).  Get while the getting is good, is what it reads like at this end.

So this morning we turn our attention to Istanbul, Turkey, where Chicago Fed president Charles Evans is hinting the US Fed will not be in a terrible hurry to raise interest rates.  In fact, while some of the worrywarts in the market have wondered if there might be an interest rate increase before 2014 is out, Evans is coming out and saying that we may not get an interest rate increase until 2016.

So this gets us to looking at my friend Robin Landry’s view of the markets.  As an expert in Elliott Wave theory, Landry disagrees with those who have been saying “the Big One” is coming to get us any minute.

in fact, he’s looking at the S&P 1982 level and we might see a blow off which could take us up to the 2,200 level.

Over on the Peoplenomics side, our Trading Model seems to agree and with only a week or two of bearishness, it has remained consistently on the long side.

Barring a “flash war” or the planet being wiped out by an asteroid this week,  the market futures look to open about even, to somewhat up today.

But if the unemployment number charade continues to work out, and as long as the shareholders and bondholders can sit back in relative safety – no doubt comforted by the wink-wink- nudge-nudge out of Istanbul from Evans this morning – there doesn’t seem to be anything worrisome about playing the long side of things for a while longer.

We should – at some point – run into x2=4py.  That’s the parabolic blow-off top yet to come. 

At some point, little people like you and me, won’t have much of anywhere to park our money.  As that happens, a lot of people will be driven into stocks, since banks are subject to bail-ins and such.  And then, as a result, with everyone “into the pool” the big investors will slide out at the next largest financial drowning in history will take place.

This week in Peoplenomics, we’ll look at the market breaks of the late 1900’s and into the 1920’s and lay some Kentucky windage on what might be out there.

The Baltic Dry index is down to 934 for a second day…maybe this parabolic isn’t baked in the cake just yet, but until a turn in rates is firmly in hand maybe the markets will hold.

More after this…

M-TH: Sleepy Hollow for Data

The headless economy won’t really be riding until late this week, though, so if you want to grab your favorite squeeze and “call in healthy” that’d be fine by us.  Hell, I’ll even sign your permission slip, if you want.  (Not that your boss would accept it, but I’ll sign damn near anything.)

The Institute of Supply Managers will release some data this morning.

Then there will be a construction spending report at mid morning.  But since China’s markets are going Lazarus (e.g. rising from the dead) we won’t get too upside no matter what in that report.

Tomorrow we get factory orders, but the one to watch will be auto sales which so far have been the only market holding the US out of being in the deflation death spiral.  Who would have thought “Cash for Clunkers” would be saving us five years later here after the market’s near-brush with collapse in 2009?

Just like it takes five years for a major change in petroleum prices to work and snake its way through the economy, I’ve got $10 bucks says there’s someone in the back room of the Fed running multi-agent simulations that got one hell of a bonus for getting that one right.  It’s been showing in the data for a couple of years, yet seems no one (to speak of) in the financial press has been screaming about what a put on the recovery has been.

Now, we have to wonder if there isn’t some kind of “bulldozer plan for housing”  as an economic stimulus for the next near death economic experience?

Back to point, ADP job numbers and a balance of trade report Wednesday,; so I may wake up for those.  Challenger job cut report Thursday is good, too.

But the real number of the week will be the employment report on Friday.  If the auto sales are weak and depending on how the balance of trade looks, we may get a few hints, but not enough to commit serious money to.

More than anything, we’ll just be twiddling our thumbs and looking at the TNX (10 year Treasuries) which are really the decider on whether the pigs ear economy can be turned into a silk purse for another month, or whether the whole McGillah will end up on the cutting room floor.

I’m betting on the silk purse for now, since Fed-pip Evans has let the cat out of the bag this morning.  The Fed may talk tough, but they are not (contrary to what some media might think) complete idiots.  They don’t want to crash the economy any more than any sane person would.

While the Fedsters are not complete idiots, the partial designation would be a much longer conversation, but we don’t have time for it. 

You want to get out of bed and go get some papers to trade for precious metals.  Because when the Big Turn comes, it will all be about navigating your life savings through the confiscatory gauntlet ahead.  And it won’t matter whether your dough is in home equity, paper assets like stocks, or in banks.

In the short term?  All sunshine and rainbows.  Oh, wait!  Aren’t rainbows parabolic, too?

Fighting Terror or “Let’s Make a Deal?”

Well, here we go again.  The US has had a long-standing policy of not swapping terrorists for any American held hostage by foreigners.  But that was blown out of the water this weekend with the Obamanistas pulled a 1 for 5 trade to bail out an American G.I. who was held by the Taliban.

We got one, they got five.  And while that’s specifically against the rules passed by Congress, we should see this week how the Administration plays its cards to get out of any real consequences for (another runway action of) the imperial president.

So, let me see:  We still have illegals being dumped in Arizona, VA is broke but off the front page, and now we’re giving in to terrorists in spite of law contrarywise.  Jeez, what a mess!

Still, no reason for any of the administration behavior to change.  Besides, if I mention it, I’m sure I’d be labeled a you-know-what…  If there’s rational dissent, marginalize and roll on.

Power Plant Rules

Also in Washington comes word that the Obama administration plans to cap CO₂ emissions from coal fired energy plants.

Wrapped up all pretty-like in climate change wrappings, this will completely sidestep congressoids who are becoming ever-more useless by the day.

In the meantime, look for the courts to get involved as legal action is sure to follow.  Except, of course, we all know which branch gets to pick the federal, appeals, and Supremes, for their respective federal courts, do we not?

Hil’s New Book

Presidential wannabe Hillary is due out next week.

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Quite a few emails popped in when we discussed the Big Taboo: talking about the “Illusion of Ownership” that’s so widely held today.

The list is impressive: 

• You don’t own your home.  Even if you think you have paid it off, the government still rents it to you via property taxes each year.
• You don’t own your car:  First, you never get “title” to it, only a “certificate of title” that a title exists somewhere.  If you can find an actual “title”, let me know.  But it gets worse:  Unless you paid “rent” on public highways (long ago paid for!) you can’t drive it on the road.
• You also don’t own any of your personal skills:  Sure, you may be able to wire up a house, but to do so without being granted government permission you don’t own that skill as far as anyone else is concerned.  Oh, and fees and a bond apply.  Same for plumbers, and that list goes on.  Right up through doctors and lawyers, all have to pass a test and be licensed (authorized and never free) to practice your craft.
• You don’t even own the “right to drive” unless you have rented that right from the local department of motor vehicles licensing depot.
• You don’t own stocks anymore, just an electronic chit that’s held at the DTC/Cede.
• And your money in the bank?  Well, Europe is eyeing a “bail-in” on that front since deflation is pernicious and the laws are on the books for a similar haircut for the plebes, but not shareholders or bondholders, here if things get bad enough.

All of which ought to thoroughly piss you off when you think about it.  The land of the Free is really the land of the Dispossessed.

Oh, and as reader Gregory points out in a fine commentary on “how the world works” when it comes to this “ownership stuff” you also don’t really have a spouse, unless…..unless….

George,

Your comments on “ownership” or the lack thereof struck a resounding chord with me, since this scam extends far beyond mere property.  It also includes human beings and it begins at marriage when couples are required to get state-issued licenses to wed, with even common-law unions increasingly difficult to pull off anymore. 

The marriage license [actually called permits in some states which reveals their true nature] amounts to a legal, binding contract between the couple and the state which is why you later have to get a legal decree to divorce and dissolve the existing contract.  But: it gets more diabolical once that couple have children.  The same thing happens all over again: every child born is required to have a state-issued birth certificate which -in essence- grants full authority of the child to the state… they are legally considered chattel and property of the state… which is why your children are forced to attend school and why the state can and will seize your children if you are deemed unfit as a parent… including inadequate education.  [But wait!  That’s another topic altogether!]  

Incidentally, this system of legal entanglement is also why the fed-gov waffles so much on abortion and birth-control issues.  It has nothing to do with morality, but rather a complex web of contract law.  But: should they ever choose to do so, the fed-gov could indeed order a woman to terminate a pregnancy or restrict the number of children a couple may create [China’s been doing this for decades].

Since we are all property of the state it is therefore illegal for us to take our own lives… which explains why suicide is also a punishable offense [and one which makes NO SENSE whatsoever in the final analysis].

The good thing about all of this is that there is a growing movement among Ministers who no longer require a state-issued marriage certificate, instead relying upon God-Almighty to do the paperwork – thus nullifying said state’s authority over the holy union.  And, if that couple’s children are born at home by a midwife that further weakens state control over a family. 

Of course: the fed-gov has another catch-22 waiting in the wings for those savvy enough to avoid such contractual traps: our personal Social Security accounts.  

Although never intended to be used as a form of ID [yeah: RIGHT!] this account was the fed-gov’s way of tracking it’s populace [at least until electronic snooping became possible]. 

Wanna’ eat?  Get a job. 

Wanna’ job?  Get a number. 

Wanna’ eat without a job?  EASY! 

Fill out these forms and hurl yourself deeper into an unforgiving and never-forgetting system. 

Now, it’s damned-near impossible to vanish from that system without elaborate -and totally illegal- actions on the part of the would-be invisible man/woman. 

And: it all begins at birth -or rather, when the unwitting couple agrees and says, “I do.”

Gregory

Ah yes, another fine example of how “the Big Scram”  of ever-encroaching government is slithering around shows up.

A genuine cynic would laugh at the LBGT community which has been “celebrating” the extension of marriage licensing to them.  What they may not have felt, in all the joyous celebrations of “recognition” is that deep down it’s just another cog in the gearing to further “own” all humans.

but take it from me, the Reality is a very dangerous thing to be talking about, or even thinking about.  It dredges up a certain feeling of frustration and futility.

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The latest  “insults to injury” come with reports that the Obamanistas in charge of immigration have turned thousands of illegal immigrants loose at bus stations in Arizona and elsewhere.  400 were flown to Arizona – yet Mexico would have been a close flight!  Unbelievable!

What you get a sense of, when you read reports like this one, is that the Obamanistas have been caught with their hand in the cookie jar and we will now see partisan butt covering out the wazoo.

Right on cue, as if to prove my point about partisanship, we read now how the republicorps are moving to increase investigation funding into the O-crowd’s defacto amnesty, but the vote was (look surprised) along party lines.

Chicago schools have been caught in an apparent lie, seems.  This as a question about immigration in a test database about a hypothetical immigration position written by “Ari Payo” is – they insist – not a rip oif Phoenix area sheriff Joe Aripaio, who’s indignant that the schools’ didn’t “have the guts to use my real name” is the quote.

But for the ChiSchools to say it was wholly fictional?  We don’t have time for Mr. Ure’s lesson in factorial math, but 26 letters in an alphabet and some spare calculator batteries and at some point, you’ll sniff the odor of bullshit on this one, just as pungently as I do.

Dropping known criminals back into American society?  There ought to be heads roll over this one, but (as in Gun Walker) look for a political cover-up to follow.

It shouldn’t be an investigation.  Try impeachment.  Because it sure looks like flagrant disregard of the laws on the books. And the Jeh Johnson’s deeper understanding leads to one of our favorite socioeconomic mantras.

You can’t fix stupid.  But I suppose that it will mask the Chinese takeover when they buy ‘Merica out from under us using our own bonds to do it.

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As you know, I did an experiment last weekend with “automatic writing” and  wrote up the interesting experimental results Monday, or so, of this week.

What’s interesting is that several readers warned me against such an endeavor, noting that to mess about which such processes is to risk getting in contact with entities that may not have my best interests at heart and some suggested that “evil sticks” to people who get around such stuff.  Danger in tinkering with magick is their context.

On the other hand, no harm in it (although yes, the information in the note from Chris at www.thechronicleproject.org was a bit odd), I figured since magick is well-documented as an acceptable thing to do.  In fact Aaron was to keep his “truth stones” (Urim and Thummin) close to his chest at all times.

Wiki it and you’ll find these consulting stones use goes back a long time…

In the Hebrew Bible, the Urim and Thummim (Hebrew: ?????? ????????, Standard ha?Urim v?haTummim Tiberian h??Ûrîm w?hatTummîm) are associated with the hoshen (High Priest’s breastplate), divination in general, and cleromancy in particular. Most scholars suspect that the phrase refers to specific objects involved in the divination

When you go through the Bible, you’ll find “the stones” are consulted here and there, and as one researcher notes, it’s not the practice of magick, per se, that is bad.  It’s the kind of magick that gets people into trouble.  And that circles around to intent.

Worth reading: Divination of God: The Obscure Ancient Tool of Prophecy Revealed  (Urim and Thummin).

Which related to this morning, how?

Well, as you know, I finally got my “missing RPM” back on our old airplane this week.  But that turned out to be only my “first blush” with things mechanical.

I left the house about 9:30 Thursday morning to go pick up sheetrock and get a new safety inspection and license for our old farm truck.  Pulled in,; went to drag out the registration and  insurance card and….no card!

That in and of itself was strange since I am a fanatic about all paperwork in its place.  So back up to the house, scan the one from Elaine’s car (shows both vehicles) and then back to the inspection joint.

Along comes the inspector.  “Sorry, you’ll have to get four new tires.  See these front ones?  Too much toe-in and you can almost see cord on them.  And the back ones are down to the wear lines…”

The next 45-minutes was spent wandering around town getting quotes (best is $600) for four new truck tires, mount and balance, and a front-end alignment.

Still, got the sheetrock, made it back to the house, and since the inspection sticker doesn’t run out until the end of June, I picked up the registration (they don’t look at the inspection sticker, they just want money), and that was that.

A typical busy day around here followed.  Elaine had cooked a phenomenal pot roast, so I took a nap about 4 PM and woke up about 5 asking “Is it a little stuffy in here?”

Well, sure as heck, the air conditioner had crapped out.

After some initial checks (we’ve had some power bumps out here) and cycling through all the breakers and making sure there was power going down to the unit, I called the local air conditioning emporium to get them out here (later this morning).

About here, though, I got to wondering  “Say, usually I lead a kind of charmed life” and usually there isn’t this much….uh…..”

“You mean mechanical stuff going wrong?” Elaine suggested.

“yeah….”

And that’s where this morning’s big ponder is: is this all some kind of “spiritual payback” for my automatic writing experiment, or is it really just how “additional protection” works out?

This last point is a bit odd, so let me explain.

By going hunting for the “missing RPM” in the place, we found a seriously defective carburetor which could, under the right kinds of conditions, have caused a major inflight fire.  Having a fire one mile up in the sky is not my idea of a good time.  So maybe my meticulous maintenance antennae were just going off.

On the truck tires?  Maybe I needed to change them because to fail to do so might expose Elaine and me to unnecessary risk while driving the truck into town to pick up what are usually heavy loads.  Like the 12-sheets of sheetrock I picked up yesterday.

And on the air conditioner?  I might be something as simple as a low-pressure cutout switch since the system hasn’t had a lick of maintenance needed (other than filters) for six years now.  Maybe it’s time.  But that’s where the 10-year warranty picks up, I suppose.

But now – here’s the really weird part:  When I was in town earlier this week (Tuesday) I had stopped by the local Wally-World where they had 20-inch box fans on sale for $17.

I just had a sense that I would need one….in the shop.  So I picked one up.

Elaine went down to the car, brought up the box fan and we slept a peaceful night, sans air conditioning.  It can be done. Conveniently

But as the week rolls to an end, I find myself wondering which of the three leading candidates is going on in my life with this:

a) Payback for delving into automatic writing, in which case is it:

1) protection for me, getting potentially bad things out of the way, or

2) screwing with me because I wasn’t supposed to try automatic writing

b) a MORE COMMON phenomena:  Mercury going retrograde in a week, and since I tend to front-run Mercury, and so it’s just how “my stars lined up”

c) Or…the highest probability to the rational mind…is it sometimes shit happens in clusters?  As Sagan noted in “Demon Haunted World” maybe we are still those superstitious bipeds, although he was much more polite about it.  Toss in old and overweight and I’m the trifecta winner.

My spiritual advisor will no doubt want to do some “clearing” work of the energetic sort (no problem there!).  And I hope our consulting semi-retired astrology expert (Michelle) can look into this.

In the meantime,  it makes for an interesting review of how “As above, so below” works. 

One thing’s for sure, three mechanical items in a week is way outside of what I’m used to:  One – once or twice a year – is more what I’m accustomed to.  This clustering?  Not my cuppa tea.

Oh, and if you do try automatic writing?  Might help to have $3-thousand dollars worth of cushion in your checkbook.

Oh, the Car Discussion

In yesterday’s column, where I generously offered my consulting services to the Bilderbergers ($250K plus a Porsche Panamera) I hope you appreciate that the chance of this every happening is about as close to zero as imaginable.

Still, reader Mark has a point as he writes this “bamboo under the fingernails” bit on my car choices……

George, 

A forward thinker like you, should be dreaming about cars of the future…not of an ancient past. The top rated luxury car in just about every publication is the antithesis of vehicles of the past 100 years. Tesla is what all car manufacturers should aspire to create. They have invented and continue to improve on what has become the holy grail of the new car consumer.

Here in California, they are the dominant luxury car in terms of sales…and their leader, Elon Musk,  is to cars what Steve Jobs was to the entire electronics industry…an innovator and winner in everything he touches.

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Sadly, there has been a decline in World of Woo-Woo events in recent weeks, so we’re fresh out of those kind of reports for you.

But the mail keeps coming in covering points on this and that, much of which is interesting and worth sharing.

For example, without going into the larger context, I mentioned the speech by President Eisenhower on the “military industrial complex” in Wednesday’s Peoplenomics.com report. And that prompted reader Atom to send in his little-know fact:

military industrial complex. the actual written speech, per his daughter, was “the-military industrial-congressional complex”, but because he was enjoying good relations (not sure who was on top) with congress he omitted the congressional reference. The military-industrial complex can not exist without a funding source…congress.

Thanks for listening.

And speaking of which (the military) I can’t keep but mentioning several other military-related items while I’m at it.

I often take the Obama administration to task for failing to follow through on the campaign promise to close down the penal facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.  In fairness, however, the administration is not entirely to blame.

The record shows it was the US House (yep, the republicorp dominated House) that blocked administration plans to close down the detention facility there.  It’d be hard (not to mention an ugly crapstorm) for the president to unilaterally move against specific legislation.

The problem this brings into focus is that both political parties love to play dirty and switch sides on issues.  In this case, one can see how the republicorps are holding up the agenda.

All of which is not to exonerate the Administration, however.  They get other things wrong, as I see it.

For example, this Bill Gertz piece in the Washington Examiner note how the Obamanistas keep “tuning” on the rules that permit (under specified conditions) US military involvement in ther enforcement governance on American soil.

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Elaine thinks I was being lazy this weekend,  Lounging in my overstuffed leather recliner, staring at the big screen computer display once in a while, I can see where that might be the impression.

But the reality is I’ve been doing a lot of deep-thinking on the application of neural networks to markets.  Multilayered feed-forwards, and other such tools, as gaming the market takes a lot of time.

Today, the Dow figures to tack on 50-points in the early going today  – ostensibly for any number of “headline reasons” including:

Election in Ukraine is behind us.  Still, this could blow up again this week as dozens of pro-Russian fighters died in Donetsk.

The right (small /EU/ groups made gains in European Union voting, but it could have been worse.  Global world government lite seems to be the fallback chatter.

And oh, another mass/outrage killing will spur more gun control discussion.

Fine, on the surface.  But there’s something much more serious going on.

Math.

There’s a dirt simple equation for rising markets and it works out thisaway:

Say you have one share of a stock and it is earning $1.

If the prevailing investment environment is giving people returns of 10%, then you would own $10-dollar stock.  The markets are competitive like this.

But, suppose that you still have $1 worth of earnings and the prevailing yield of competing investment choices drops to 5%.  What happens to the stock price?  It  tends to rise to $20.  (Ceteris paribus, all other things being equal.)

Now suppose that the same $1 worth of earnings exists and the prevailing interest rate drops to just 2%.  What is the stock price likely to be (again, cet.par.)?  $50!!!

So the Big Story that no one is explaining worth a crap behind the headlines is that the reason stocks could hit new highs is that rates are heading toward deeper, lower, lows!

If this was only a US phenomena, it wouldn’t spell global economic disaster down the road (when rates rise).,  But look out!  When rates do begin to rise, then things will turn exactly the other direction and what has been the “virtuous cycle” will turn into a vicious cycle.

And that gets us to the most important financial lynchpin story of the morning:  “Europe’s deflation threat may be growing” says the Boston Globe.

Provided companies can hang on to at least some earnings, record Dow highs are just ahead, as are highs in the S&P.  The NASDAQ has some catch up to do, but we could be in one of those “Summer of ‘29” events shortly.

I don’t say this lightly.  The greatest challenge the Federal Reserve will have to face over the next three years will be how to manage the eventual “turn” in rates.  Put simply, rates will have to reverse as some point, or the world collapses in a heap.

But if they get it even slightly wrong, as happened when rates were being raised in 1929, things can collapse – globally. 

Here’s a snip from a San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Economic Letter “Monetary Policy and the Great Crash of 1929: A Bursting Bubble or Collapsing Fundamentals?”  (From 1999):

“Price-dividend ratios continued to fall until July 1929, but then prices began to take off. In August, the Fed raised the discount rate by another percentage point to 6%. The stock market peaked in the first week of September. It is worth noting that at its peak the price-dividend ratio was 32.8, which is well below values reached in the 1960s or 1990s. Share prices declined in a more or less orderly fashion until the end of October, but then the market crashed. From its peak, the price-dividend ratio fell roughly 30%, to a level roughly similar to that prevailing at the beginning of 1928, when the Fed began to tighten.

In the immediate aftermath of the crash, the New York Fed took prompt and decisive action to ease credit conditions. When investors attempted to liquidate their equity holdings, many lenders also called their loans to securities brokers. With the encouragement of officials at the New York Fed, many of these brokers’ loans were taken over by New York banks, who were allowed to borrow freely at the discount window for this purpose. The New York Fed also bought government securities on its own account in order to inject reserves into the banking system. In this way, they were able to contain an incipient liquidity crisis and prevent the crash from spreading to money markets.

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