Tensions between the US and Russia haven’t been this high since the Cold War and, with reports of crash scene tampering floating about from eastern Ukraine, the question of “Who shot it down” is echoing around the international community.
Against this background, reader TJ wonders:
Hey George, do you think the plane could be a Ferdinand moment like the one that started WW1?
That’s a pretty interesting question. The Wikipedia entry on point offers this:
On Sunday, 28 June 1914, at approximately 10:45 am, Franz Ferdinand and his wife were killed in Sarajevo, the capital of the Austro-Hungarian province of Bosnia and Herzegovina, by Gavrilo Princip, 19 at the time, a member of Young Bosnia and one of a group of assassins organized by the Black Hand.[4] The event led to a chain of events that eventually triggered World War I.
Notice, however, that World War I did not start quite instantly. We have a selection of candidate dates to calculate from:
On 28 July, the Austro-Hungarians fired the first shots in preparation for the invasion of Serbia
August 1, Germany declares war on Russia
August 3, German declares war on France
August 4, German declares war on Belgium (a neutral country).
August 6, Austria-Hungary declares ward on Russia.
Austria invaded and fought the Serbian army at the Battle of Cer and Battle of Kolubara beginning on 12 August.
January 19, 1915 Zeppelins bombed Yarmouth and England enters Total War.
From these events, if this does, indeed, turn into something that’s an analog to the events that swirled in World War I from the outbreak of hostilities over summer, to the entry of England into the Total War in January 1915, we can do the following simple date math
It’s interesting to me to notice that the lag between the Austrian invasion date (Aug 12) and the entry of England due to Zeppelin bombings was 160-days, which approaches our Fine Structure Constant day.
With this in mind, we should have a very clear picture of historical import of the July 17th event this year by December 10.
The good news (I mean, such as it is) is that the economic long wave is not yet to its complete, utter bottom yet. In fact, with the rise in employment figures and with global markets near peaks and not that far globally from the rollicking good times of 2007, collapse from here is unlikely.
It’s axiomatic that crashes happen from market bottoms, not tops.
Thus, a much better candidate event would be events to unfold later this year in the Middle East in general, and specifically, in the area where ISIS/ISIL has set up shop. The fall of additional territory that those forces seems likely, especially given reports this morning of more than 700 killed in Syria as ISIS continues to press from the east.
Of course, the death toll in the Gaza fighting is now around the 500 level, but there’s a much higher media profile to this part of the region. The rioting in France, for example, tends to keep people in the West focused on the Gaza Strip and not what’s going on up north in Syria.
Meantime, the Middle East is still where global war should come from since so many people are invested psychologically in the religions of the region. Headlines like this one (real or fake, makes no difference) prove the psychological warfare levels involved…and there are times it’s easy to confuse Iron Dome with divine intervention, perhaps.
Meandering back to point, for now, odds seem (to me) to remain high that the MH17 disaster will (in time, but maybe not in our lifetimes) be found to be high-level “signaling” between Washington and Moscow. As our Winnipeg news analyst admits…
Dear Mr.