Ebola Outbreak: How Long Until Dead?

With the bombing of Iraq back in place, and with continued fighting in Gaza, the key question to be asking ourselves this Monday is “How Much Longer to Humans Have?”

I really like the answer “ad infinitum” but the evidence isn’t looking good, in that regard.

]To be sure, there are reports (like this one) that continue to hold to the idea that airborne transmissibility is unlikely because (in  our sample story) “pigs cough and sneeze more than people do…”  Excuse me?

The good news, such as it is, is that the spread of Ebola will be a terrible human tragedy working out over perhaps a five year window.

We know, for example, that a glance at the replication and infection range for Spanish Flu (1918 to 1920) meant a roughly two year high mortality period.

Since the incubation period for flu in general is about 2-day, and maybe 4-days in some cases, we can look at how the timeline for a much longer incubation period would last.

Peak death from Spanish flu was spread over a 24-month period, but with the transmission rates what they are of Ebola (and comparing the course of illness, 7-10 days for flu versus 20-days for Ebola) we worked out this weekend (with help from my consigliere) that a 2x to 4X disease time of maximum death (reference Spanish flu) would be a reasonable guess. 

We settled on a factor of 3, which means that since Spanish flu was an 18-24 month Big Deal, the currently evolving pandemic won’t really be of known scale until 54-months (4.5 years) to 72-months (6-years).

This one is going to be around a long time.  Hopefully you and I will be among the survivors so we can commiserate.  I have no idea where I’m going to get the creativity for 6-years of headlines about this stuff.;..

Death at a NASCAR Race

“Why do people go to stock car races?” I asked one of the deans of Seattle newscasting back in the day, as he was rolling up cans of Rainer beer in foil as we were about to head out to a local speedway.

Part of it is the sound, the presence of death, the danger of going fast…maybe the injuries…much like bull-fighting…” he told me.  This was back in 1966…

Fast forward to this weekend in upstate New York, driver Tony Stewart reportedly struck and killed driver Kevin Ward, Jr. who has gotten out on the track and was trying to confront Stewart.

Human’s don’t change much as to why they go to auto racing events, bull fights, or confrontation sports like football and boxing…..at least in the 65 years I’ve been watching for change…

More after this…



To Market, To Market

Nothing much on the economic horizon until the middle of the week, so the Dow looks to tack on another 70-80 points at the open today.

The reason news won’t come until we get to retail sales on the 13th and then on to producer prices Friday morning.

Looking at the global markets, The biggest gainer in Europe this morning in Germany which is up 1.75% and in Asia overnight, the Japanese market screamed up 2.38% overnight – that’s 350+ points and that’s a lotta sushi…

Silver is back over $20-bucks and gold could be lining up for another run, too…just remember what I told you about the periodic annual high for the market is usually set around August 26th, plus or minus a week, or so.  But if we roll 500 points up this week, Ures truly will be the least surprised guy in town.

Want to Skip Work?

There’s a new report about telecommuting in the Washington Post this morning about how the “Patent Office filters out worst telework abuses in report to its watchdog….”

All of which gets us back to the perpetual problem of management:  What gets measured gets done…and if telework (or any OTHER kind of work for that matter) isn’t measured and benchmarked periodically, what do you expect will happen?

You Know It’s Summer When…

Rioting with racial overtones shows up…. in the wake of the shooting of a black teenager in the St. Louis area.

Musical Chairs of Baghdad

President of Iraq wants a new prime minster.  And a new parliament as long as they’re at it.