Horsemen and Kindling Effects

(Gig Harbor, WA)  Say, not to be sounding like one of those doom-porn types, but some very serious thoughts this morning on how recent history and current events are shaping up need to be covered.

This won’t be a particularly long report.  Just important.

So we dispense with some of our usual flowery language and weak puns to get right to the heart of things after headlines and our Trading Model with charts…  Leading off with Fed Spotting (rate announcement due today) and Consumer Prices…

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PBT and the News Filters

You mean PTB as in powers that be, right?”

No, actually, I meant PBT as in pass-band tuning.

Please note the concept of “passbands” – lifted from Wikipedia over here:  You’re looking at the intermediate frequency amplifier passband of a receiver:

Does this, by chance, have anything remotely connected to the stock market, investing, long wave economics, and making a killing in the market?  Otherwise I’m out of here…”

Well, yes, it has EVERYTHING to do with all the above, and move.

The first drawing shows the analogy (in radio receiver design) to how 95% (or more) of people read the news.  It just flows in, unrestricted, and swamps the senses.  Once “in” it charges emotions, causes people to join persuasion blocks and do all kinds of stupid things – like joining the Ready for Hillary drive to raise money for political purposes while (straight faced) telling people in Iowa that she’s still thinking about running. Yeah, right, you bet-cha.

The installation of passband filters, as an adjunct to our normal senses, allows us to exact deeper meaning because within the passband, the signal to noise ratio improves.  There’s effectively less background noise.

With the right set of “filters” installed, we can get a very good zoom-in on the actual meaning of news, at least relative to our “filters.”

OK, half interestingAn example or two, maybe?”

Sure, no problem!

Let’s dial up my favorite passband filter (money, specifically money impacting on that cheaper Scrooge Mr. Ure.).  And to demonstrate, how about we pick one of the largest headlines making news-splash this morning:

House expected to vote on training Syrian rebels to fight ISIS” says the NY Times headline.

Now we apply the “money filter” and stick that in the word-search tool of the browser.  The word “money” brings us directly to:

“It includes no additional money for the training effort, but does allow the administration to accept contributions from foreign powers, in cash or in kind.”

Of course, we can broaden the filter a bit by applying a synonym list:  A political use of money might be the word funding:

“But Republican leaders, eager to get their candidates back on the campaign trail, rebuffed their conservative colleagues. They argued that Senate Democratic leaders would have rolled the authorization for the Syrian rebels into the funding and Export-Import Bank bill anyway, then sent the package back to the House for yet another vote.”

Doesn’t the Ex-Im Bank Charter have to be renewed in the next month, or three?

Aha, you’re beginning to grasp it!  Filters show us “the way…”

So we can pretty much skip the attention-grabber, and following the “money” we find that the Ex-Im Bank reauthorization is contentious even among companies up here in the Northwest, where people have been calling the Import-Export Bank “Boeing’s Bank” for years.

The Seattle Times piece over here and the Wall St. Journal notes here, tell us how the hands of money are moving in the background off to the side of the ISIS story.

(I’d use the “wrap a turd in apple pie” analogy, but that would be unnecessarily crude, even for me.) Still, it make the Ex-Im reauth. inevitable, you see?

How much of ISIS-fighting is really a proxy for Ex-Im Bank reauthorization?  I personally think it’s a smallish (but non-zero) consideration.  Boeing needs “friendly” banking.

I won’t go into who all the Ex-Im Bank customers are, but it should be sufficient to just mention that you can turn on the “money” filter any time you want to follow around the edges of a story where you will sometimes find interesting linkages.  Linkages to the real agendas in play.

Determining the importance of those linkages depends on another concept in receiver design, but you can sharpen up the passband a lot by just adding additional words to filter (effectively zoom-in) on the concepts that motivate people.  Sex, money, and drugs are frequently used filters around here.

There are plenty of analogs to news analysis to be found in a good book on receiver design…depends how important coming up with specifically useful output from your news-junkie habit really is.  Most people are too lazy to “tune in” using filters.

In my case, it’s the ONLY reason to read news or pay attention to what’s going on: personal benefit or gain.

Depending on how arcane you wish to go, the concepts of passbands apply to news, economics, but mainly in radio (RF) and optical design contexts.  But we’ve never felt especially awe-struck by things like domain constraints on useful thinking tools… hence, electronic analogies to economics has proven a useful construct over the years.

Unanswered:  What is the coupling factor between weekly beheadings and bank reauthorization, if any? And do the beheadings constitute, in some 3-degrees separated way, lobbying for the banking measure?

More after this…

    

PPI, Durables, and Market Futures

The release of the Industrial Product and Utilization data Monday was a kind of lead-in to today’s Fed meeting (rate decision tomorrow) that left markets schizophrenic.

The Dow managed to put on a “show” gain, while the tech sector was busy having its butt-kicked out back.

This morning’s dfata cluster involves Produce Prices:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in July and 0.4 percent in June.

On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended in August.

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Coping: Of Moles and Morlocks

The question du jour, though early, is a fascinating one:  Why are there persistent rumors, stories, and even pictures of massive boring machines floating around the Internet – all clustered around the notion of “secret bases?”

An email from our friend warhammer is on point:  What is it about EMP, nuclear threats, and such that drives government to turn mole and dig deeply?

George,
The data center highlighted in this article, Boyers, PA, is a short drive from my residence.
<http://www.computerworld.com/article/2606378/new-data-center-protects-against-solar-storms-and-nuclear-emps.html>

The article describes what is essentially a Faraday cage, which has been used for decades to shield electronic emissions from classified sources from getting ‘out’ to where prying ears can pick them up.  This one prevent EMP from getting ‘in.’
One key fact is left out of the article, which is that much of Boyers is already underground.

<http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/news/2014/01/23/inside-iron-mountains-underground.html?page=all>

Having 220′ of earth and rock above and copper shielding surrounding the data center area, nothing short of a direct asteroid hit, H-bomb attack or global flood will immobilize Boyers.

Astute observers might see a pattern emerging – Raven Rock (Site ‘R’) and other alternate U.S. Government facilities such as Cheyenne Mountain and Denver Int’l, both in CO, Boyers/Iron Mountain Corp., PA, Fort Greeley, AK, Fort Huachuca, AZ, China Lake, Naval Air Station, CA, Dulce Base, NM, Los Alamos, NM and “many, many more.  Why all the digging?  Is the U.S. Government merely preparing for the unthinkable or do they actually know something we don’t?

Don’t forget the Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway, the vegetation version of Noah’s Ark.

My humble opinion?  Valuable resources are not typically expended on the ‘unthinkable.’  Some plausible information must lay at the root of the subterranean real estate craze. 

Or is that “real estate crazy” that rational government leaders find it necessary to spend tremendous amounts of time and money preparing to survive.some type of destruction from above (whether natural, man made, or ‘other’).

A familiar saying states that if you want to find out the truth regarding any covert op, “follow the money.”  While classified programs can cover their expenses through congressional exemption, plotting the web of underground facilities across the nation (and the globe) can provide the arm chair researcher with many key pieces to a very mysterious puzzle.

Cheers,

Dulce base, in particular is a vexing one:  What’s out there?

A couple of years back, we heard about unidentified air traffic that moved at incredible speeds and (after leaving the Denver ATC track, was on course for Dulce’s vicinity before blipping off radar) and have wondered if all-night shift workers in New Mexico might have some interesting accounts.  Or, our friends with the castle up near “ground-zero” for cattle mutilations, west of Trinidad, Colorado.

One of these days, if you’re looking to do a real public service, a visit to the MUFON or other UFO reporting database might yield some interesting results if you plot the locations against population densities of sighting areas.

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Markets Extend Weekend

(Gig Harbor, WA)  Hit the snooze button  Oh, sure, you think the markets are opening this morning and they may be – on paper – but with the Dow flopping between positive and flat-line, it’ll be like rigor tradeus until we get some data rolling in.  Not that we don’t have some suspicions…

My friend Roger Reynolds offered his email readers this gem:

Friday the dow and SNP both gave weekly broadening top sell signals. Since they had given opne before and the markets did not go down some folks might ignore the signals. IMO that is a mistake. WHY??? because they both gave similar signals at the 2007 top. Also, some other reasons—-Friday there were more new 52 week lows on the nyse than new highs. Raymond James brokerage says that to omit the dow and big cap stocks of nasdaq then the average stock in the russell 2000 is already down 23 percent from it’s high. In other words, the army is in retreat while the generals are fight the averages war.

There are two Fed-ly things this morning:  Empire State Manufacturing is just out:

“The September 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded at a robust pace for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index rose thirteen points to 27.5, a multiyear high. The new orders index moved up three points to 16.9, and the shipments index advanced two points to 27.1.

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Coping with the WoWW: A Great “Falling”

What happens next in markets may be a huge reversal to the downside beginning this week, or maybe next week after options come off late this week.  And I suspect this why?

There has been a “Great Falling.” 

A what?  Allow me to elucidate:

The Universe talks to us…often in ways that are too subtle for our busy minds to hear, but that’s mostly because we have such busy schedules and we’re texting so much drivel that we miss the signs when they are thrown in our faces.

From experience, though, sigils and signs are a lot more common than people realize.

No, I’m not talking about when you get a flash of intuition that if you turn down the next line of parked cars at the mall, someone will back out right in front of you, leaving the perfect parking spot close to the door.  That’s more gut feeling and being in tune with your higher self.  Of just being flat-ass lazy.

Technically, a sigil is a “thing” that has been inscribed with symbols, in a particular order and a particular way that imbues the thing with magical power.  Amulet with writing, kind of thing.

Sometimes, though, Universe writes the SIGIL out over the whole cloth of your existence.

Happened to us Saturday afternoon between 4:45 and 9:00 PM. 

.Here’s how the symbols read:

1.  About 4:45, my buddy, the retired Major fellow, called to report that he and his bride would NOT be going over to Lake Chelan as planned.  They’ll be staying home because while putting the roof racks on their VW Taureg (which tows a small trailer), the Maj. didn’t place the ladder right.

It slipped and he went Humpty-Dumpty, complete with the “Crack!” noise as his ankle hit the ground.

It was too puffy to get a good X-Ray of it by the time he got to the docs, so he will be get another foot-selfie Tuesday but he’s down for the count on crutches with a baseball-sized foot.

Falling event #1 complete.

2.  By the time that call was done, we were outside Elaine’s son Brandon’s place where we walked in and were treated to fresh home-smoked sockeye salmon – totally delish.  The kids outdid themselves.

But my ears perked up at the mention (mid-bite of salmon and a vodka water) that that very morning, Brandon had been working in the yard and the ladder he was on (for no apparent reason) broke.

That sent him to the ground…no injuries, but he will feel it.

Fall Event #2 complete.

3.  Later on in the evening, around 8 PM, or so, we drop in with the kids to a party (kids of the ‘hood when Elaine was raising Brandon” and Aerospace Rick (who drivers a mint magnum-like Ferrari, told how his daughter, and attorney, had just be sidelined with a sprained ankle.

She had been wearing high-heels and one of them just keeled over. Broke her ankle so down for a week or longer.

Falling Event #3 complete.

4.  We get home and I mention this has been an odd day for things “falling” and as the conversation drifted along, I noted a funny thing in my mouth.

A gold cap on a tooth has fallen out.

Off to the emergency dental place Sunday morning to have it repaired.

Falling Event #4.

Near as I can tell, this is a seriously improbable series of things falling around us.

As we head back to Texas Thursday morning, we will have rain falling, but that’s not as “in your face” as the Saturday news arriving at our ears:  Great Falling.

We’ll see if markets listen, though this has all the hallmarks of being an entirely forgettable day in the pre-open.

It’s all Interconnected…

So there we were:  Daughter Denise, Elaine, and me having a dandy brunch of everything good on Earth out at Ivar’s Salmon House on Sunday on Seattle’s Lake Union in Seattle  when somehow we got on the topic of how everything in the world is interconnected.

(After a neat conversation about when Bitcoin will get hacked with a recent UW grad in molecular biology who is what?  Waiting tables at Ivar’s which should tell you reams about the condition of the US economy for non-banksters, but that’s a long rap for a distant Monday…)

Not that we would argue the point, about interconnectedness, but Denise told us a marvelous story that somehow didn’t make it down to media in East Texas and it’s quite a story, if you haven’t head it:.

The long and short of it is that last fall, there were some sacred Indian relics that were to be moved from ta local museum back to one of the Puget sound islands.

To get there, the museum folks put the relics in a vehicle and caught a  ferryboat to take the relics to their final (and more proper) resting place.

As the ferry neared its destination, something never-before seen happened:  A massive pod of more 35 killer whales appeared and  seemed to dutifully escort the ferry on its trip …the kind of thing that for humans would be almost like marching in procession with a casket.

Hasn’t happen before, or since, explained Denise.  evidence enough to her – and us when sitting by the lake watching the boats go by and recalling our own connections with the sea from our sailing days – that there is a connection that is both timeless and non-local.

A connection we ignore (every day) at our own peril.….

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2022162797_apxpugetsoundorcas.html

I assume you know killer whale brains are bigger than human brains?

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A Course in Relative Values

(Gig Harbor, WA)  One of the biggest “prepping problems” is what threat to prep for.  While there are no hard and fast rules, there is something to be learned from a study of relative values.  With this in mind, a long ramble this morning into the mindset that works.

We also look at the spread of Ebola and what that might do…a major killing time, but slow arriving and thus, plenty of time to prep for what could be “national days in” that could be coming worldwide if the worst fears of epidemiologists materialize.

All of which requires plenty of coffee and is best taken on the deck with the sun of late summer to ward of the chills of what’s to come.  Markets are often driven by internals, but every so often exogenous events come along that “blow over” the status quo.  The period from this fall to next summer may be a period when externalities may again remind us that while Quants can rule the milliseconds, Ma Nature rules the days…

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Hallelujah! Car Sales Save the Economy (again)

Once again, America has experienced its bacon being pulled out of the fire by what?  Car sales!

But things aren’t doing badly for the credit card companies, either, since in the latest Federal Reserve data out this week, credit card (revolving) debt was up at an annual rate of 7.4 percent while student loans and such were up by more than 10%.

Understand that this is a vexing problem for economists to deal with:  While it can be argued that the big bump in consumer spending could be a good thing, it also might imply that people are no more responsible in their spending habits than they were in the years leading up to the Housing Bust a few years back.,

Yes, it might mean there are sales…but is it a healthy economy?  I rather think not. 

Before going further, though, let’s cut into the retail sales press release just out…

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $444.4 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the
previous month, and 5.0 percent (±0.9%) above August 2013.

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Coping: Apple Strudel, Coffee, and Bruce the Critic…

(Gig Harbor, WA)     Ah, touched a nerve, did I?

Yesterday’s discussion about whether people need a $400 watch that requires a $600 phone got me a stinger—zinger of an emailed critique from my friend Bruce down in Ecuador.  A fairer critic would be hard to find.

George, 

You don’t need a smartphone, because you have no friends, and really not much of a life. How many numbers you got stored in that tracphone? Do you have only one phone for the two of you? That’s as archaic as a couple sharing an email address. 

Question is, how many cpu’s/electrical switches do you have in all that crap you hauled across the country? The name of the game is chip reduction. The apple watch is not a watch. It is the interface to the computer called an iPhone that goes in your pocket or elsewhere. The new iPhone has more computing power and storage and connectivity than the first 3 computers you owned, combined. Maybe 10 times more. Like I said, there are people in the world that could replace all that crap you transported with an iPad, keyboard, smartphone and a Bluetooth headset. 

Why do I need a watch?  Truth is, I don’t.

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One More Thing: World May Not End

A couple of people asked me why I didn’t mention the big EMP from the sun that was due to wipe out the power grid today.

Simple:  Word out from the science people who watch such stuff this morning said (in part)

The X1.6 flare from 10 September was associated with an asymmetric full halo coronal mass ejection (CME). It was first seen by SOHO/LASCO at 18:00UT and had an average plane-of-the-sky speed of about 800 km/s. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on 12 September around 21:00UT (+/-12 hours).

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Goodbye 17,000, Farewell 2,000: Where’s my Bottom?

Saturday’s Peoplenomics report will be pretty darn interesting, since the market this week is looking to end on a sour note. Futures, when I checked prior to pushing pixels, were down 61 on the Dow. No, make that down 70 now. Here’s the thing: My buddy Roger Reynolds sent out an email to his list yesterday saying that if we get a close under (his level) this week, it would be a sign that the top could be in for this move and we could get a serious move to the downside.

Coping: Battle of the French Toasts

(Gig Harbor, WA)  OK, enough of the serious stuff.  We need a break…

When one of the biggest news stories of the week is that Apple has reinvented the watch so that it can put further in debt – and this is hailed as progress – it’s time we put our feet down and get back to food-binging because that’s one of the few pastimes that actually makes sense, anymore.

Our “binge” will happen Sunday morning.  And the weapon of choice will be French Toast.

In the rush to do this & that, I haven’t gotten around to describing chef-daughter Allison’s incredible French toast.  It’s French toast stuffed with a cream cheese/apple sauce filling – and it’s to die for.

The way it’s built seems simple enough:  You mix up the batter (heavy cream and a couple of eggs will do).  Then you gently cook one side of two pieces of bread.

As these come up to a light brown, you spread the “stuffing mix” on the cooked sides. Slap ‘em together and cook the soggy outsides.

The stuffing is whatever suits your taste portions of cream cheese (softened to room temp) mixed with applesauce and into this you put a dash of nutmeg – and maybe cinnamon.  By varying the spices, you can cover a good portion of the spectrum from dessert all the way over to near pastry.

Whew…toss in a few slices of ultra-trimmed bacon and some link sausage, some high octane coffee and OMG…what a fine combination of octane-rush and blood-sugar explosion with enough protein to moderate the crash later on.

If you have other fruits, I can see them working, too:  Peaches or cherries come to mind.  I’m not so sure about cantaloupe or watermelon…something with less moisture would be a better fruit choice, but I’m not the culinary school grad.

(I did mention that we’re foodies, right?  It’s just that Elaine doesn’t look the part so in an act of selfless chivalry,  I do my best to make up for both of us…)

I’ve made a note to ask Allison if she pre-spread the mix on dry bread and then dipped and cooked one side only…seems to me that would work, too…just depends how crispy you want the finished product. 

So that’s one “contestant” in my Battle of the French Toasts (BoFT) due Sunday morning.

The other is my old standby: Bailey’s French toast.

This is a single-layer French toast which is made (as always) with a base of heavy (whipping) cream and a couple of eggs and whatever you have in the way of bread.

What’s different is that you use a hair less heavy cream than usual and make up for the thicker dip by adding a shot or two of Baileys Irish cream to it.  Or, in my case, the cheaper imitation stuff; St. Brendan’s and Carolan’s work with minor taste differences. Cooked slowly, (and getting the middle above 170) may drive out the alcohol.

Next, as you dredge the bread in the batter, you dust the top side with some nutmeg and put this face-down in the frying pan.  Then a second dusting of nutmeg to the side that is face-up – and you then cook and gorge to your heart’s content.  It’s a binge-day and calories don’t matter.

One of these days, I’ve got a variant of this kind of French Toast:  In stead of making it with Baileys (a half shot of Frangelico is nice, too, just cook slowly and well so it tastes pastry and isn’t about the booze. 

Another one “on the drawing board” is to put in a shot or two of Hiram’s Chocolate Mint liquor instead of the Baileys (haven’t shopped for it for years).  This would be made possibly without the nutmeg, as an afer Thanksgiving of Christmas toast where instead of maple syrup, you’d use Hershey’s chocolate sauce and wash down with a hot buttered rum or high octane coffee and some chocolate-coated espresso beans…

Other liquors come to mind: A cherry cordial or (years ago, showing my age) San Martin used to make an apricot wine (Aprivette) that would interesting with either fresh apricot jam or perhaps a cherry jam on it…again cook slowly and well, it’s not about the booze.

The third French toast nominee is to get a big loaf of French bread the day ahead of time.  Since we’re going to be seeing friends up in Poulsbo Saturday, we will probably drop by Sluys Bakery where I’ve been fueling up the Scandinavian side of my DNA since I was 12 and just learning to row a boat around nearby Liberty Bay across the bay from downtown.  (That was more than 50-years ago…dammit.)  A picture snagged off this website will put you in the mood.

So in this third method, what you do is take 2-inch thick pieces of French bread, soaking them good the evening ahead of time and refrigerated overnight.

I’m not sure what this does, exactly, but the results  when baked the next morning in a 350 (or slightly quicker) oven, is something like a near bread pudding middle with a French toast exterior and OMG, the whole thing is good.  Nutmeg dust before cooking, or overnight, depending on your heritage, though I think chili peppers would ruin it. Dash of white pepper for zing? Hmmm…

Serving in all cases is with real butter and with real dark amber Canadian Maple syrup; Canada’s contribution to global obesity issues.  If you even think about putting that high fructose crap on this kind of art, I’ll be mighty disappointed in you.  Corn should be real, saved for breads, breading, and the last 90-days of cattle’s lives but certainly not for cooking, as I see it.

We don’t eat much sugar – and maybe that’s a reason why we’re in such good health and look 10-15 younger than our ages.  Vices like sugar, tobacco, and corn syrup can’t really be good for you.  No more than one tablespoon of syrup per piece of French toast.  The idea is to taste the mixed flavors, not mask the flavor in sugary sensations. OK, three tablesppons…

If you want to read an interesting take on healthy eating and how to stay young/fit, I can’t think of a better starting point than the article “The Oiling of America .”

In this view of things, the more artificial crap you put in your body, the more those fats tend to turn into plaque rather than being returned to use as useful energy – and the more chance you rack up to lose the stent lottery held by your cardiologist.

When I find my doctor is asking about ‘drilling rights” in my body, usually six-weeks of watching the fatty food intake, plugging in the treadmill for a half hour (or more) per day, drops things back to fit and healthy.  Sometimes I walk on the treadmill while it’s running.  But the meter doesn’t seem to care if I fudge, or not.

When I do this, the doc shrugs, pronounces me alive and skips the speech on how I might use a cholesterol drug.  To my thinking, they’re the hydrogenated fats of blood chemistry.

There’s a couple of things that come from reading Paleo Diet kinds of books; the main one is about eating the natural mix for where your genetics came from. 

For me?  Scotland means oatmeal. Denmark means cream and eggs…so oatmeal cookies must be health food!  Thank you, T-6 haplotype.

I could write about food and beverage endlessly.  The one Dark Side of cookery that I haven’t yet mastered is portion control.  I figure when I croak, it will be a self-solving problem.  I promise to drop my portions to zero calories immediately after dying.

In the meantime, the battle of French Toasts seems a fine way to spend a lazy Sunday morning – the winner will be the one that tastes most like a perfect pastry without so much sugary stuff on it. Judging could last an hour, or so.

Elaine (a long-time personal trainer who’d be a gym rat even now if we were staying put long enough) points out, one of my character flaws is that I live to eat instead of following her counsel which is eat to live.

Since she rarely reads this morning’s column, I’ll let you know how she does with that eat to live stuff when confronted with a properly plated trifecta of pastry-like winners.

Them Lying Mother-Frackers/ Review Processes

Thanks and a tip of the hat to my buddy Howard Hill who spotted this dandy report which you need to read if you live anywhere near oil or gas potential areas that the oil industry is licking its chops to frack open:

Proximity to Natural Gas Wells and Reported Health Status: Results of a Household Survey in Washington County, Pennsylvania

One thing I’d draw your attention to on the cover of this little 28-page report on the National Institutes of Health website:  Dates.

Received: 17 October 2013
Accepted: 20 August 2014
Advance Publication: 10 September 2014

Now here’s my pet theory:  When a report comes out with some highly damning information about how the runaway oil and gas biz is playing…

a small study (492 interviews) of self-reported health issues
significantly higher skin problems and lung problems for the group less than 1 KM from a fracked well and those >2 KM from same)

…it strikes me as highly suspect that it takes so long to get the word out..  We’re talking a 28-page summary, remember?  I’m probably too prolific (this would be a 2-3 day project max for a writer/writer).  Not the kind of thing that should take more than  a month to wend its way through the review process.

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Prepping for Retirement

(Gig Harbor, WA)  This morning we peel back the covers on one of our “secret missions” up here in the Northwest:  We’re trying to sort out whether to move back to this region to be closer to the kids, or just stay put in Texas and send the kids holiday airplane tickets. 

The Obama administration is driving some of this as they sit in waiting until after the elections with their potential November surprise on illegal immigration.  Transparent?  Forthright?  Yeah, right.  Just campaign BS sold to the sheep.  Save the heavy stuff till it’s too late to change your mind.  More practically? We eye the 357-mile distant border with Mexico with increasing suspicion because yes, we do Remember the Alamo and we do read terrorism alerts.

Given the complexity of modern life and the investment we have made in prepping it would be difficult if not impossible to duplicate what we have in the Texas Outback.  But now we’re putting numbers to it as we set about to size up terrorist rings, heart strings and purse strings in this morning’s discussion.  How to scale bug-in versus bug-out.

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The MH-17 Report / Ukraine Mess

30+ pages of report was issued by the Dutch this morning and no conclusions as to what actually brought down MH-17.

What the report did say was that the crash was the result of multiple highs-peed objects hitting the aircraft.

This is an incredibly frustrating story to try and piece together.  When I went to download the entire report, turns out it is in PDF form and they set the security settings to prevent curious reporters (like Ures truly) from plugging the document into Google Translate (or other newsroom tools) and that stinks.  Reporters are by nature “trust buy verify” kinds of people.

While the MSM “narrative” like this NY Times article go a long ways towards reporting what was released, the Dutch are keeping theirs report inaccessible fort widespread review by locking it down to where copying is not permitted, and that prevents full (and nearly instant) machine translations.

The root problem is the Dutch report doesn’t add much clarity to the situation. It was already an article of faith that it was not an aircraft failure.

Meantime, the Russians are bound to be upset with a new round of punitive sanctions on them from the EU and the military types on both sides will likely continue working weekends trying to gear up for any eventualities.

Economic Outlook, NoDoz Needed…

The NFIB report on small business outlooks is out:

August’s Optimism Index rose 0.4 points to 96.1 making it the second highest reading since October, 2007. The four “hard” measures (job creation plans, job openings, capital spending plans and inventory investment plans) were collectively unchanged, and the other 6 components added to the Index a bit to produce a modest gain. 

Toss is the continuing terrorism concerns, and the Ukraine tensions and the markets are in a sideways to down mode:  Dow futures are down about 8 and gold & silver show only lackluster interest.

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