OK, sure, sure, we’ll get to the “usual” stuff in a minute. Retail sales and such…
But before we do that, Chris McCleary has a couple of columns up this week over at the National Dream Center site that demand reading.
Why? Because (as we’ve long expected) when sliced consistently with Grady’s Nostracodeus software. Chris is getting extremely high correlations between future stock market prices and what people DREAM.
Part 1 is here: For those with eyes to see: Secret mirror to Wall St.
Part 2 is here: The Secret Mirror to Wall St., Part II
The basic drift of it is that dreams seem to be able to predict the future of the stock market up to as much as the 70% kind of range.
And this would make sense because as I’ve told you for years, there is likely a correlation simply because human systems all seem to have a major “As above, so below…” aspect to them.
But beyond this, about 70-80 percent of all that passes for “news” in today’s world is pre-planned. So much so that I can tell you that I’ll be looking for New Zealand’s retail sales figures on Sunday afternoon at 3:45 PM because it will already be Monday where? Just one example, but enterprising reporters (Attkisson aside) are rare as hell. In reality we live in a sanitized press release scheduled world.
Just like the Fed capacity and utilization report will be out Monday morning at 8:15 local time.
It has always stood to reason that people will dream about things in advance…want my rap on structural hysteresis? We know (at least in my very cursory look at dream time delays) that if a person experiences something shocking (like getting fired), the dream resulting from that experience may crop up to anywhere from that night to 10-days later.
So by the time a dream is aggregated and considered by Chris & Grady’s Dreambot version of Nosty software and other tools Chris has developed, you can see how there might be a lag.
But the lag may happen to place the dream results just ahead of physical manifestation.
Let’s take that worker laid off on April 1. He has a dream with work layoff content on April 7th. Chris then might pick out the trend on April 8the or 9th.
But it’s on April 15th when the company issues the press release that triggers the stock decline…
This is just the kindergarten version. And tomorrow on Peoplenomics we’ll discuss a lengthy email that I’ll be sending Chris (and Grady) today about how to move forward. There are ways to improve not only the integrity of the data, but also navigate certain other issues.
For this morning, however, the main thing to watch is what? Dreams. And for reasons I won’t go into yet, you really, really, REALLY want to be posting your dreams on a regular basis on the National Dream Center‘s DreamBase.
When Chris mentions “The meek shall inherit the earth” who do you think the “meek” are? Another hint: We’ve had plenty of “future can be bought” but now we’re seeing a path where future can be “earned” by the sincere. And, in the process, ways to maintain predictive integrity going forward which is way cool and the whole point of things.
But more on that tomorrow. We now return you to the regular scheduled news, such as this morning’s retail sales report…
Spending Our Way to Oblivion
Imagine you just won the Powerball for $500-million. What would be the first thing you bought?
Many people will name this bauble or that trinket. But other than a large ring for Elaine, I can’t think of much else, right off the bat. Everything we buy is really a two-edged sword.
I might want a bigger & faster airplane than our old Beechcraft. Which sounds really cool, but the problem that comes along with it is it would increase my chances of killing myself. Complex airplanes (yes I can fly them) are where many more things can go wrong. Like the landing gear might not come down…that kind of thing.
So the mindset “auspicious” is critical. Must be present to win, and so would a 200 mile per hour sports car extend or shorten your life? Do you really have serious experience driving over 100 miles an hour?
The Retail Sales figures that follow are always interesting. Not as interesting as winning the Powerball might be, but with proper mindset, you can infer the national mood a bit from reviewing the data:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal
variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $444.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the
previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9%) above October 2013.
Total sales for the August through October 2014 period were up 4.5 percent
(±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.3% (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from September 2014, and 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 9.1
percent (±2.1%) from October 2013 and auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 8.3 percent (±3.0%) from last year.
One of these days I’m either going to have to report we have reached consumer super-saturation where every man woman and child has two cars and an SUV, or the next great boom in ‘Merica will be the garage building business.
Under the surface, this is NOT a good report. The national mood, at least as far as I’ve been able to pick up going into town and just listening to people’s “between the lines” implications seems to be something like “Yeah, sure the economy sucks, but you only go around once, so I’m going to buy me a new…(fill in the blank).”
Futures are flat, gold under $1,150 on the futures.
Critical Fed Number
The M1 money supply figure for the most recent three month period has gone negative on an annualized basis.
And the money supply growth of M2, basis the last three months and then annualized was up a total of 3.4%. This means the dollar is still getting stronger, not weaker, as the wealth continues to accrue to the rich. It also means the rates will be firming and when that happens, car loans will move up and the stage will be set for another decline.
But this kind of action could be a year or longer working out.
My Consigliore’s Ebola Tracking
When a tax attorney/CPA looks at Ebola, I pay attention:
Official Numbers as of November 9, 2014
Note: the CDC estimates that actual cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are two to three times higher than officially reported numbers
Some important things to note wrt the Ebola epidemic:
The Good News:
1) It appears that in the early stages of infection it is NOT very contagious, if contagious at all. This is demonstrated by the complete lack of secondary infections from early stage infectee’s in the Western World. This is very good news since it indicates that isolation once symptoms appear can prevent the spread of the disease.
2) At this point in time it does NOT appear to have leaped out of the current Hot Zone into any other major urban area, particularly Lagos, or into Nigeria itself. As the number of cases and deaths mount in the current Hot Zone throughout November, December and Janauary this risk of a LEAP OUT of the current Hot Zone. If this can be prevented then everyone can breath a huge sigh of relief
3) Treatment options for those who have the disease appear to be increasing and may reduce the current 70%+- death rate quite dramatically. The full impact of these treatment options on the death rate though will NOT be known for another 60 to 90 days … and THEN those treatment options have to be rolled out in the countries affected even as the medical facilities are stressed with just providing basic care. The biggest impact of these new treatment options will probably be in treating cases that are attempts by the virus to Leap Out into new geographic areas.
The Bad News:
4) The infection continues to spread in the Hot Zone fairly close to the projections laid out back in July. Until the local populous has not fully accepted the behavior changes that they need to do, particularly in how they deal with those dying and the burial rites of those who have died, the rate of transmission will probably not dramatically decline. The good news though is that people in the Hot Zone area are now scared enough that they may well be changing their behavior when it comes to those issues. IF that is happening then look for the disease to start to slow it’s rate of spread over the next 60 days, possibly dramatically.
5) Based upon the CDC analysis that the reported figures at best only represent 1/2 to 1/3 of the actual cases then then total number of cases is somewhere between 30,000 to 45,000. If Samaritan’s Purse’s projection that they are only capturing 1/4 to 1/5 of the cases then the total number of cases is 60,000 to 75,000. Since much of the rural areas are NOT giving numbers at all to the central authorities I would tend to gravitate more towards the higher range of total cases than the lower range of cases at this point in time, though Burn Out of the disease may be approaching in some to the heavily hit rural areas (ie: fewer healthy people remain to be infected)
On balance the Ebola news is actually overall GOOD at this point in time since we now know that it is difficult to spread during the early phases of the infection …. AND medical science is now working hard on effective treatment options, one or several of which will probably work for greatly lowing the death rate.
Everybody should cross their fingers that Ebola does NOT make the leap into a major 3rd world city with it’s mega slums. That would make containment of the disease in the near future (next 4 to 6 months) very very difficult.
And crossed fingers we have…but with a nagging sense that the disease will still break out and hit China and Southeast Asia very hard. Just a sense of things (perhaps due to the proximity of people there…)
Cause and Defect
Go read what Vlad Putin says about the Russian trade embargo. Figures it will blow back onto places like the EU which makes perfect sense. Punish Russia, wreck Europe. Why, it’s a two-fer.
It’s a hell of a note when the president of Russia makes as much sense (or more) than our own. However….
Before You Obama-Bash
(Which we do a good bit, but always with reason…) This should be named “Lay Off Obama Bashing Day” because all the right wingers who complained about Solyndra going banko maybe missed that the government program that funded that boondoggle is actually going to MAKE taxpayers a $5-billion return.
Lower taxes to result? LOL, fat chance, bucko. But credit where due and to make money is a good thing even if not directly.
(time to quite writing for the week when bucko and banko show up in one story…)