Housing Data Foreplay

Oh, that time of the month, already, huh?

Check back at about 8:20 AM Central and we should be able to present the latest Case-Shiller, S&P, Dow-Jones, Corelogic (and whoever else wanders by) monthly Housing Price Index report.

As our super high-tech graphic shows:  What I would expect going into this is a sideways report.

In other words, just as the Fed’s withdrawal of “easy money” has led to a collapse of prices in oil since there’s quantitative pleasing to blow up the balloons of the oil bubble, so too, there are some incredible bargains in housing out there.  Oil is back down nibbling on $53-bucks, so someone is likely about to get into trouble in the oil patch, if they aren’t already.

The reality is (likely) that since the Fed is trying to act like there’s a recovery, the amount of free money being dispensed to keep banks owning repo’ed homes is likely starting to tighten.

Elaine and I have been looking at homes, too…something closer to the kids would be nice.  And prices have sure come down.  Places like Dallas, once off the charts, have come down to where you can get a livable (nice enough) home for under $150K.

Prices in the Pacific Northwest and down the West Coast haven’t come down much (yet) but as the bank and speculator money comes off the table, those homes are going to come on the market.  And with rates still rock bottom low, it’s getting hard not to buy a home, if you can afford it.

But we shall see how quickly the dynamics change. Do check back.  For now, a SWAG (simple wild-assed guess) would be small pick up in volume, level to declining price, but that’s with no meds and plenty-coffee.

Financial Trouble Today?

There is a BIG Crack in the World financial model developing.

Japan was down more than 1.5% overnight and China down 1%.  In Ure-Up, the frogs, krauts, and kneelers are all down 1% or more.  Which despite the premarket opening activity here (down 40 points) argues that some news item, or other, will be ceremonially blamed and down 150 or so is where the morning dart landed.

Ukraine:  Dictatorship?

What do you call it when the president of a country (put in power with Europower and US cookies) threatens martial law if the “peace process” is derailed?

Say, didn’t anyone send this fellow the new Russian Military Doctrine unveiled last week that pointed at the West/NATO as major threats to Russia?  And didn’t Ukraine just drop non-aligned nation status and throw in with the bankster crowd?

Naturally, they promise a vote, but say, those wouldn’t be ex-Florida machines, would they?

Crash Debris

That plane crash a few days back (Airbus A-320) has yielded some bodies and gloating debris.  My guess (as a pilot) is that the plane experienced a catastrophic engine event and attempted a descent, or the turbulence of the storm was simply too much.

Pilots in recurrent training are taught that what rips wings off in turbulence is keeping on too much power.  Airspeed needs to be cut at least in half, but there’s a natural instinct from pilot training to keep on power because that gives you climb if you need it when the “bottom drops out” – which is where the too much power for conditions reaction comes from.  Just a guess, however.  Having been in severe turbulence I can tell you instincts are a terrible beast to be overcome when it’s like being in a blender on the frappe setting…

Passings

Luise Rainer, at 104. First winner ever of back-to-back Oscars back in the 30’s.  Oh, and who were the other’s to do that?  The story has more Trivial Pursuit questions than most, which why it is worth reading.

Speaking of People (as in Magazine)

Had to grab the ViseGrips with this headline:  “Argentina’s President Adopts Jewish Boy to Keep Him from Turning into a Werewolf.”

Even in rehab, this would be a tough one to make up.

Another Obama Golf Story

OK, so Obama plays more golf than Eisenhower.  Unlike Ike, I don’t think there’s an Obama Tree on any course yet.  There used to be an Eisenhower Tree up until this past February, however.

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Coping: Finding Your Personal Retrograde

Aha!  The learning never stops around here, but this morning we’ve managed to sneak up on a key bit of personal learning.

First, let’s talk about the trip to the Social Security office yesterday. 

It turned out to be a pleasure.

First off, the fellow at the front desk recognized us from before.  And, when we weren’t getting enough/right answers from him, he was kind enough to provide access to the fellow who ran the office.

There had been a clerical error on my address – but there was also a calendar issue, so we will find out when that rolls around in about 2-weeks if all our problems miraculously disappear on that date.

Meantime, we had some waiting to do…and I got to talking with the guard.  Nice fellow, planning to retire in three years himself, get a Winnebago and travel all 49-states you can get to without swimming.

I was going to explain to him that by then, he might want to include the states of Tijuana, Sonora, Baja, and perhaps as far south as the state of Quintana Roo along with Campeche and Yucatan.

There was a bit of blood on my tongue, as I continued to bite it, realizing that explaining how the North American Onion was gong to work, how British Columbia would also be a state by then, and within 5-years, it would just have to be the “State of Columbia” because the British were not the grand guardians of social welfare as any of the real historians of BC would attest.  And the word British part would have to be axed on political grounds simply in honor of the suffering of the coastal bands such as the Haida Gwaii..  (You can probably see why I dummied up:  It would have been a long discussion.)

Instead, I asked him about the short office hours, and if someone shows up at 2:30 for an appointment whether they would be kicked out at the 3 PM office closing time.  No, he assured me, they actually stay open until 4:30 most days (sometimes later) to make sure everyone is seen.

That was reassuring and I get better about my tax dollars.  Private sucktor folks still end up about 200 vacation days short in 50 years, but did I have a cheese to go with that whine?

By the time I’d met all the folks in the office, it was pretty clear that the office doesn’t have a 27-hour workweek, as the sign says.  That’s basically the “Public should show up time.”  They get seen, the guard fellow explained.

Good one to know.  Rather than “hours” the sign really ought to read:  Show Up Between (and then list the hours). But not everyone is as literal as us.

In the case of my own application, I screwed up by questioning Social Security’s income record.  I had noted in my application, at the time of filing, that my records of income and theirs had some discrepancies. 

Turns out that part of Social Security’s public face says Social Security benefits are based on wages.  But, after two of the trips to the office, turns out they were based (in my case) on the IRS SE Worksheet.

This has had me buried in the research into how Schedule SE was supposed to work in 2008, for example.

Schedule SE is the Self Employment worksheet.  And my income there was $xx,xxx.  However, the amount of income that I paid income tax on was $xxx,xxx.

What hadn’t been clear to me at the time (and I think there’s still something smoldering in all this) is that the SE schedule was lower and that is the number used by Social Security. 

A little history check here:  No wonder government called it a “tax credit” rather than what the reductions as a “tax credit” for self employed persons is:  It makes a definite reduction in Social Security payments in later years, when the SE number, not the actual “paid tax on number” is used.  Definite lack of candor at the time, typical of the PTB.

In fact, to my way of thinking, it’s typical of Washington doublespeak:  Tell small business they are getting a tax credit for small business owners.  And then screw them on the back-end when comes time to collect Social Security.  But I’m not going to change that – it’s just the way it is…the problems are almost always with the people who write the laws, not the federal workers who are generally good folks. Vacation and bennies differentials aside.

Speaking of which…let’s not forget that president what’s-his-name has just made matters worse in regard to turning federal employees into praetorian minions:  Remember the feds minimum wage is $10.10 but for the private sucktor, the min-wage is still $7.25.

When I tell you federal employees are “special” I’m not a-kidding.  But, how soon we forget them pen-strokes.

“OK, you fixed your Social Security problem (for now) so would you please get to the retrograde stuff?”

Ah…Well, I got home and then spent a full hour on the line with CenturyLink tech support.  Our internet connectivity has become unacceptable.  Day before Christmas.  Too many retried and I’ve been working on that problem for six days, now.  They issue credits, I call the next day for another because it’s still broken.

The good news:  I will be getting free internet access until they fix it so it will stream again.  The bad news:  The won’t be until January 30th until 7 PM says the tech.

I bet you didn’t know that CenturyLink actually has a Bandwidth Exhaustion Department, did you?  This is what one of the techs told me.

Apparently, there’s no point to stopping additional sales just because there’s insufficient capacity…just add a department to fix it.  Then you can justify six ways to Sunday, rolling in the money, and loving it!

No worries in terms of UrbanSurvival/Peoplenomics:  We have a high speed satellite connection which gets us 10-down and 3-up, but only when the weather is clear.  Less in rain and not at all in storms….but I will be needing to buy more bandwidth.  We eat 3-4 GB per day around here, up to 6-when I run multiple Nostracodeus runs.

About here, I got to wondering  (lights went off between my ears, a truly unique experience)  if I was somehow in the “Mercury retrograde penalty box?”

You see, Mercury is retrograde in January (the window is the 16-24th with the hot day being Jan 21).

I’ve been a reasonably lucky guy most of my life, but I do have some retrograde periods, and I’m in one now but coming out of it.

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Markets: Wake Me Up Tomorrow

There’s not much point rushing into work this morning. This’ll be a quiet day, more’n likely, with people giving what about the victory speeches around the coffee maker. In terms of economic news? A few minor nit today, like the Dallas Fed report later this morning, a bunch of interest rate yawners, and if that doesn’t pump your blood pressure up, there is last week’s money supply data. Tomorrow things return to “normal” for this time of the month:

Coping: The How Many Hour Work Week?

Once again this morning, Elaine and I will be going down to the local Social Security office when it opens (9AM) because they can’t seem to be able to generate a benefits verification letter for me, nor are they able to handle an in-person request for spouse benefits.

This will be our third in-person visit.  We’ve already spent 8+ hours on the phone, and so far all we get is the administrative run-around.

Nevertheless, I got to looking at their office hours and concluded that I’ve been in the wrong businesses for the past 49-working years.

The local office is “open” on the following hours:

Hours:

Monday
9:00 AM – 3:00 PM  

Tuesday
9:00 AM – 3:00 PM

Wednesday
9:00 AM – 12:00 PM

Thursday
9:00 AM – 3:00 PM

Friday
9:00 AM – 3:00 PM

“Open” doesn’t mean problems get solved.  Just “seen”.

What’s more, it doesn’t appear that more than one person (plus one guard) actually work in the place, because the times we’ve been there, there’s only been one window open and no other office activity noticed.

And no other cars…

With my problem (and about 12-hours invested in time, phone calls, travel, research, etc.) I figured the place would be hopping with activity.  But no, not so far.  They have room for bowling and archery in the halls.  Maybe today that will change.

What did catch my eye is that Social Security locally, anyway, seems to be open just 27-hours during a full week.  This week, however, it will be open just 24-hours.  If I was being mean-spirited, I would mention that Federal workers enjoy 10-paid holidays per year.  In most of the private sectors I’ve worked for, the average was six holidays, although one had seven.

Again, not to quibble, but if you’re in a real job (you know, the kind with accountability, unpaid overtime, and all the rest), you should RUN not walk to the local Social Security Office or get online and fill out a job application.

Click over to the Federal Employee Retirement System’s details and you’ll be able to compare how it works when held up to the private sucktor.

These people have mastered the system.  With over 20-million government workers, it’s past the point where we can ‘lick ‘em” – it’s time to join ‘em.  Get a high-paying government job as soon as you can. 

The four-holiday per year part especially bothers me.  Since I will have worked 50-years, by the time a benefit shows up (that is if they can ever get off their butts and do something besides shuffle problems, rather than fix them)  people like us (of the working class) will have been screwed (comparatively) out of 200 work days which is 40 freaking weeks over a working life.  This old-man view is important to see when you’re young enough to do something about it.

Yeah, yeah, I get that they have 50-million customers and some of them are scammers.  But they also have 60,000+ people.  Sounds like a lot?  I mean 833-customers per year?

Consider in a reasonable 2,000 work year.  That should be 2.4 hours per customer per year.  We’ve already passed 13-hours invested in what should be simple problems.  But before we get these insolvable bugs fixed, I’m willing to be on at least another 10-hours.  The magic of automated 2-hour hold times, huh?

That’s OK.  It has given me time to consider how to respond, in kind.  A complaint based on age discrimination seems to be a good starting point.  Plus letters and filings about employee performance to the office of the counsel general.

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Modeling 2015, Part 1

This weekend and next week, we will be keeping a “tight” focus on our outlook for 2015 which – much as I hate to say it – continues bullish into the new year. Although an end-of-year rally will be satisfying to a lot of people, there are some technical reasons why the rally may continue even into 2017 – and it’s a set of reasons that will have us looking back at market data from the 1920’s (and earlier) for comparisons, this weekend and on Wednesday. But comparisons are complicated because (like it or not) humans are “coming out of the investment loop.” And as this happens, the “meaning of money” is changing. And that gets us into crypto currencies and then….

Markets: Trading in an Alternate Dimension

It would be so easy to become filthy rich, if only we had a time machine that could advise us in advance of what’s coming.

There have been (and still are) plenty of efforts to obtain one.  The latest “secret ingredient” being used is software, and it’s working out OK for a very few.  But time machines have their limits, and when we get glimpses of the future by using advanced technology, while the information may be pretty good, it is often not tradable.

Take this week, for example: On Tuesday, chief code-slinger Grady at our www.nostracodeus.com project posted this:

Predictions:  There are indications that near Christmas, news about Ebola and North America could ‘ramp up’. (WHO indicates there is still a danger of Ebola breaking out and spreading ‘World Wide’.) Ebola Vaccine research in Switzerland is halted.

The Event monitor suggests there may be an attack by ISIS or ISIL tomorrow or Thursday. There are hints that it could be directed against the USA and/or its assets.  The event monitor uses the same algorithm that, among other successes, predicted the Washington State school shooting last October.  As with all human attempts at peering into the future, sometimes the event monitor is wrong.

So how did it all work out?

Ebola:  The very next day, the Washington Post run the story that there was a lot of exposure of scientists to Ebola.  I think we count that a hit.

And about the ISIS (ISIL if you’re John Kerry) outlook?  Well, there’s the shoot-down of a Jordanian aircraft reported, with the pilot being held by ISIS.  But whether that’s real is somewhat debated since Jordan is playing an updated version of the old song by Bob Dylan “It ain’t me, babe.”

In terms of human vs. human, there was the Berkeley, MO shooting which will give the mainstream divisive media yet more opportunity to sell the leftist anti-cop side of digital anarchy.  Law enforcement, however, got ahead of the curve on this one and was super-quick rolling out videos of the scene, and as a result perhaps, much of the activity (so far) has remained peaceful.  Except for the violent parts and arrests.  But it hasn’t gone viral on any action networks designed to mass agitate.

All of which is interesting (in that the holiday worked out more or less to our linguistic expectations, but the bottom line to all the technology and reading hundreds of thousands of pages is what? 

Unfortunately, not really tradable information. 

Oh, I suppose  Jordan could have grounded flights, CDC  could have released its data earlier instead of what has the odor of “butt covering” and maybe the police in Missouri could have put a body-cam testing program in place.

But from the investor stand point (which is what we focus on around here) what really matters is that Dow is in record territory and the odds of a collapse between now and the end of trading for the week is just about zero.

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Coping: Managing Your Personal Profit & Loss

I wanted to begin with a few comments about the “Tyranny of Things” that we all have to deal with. To do so, we need to think in terms of financial pro formas first, however. What is a pro forma? Think of it as the “imaginary set of financial expectations.” A good businessperson doesn’t “just happen” to make money when growing a company.

Coping: A Christmas Statistical Note to Atheists

Since the markets are closed in the US for the holiday, I wanted to get up early this morning anyway and drop you a quick note.

A few of our atheist readers bash Christmas, so let’s run some numbers, shall we?

Authoritatively, the Smithsonian estimates the number of cells in a human body at around 37.2 trillion.  That’s 37.2 for me, and 37.2 for you. almost 75-trillion cells between us.  Most of those cells have to be doing their jobs in order for us to be having this chat.

Now, you take this morning:  I got up and engaged my trillions of cells with billions upon billions of local atoms.  Waste was recycled, my clothes were where I put them last night, and my vision was sharper when a few hundred million molecules were placed on my face; my glasses.

I opened the door and Zeus the Cat  (about 2-trillion cells worth) sauntered in like he does every morning, purred, complained, and got fed.

After feeding Zeus (extra sprinkle of catnip for the holiday) I made my morning coffee. 

Argonne National Labs has a discussion about how many molecules there are in a cup of water over here:

“(224 grams of water) divided by (18 grams per mole) = 12.4 moles
(12.4 moles of water)(6.02×10^23) molecules per mole = 7.5×10^24 molecules in the 8 ounce glass of water.

I used about 44 (followed by 24 zeros) worth of molecules to make the pot of coffee.  I won’t bore you with the calculations on the coffee itself, but let’s simplify that to “lots.”  Applying so many  kCals (or BTU’s, your choice) of heat, the coffee was excellent, as always.

Now, hold that thought for a sec and let me point out another one for you:

Take dice – just one die:  The odds of rolling 6 sixes in a row right here, right now on your first try is exactly one in 46,656.  The odds of rolling the same thing tomorrow morning, again on your first try, to have two such occasions back-to-back are one in 2.176 trillion.  Things become outlandishly improbable by Saturday.

Back this morning:  I’m now 65-years old.plus or minus a ham sandwich.

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Surveying the Road to Riches for 2015

What does an FA-18 Hornet going transonic just before busting up over Mach 1 have to do with why Ford brands a car as its “Mach One” and how does this fall figure into the price of oil and where to make the next smart investment?

It’s all in how you “grid the world.”  It’s something we all do, but it’s not something often articulated because it all goes back to parenting, schooling, jobs, and the bouncing around through life.

But ultimately, how well you do on the financial side of the house is decided by two simple concepts:  How you think and its next door neighbor what you think about most.  And then it all distills down to what you do about it.

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18,000 in the “Sugar-Plum Fairy” Economy?

Oh-oh, the price of oil is ticking back up, ever so slightly ($56 and change when I looked) but at least gasoline prices are not completely recovered.  The Triple A fuel gauge report shows $2.376 while a year ago was $3.25. 

Of course, we all know that when the gas price drops much more, the cost of the taxes will soon outweigh the cost of the underlying product. In California with their love of state revenue, the tax is 71.3-cents a gallon.

You might want to tank-off Monday or Tuesday or next week, since prices tend to go up around holidays. 

Sure, it may only be a few cents, but cents become dollars, and dollars become taxes, or something like that.

Before we get into the serious part of this morning’s report, I’d like to suggest you share some 4-way before hand, or you’ll miss the effect of Popular Delusions fed by federal statistics.

First up we have the GDP figures for November.  May I have the envelope, please>

“Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.9 percent. With the third estimate for the third quarter, both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated (see “Revisions” on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment.

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. The acceleration in the percent change in real GDP reflected a downturn in imports, an upturn in federal government spending, and an acceleration in PCE that were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in state and local government spending, in residential fixed investment, and in nonresidential fixed investment.

Estimate GPD for Q3 is $17.5998 trillion.  America’s Public Debt to the Penny this morning was around $18.028 trillion.

If you had debts in your personal life of $18,028 dollars and annual income $17600 dollars, how would you describe your condition?

I mean it’s not insurmountable (almost unavoidable for a while if you own a home) but in the FedGov’s case, they aren’t buying a home….

Next on the breakfast specials, we have Durable Goods, the big stuff that doesn’t wear our in 10-minutes.

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in
November decreased $1.7 billion or 0.7 percent to
$242.3 billion, the U.S.

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Coping: With the Christmas Run-Up

Comes that time of the year when I go through my “seasonal changes” and make ready for my “New Years Revolutions.”

But not before savoring this year a bit more and passing on some of my “best of class learning” for the year.

Seems to me that a reasonable thing to do each year is to spend a little bit of time (if only an hour) sitting down to ask the really important questions, like.

Is my health better or worse than last year?

Did I learn anything important this year?

Did I share things that really mattered?

Am I ready for the coming year?

Am I still in love and full of the boundless energy that comes with love offered and returned?

What are the biggest problems in your life and are you working on solving them?

I think if a person can answer yes to those, they’re got life wired.

Having said that, I’ like to go through a few of my personal responses to this list because odds are good that you might be able to borrow an idea or two.

On Health

Our health is as good, or better, than last year.  We eat exceptionally “close to source.”  Which means instead of using a lot of processed foods, we eat simple fare.

Take breakfast, for example.  I’ve mentioned my “cottage cheese pancakes” now and then and you might want to experiment with the recipe, which is really simple as all get-out.

You take your favorite pancake mix (we use either Krusteaz or Pioneer) and for each cut of dry ingredient you add 2-somewhat heaped-up tablespoons of cottage cheese.  The drier stuff works better than a runny brand for the applications.

Then you add cold water (just like always) except you make the mix a little thicker than normal.  About like a good oat meal.

That’s it.  Place in a well-buttered pan and cook the first side to golden brown (picture above) and then flip. 

A little butter and some pure maple syrup and what you have is a pseudo-blintze in hardly any time at all.

On Learning

Oh, gosh, where to begin?  I go through books like crazy:  Non-fiction.  I look at the library as going “concept fishing” whenever I get a spare moment.  Just this morning on the throne I managed to absorb the fundamentals of the Sears-Haack body and how that may be one of the secrets to getting a few more knots out of the old Mouse.  We’ll see.

I try to keep one or two non-fiction books going all the time:  Pick up a page here and there and first thing you know, you’ve got a lot of knowledge, even about a hobby like ham radio, gun-smithing, or whatever turns your crank.

Sharing Things that Matter

I don’t know if I have ever mentioned this, but both Elaine and I are “shower people.”   It’s either the negative ions (released by falling water and lightning storms, or showers, which is why some people like to get up and hit the shower as much as they hit the coffee first thing…).  The idea of sitting in a tub is not particularly attractive, since you’re stewing in your own dirt.

For some reason until I was about 40, I had always thought of the personal showers hose attachments as an “old person’s” deal.

Something like the Waterpik SM 653 CG Original 6-Mode Massage Handheld Shower, Chrome which runs about $25 bucks.

The reason I like the handheld shower extension is that it has a “high pressure” mode which is ideal for doing a daily “pressure wash” of certain body parts.  Oh?  Yes, of course “there” but also since most have a pressure blasting setting, they get soap out of the hair in a lot less time…and if you every wake up in the morning (thinking something died in your mouth from the previous night) they can also work like an over-sized WaterPik to wash your mouth out.

So if you know anyone who doesn’t have one of these, and who is addicted to the morning showers these things are great…been using them for years, just don’t think I mentioned it before.

The most recent place (outside home)  we ran into ‘em, I think, was up at the Dodge City Boot Hill Casino a few years back.  2011?  We’d flown in (KDDC is hard to see if you’re new to flying that part of the world, the runway looks like dirt, about the same color, but it’s really paved…ended up flying the GPS until we could see the barely visible runway numbers back then).

To make a long story longer, I don’t know if I looked particularly haggard, or what, but they put us in an ADA compliant room, and shower wands are a requirement.  So we didn’t bother changing rooms (ADA rooms are larger with more room to move about) and ever since we’ve been huge fans of shower wands.

Consider yourself “shared” upon.  And if you’re under 50, still thinking shower wands are a waste, give them a try.  It solves the marriage problem of “I like showers like rain”  (Elaine). She’s so meticulous with it, she doesn’t even get the glass doors wet in the shower.

Me, on the other hand?  Call FEMA when I hit the shower.  Set  the hose to pressure-washing mode and 70 PSI, thanks.  Hell yeah…ceiling is wet and so is everything else within 8-feet by time I get done with pressure-washing. Such a clean disaster area you’ve never seen.

One other idea here (kind of a crackpot thing, but you find quirks amusing, right?):  I have a pet theory that people who don’t rinse off well enough after showers set themselves up for health problems later in life: 

The thinking is that soap residues are probably bad for you.  I figure they may block the skin from doing its job OR residues might be absorbed.  So I’m one of those people who uses soap only on the hair, pits, and there.  The hands get clean doing the elsewhere sudsing (if that’s a word) and washing your soap.  (If soap was meant to have hair on it, I’m sure P&G would make a brand that way…but that’s way TMI, lol.)  [That’s just sick and groady enough to become a hit product…hmmm…]

Am I Ready for the Coming Year?

No.,  I would be, but here’s the thing:  We have been down to the Social Security Office twice and spent 7 1/2 hours of phone time and they are a totally F/U’ed organization.  We may try it again this morning, but as I said before, they can’t manage 50-million people getting benefits with a dozen products while Amazon manages 250-million and tens of thousands of products.

Except for Social Security being incredibly bureaucratic (I sent  complaints to my congressoid and sinator, but since I know they didn’t read the last budget bill, the odds of any real action on my behalf are about bupkis…

Other than that, yes.  Ready.  We would otherwise be all chilled, kicked, and enjoying the remnants of 2014.  But thanks to Social Sec.

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Santa the Bear Sleigher

Oh, goodie, goodie!  Joyous Glad Tidings all around.  Presents for the Boyz, nog for the reindeer.

Santa has just dropped a National Activity Increase in our stockings early.  And what it shows is that growth in November speeded up a bit.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +0.48 in November from +0.09
in October, reaching its highest level since May 2010. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests modest inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

As you, um, head-off to work this morning, we must have missed this in our weekend Peoplenomics report, but here it is, another bank failure, this one a little bank up in the north woods somewhere:

Northern Star Bank, Mankato, Minnesota, was closed  by the Minnesota Department of Commerce, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with BankVista, Sartell, Minnesota, to assume all of the deposits of Northern Star Bank.

The two branches of Northern Star Bank will reopen as branches of BankVista during their normal business hours. Depositors of Northern Star Bank will automatically become depositors of BankVista. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship in order to retain their deposit insurance coverage up to applicable limits.

Of course, what no one bothers to mention is that there has been a continuing flow of bank failures ever since IndyMac kicked off the Second Depression’s Bank Failure Season.  We’re up, by my count, somewhere north of 6,500 branch closures now. In fairness, a lot of those didn’t come from financial failures, so much as electronics replaced the need for physical locations and as a result, well, off with more heads.

Except Santa’s – the Dow futures are up 50 even if oil is still on its ass.

Meantime, the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellin’s remarks last week about being patient with regards rates have trigger emerging markets to become a bit concerned.  This article in the Irish Times for example says these markets might want to fasten seat belts for the period ahead.

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Coping: Which Disaster to Prep For?

This morning I’d toss out the idea that earthquake preps are worth reviewing, even if it is the holiday and subjects like prepping might best be spared for some other time of the year.

It has been observed, on dozens of forums around the net, that quakes seem like they happen around major holidays and we’re in one of those periods right now, where we have major holidays all over the place.  When you look at the various maps, you can see that earthquake potential is particularly high for the US as plates do the “bump and grind” with us dancing on top of ‘em.

There’s possibly a scientific reason why seasonality would be the case:  Maximum stress on the tectonic plates would reasonable come when the earth’s tilt is at any of four conditions during the year:

    • When the summer solstice occurs in North America around June 21
    • When the winter solstice occurs (about now)
    • And the two equinoxes about midway in-between

    The “holiday thing” doesn’t act alone:  There are probably other factors at play, as well.  Southern California lore suggests that quakes happen 18-months to 24-months after periods of exceptional rain.

    Another theory – and this was shown in the movie 2012 in the opening scenes where particles from the Sun were the culprit.  Since we have just had a boatload of those arrive, we’re left to ponder whether planets “condense” energy into matter around Suns.

    Earthquakes seem like an easy thing to prep for, too:  Food, water, enough pipe cement to put PVC pipes back together, and maybe some other items, as well:  Routes to work which reduce the amount of time spent on (or under) elevated roads and bridges.  Few have the luxury of moving from post and tension construction buildings, but in the past dozen years, countries like India have been paying much closer attention to earthquake resistance of post & tensioned buildings.

    OK, about here you’re thinking “OK, Ure has his little neck hairs up about the possibility of a major earthquake because of the solstice and Holidays.  Got it.  Next thought, please?”

    Not so fast.

    My real topic that I’m warming to is the definition of what prepping is, and why people do it.

    After thinking about it a good bit, perhaps 10-years or so, I’ve decided that prepping as presently expressed on the web is mostly “Personal Continuation Planning.”

    Yet the one thing we don’t do an especially good idea of prepping for is death.

    Not that it hasn’t been heavily monetized.  Of course it has!  If you tithe me 20% of everything you make, I’ll be sure to put in a good word for you in the Afterlife.  If there is such a thing.

    And this gets me to what is on my mind:  I’m curious to find our (research help request follows) as to whether you have run into any of the following data which I’d find extremely interesting:

    1.  Are prepper sorts more (or less) likely to believe in Something Bigger Than Them?

    2.  Are preppers also seriously into alternative medicines (vitamin regimens and oils and therapies of one sort, or another) than are people untouched by the “prepper” label?

    3.  Last, but not least, are Preppers any more or less afraid of death/dying than is the general population of the USA?

    Every morning I get up, look at my “Threat Board” – just a collection of headings under which I store risks to “personal continuation” 

    I use the seven major systems of life approach (Food, shelter, communications, transportation, energy, environment including medicine, and finance).

    Then I look at each one of these every morning, or two, and assess our personal exposures.

    For example, under the House label:  We have certain risks that we can quantify, and some we can’t.  An example of the risks we can quantify, I would list our septic system.  We know it works like a champ and since it’s the old style that doesn’t depend on electricity for pumping water and effluent around) we are quite happy with it.  Which means we pay much more attention than most people as to what happens at the “far end of the flush.”

    That’s a risk we manage by having yearly tank emptying and we use lots of bacteria starters (and the odd can of tomatoes whose acid offsets some of the ammonia build-up) so if we needed to run five years (or longer) without service, we could do it.

    Still, we’ve thought through that part of “personal continuation” a good ways and having a backup septic system may seem extreme, but hey, so is having more than a year of food and water.  At some point, you just have to get back to living sustainably, whether you like it or not.

    OK, two years of food then and five years of seeds…let’s not quibble.  These are risks that you can put a pencil to and they are actually pretty low.

    The number of people in the continental USA who are restarting life due to EMP of major earthquake after-effects is…uh…how about zero?

    Still, the threat list keeps us honest:  Every year lots of people lose their homes to tornadoes.  So backing up everything (tax records and electronic backup documentation) off site makes sense.

    But back to point:  Is that to be considered prepping or is that just personal continuation planning?

    I’m debating whether I should add an eighth and ninth item to my “Threat Board.”  Death/Dying is one nominee.

    There’s plenty of reason to:  We know for example, that excess weight kills.  Directly from heart attack and from companion disease like diabetes and so forth. 

    The reason I’m adding that to my threat board is that it dawned on my this weekend while I was working on my novel, that I do far too much sitting and writing.  I need more exercise and a lack of that will kill you slower, but with far more certainty than a dictator in North Korea or furious mobs from Ferguson.

    Elaine is one of those people who automatically works out every day.  Some kettle ball reps, some free weights, yoga-like stretches for 15-20 minutes, and being exceptionally active around the house.

    I have trouble with that, although lately I’ve been taking the odd call while on the treadmill walking.

    Our latest vitamin testing continues with L-Carnosine  (NOW Foods L-carnosine 500mg, 100 Vegetarian Capsules) and, when it gets here, PQQ (such as PQQ 20mg (Pyrroloquinoline Quinone) 30 vegecaps).  We’ll let you know how the additional research goes and no, this is not medical advice, just an update on what we’re doing.

    Hat tip to reader Douglas for the PQQ tip and there’s a ton of data on the stuff over at the PubMed site of the National Institutes of Heath. Or, just put it into the search engine of your choice and sit back and be amazed.

    And that’s the point:  Adding Death/Dying/How to Avoid or Postpone It as a tab on our Threat Board (which has gotten big enough to become a OneNote workbook in and of itself).  And secondly, that we are not giving up on the personal testing of vitamins and our responses to them.

    Last, but not least,  we are becoming extremely concerned with the increasing levels of polarization in America.  Those six corporation that control 90% of news coverage are working us – us being the general public- to their own profit-oriented ends.

    When media touts and promotes divisive views by working the public’s “hot buttons” it simpley makes them rich and raises the general stress levels in life.

    We don’t need that.  When positive economic feedback encourages negative social feedback which is precisely what’s going on.

    The biggest unstated socioeconomic problem out there is the impact on society of rewarding corporations for “steering news.” 

    When assignment editors began to receive bonuses based on shares and ratings, America’s collapse began in earnest.  Instead of a focus on “What Unites Us” we’re now wallowing in a sea of “What Divides Us” while the profiteers of racism and sexism use classical divide and conquer to destroy America.  Us versus Them is a load of crap.  We’re all us, at least around here.

    What’s more, when organizations take up slogans like “No Justice, No Peace” it’s an affront to the social order.  I would suggest that calls for “No Peace” are thinly veiled calls for insurrection and anarchy.  Just fuzzy enough to skate and pull partisans into false debate. 

    Let’s think this through, though, shall we? Destroy peace and what do you have left?  What’s really on the other side?   That lack of analysis is what gained Al Sharpton the label “racial arsonist.”

    Of course this enrages the left.

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