DCBT: Dead Cat Bounce Thursday


Let’s try a novel approach to news for a change, shall we?  Let’s pretend none of it is real.  Or, at least not so real as it’s made out to be.

So, this doctor walks into the hospital room, looks you in the eye and announces this:

Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.  However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.  Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated. “

You look up from your hospital bed astounded by the audacity of your attending financial doctor.

Doc, I have been pistol whipped by bankers, my last three jobs have been jacked to India, and the administration is throwing open the borders so even more poor people can come here and under-bid me! 

My house has been repo’ed, but I own six cars because that how we were going to save ‘Merica, right?  And you have the boobdacity to tell me what about patience?”

For a brief moment, your doctor weighs a deeper answer.  But there is no choice.

Unlike medicine (“First, do no harm…”) there is no corresponding hold harmless in Economics.  So again the doctor repeats, like you’re a complete, blithering moron:

Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. 

Since there are no real weapons for inmates of the Monetary Institute, you try a different tack:

“Wait Doc!  Hear me out:  When you came by yesterday, you told me “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability “  But don’t you see Doc, that open borders are at odds with maximum employment for those already freaking HERE?”

The doctor eyes you with contempt.  The insult of it all…having a patient of all people, telling her, the doctor that economic largess is supposed to stop at the border… She turns to leave.

I’ll check back with you…let me see…March 18th, then…  Remember, those people are just seeking asylum…and you’re just lucky enough to be already in one…”

No sooner had the door closed than it’d thrust open again and a huge orderly, the guy was 6’6” and 300 pounds of rippling muscle, advances toward your best.  Noticing leather restraints you try to move.  He’s carrying a large needle.

I have money.  I have an IRA… I have my kids school fund.  See?  Says right here in the NY Times (nodding toward a table) that the President had withdrawn plans to tax the 529 school savings plans…so I have money….oh God….not again….”

A burning sensation in the veins of your right arm begins for the umpteenth time.  And the last thing you hear drifting out of consciousness is something garbled…something like

”… Executive Order or Hillary will do it when we put her in…”

Eyes Wide Shut

Suddenly, you’re conscious again.  Over on the wall, a television seems to be on a money channel.

…after dropping nearly 200 points Wednesday following Dr. Yellen’s Fed Statement, looks like the market will score some solid gains today with Dow futures up a solid 40 points…”

“You idiots…the Dow lost almost five times that yesterday!”  The television seems not to notice.

It’s no use.  Big smiles and talk of recovery pepper the rapid-fire market hype.

There’s a quick knock at the door.  A cleaning lady comes in.

“Morning, sah.”

“Good morning, Mary…any news on reality…that stuff outside this damn place?”

“Uh huh.  Germany is now in deflation, but the headlines are careful to keep the word “inflation” in the story so’s mos people won’t catch on…”

Any other real news you can tell me?  My doctor…she keeps me locked up and tells me to be patient and wait till her next visit which won’t be for two months….

“Oh, sure.  The 12-month M1 increase is settling out at 9.5% for 2014…and since prices have gone up a bout 1.4%, us cleaners are thinking deflation here is running about 8.1% now…but I’m ain’t sayin that outside this room because you’re a crazy person and I can say anything I want to say  to you.”

What about the Baltic Dry Index….it was down to 666 yesterday and it always leads the market by 90-day, or more…what’s it doing?

“Well it’s down another 34 points…down to 632 and those are levels we haven’t seen since the 2009 bottom.  But don’t be telling anyone else, dis stuff cuz it’d rile up dah whole wing…I best be going… I’ll see if I can get you dah new GDP numbers tomorrow morning when I come by…”

You vow silence fearing another visit from the big orderly with the needle.

And in Other News

Somewhere, in another room a radio has been flipped on.  Hard to make out all of it, but you catch bits here and there.

“…Asia where the MH370 crash has been declared an accident….”

“…The CEO of McDonalds is stepping aside….”

“…and in our editorial this morning, we’ll be asking why is the Fort Hood shooter still alive?  That and more just ahead…”

Suddenly, the door bursts open and the big orderly is back. wielding another long needle.  You close your eyes and wait for the sting.  Left arm this time.  As the burning sensation works its way up to your armpit a thought makes a made dash before you do down:  This is oh so very….very….

As you sleep, a cat which flew up past your window earlier, silently falls toward ground, again.

4 thoughts on “DCBT: Dead Cat Bounce Thursday”

  1. My word, this is one of THE BEST write-ups I’ve seen in a very long time! … It characterizes everything SO well, in such a brief manner, and even gives me an opportunity to laugh (which is a genuine blessing, given the horror-show load of ‘stuff’ that is circling around us today!)
    … THANK YOU, sincerely, for this great article
    Best Regards, Ron

  2. I’m still waiting to hear just how “deflation” is hurting me when I’m NOT invested in bankers or the stock market – what hurts MY wallet is inflation – constant inflation on the things that keep me alive, covered, and transported (groceries, a house, and a car) – and my income is FIXED – it cannot be cured by any means at this stage (given that playing roulette in the stock market is a LONG term situation – as long as the end of that long term isn’t a full blown depression – where YOU the investor lose everything – including the shirt off your back and to eat you go stand in a soup line).

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