George Ure

We begin with coffee and context:

Here’s a little factoid you may not know, gleaned from the latest Experiment Aircraft Association magazine:

In July of 1929, Transcontinental Air Transport began to offer coast-to-coast air service.  It had ordered something like ten of the (then new) Ford Trimotor planes.

This was before precision GPS approaches, WAAS GPS, and even VORs.  These were daytime flyers because back then luxuries like runway approach lights (like VASI units) weren’t around, either.

“What could this possibly have to do with economics?” you’re wondering.

Ah…therein lies this morning’s thinking exercise, Grasshopper.

In order to see when we are at the “top” of a market, we really oughta see some new technology come online.  Like the TAT offering in July of that year, we would expect it to be a hybrid of current technologies.

But cool enough, that people would get the idea.  TAT was founded on the idea of flying coast to coast.  Since the airplanes couldn’t fly at night, people flew during the day, trained overnight, and then flew more the next day.

Our modern analog should become visible at some point – and if you have some dart throws (guesses) please feel free to send them along.

Oh, one other thing about TAT:  Their first airplane crash occurred exactly on the same day as the (up until then) all time market high around Dow 386 and change.  As Wikipedia tells is:

“On September 3, 1929 a westbound TAT flight crashed on Mt. Taylor in New Mexico, with loss of all aboard. The Associated Press said it was the first plane crash on a regular commercial land route.

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No, I suppose knowing that my personal experience of life is that I tend to “run ahead” of the actual dates of Mercury in Retrograde (which will officially end February 11th, or so), I shouldn’t be messing about with anything.

I should sit back, make my observations about life and the economy, and simply shut the hell up until we’re back in right place.

But a number of things have occurred this Retrograde which make it pretty interesting.

Case of the Mountain View

You may recall Tuesday when I liked life to a motorcycle ride I’d taken years ago around Mount Rainier up in Washington State.

A reader noticed something sketchy about Tuesday:

Hi George — There must have been some “mountain dew” in the air in TX yesterday.  Look what my friend Don (who has no idea who you are) wrote in his column yesterday from his friend’s house in Austin. 

Best,

Martha from RI

This doesn’t mean one person is right and another wrong, it just means that we all look at life in alternate ways, with each perspective unique. If you stand behind the trunk of a tree and look at the mountain, you’ll see one vantage point. If you go down by the river and check out the same view, you’ll see another. That’s all. Same mountain, different angle.

Then, in a subsequent email, turns out there was also a mountain angle to a comic strip or so such in the Boston area…same morning.

Odd how things cluster…or is it?  Her follow-up:

George — got another one for you…Frank DeMarco (from the Monroe Institute) is working on a new book and is posting his reference sessions online.  He’s interviewing his former psi partner from TMI, now deceased.  Today’s post is ostensibly about good and evil, but mostly it’s about truth being relative to which side of the mountain you’re viewing from.  More abstract than Cerow’s direct quote about a mountain, but the same concept.  And btw, if you want to know the ins & outs of reality creation, Frank’s books are every bit as good as Jane Roberts’ and easier to comprehend. 

http://hologrambooks.com/hologrambooksblog/index.php/2015/02/04/rita-more-on-good-and-evil/

This one may, or may not, be explainable.  If this is the same Frank DeMarco who used to read this column now and then, but no telling if he was by yesterday.

There is a point of learning here:  Does vision/insight/thought-form travel around us due to any number of inputs (like television, radio, music, the internet, books, etc) and just look for somewhere to land?

Frank’s a damn fine writer and thinker…his Amazon page is here. 

Case of the Solid-State Drive

Wouldn’t it be cool if there were particular astrological formations (like Retrograde) where each of us is more particularly  connected to IT? 

It doesn’t work at the hardware level, however.

The short story here is that for some weeks I have been tinkering with getting a new solid-state drive installed on the UrbanSurvival Super Computer.  No, I’m not kidding:  Its four monitors (two Nvidia dual multi-GB HDMI video cards, fast i-7 chipset, 12 GB of memory, an assortment of terabyte drives…this thing scares the hell out of me it’s so fast.

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You may not be too familiar with Project Syndicate, but it’s a non-profit business model designed to get great content out to the world in news ways – ways ignored by conventional (profit model) business models.

I’ve been sort of following their work and here comes this blow-your-socks-off article Monday by one of my favorite economics, Nouriel Roubini.  The whole piece, over here, is worth your time reading because he gets to the core problem we have been talking about for more than a year now:  Consumer Super-Saturation.  Check out this quote:

“Simply put, we live in a world in which there is too much supply and too little demand. The result is persistent disinflationary, if not deflationary, pressure, despite aggressive monetary easing. “

Well, I’ll be damned:  Someone besides old nutter-in-the-woods is saying it.

What’s more, there’s no simply solution.  What’s more, he’s pretty much in line with our skepticism of central banks, government interveners, and cryptocurrencies, too, as he says:

“This assortment of ‘Austrian’ economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs and bitcoin fanatics has repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the U.S. dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital cryptocurrency counterparts. “

I remember all the hate-mail to this day.  People were calling me a government stooge, and worse, because I had outlined four possible outcomes to the Bitcoin bubble and yet here we are, almost exactly a year from the failure of Mt. Gox and my article from the period (*here) still seems like a pretty good assessment.

A single Bitcoin this morning is down from the $1200 range where people were calling it the economic savior of freemen and all kinds of other labels a year ago to the sucking wind $240 area.  Yet here we are, a year later, and I am still watching the charts.

Worth repeating:  Bitcoin may, at some future juncture, along with the other cryptos, but for now the problem is we need a good war.

Not that war is good per se:  It’s dirty, messy, lots of people get dead, and all the rest of it.  But short of a massive West Coast Earthquake (in April, say), the odds of fixing this, or any other major world economic mess is pretty thin.

Unless we can bring in a whole bunch of new consumers.  Hmmm…

Making Up Jobs, Importing Consumers

Meantime, a shocking (or not so shocking, depending on your view of the Obama administration) says the government has issued 5.5 million new work permits to foreigners in the US since 2009.

The first line of the Center for Immigration Studies backgrounder outlines what’s been going on this way:

“Government data reveal that more than 5.5 million new work permits were issued to aliens from 2009 to 2014, above and beyond the number of new green card and temporary worker admissions in those years. This is a huge parallel immigrant work authorization system outside the limits set by Congress that inevitably impacts opportunities for U.S. workers, damages the integrity of the immigration system, and encourages illegal immigration.”

Already, the outrage is building with Breitbart headlining it as a “shadow authorization system” which it notes is outside the legal immigration system.

Critics of the Center for Immigration Studies will be quick to point out that it’s an anti-immigration group, but defenders will point to the laws and definition of the word “border” which Barrack and Eric seem to have missed in law school.

The Senate is due to take up defunding of executive amnesty – yet a further example of trying to rein-in the imperial presidency.

Still, there is some logic to the move, however twisted. 

First, and foremost, breaking down the border with Mexico REMAINS part and parcel of the still-underway North America Union movement, because the plan of globalists is a stepping stone approach to government:  First you have cities, then provinces or states, then national governments, then the regional blocks (like the EU, BRICs and the NAU still to come), and then World Government. Stampede them all with a climate scare and roll out the global taxes.,…

If that doesn’t work, Ebola II.

Secondly, however, is that additional humans from South America will stoke up demand for consumer goods here, add some badly needed jobs to the employment report (the next one is due out on Friday) and can be massaged past the liberal media by wrapping it up with pictures of tearful Hispanic families and hot phrases like “broken homes” and “reuniting families.”

The Holder replacement hearings saw exactly the same script by Ms.

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A long time reader (of this and multiple sites) sent in a fine message that deserves wider audience than the small number who received it.  It’s one of those stories that gets to the heart of parables, stories passed on that speak of greater truths.

There was once an old Chinese farmer. One day the old farmers only horse ran away and now he would have no horse to use to haul in his crops. Upon hearing this the villagers came out to see him. They said to the old Chinese farmer, So sorry to hear about your misfortune with your horse running away. The old Chinese farmer replied, “how do you know this is misfortune? The villagers shook their heads and walked away.

7 days later, the old Chinese farmer’s horse returned and with it brought 10 wild horses. Now, pulling in the crops would be even easier and any such loss in the farm suffered would be nothing compared the compensation received from selling the horses the old farmer sold. Upon hearing this the villagers came out to the old farmers and said, “you were right! Your horse running away was not misfortune!

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Oh, sure, the market will make one final little bounce at the open this morning.

The half-time show wasn’t ruined with a terrorism attack, the game was played like any other, but the one residual problem is called the Super Bowl Indicator.

Here’s how it works:

If the AFC wins, the Super Bowl Indicator claims the market will decline.  Since the Patriots were the winners of the AFC North (and won) while the Seahawks were NFC West, the market should decline markedly in short order.

Thankfully, I’m not the lone nutter on this:  the observation is backed up by an Investopedia entry.

The Investopedia entry is worth study because they claim the indicator has only about an 80% accuracy which is far less than my own 100% accuracy, lol.

So stand by for the stuff to hit the fan — Just not right away – as in this morning.

Still, given that the market is getting dangerously close to the 200 day moving average and the collapse in a heap last Friday…

I’ll check with Robin Landry to see how the monthly MACD closed, but I’m guessing it cross down.  But already my friend Roger Reynolds has checked in with this:

Do you know many certified financial planners??? IF so, ask them “IF” they follow the old FABIAN mutual fund switching system.—–That is, as long as the dow stays above it’s 200 day average——red line at stockcharts.com, then stay fully invested in stock mutual funds. “IF” the dow goes below the 200 day average(red line) then sell stock funds and go to cash.

In my opinion, they sold in October, but the fed goosed the market back up and they bought back pushing the averages to new highs. Now, the dow has fallen and is only about 100 points above that RED LINE. Will the dow fall and especially close below that red line??? WATCH CAREFULLY!!!! “IF” the dow closes below the red line, then the mutual fund switchers should once again sell everything.—-Consider, this is the way markets are supposed to top out—–volatility.

Of course, you can skip the Stanford MBA and the doctorate at the London School of Economics and just watch the Super Bowl.

Patriots of the AFC says it all.

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We begin today’s economics discussion with a bit of art history.

Specifically, with a picture of Christopher Columbus arguing his crazy “round the world” idea to the Council of Salamanca, a 1400’s intellectual group in Spain, from which the name is drawn.

The painting was done by Emanuel Leutze who almost no one has heard of, but everyone has probably seen his painting of Washington crossing the Potomac…

This has what, exactly, to do with the market?

Ah…to the point. 

The Council of Salamanca was a kind of intellectual arbitration group.  Things were proposed to the group and voted as fact or fiction and the King and Queen of Spain (usually) took their advice.

So that’s what the Council was.

In the modern world, we have similar such councils, groups, commissions and the like – and all with pretty much the same purpose:  The vote on “what’s real.”

Having written about the Greater Depression that we’re now in for 18 years now, I feel a bit like Columbus at times; arguing rational and science before a herd of sheep.  Occasionally, there will be some head-nodding, but that could just be the herd grazing.

Nevertheless we stand at a very important “do or die” day for the market today.

A major decline (such as the one hinted at by the futures) will indicate the next big leg of the decline could be getting underway.

Regrettably, the line in the sand by my friend Robin Landry’s work is 1990 to 1991 on the S&P 500 index.  In our Trading Model that Peoplenomics readers follow, we have a terribly interesting counterpoint:  Our Global Index has just broken to marginal new highs as of mid-week, compared with 2007’s peaking process, but if global markets drop back enough from Wednesday levels, then it will be a massive double top formation – of the sort spanning 7+ years.

At the larger zoom-out, we could see the declines since 2007 being replayed in short order.  There continues to be a viewpoint (mine) that when the Internet Bubble popped in 2001 (and between 5 and 7 trillion in values blew up) that was really the start of the Greater Depression.

Unlike the 1930’s event, we went promptly to war (albeit with the wrong country and on made-up intel) and the Fed lit off the largest housing bubble ever.  And all they had to do was fall in love with no doc loans and make M3 disappear and no one would notice.

I mean besides this nutjob in the woods.

While it is true that the stock market has more than recovered from the 11723 Dow peak in the spring of 2000, we have to take inflation into account.  Using the Minneapolis Fed calculator, the Dow would only need to beat 16,080 in 2014 to be at technical new highs, even on an “inflation adjusted basis.”

But is this really true?

Perhaps.

The US GDP in 2000 was 10.28 trillion. And this morning we get a fresh report on GDP to look at:

“Real gross domestic product — the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes — increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 5.0 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4 and “Comparisons of Revisions to GDP” on page 5). The “second” estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 27, 2015.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in imports, a downturn in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in PCE.

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, decreased 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the third.

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If you have Windows 7, or newer, and have not discovered the little utility program (Sticky Notes) you are missing one of the most useful little tools of computing out there.

Not like it’s a breakthrough, or anything like that.  My personal experience with this kind of thing goes back to my earlier days when Gaye of www.backdoorsurvival.com owned a successful computer company in Bellevue, Wa. that was sold off to a Baby Bell Operating Company (BBOC) in the late 1980’s. 

Back then, there was a program called “SideKick” which featured the (then new) ability to operate in “terminate and stay resident” mode. 

Called TSR, the features of SideKick originally included things like a calculator and it was from this, and a few other TSR programs and early PIMS (personal information management systems) that much of today’s modern computing “ease of use” came into being.

Before Windows, however, Borland’s SideKick was the serious computer geek’s secret weapon.  And it operated under DOS:

Sidekick 1.0 included Calculator, Notepad, Appointment Calendar, Auto Dialer, ASCII Table and other tools.

1.0 Plus[edit]

Sidekick 1.0 Plus included a broader selection of calculators (Business, Scientific, Programmer, Formula), a 9-file Notepad text editor, Appointment Book and Scheduler, a terminal communication tool and ASCII Table. In addition to variants on and enhancements to the 1.0 features, Plus included a 9-file Outliner, q file and directory manager, Clipboard, and supported Expanded Memory and a RAM disk. Control+Alt is the default shortcut to open sidekick 1.0 plus

The program was eventually rolled out as compatible with Windows (before they adopted year-dates, we’re talking 3.1 and earlier).

Anyway…for some reason I thought you’d get a kick out of knowing where some of us old-schooler’s got out taste for Sticky Notes….before the first mouse (and it wasn’t Apple’s) escaped from X-PARC.

But enough of history…on to my Friday notes collection.

Don’t Sue Me!

It occurred to me with all the solar power articles I wrote this week that I didn’t include our typical lengthy disclaimer.  The one where we say something like:

WORKING ON ELECTRICITY IS DANGEROUS:  All articles presented on this site are to stimulate thinking and discussion of  the art and science of alternative energy only.  We do not intend for you to actually do any of this work yourself.  Hiring a licensed professional electrician is the only way to go and if you ignore this advice you do so at your own peril.  This warning applies to everything on this site.  The electrician may even be a better stock-picker than most.

There; all happily disclaimed now.

Where’s the Dream?

Following yesterday’s discussion of Robert Shiller’s assessment of problems facing the global economy, a reader  (young/successful) took me to task:

The American people aren’t afraid of the future, they aren’t afraid of the road ahead, AS LONG AS GOVERNMENT (POLITICIANS, LAW ENFORCEMENT & CORPORATIONS AREN’T WAITING ON THE ROADSIDE TO POUNCE ON THEM), If we are afraid of anything it’s our corrupt, outlaw government taking over & destroying the world along with their crony parties in the Vatican, City of London & Israhell!

Hmmm…was I off base? 

I called my son to talk it over…had I misunderstood him, his friends, and lots of other 30-somethings?  I’ll paraphrase…

“Look dad, the guy probably makes good break..like 4-grand a month take home.  He’s lost the roots.

The reality is that even taking home $2,200 a month is about the least someone can work for here (Seattle) and break even.  That’s with a passable studio apartment, Obamacare, a little bit of food and not much else.

When you bring home less than $2,000 a month, there is not American Dream…you don’t get a bite at that because you’re just working your ass off all the time.  Student loans, insurance…I mean at less than 2,000 a month a single person is pretty well screwed here.

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Let’s try a novel approach to news for a change, shall we?  Let’s pretend none of it is real.  Or, at least not so real as it’s made out to be.

So, this doctor walks into the hospital room, looks you in the eye and announces this:

“Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.  However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.  Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated. “

You look up from your hospital bed astounded by the audacity of your attending financial doctor.

“Doc, I have been pistol whipped by bankers, my last three jobs have been jacked to India, and the administration is throwing open the borders so even more poor people can come here and under-bid me! 

My house has been repo’ed, but I own six cars because that how we were going to save ‘Merica, right?  And you have the boobdacity to tell me what about patience?”

For a brief moment, your doctor weighs a deeper answer.  But there is no choice.

Unlike medicine (“First, do no harm…”) there is no corresponding hold harmless in Economics.  So again the doctor repeats, like you’re a complete, blithering moron:

Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. 

Since there are no real weapons for inmates of the Monetary Institute, you try a different tack:

“Wait Doc!  Hear me out:  When you came by yesterday, you told me “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability “  But don’t you see Doc, that open borders are at odds with maximum employment for those already freaking HERE?”

The doctor eyes you with contempt.  The insult of it all…having a patient of all people, telling her, the doctor that economic largess is supposed to stop at the border… She turns to leave.

“I’ll check back with you…let me see…March 18th, then…  Remember, those people are just seeking asylum…and you’re just lucky enough to be already in one…”

No sooner had the door closed than it’d thrust open again and a huge orderly, the guy was 6’6” and 300 pounds of rippling muscle, advances toward your best.  Noticing leather restraints you try to move.  He’s carrying a large needle.

“I have money.  I have an IRA… I have my kids school fund.  See?  Says right here in the NY Times (nodding toward a table) that the President had withdrawn plans to tax the 529 school savings plans…so I have money….oh God….not again….”

A burning sensation in the veins of your right arm begins for the umpteenth time.  And the last thing you hear drifting out of consciousness is something garbled…something like

”… Executive Order or Hillary will do it when we put her in…”

Eyes Wide Shut

Suddenly, you’re conscious again.  Over on the wall, a television seems to be on a money channel.

“…after dropping nearly 200 points Wednesday following Dr. Yellen’s Fed Statement, looks like the market will score some solid gains today with Dow futures up a solid 40 points…”

“You idiots…the Dow lost almost five times that yesterday!”  The television seems not to notice.

It’s no use.  Big smiles and talk of recovery pepper the rapid-fire market hype.

There’s a quick knock at the door.  A cleaning lady comes in.

“Morning, sah.”

“Good morning, Mary…any news on reality…that stuff outside this damn place?”

“Uh huh.  Germany is now in deflation, but the headlines are careful to keep the word “inflation” in the story so’s mos people won’t catch on…”

“Any other real news you can tell me?  My doctor…she keeps me locked up and tells me to be patient and wait till her next visit which won’t be for two months….

“Oh, sure.  The 12-month M1 increase is settling out at 9.5% for 2014…and since prices have gone up a bout 1.4%, us cleaners are thinking deflation here is running about 8.1% now…but I’m ain’t sayin that outside this room because you’re a crazy person and I can say anything I want to say  to you.”

“What about the Baltic Dry Index….it was down to 666 yesterday and it always leads the market by 90-day, or more…what’s it doing?

“Well it’s down another 34 points…down to 632 and those are levels we haven’t seen since the 2009 bottom.  But don’t be telling anyone else, dis stuff cuz it’d rile up dah whole wing…I best be going… I’ll see if I can get you dah new GDP numbers tomorrow morning when I come by…”

You vow silence fearing another visit from the big orderly with the needle.

And in Other News

Somewhere, in another room a radio has been flipped on.  Hard to make out all of it, but you catch bits here and there.

“…Asia where the MH370 crash has been declared an accident….”

“…The CEO of McDonalds is stepping aside….”

“…and in our editorial this morning, we’ll be asking why is the Fort Hood shooter still alive?  That and more just ahead…”

Suddenly, the door bursts open and the big orderly is back.

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