With some of the big issues out of the way, the rest of 2022’s drivers can be lined up and then some ideas tabled. As always, UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics are not about “making the most” but instead about “losing the least” as complexity hits the wall. This morning, we eye things like communications, transportation, and … Read More
Another Model appears! No, you perv, not the sort with staples in her midriff. No, this is the kind that says things like “=’D-Data’!B808” and whispers sweet inferences like “=(AVERAGE(B723:B808))-B808” to our never-ending delight. This’ll take a minute to explain, so slurp-along and follow. This is possibly useful with the Fed meeting today and announcement … Read More
Yes, in a sense, it’s a quiet one this morning. Fine time to practice short column writing. But tomorrow will be bigger. Be patient. That’s because that’s when the Federal Reserve will be holding it’s FOMC meeting and Wednesday we will get a sense of how much taper to expect and how quickly. There’s other … Read More
This being Rum Sunday and all, I’ve done a couple of reports recently on the use of drones in a prepping and survival situation. In these, I have extoled the virtues of drones, even the cheapie $99 sort that I learned to fly on: an internet “deal” which worked out well. With a drone, a … Read More
Simplified communication reflects a tribe of simpletons is our origin point this morning. Because – importantly – big thoughts with important nuances may not be easily abbreviated. The urge to abbreviate is driven by multiple factors, too: time, laziness, and “normed down convention.” Thing is, the “idea simplification business” carries many hidden risks. Not the … Read More
Once again – I do this every month, or so – I am promising shorter columns because there is so much to do around here. To the top of the inbox, post haste! Inflation Data As we explained previously, when the economy is skittering along the effective lower bound (of interest rates) it’s not hard … Read More
There are seldom days when the Collisions of Complexity becomes clearer. Because we find ourselves, at click-time, staring into the abyss of the bad movie Global War trailer as early as this weekend. Important to understand (Big Picture stuff here) how contradictions can be useful in several ways, during times like these. Three examples: In oratory … Read More
A focus on the Environment today following our outlooks for the basics of food, water, and shelter. These were in the first part of our Annual Forecast series. Our topic didn’t rate its own column in previous years. But with energy, population, pandemic/plandemics about, more climate craziness, well there are limits approaching quickly. The differences … Read More
We have some new data to go over: International Trade and Productivity in a sec, but before we launch, let’s consider some things: Russia is still moving arms into position opposite Ukraine. China is expanding into the Atlantic, may have container missiles, and Taiwan is as good as gone, as we see it. Then we … Read More
Honestly, very little has changed in the past 24-hours since our last Big Picture of coming events. Russia and the West are pouring war materiel into Eastern Europe. China is still whipping up anti-American sentiment. Markets are getting worried at a deep core level. And above all, 2022-2024 is shaping up as a period when … Read More
This is long. This is real. This is important. Bear with me. My first real “news report” was done back in 1969. Over half a century ago. Sure, there have been gaps in the reporting (for serious management jobs and degrees), the love of “knowing news first” but doing it right never leaves. Which is why … Read More
We take a pause to consider human predictability and that of markets. It occurred to me this week that we might be able to look at human behavior in an Elliott-like manner, so this morning we put on the psychological beanie and head for the couch. With the requisite golden scarab. First, though, the usual … Read More
Surely, there are not more relevant and useful things sprouting from the Digital Trean of Knowledge, are there? Jobs: Up (But be skeptical!) Let’s see how the Bureau of Labor Statistics pretends the economy is doing: “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to … Read More