Are Commodities Telling Us the Future?

Ahead of this morning’s Housing report (which we will post about 8:15 Central time) I found myself pondering the lack of useful headlines and wondering more about Future.

Not that headlines aren’t revealing a few things:

Still, we are hardly surprised.  This transition period of the ENSO has resulted in last winter’s hard/heavy snows in Texas (a once in a century event, we’re hoping).  And now comes another “one in a century” – or more – at the other end of the thermometer.

Extremism if becoming the new norm in all quarters of life, seems like.

Politics Remains Useless

In earlier eras, it was thought that politicians “had their pulse on the public  mood” but not so much, anymore.  Instead, what we see is continual in-fighting (As Biden reassures moderates on infrastructure, progressives worry ( and when the Supreme Court punts, for now, on St. Louis police use-of-force case ( looks to us like all three branches of government are either adrift or fomenting rebellion.

The road to 2024 will be a mess, too.  Especially since Kamala Harris does nothing  to stem the inflows as Trump, GOP return to border to rev up base.  Don’t look now, but this sure looks like familiar territory.

Economic Reality is Hidden

Elaine was shocked when I mentioned at breakfast Monday that5 we are still 5.2 million workers shy of U.S. working people with jobs compared with pre-pandemic 2019.

Couple this with America’s continuing slide into a fast-food, fewer choices lifestyle – and simplified grocery stores reducing stock and item counts to free up “money” for other uses –  one sees little increase in general lifestyle.

Curiously, “lifestyle” has come to be defined as much by software as physical goods.  The latest and greatest game code, the finest of operating systems.  We’re keeping an eye on the movement towards a free Windows 11 update.

Question lingers, though:  Would an update to Super Mario Brothers Odyssey count as an “improvement in Lifestyle?”   Or is CoD or would a GTA-6 improve your quality of life?

Messages in Game code?  We wonder:  Plague, Inc. was released in 2012.  And as we got closer to “actual” out came Pandemic for Nintendo (Switch) in 2019.  We already halfway knew the “message was in the movie” but seems to be in Simpson’s episodes and video games now, as well.

One has to wonder (as we ponder how exactly does future arise) whether we could all skip business schools and simply do a “title scan” play some videos, and watch episodes to get as good a handle on future as elected (idiots) or futurizers.

Commodities Spell Future

Our take on the Future is more computationally based.  Stock prices, however, have been suffering a massive decline in functionality due to runaway monetary inflation.

On the other hand, commodities remain interesting because they are internally conflicted.  Which spells out alternative futures battling around their “awareness points” which is where the Observer (in a quantum sense) “p0ps” Schroedinger’s Cat one way, or the other.

1. Financial Commodities

Theory says that if the Fed is making up money like crazy, interest rates should rise.  That’s because with more money in circulation, more goods will be consumed and therefore more credit use and more demand for money which drives rates.

Thing is, if you look at the 10-year Note, the rates haven’t come anywhere near last summer’s spike to 1.75%.  The 10-year closed Monday at 1.478 percent.  Inflation isn’t showing up at the bankster level.

Neither does it show with Gold or Silver.  Gold was languishing in the $1,768 range early.  Silver was struggling to hold $26.00.

Nope, doesn’t seem to be any runaway inflation indicated in these, yet, either.  Copper was down to the $4.21 range which hints that no major wars (shell casings, right) are coming soon.

Copper could also be hinting that home building will remain muted.  That’s an idea with possible merit, since lumber has just crashed from $1,750 down to a mere $800.  More than halving.  Doesn’t mean OSB prices will break – homebuilders are over a barrel for sheet goods – but the 2 by 4 and 2 by 6 market for small home projects is definitely beginning to improve with cheaper prices.

We’ll get more insight into Housing when the new data comes in a few minutes, but already two major news stories underscore our wisdom of making 40 inches a year of rainfall a requirement for anywhere to live.

If you’re new around here, we wrote extensively about how to our way of thinking, living in a climate with adequate rain to grow some basic crops would – over time – emerge as a new type of tangible wealth.

Commodities Don’t Show

…longer-term population migrations that could arise from massive drought that begins to mimic the Dust Bowl era of the Great Depression…

I’ll try to remember to update you on this Friday.

For this morning, though, just look at the extreme drought areas and ask yourself if those stories about Lake Mead are real (they are!) then how can places in the West continue enjoying a property bubble?  (Hint: stupid people?)

We’ll look for that data in the Housing report.  But, in the meantime, we can’t get excited about living in areas any darker than light yellow on this map.  Eventually, statistics matter even if it takes a while.

Time to flee Oakland, too since weather and radical lefties is a bad combo:  Oakland Diverts $17 Million From Police Budget.  Yep, that’s solve all their drug homeless problems, uh-huh, you-betcha.  Bet they all get registered to vote, though, lol.

Speaking of lefties, see where Ilhan Omar says every illegal immigrant in US should have ‘pathway to citizenship’?  So here’s a sitting member of Congress wanting do-overs for criminal illegal aliens?  Mental acuity has left the Hill.

More Sheep Droppings

Cross-tabbing and correlating data is a lot of work.  But no worries since most “average” people are more worried about less important things than living a strategic life, as my friend Gaye puts it. Instead, how about we get worked up over…

Happy Talk:  To repeat: there are 5.2 million fewer people working now than in 2019.  Yet here’s the wrong-headed cheerleading as CNN ignores the 2-year data to preach “Signs the 2020 recession may already be over.”  No point counting the  number of people actually working, is there?  Sheep love happy-talk.  They also love to be fixated which brings us to…

Monetization of Trump Hate will never go out of style, will it?  We had to ask after reading Time’s Post-White House Donald Trump Continues to Destroy Norms.

Quarreling with Randall Quarels, in the NY Times A top Fed official says digital currency may be the money equivalent of parachute pants. – The New York Times.”  If you have yours on today, Bitcoin is hovering around $35,577.

The Lies about Wuhan continue to quietly unravel as our Day 1 bioweapon supposition keeps solidifying: Wuhan Lab’s Last–And Only–Foreign Scientist Speaks Out on Covid Origins Debate.

Health Note

One of the items in my new book being serialized on the Peoplenomics subscription site, was to explain that there’s a lot more than blood sugar that goes into maintaining mental acuity.  Specifically, I mentioned Elaine can get “spacey” even when she has had fruit juice in morning.  So not sugars.

What we noticed was that with some easily absorbed fats (or a protein energy drink or an Ensure) was the acuity popped right back.

Wouldn’t you know?  Only a few weeks after writing that, here comes fresh science on this “serum lipid levels” and  the acuity track we’ve been on.  As Science Daily reports Saturated fatty acid levels increase when making memories.

Which is why, in the Ure family, if you want to do well on a test, steak and eggs is the answer.  (Hardly matters what the question is!)

Might also want to glance at Serotonin levels influence patterns of repetition priming – PubMed (

On that, off to a high lipid breakfast (feed the brain) and back for the Housing report at the top of the hour…

Write when you get rich,

16 thoughts on “Are Commodities Telling Us the Future?”

  1. Morning George, News from the deep deep south. Its hot and wet and you know what they say about that. Some good news a year and a half after getting some rods and screws in my back I am about a month away from being off the heavy duty pain patch. You don’t realize how that stuff affects you till you start reducing it from the systems. The brain fog is lifting and I may avoid having to jump into the volcano. Now on to the big news of the day. A young man who didn’t understand the “you can’t do that” bunch is doing something you may be interested in.

    Meet the Man Building an Anti-Gravity Device, and the Alien God That Inspired Him
    The Alien god part is kind of off the rails but the thought of the detector has a chance.
    I rained four different times yesterday with less than 10% chance of rain. Makes the green weeds grow at least an inch per day. Water sun repeat. Hope I can get to the chicken coop without a machete. With the extra wet bringing out the roaches in droves who have been bug bombed, snakes, one got inside, several outside, Dogs found out how to play toss with the limp rope. Enjoy the swelter.

    • “Anti gravity”.

      I continue to notice the key piece is always omitted from the claim. I posted the link to the Russian who has a claim of a working model and schematics. Thing is, I guess, nobody can translate the Russian word, written or spoken!

      You ever notice that?

      A Business Plan

      Perhaps marginally smart people create those videos for clicks then giggle as their direct deposits roll in?

      Here’s a concept for a video short.

      Why do they call them curtain “rods” like lightening “rods”…. “Rods”….

      Ancients, from the Caucasus region would dip their rat pelts into special glow fluid made from certain crushed rock. The ancients said the rock was brought to Earth from the Moon in chariots by the Gods who fled during the cataclysms.

      The rat pelts are to be hung on specially tuned “rods” coated with animal fat and other elements. Once hung correctly the pelts start to glow and will illuminate an entire room. And that’s how people had light pre-Edison and as the new Edison system came online.

      Once you have a bunch of shorts combine them for even more views.

    • Many thanks for the link! I found the science mostly impenetrable but the theory about Jehovah being an alien was at least as probable at the Creator of the Universe bothering with a small tribe in the Middle East.

  2. Hay Gmex,

    Have you seen CRSP and NTLA lately?

    Been long CRSP for a while – just picked up NTLA after the moonshot opening yesterday.
    The moonshot was initiated by article over the weekend in Barrons… “In Vivo (inside Human container) gene editing and one time CURES are possible”.
    It works – spectacularly! No side effects, no drugs/chemicals, just U healing Ureself – simple, as it should be.
    Is the the great Human Genetic Undoing (reversing the reptilian/pleadian down gene manipulation)that greatly reduces Human lifespans to a mere 100 yrs finally arrived ?

    We can never forget – Ma/U the SOUL/BA is Immortal and Indestructible .

    now if I can just figure out to work this energetic icosahedron cyrstal..
    – 2 counter rotating fields of light – with a central one, 3rd, stationary.
    ..merkaba ..3 four sided pyrimids… n

    Mechanically speaking – inversion of the gyratory plane of the device – to obtain anti-gravitation.
    described in Samaranga Sutradhara(sanskrit) -manufacture and use vimana..mercury & crystals, with description of solution for feeding the crystals(magnetite, mercury,mica, acid). Exactly like the 1 person spaceships depicted in Mayan artwork.
    Wanna go inside the 100% artificial star – our satellite..the Moon ? Who-What-How ya gonna call and get permission ? hahahahahaha 2021- yeah lets send another probe..duh-ooooh.

  3. Don’t get too worked up about the drought George. It’s a cycle. For two straight years ending two years ago, we had too much rain. They had trouble capturing it all and had to build emergency reservoirs. The only difference this time around are the temperature’s. We have had more 100+ degree days already and it’s not even two weeks into summer than we have had in an entire season. Nights are warmer too.

  4. “Monetization of Trump Hate will never go out of style, will it? We had to ask after reading Time’s Post-White House Donald Trump Continues to Destroy Norms.”

    It can’t. CNN’s viewership is down 49%; MSNBC’s, 43% since Creepy Joe took office.

    You can safely bet money that once “Mr. Trump goes to McAllen” starts playing at a news channel near you, CNN and MSNBC will be airing the hell out of it — not videos of Trump, mind you — the vids will be of their canned faces (‘cuz nobody’s tired of seeing Wolf Blitzer’s tired face) laying on supposition as news, to attempt to recover the ratings they no longer have…

    • Have you, or anyone else, ever considered replacing politics all together in favor of ‘plain old business decisions,’ thus stop pretending that politicians have the interests of regular voters @heart.

      • 1) Won’t work. Business is politics of a different flavor, and engenders its own set of rules.

        2) I still harbor a streak of idealism which makes me hope there’s a National politician this side of Jesus Christ who will serve in a completely magnanimous and selfless manner. I have known a few who came close, but all were local, and all served a term or two, and then got out of (and completely away from) politics.

  5. wouldn’t touch ensure with a 10 foot pole.

    Water, Corn Maltodextrin, Sugar, Milk Protein Concentrate, Blend of Vegetable Oils (Canola, Corn), Soy Protein Isolate, Cocoa Powder (Processed with Alkali). Less than 0.5% of: Vitamins & Minerals (Potassium Citrate, Magnesium Phosphate, Calcium Carbonate, Sodium Citrate, Calcium Phosphate, Choline Chloride, Ascorbic Acid, Ferrous Sulfate, Potassium Chloride, dl-Alpha-Tocopheryl Acetate, Zinc Sulfate, Niacinamide, Calcium Pantothenate, Manganese Sulfate, Pyridoxine Hydrochloride, Thiamine Hydrochloride, Copper Sulfate, Riboflavin, Vitamin A Palmitate, Folic Acid, Chromium Chloride, Potassium Iodide, Sodium Selenate, Sodium Molybdate, Phylloquinone, Biotin, Vitamin D3, Vitamin B12), Nonfat Milk, Cellulose Gel, Natural & Artificial Flavor, Salt, Cellulose Gum, Soy Lecithin, Monoglycerides, Carrageenan, Turmeric Color, Acesulfame Potassium, Sucralose, and Red 3.

    • 2 hrs. after eating maltodextrin I pass out like some drunk and sleep from 2 hrs to the worst reaction was 20 hrs. Also allergic (?) to other fake sugars made from corn. The big problem is they are adding it to all kinds of foods. Irritating because like the pancake mix I have liked for years now has it added plus added to the cottage cheese.

      Another thing I have noticed is how much salt is being added to items. The whole day’s allotment in one item. Yikes! Also, I have labels from 3 cans of tuna (same brand with water). Tuna is not with water, it is now with veggie broth. One can says 550 mg, another 230, and the third 180. Only difference I can see on the label is the 550 is from Philippines and the other two are from Thailand.

  6. The Borg cometh.

    Amazon is using algorithms with little human intervention to fire Flex workers

    Retailer lets bots manage many HR decisions for its Flex delivery program.

    “Flex hirings, performance reports, and firings are all handled by software, with minimal intervention by humans. Drivers sign up and upload required documents via a smartphone app, through which they also sign up for shifts, coordinate deliveries, and report problems. It’s also how drivers monitor their ratings, which fall into four broad buckets—Fantastic, Great, Fair, or At Risk. Flex drivers are assessed on a range of variables, including on-time performance, details like whether the package is sufficiently hidden from the street, and a driver’s ability to fulfill customer requests.”

    “Neddra Lira, a former driver interviewed by Bloomberg, said her ratings tanked after she had to return packages to the warehouse when she found a nail in her tire. She managed to raise her rating to “great” over the next several weeks only to have her account terminated for violating terms of service. She appealed the termination, but Amazon didn’t budge. ”

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