Housing Data – and the “Hot Cities” Mystery

Just out from Case-Shiller, S&P/CoreLogic – fresh housing data:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census
divisions, reported a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in the previous month. The 10-City
Composite annual increase came in at 14.4%, up from 12.9% in the previous month. The 20-City
Composite posted a 14.9% year-over-year gain, up from 13.4% in the previous month.
Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in April.
Phoenix led the way with a 22.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Diego with a 21.6%
increase and Seattle with a 20.2% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year
ending April 2021 versus the year ending March 2021.

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 2.1% month-over-month increase, while
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively in April.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.6%, and
the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4% and 1.6% respectively. In April, all
20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
“Housing prices accelerated their surge in April 2021,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and
Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index marked its
eleventh consecutive month of accelerating prices with a 14.6% gain from year-ago levels, up from
13.3% in March. This acceleration is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 14.4% and
14.9%, respectively). The market’s strength is broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more
in the 12 months ended in April than they had gained in the 12 months ended in March.

Nationally, sales prices look like this:

Wanted to follow up on something from the column earlier today:  We’re having a hard time wrapping our heads around the obviously conflicted data in cities like Las Vegas.

Because while stories like Lake Mead is dropping. Time to think about the worst-case scenario? (azcentral.com) are showing up, at the same time, Las Vegas continues to be a hot property market!

Las Vegas with an index value of 225.33 was up 2.5% in the most recent reporting window and over the past year is up 12.5%. 

We have similar concerns with Phoenix where for now, the Salt River Project and aquifers are working, but again, what about worst case?  How would like in Phoenix be if the pool couldn’t be topped-off?  Not now, of course.  Be we try to live 10-years ahead of the pack.

Definitely things to ponder.  Sure. we can work our way through a lot of issues with high tech tools, but that requires capital and someone to step up to pay big bills over time.

Maybe it’s because I’m 72, but even at half that age, better watered and more livable climate should sure seem to make sense.

If the climate does shift – which it does from time to time – why would anyone in their right mind step into the yoke of debt in arid towns?

Write when you get rich,


25 thoughts on “Housing Data – and the “Hot Cities” Mystery”

  1. put it in context of the USD and yellowdog and presto you got instant brainwashing and storytelling dead ahead . looks like it saved the money temple though .

    • I remember you being bullish on the USD, and bearish on ‘yellowdog’ for quite a while. In 1 or 2 sentences why do you think so? Thanks

      • to choices . 2 things come to mind . first money always finds the best home . currently buried or shorts on market . second . the USD runs the world . always has always will . keep it simple .. and george !! thought of something !! this site like the old days of the bar and grill .. congrats george as always and respect for the info and exchange of ideas. as everLD

  2. It’s never made much sense to me that people would live or move to a dry climate like the desert southwest and then complain about the temps and/or drought conditions.

    Those areas will only support a certain amount of humans. Eventually, you reach the point where the consumption of available water exceeds the supply. When you have periodic severe droughts that can last decades…well, you get the point.

    Them, instead of just looking at the numbers, they blame it on something like climate change without realizing that not every thing is about us.

    • Many times the people in the development across the North fence line have posted on FB “No water again today”. We’re lucky to still have one well working on the North end of the ranch and will probably have to have another hole drilled close to the other to get a well going in that area again. It’ll be a bummer to drill a dry hole because SOME PEOPLE need a friggin’ swimming pool out in the desert.

    • I live in 92239, the Mohave – hot as hell for 3-4 months, and then really nice. I am on golf course and lake so not too bad! 45 miles to town at 85 mph. Bought an old cop car for respect on the Highway of Death (US10).

      • Johnathan, I was at Edwards AFB from 85-90. Edwards is in the heart of the Mojave Desert (spelled with a ‘j’ unlike with an ‘h’ over by Palm Springs). Most of the Antelope Valley gets water from an aquifer running out of the nearby Sierra Nevada range. I dug up this old article from the LA times discussing dramatic subsidence (up to 3’) in the Rogers Dry Lake bed, where the X-15 and space shuttle landed, due to draining of the aquifer by the booming Palmdale and Lancaster housing projects.


        I’m assuming the subsidence around Rogers Dry Lake bed hasn’t gotten any better in the past 30 years, what with LA overflowing into the valley area. Glad you are fairing better over your way.

  3. As I hear it Black Rock is buying up single family homes across the nation, I assume to rent out, like Bill Gates has bought up farm land.

  4. Funny. You should mention Vegas. I was supposed to go there last weekend for my Keytones buisness. Was going to take the Bunny with me. She wants to build a bridge and try again. Ran into her at the Good will. She just tackled me. I thought about it and my magical maginifying mind saw that there was great possibility of her trying to talk me into getting married there. So I stayed home. Shes mad at me. She will get over it. I think Dali Lama said it best when he said “Fck btches! Make money!” So Im trying to follow the way. Which doesn’t include much lookin in the rear view mirror. Already been there and done that. I’m not going that direction. Hmmmmm. Maybe it was that other wise dude. *shrugs. Like Jim Morrison said. “Keype your Ayes upon the road and your hands upon the wheel.”

    I got a sea of ex’s popping up. Ran into another at the gas station the other day. As soon I find a nice peach. They all come out of the wood works and want to hang out. I don’t have time for that shit. Im busy being the 800 lb Gorilla doing Marketing. Which is Hella fun dude. Sooo fun. I was born for this shit. Hahaha. Hustling!

    And I ain’t hitchin my wagon with anyone or anything that is going the other direction or about as useful as a anchor. No matter how pretty it is. I’m drivin, focused and taking action in the direction I want to go. If it ain’t going in the same direction and add nitros to fuel me? I don’t have time for it.

    Shaved my beard off now I look like Mr Incredible the cartoon figure or Shrek. Depending upon the lighting.

    I spose George, we are right on schedule. You wanna hear some funny shit. This is my life. I swear to God I live on a different plane of existence and THE DUDE is full of suprisess.

    So my new peach was in the hospital had to have surgery for a kidney stone. God she sure is pretty. Super good woman. So I came to see her after visiting hours. They have no idea how I got in there. So I got asked to leave. I walked right past security, waved and said these aren’t the droids your looking for. The security guy laughed and I walked right past him. Haaha. I mean nobody was aloud up to see her because of Covid restrictions. I got asked to leave. So I went moved my car to the front of the Bellevue hospital. Walked back in and said I was her husband and I need to drop some toiletries. They let me back in and I stayed half the night. The next day. I got her a big boquet of roses and brought it to her. Apparently her actual husband had a hard time getting in. I get in the elevator with this fella. We ride up to her floor. He actually held the door for me. I walk right in and she screams all excited that I brought her flowers. Then the dude in the elevator comes in after me and she hands him divorce papers. She hasn’t been with him in couple years. She just ready to be done. How funny that I’m riding up the elevator with him. THE DUDE, ya know. Hahaha. I don’t know many people who have this sorta stuff happen to them daily. It’s always like this for me. She got a ranch on 40 acres. Really nice girl. Good job and a daughter the same age as my youngest who had her first time behind the wheel of the car last week.

    Other than that. I been hanging out with two new friends. Big black muslem dude who is so serene and peaceful. Teaching me alot. And this Alchemy wizard dude. Super cool dude. Taught some super cool stuff too.

    Sorta miss the Tao master tho and the days of Cochella Valley.

    Housing market crash yet? Wait for it. It will. And Soon I suspect. A bee told me that. Bees tell ya lots of stuff. They know alot more than they let on about stuff. Been seeing alot of dopplegangers too. Saw a dude standing right outside WalMart and he looked exactly like Obama. Except he was asking for spare change. Wierd. I told him. You look just like Obama. He said yeah you got a dollar man. So I gave him a buck.

    I imagine this sorta stuff will continue as we get close to Big Pharma Karma and the Timeline switch. Havent really thought about it.

    Remember often times my life is a reflection of the grand scale. So you can make of it what ya wish. I do.

    I gotta get. Be back whenever bro.

    Cue: ~ The Jack ~


    I am truly Blessed and Highly Fortunate! It is my hope you are as well.

    • Welcome back Andy ;-); At least there is someone else ‘truly Blessed and Highly Fortunate!’ Good to read!!

  5. The 1973 sci-fi classic film Soylent Green was set in 2022 NYC. The movie is terminally dystopian, yet one could easily imagine Phoenix or Vegas substituting for the Big Apple today. No water – no food. No food – people starve. How to feed them cheaply? Recycle!

    Add to the plot that in regions like the desert SW, water could soon be worth more than oil or even precious metals. Barges loaded with polar ice might one day conceivably supply the drier parts of the U.S. with drinking water. Putin is not so crazy after all laying claim to large swaths of the Arctic and Antarctic.

    • When I saw the film ‘Soylent Green’ many years ago I thought that would be a real possibility to feed the masses ;-(. Realistically, what other ‘choices’ would we have had considering that scenario? At least the dying was pleasant, IMHO.

  6. George should have a poll where the sheep are going . 321 caddies or sheetco Buick’s!! Heaps of new salesman doing great deals on every wreck they got

  7. Ya know George and others. I spent 12 hours hustling in Mt Vernon Washington today. Sitting exactly bettween The Goodwill and The Dollar Tree, in blazing sun. I met a young lady I hadn’t ever seen. Knew her from Facebook. She came to get something from me. She had 2 little ones. She is just a tiny little thing at 5 foot, 100lbs. I’m sure I look massive next to here at 6’1, 245lbs solid muscle. After which, I had other things to do.

    Funny, being in Mt Vernon, between Goodwill and Dollar Tree. THE DUDE and HIS sense of Humor. After I packed up. I looked before me Goodwill on my left hand, Dollar Tree on my right. In a place with the same name as where our first president home is, writing this on a site run by a fella with the same name, in a State with the last name as our first president.

    Goodwill on my left hand, Dollar Tree on my right hand. I stood there and pondered it all in the blazing sun. Then I went into Goodwill, used the bathroom, washed my face with cold water. Cleaned my specticals. Then walked out toward my car and I noticed 3 helium balloons outside The Dollar store. one purple, one green, one gold. shaped like stars.

    So I went in the dollar tree, purchased 2 balloons, shaped like stars, one gold and one green in a town named after the first presidents home, in a state with his last name as I write this on a site with it’s owner having the same first name. And I gave each to one of her little ones. Bought a water and left The Dollar Tree.

    Then I stoped in the middle of the parking lot, turned and looked at Goodwill on my left and Dollar Tree on my right. Me in the middle. A homeless woman came up to me on my left, from the Good will side. I don’t know what she said. I was lost in a ponder of it all. I didn’t even look at her. I just pulled out my wallet, took out a $20 handed it to her. She kissed me on the cheek. Then went to the Dollar Tree. That little young lady came out. She waved and said. I owe you dinner. I tuned and smiled. Then both of her kids let go of those balloons and the stars returned to the sky. In a town named after the first presidents home, in a state baring his last name, with Good will on my right and The Dollar Tree on my right. As I write this on a site with it’s ownerr having the same first name. Then a little bumble bee landed on my shoulder. I smiled.

    Did it matter I only made 2 sales that day. Nope. Ya ether see this stuff, or ya don’t. This is my life. Every single day. I’m like a child in awe of all the wonder in creation. A Giant of a man and a little cog in the grand scheme of things. And that is why I ain’t around much on the net. I’m being romanced by creation.

    Ya see you can consume a hole in your soul worried about possible soul cubes on the moon. And evil Archons and the loosh farm. It’s your right to do so.

    Me, I will just be here savoring every fckin drop of all of it. It’s truly a marvelous experience to be here.

    Truly I say to you. I am Blessed and Highly Fortunate! It is my hope, that you are as well.

    Que: row row row your boat. Gently down the stream. You all know the lyrics.

    • Andy, please do return to writing, as you have demonstrated that you ‘live in the dude’ as well
      as ‘the dude lives in you.’ JMHO, of course.

    • Please Andy starting writing again because your message is important. The Dude has given you gifts that are unique and should be shared. What you say is interesting but also thought provoking.

  8. Trying to go agin ! Not looking good though . They went early now it’s 5.40 pm AEST . Struggling the facists

  9. I moved 2000 miles to a dry part of the country decades ago in an attempt to avoid the 40+ inches of rain(sometimes much more) elsewhere. Some of us just melt in the rain! Besides all that, rain is wet!

    This year it was mercifully dry for all of Spring, and much of June was blazing hot – almost to the triple digits! I never even had to think about mowing anything since there was nothng to mow.

    For better or worse, it suddenly got freezing cold(68F this morning)! It started raining on Sunday and has been pretty much heavy and non-stop since then. I’m not going outside for any reason until it stops and it’s likely to be deep mud for days. What I’m dreading is the instant growth of grass and other stuff once the sun comes back. It looks like I’ll actually have to mow again. The drought map really will have to be updated this week.

    At least I can catch up on inside work, and I’m quite sure that the roof doesn’t leak.

    • My last two visits to the Storm Prediction Center indicated NM was the only State in the Union with frost/freeze warnings for yesterday and today…

    • So that is where Oregon’s rain has gone. So hot over the weekend. Set a record of 116 In Portland on Monday. Unbearable and life threatening. 4th of July fireworks are now banned.

  10. I’m not sure why I have to explain this here.

    Investing is not rational.
    Real estate is super not rational.
    There is no evidence people are moving to these dry places.
    This is dummy money following rising arrows.

    This video explains how the Chinese built ghost cities because if they didn’t their real estate bubble would burst. This video explains the problem as one of 4 (age, housing, water, pride) that are pushing Chinese behavior. It’s silly to discuss China in any setting if you don’t know these basic facts. I hope smart money people like you appreciate that.

    Everyone with money buys houses/apartments like trading cards. Millions of empty properties.

    It’s quite possible speculation is driving the cost up in these places, only because they have real growth that is moderate. Investors won’t try this in a down market, right? But they could influence a rising market by jumping in.

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