News

Oilman2’s kids are a damn-sight better’n most.   What a lot of kids don’t realize is that parents really do hear what the kids say.

So here’s an insight into the mind of the today’s “low 20’s” in East Texas…language warning….but this is real:

I went to my Moms Friday and met my son and 2 friends at the farm, where they were clearing the fence line. After they decided to take a break, they walked back to the tractor shed where I was twiddling with the ignition switch on one of the tractors…

(overheard when they were behind shed)

“My Dad owned 3 different companies, and every time it was a greedy partner that sank them. Every time one greedy guy screwed up an ongoing, working company. My Dad even had my grandfather working for him, so it hurt us twice!”

“Hahaha dude. As soon as the word corporation gets tacked on, the bullshit starts.”

“Yea, but you can’t make the big bucks without getting big in business.”

“Well, whoever the dick was that decided bigger was better and more is better ought to get his ass kicked. Why the fuck does everything have to be fuckin huge to work?”

“Don’t know, but the real thing is all we got is time. We trade our time doing something for money. It’s always money, and it’s always more-more-more or you are classed a loser.”

“Our generation is all losers then bro – we got nothing and all our parents are both working their asses off. Look at us out here doing this, just hoping we can get a shot at even making a living.

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Yeah, after writing this morning’s Coping section (which I hope you’ll read) the market action today looks about as exciting as watching bread rise, paint dry, or transparency in government showing up.

There are some minor housing numbers due out at 10, the futures are about flat because while it might make big headlines about Israel attacking nine targets in Syria, that’s not presactly a big financial deal.

Nor is the arrival of John Kerry in Iraq likely to change the balance of power or underlying dynamics in play.

The larger problem, as I outlined a while back for Peoplenomics.com subscribers, is how the New [global] Caliphate is rolling out.  And key to the roll-out will be how the US responds to the air strike requests, which could be a joint action with Iran which is led by the Muslim clerics whose candor over their nuclear program is questionable.

But what’s really going on is that Saudi Arabian influence is growing by leaps and bounds in the region and that’s where the real news will be happening in background.  Last week the Saudis were saying that there’s a high risk of “civil war” in Iraq.  You do know, of course, that there’s such thing as civil in war – there’s always the third-party enablers.

As long as we’re Middle Easting, it’s worth mentioning (since I once told you that Al Jazeera English coverage was – in Muslim lands –  about akin to the BBC back in WW II) that AJ journalists have been sentenced to prison time for presenting “false news” reports.

What interesting (likely) is that the reports didn’t sit well with the military government of Egypt, which was strong anti-MuBro, and they made the reports illegal just before the journo;s were arrested by labeling the MuBros as a terrorist group.

What’s the old saying here?  “History is written by the winners…”  wasn’t it?

With markets flattish, a lack of economic data until tomorrow’s housing data (I’m betting down a bit) this Monday seems particularly mundane.  EU business activity ticked down in June. 

It’s only slightly comforting to know more bank failures are popping up, though it reinforces out economic perspectives:  Two on Friday:  Valley Bank of Florida had four branches and the Valley Bank up in Illinois had 13 branches.

If you want to call in well for work this morning, that’d be fine with me.  Let your bank balances be your guide…

Bye-Bye Warming, Buy Buy

How many times do I have to tell you that the majority of global warming is simply “made up?”

Of course there’s a reason why:  In case you skipped Report from Iron Mountain on the Accessibility and Desirability of Peace,  people don’t like government, and don’t need government for too much except basic fire, health, and police services, provided you have a moral group of humans that care for one another.

LACKING pretty much all of the above, however, we need Big Enemies for government to stomp down with control and keep we the people in line and what?  Paying our Taxes.  The more the better.

So the mass marketing to fear-you into paying a global carbon tax is on, and the blog Real Science by Steve Goddard has an amazing set of articles that point how it was really the first part of the last century (the 1930’s in particular, dust bowl, drought, and all that) that was unusually warm.  And part and parcel of that scientists (which they aren’t, but that’s the label they wear) decided to jigger the data so they wouldn’t have to deal with reality.  A tough mistress she is.

Apparently, I’m not the only one who can read.

The UK Telegraph gets our gold star for the week (gee, and it’s only Monday!) for their “The scandal of fiddled global warming data.”

And, in case you missed the article around here a couple of weeks back that the majority of Antarctic ice melt was caused by undersea volcanism.   See “Bad news for warmerists.”

But read it while you can.  As those Al Jazeera journalists in Egypt demonstrate, speaking things as you see them on the ground is not something that’s particular popular with the Ruling Class In Charge.  You’d think after the Copenhagen debacle, more people would be seeing it.  But hey, isn’t Suits on, or sumpthin?

More after this…is the Fourth almost here, already?

Plenty of War to Go Around, though…

Not making too many headlines in the US Mainstream, there is still scattered fighting going on along the border between Ukraine and Russia and…whatever that new territory is called.

In fact, it’s worrisome enough that the EU is now threatening additional sanctions against Russia if they don’t rein in their support for the pro-Russian militants.

By this winter, however, we can expect the rhetoric of the West to get dialed back a bit.  Winter means EU countries will be depending on Gazprom for heat and Russia is likely to play their gas lines like a fiddle.

Price Me to Tears

We had our data tools (like www.nostracodeus.com) point in the direction of prices this weekend and it doesn’t look good.

For one thing, the price of beef just seems to be going up, up, and away.  Not that it’s unexpected.  This sucker has been obvious for at least 8-years even to an idiot like me.

Peoplenomics subscribers can refer back to issue #246 *June 25, 2006 which said (in part) about the “governmentizing” of protein with the National Animal Identification Act (NAIS):

So NAIS would fit into the production/consumption tracking system of one-world-government, eh? I have to think about that a bit.

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About the least surprising thing in the world was Fed getting all dovish on rates yesterday.

No doubt, this was driven by the food price increases that are in the pipeline. See Related comment in this morning’s Coping section under “American Vegetables.”

So after putting on a decent 98 point rally in the Dow, and kicking the S&P up 15-points, the market really ought to take a breather and see if anyone with common sense is left.  But I doubt it.

Japan was up 1.6% overnight, alight Hong Kong was flat.  Europe is following through, though with the French market up 0.85% when I looked, so what happens today with the S&P in record country again, should prove interesting.  A couple of hints might come from leading indicators and natural gas inventories later on in the day.

For now, we’re on snooze control.  Long stocks, holding golden and silver’s almost back to $20.  Interestingly, Bitcoin is sitting at $606…and that one could pop either way.

Refinery Battle

The BBC coverage of that refinery battle in Iraq is worth checking out over here.  It’s likely to be the first real test of how the ISIS forces are doing in real pitched combat.  It’s one thing to shoot training films, but another to actually get eye to eye in numbers in something other than easy pickins.

Still, it’s all part of the rollout of the New [global] Caliphate, as we mapped for Peoplenomics.com subscribers Wednesday.  When you  put conflicts on a map and update it every few days, you can see where the New Caliphates borders are being carved out.

Expansion will then follow.

The British are worries about an attack on their homeland.  But seems the AQ types are trying to keep the fight localized to the M.E. as they empire-build.

Meantime, president Obama is almost certain to act without Congressional approval.  I’m not sure how the history books would write this:

The Bush war in Iraq was fought without a formal declaration of war, ended without a declaration of peace, restarted without a declaration of war and then….

A Washington Coverup?

Well, of course we’re not surprised to hear that the IRS hard drive with controversial emails having to do with purported orders from higher-ups to home in on conservative groups experienced a crash.

The problem is, now that those emails are likely gone, forever, will the recipients of the emails ever find their copies?

Well, none of this seems likely to end in a conclusive manner to the satisfaction of the other side, so it will fall into “the conspiracy gap.”  That’s the holding file for stories like UFOs, antigravity, Tesla’s lab, and now:  IRS emails.  Voting machines are in there, too.

Coverup to Come

If people on Capitol Hill hadn’t really earned my label “Fools on the Hill” someone might be paying serious attention to the NY Post’s John Crudele who this week is outlining what has the peculiar odor of stink that we frequently notice when gub’mint statistics come out.

It’s getting to be where Mark Twain’s fine observation about spastistcs  (sic) can honestly be misquoted as “Lies, damn lies, and government.”  But I stand, hand over heart, as I say that, of course.  It’s the kind of thing we used to do, back in the day before we became a state of Mexico.

More after this…

(Looks kind of interesting, doesn’t it?)

Quake Notes

6.4 in Vanuatu this morning.  More important, is a quake trend back in the ascending mode now.

5.7 just now off Chile, but still not the “grim rim” yet.

Immigrates:  Who Says What Dept.

Corpnews mogul Rupert Murdoch says immigration reform can’t wait.

Interesting, but I’m not aware of him owning property in Texas or Arizona, however.

Rupe Murdoch as you may know was born an Aussie who was subsequently naturalized to US citizenship in 1985, so we note that he had skin in the game at one point.

In fact, studying his position, I’m moved to changing my opinion on immigration, thanks to learning this: I think we should throw open the doors of the USA to anyone with a net worth of half a billion, or more, or owns at least three major newspapers. 

Now, isn’t THAT truly the New ‘Merican way?

Meantime Mexico is trying to explain dozens of bodies in a mass grave.  Zetas and rivals.  And we still can’t legalize weed and close the borders? GMAFB.

We don’t need “Common Core” in ‘Merica, so much as we need Common Sense.

Dubai Flies

Now busier than Heathrow as the world’s busiest global hub airport.

Peak Oil – Reader’s Writes

From DJ:

Hi George,

Forgetting even the Middle East woes for a second, would you ask Oilman2 what the localized problems with Disposal of FRACKING WASTEWATER could be? The Southeast US is screwed: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/03/05/184829/fracking-waste-could-go-to-nc.html .

This article states that even garbage dumps don’t want it. So, we’re possibly gonna be Fracked Up & Fuku’d up: there are many N P P’s in the SouthEast – several of which are already constantly on the N R C’s Watch List, & there’s an earthquake fault line off the coast. Quakes can have bad consequences here. How much more pollution can the planet & it’s inhabitants take??!! I just don’t understand why people-in-charge can’t grasp the perils of fracking, and also of operating aging N P P’s.

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[Reader Note: Yes, the ad at the top of this column on  UrbanSurvival.com is gone.  Turned people off, so it goes away.  Yes, I do listen.  Now your part of the deal is to tell your friends it’s safe to come back now…]

If you happen to be up in the Toronto, Canada region, you might want to put a swing through the Bata Shoe Museum on your list of sightseeing adventures.

Not for the shoes alone, though that’s kinda kitchy.  No, I’m thinking more about their new display of “Fashion Victims:  The Pleasures and Perils of Dress in the 19th Century.”

It’s not like you’ll need to call in sick tomorrow so you can take it in right now:  The display will be open through next year (June 2016).  But it’s a reminder that we live in a world that has gone from “mad as a hatter” due to the mercury used in shrinking headbands and the like, to the laughingly labeled “modern era” which sweat shops and labor camps make today’s fashions, including the electronica sort.

Mind candy to a sick or crazy like me:  It gets me to thinking in design pattern terms. “Fashion Kills” is a concept that has “scaled” nicely.  We’ve taken the concept from articles of clothing to political decision-making on all manner of issues, ranging from war to immigration and whatever else you want to lump under that other most dangerous fashion:

Political correctness.

To be sure, you can still find George Kotsiopoulos of ‘Fashion Police’ talking about this season’s “must have” looks.  But I wonder if he might not be a good consultant on the socioeconomic/political side of things, too.

After all, we know that fashion and the stock market do have an immodest relationship:  Huge market peaks are often accompanied by rising hemlines.  And with the market set to do a mega-burst blow-off high, I’m  waiting for the return of the mini-skirt.

Oh, wait…here it comes:

“Ferne McCann shows off her tanned legs in cream mini skirt….”  I’ll skip the snide remark about correlating anything “British” with fashion, only because I have a pile of long-term call options.

And here’s more bullish market sentiment to feast Ure eyes on:  “Sienna miller rocks a metallic detailed mini skirt…”

And even more?  “Fabulous at 50- why the mini skirt will live on forever!” headlines the Liverpool Echo.

This is my idea of “skirting profits.”

Renting Your Life: Data File Inputs

New Jersey has the dubious honor of having the highest Obamacare prices in the country.  Way to go go!

Just over the bridge, we see than Manhattan condo prices have fallen a bit since Q1 records were set.  Guess you might hold off for a while on tossing the offer in on the $50-million townhouse, huh?

But price manias are everywhere.  Housing prices are going up in Taipei at incredible rates, but while the story about what this is doing to one couple, reported over here puts a “human face” on the housing prices there, am I the only one with the brains God gave chickens?  Don’t people in Taipei remember who’s on the other side of the Straits and who has had eyes on their island since Mao’s time?

That would be like buying a border home in Arizona.  Might make sense sometime in the future, but not this week, thank you very much.

Oh, sugar prices have hit an 8-month high.  Sweet.

GameStyle

Good discussion over on Dr. Zorpix this morning (Wii-UJ)about the changes coming to Nintendo’s Zelda.

I’m stuck with our early Wii and Sports Resort, but with the controllers and balance board it still gets us off the coach once in a while.  I’ve often wondered why more senior care facilities don’t push virtual bowling and vid games, but maybe I’m just not exposed to the forward-thinkers of the elder-care community.

Living the last parts of first life, playing lots of Second Life, while getting queued up for third life (after) seems an interesting enough sleigh ride.  Especially with the right brownies and a smoke.  (wink-wink, nudge-budge).

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We know that the recovery is picking up steam.  And we know this how?

Because the amount of goods coming in through the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles has gone through the roof.  Between them, up about 8 percent over year-ago numbers.

What this means is that China is not really falling off the edge of the Economic Earth.  And it is just another reason I told Peoplenomics readers recently about a pretty interesting option play I’ve put of for next year:  I think we could have one hell of a blow-off top (as in semi-parabolic market rise) over the balance of this year, into next, and possibly as high as 4000+ in the S&P before the whole house of cards collapses.

To be sure, the size of the rally could be debated.  After all, the same week a year ago, the S&P closed 1,592.43.   So tacking on 8% on top of that might argue we could still collapse in a heap down to the 1,720-1,740 range. 

Still, if war is “good for economy” (and yes, it does stimulate things) then the decision to send Marines into Iraq ought to be just what Wall St. ordered.

But, of course, bigger international trade, the returning health of China, and the economic stimulus of war, are old school thinking and thus, out of vogue.  Instead, we have in the place of common sense substituted things like the consumer price index.

Which gets us to the first hardcore data point of the day

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, which was the largest since February 2013, was broad-based. The indexes for shelter, electricity, food, airline fares, and gasoline were among those that contributed.

The food index posted its largest increase since August 2011, with the index for food at home rising 0.7 percent. The increases in the electricity and gasoline indexes led to a 0.9 percent rise in the energy index. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in May, its largest increase since August 2011. Along with the indexes for shelter and airline fares, the medical care, apparel, and new vehicle indexes all increased in May.

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An interesting investment indicator to kick around this morning…The economic idea?  Reader Bill has it:

George,

A theory being batted around by myself and some armchair economist friends is that Soccer, a sport that has entrenched itself in most of the world, really gained foothold in 3rd World nations, and war torn continents.

In the United States, soccer fandom was historically limited to those who had played the sport growing up, and eventually blossomed into a trope of the hipster left (the folks who look down on anything American, but like the romance of the exoticism of soccer).

In recent years, in the United States, the MLS (Major League Soccer) has vaunted itself as one of the “major” sports leagues (allegedly shoulder to shoulder with MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL) with stadiums filled with fan bases (who have co-opted the traditions of fans in traditional soccer hotspots such as singing incessantly, and riling themselves into almost hooligan enthusiasm).

Some have asserted that there is a corollary between the devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the popularity of soccer. That as we attenuate, slowly and mercilessly into 3rd World status, soccer becomes a more pronounced national obsession.

I’s an interesting concept, but one that doesn’t really hold water when studied from the longwave economics view, at least insofar as the valuation of the US dollar.

When you plot the value of the dollar over time (from the setting up of the Federal Reserve and the Internal Revenue Service in 1912/1913, you notice that the majority of the US dollar decline happened once we got into the 1960s and 1970s.

If “soccer marker” theory were really to hold, we should have seen a major increase in soccer interest much earlier than we did.

So I’d offer a counterpoint:  Soccer may be a sport that is limited to the back-side of economic growth, so the observation may be valid, but from a longwave perspective we need to look deeper.

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