So far, there’s no sign of the “bake on 400F for two-months” ending down here. Which leaves us with lots of “chill time” after updating our 5-ton A/C unit – which I’ll explain in a special ShopTalk episode this morning.
But the Fried, eh? refers to the birds we watch migrating at this time of year.
E-6s Matter – Maybe
We are, by our own admission, just a bit paranoid about how the future will arrive. Anyone sane glancing at the passing headlines would (or should) be.
My consigliere this week was keeping an eye on America’s “use during nuke war” air assets. Including the E-6s, which…
“…in the later afternoon of the 25th (ESDT) all 4 of our E-6’s were airborne at the same time, something I have never seen (NONE held in reserve on the ground?”
Yeah…so let’s talk about Doomsday command and control for a second. People will occasionally confuse the E-6B’s with the E-4 Nightwatch planes. Two different animals. 707 vs. 747 platforms.
For those not briefed up on militaria: the E-6B Mercury is a U.S. Navy airborne command-post aircraft based on the Boeing 707 that serves as a survivable nuclear command-and-control platform. Its dual mission is TACAMO—relaying National Command Authority orders to ballistic-missile submarines via very-low-frequency trailing-wire antennas—and the Looking Glass role of launching land-based ICBMs through the Airborne Launch Control System if ground control is lost.
Now, if he had a memory glitch and it was E-4’s? Much bigger deal. E-4B Nightwatch (USAF, modified 747): 4 in service. At least one is kept on 24/7 alert as the National Airborne Operations Center for the President, Secretary of Defense, and Joint Chiefs. They are being replaced by E-4C SAOC jets (747-8 based); five airframes have been bought for conversion, with plans discussed for a larger fleet of about 6–8.
But now comes the fine point of my consigliere’s observation: This is the time of year when you will see lots of summer NatGuard movements and other large-scale operational readiness work going on. A well-informed source reminded us about this hot watch time:
“Russia usually conducts its annual strategic nuclear deterrence exercise, codenamed Grom, in October, so it’s a little early to be responding to that. They sometimes in the past (usually mid-to-late summer) have sent major portions of the Pacific Fleet towards Hawaii, which, depending on the flotilla configuration, might raise some alarms. But this is also the time of year they tend to move [edit] north and east to the tippy tip of Russia, not far from Alaska (basically just across the Bering Strait). Depending on what sort of additional systems are sent along with them, and if they are doing live fires against sea targets, also might raise alarm flags. “
We’re thinking – with all the Hawaiian (shit_) “weather” the Russians might shift play elsewhere on the board. And so, the E-6bs (of which we have 16 and 12 operationally ready for tasking) and the four E-4s … well it’s “You show me yours and I’ll show you mine” time.
Wonder Week Wednesday Windage
With lots of pieces moving on the geo-board, markets are taking their time tipping the hand today. With the CIA boss in Moscow this week, there’s reason to be somewhat paranoid about ops pending for this weekend, or even Labor Day. But we don’t think so. If a major war expansion was in the offing, we’d see bigger “pattern flares.”
On the other hand, we are tracking a new centroid of data gelling in late September. So, if you drop by this weekend, we have a “Sunday Special” that is long but very-much worth reading because it features output from our Over-the-Horizon Software project. The Executive Summary ought to be enough to make you think harder and deeper about the future. And the charts, too.
But in the close-in view?
- Early markets today are still skeptical – though WTI and Brent crude are still down a bit at press time.
- Monday and Tuesday markets will depend on news-flow factors.
- But Tuesday morning we start Jobs Week going into Labor Day weekend.
- ADP comes Wednesday. Challenger job cuts Thursday, and federal numbers before elevator jam up full of people fleeing for three days of pressure relief.
For now, things look meh.
- Europe was running “all green” so that may portend a higher close in the U.S.
- Japan was up 273 on the Nikkei overnight.
- And silver was back over $70 an ounce while BTC was holding under $80k – the rally was nice while it lasted.
When a reporter gets old enough, you begin looking at numbers like cases of hot flashes and sweats – on the way to never quite “getting well.”
News Compressor: ON
Consular math on Nepal: “47–63 missing Americans” became “~90 impacted.” Nepal Police now 389 dead on the Nepal side; China reported 3 in Tibet; missing still 1,400–1,500+. 3 rescued, no confirmed U.S. deaths in this window. Not “climate gets real” as a verified cause this morning — official accounts still describe a mud/rock collapse into a river.
Timber Fire, Big Sur: ~19,000–23,000 acres, ~21% contained; Highway 1 closed again for backburns; 660+ structures threatened. NIFC: 73 drone incursions near wildfires YTD. Someone needs to review how drone regs apply in TFRs, if you follow. Hawk Fire (Reno) progress after 30+ homes lost; evacuees cut from ~90k to ~63k earlier in the week.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote this morning (~10:00 ET) with July inflation still ~3.4% and markets begging for rate talk he has refused to give. CME FedWatch Tool pegs odds of a rate hike at 35.9 percent at press time. Watch it post-Warsh.
Iran–Oman still pitching a temporary Hormuz corridor + mine clearance; a senior Iranian source told Reuters a final accord is not done. IRGC claimed shares/revenues agreed; that is an official claim, not independent verification. USS Theodore Roosevelt reported headed to the Middle East.
Inside Pages
- CDC cyclospora/iceberg lettuce: 11,458 cases, 495 hospitalized, 2 dead, 20 states after adding GA/TN/TX. Recalled Taylor Farms dates have passed. Bleu cheese, please and a side of shots?
- Judge ruled Pentagon measures against Anthropic “illegal and baseless.” He didn’t rule on “political” so far as we know.
- Army plans $2B nuclear microreactors at 5 bases. No. This is not Lockheed Martin cold-fusion work. It is ordinary (if small) fission nuclear — uranium-fueled microreactors — under the Army’s Janus program with DIU. No, it’s not the “compact fusion” project Lockheed was working on. Aviation Week reported in 2023 that a Skunk Works executive confirmed the effort was halted sometime before 2021. Wikipedia’s current summary matches that: active roughly 2010–2019, then no updates and the division appears shut down.
- Mid-Atlantic/Northeast storms: NYC/NJ flash flooding Thursday; Lancaster PA flood warning into Friday.
- Extreme heat warnings still up across Inland Empire / SoCal valleys through Friday evening.
- Trump signed a U.S.-side rename of Lake Ontario to “Lake America.” Canada is not required to play along.
- NPR is worked up: administration proposal would let federal grants be killed “on a whim.”
- ICE officer released from a Texas jail despite a Minnesota extradition request.
- Tupac killing trial heading to closings (Keffe D).
- Peekachu, rescued beluga at Chicago aquarium, died. (Sounds fishy.)
Weekend News Outlook
- Warsh speech language vs. a September hike. Odds: 55% he stays foggy. Could matter after breakfast. (Nothing matters until I get food…)
- Another Northeast flood warning cluster appears. Fri–Sat. Odds: 30%.
- Oil $3+ move on a Hormuz or Warsh headline. Depending on news flows. Odds: 40%.
- Eyes open for left-field board-changing events.
Personally Actionable: Health
Best paper of the week (actionable): Yale’s Nature Medicine analysis of 111 DNA-methylation biomarkers across 51 human intervention studies. Press/summary out 21–26 Aug 2026. They tested diet, exercise, calorie restriction, fasting, metformin, semaglutide, rapamycin, HBOT, bariatric surgery, smoking cessation, and a pile of OTC supplements.
Takeaway they are pushing: diet + exercise consistently dropped epigenetic age. Metformin and semaglutide also moved clocks. OTC supplements mostly did not. They put the comparison table on TranslAGE.io.
Bookmark it! TranslAGE.io
That is the first decent “does this intervention even register on aging clocks?” scorecard, not another mouse-only story.
Also this week / just landing:
- GeroScience review, 22 Aug 2026 — “Integrating biological aging into clinical practice.” Framework for using clocks + clinical markers over time instead of one magic number. Useful if you already track labs; not a protocol.
- Nature Aging research briefings circulating now: exercise delaying ovarian aging in mice via adiponectin; trained older muscle keeping a younger multi-omic profile; urolithin A phase 1 — safe, more naive CD8 T cells, immune-metabolism remodel. The last one is early human, not a “buy this” result.
- Older but still the best practical dose paper in the current stack: eClinicalMedicine SPAN cohort — sleep + MVPA (moderate-vigorous physical activity) + diet together. Versus the worst tertile, the good band (~7.2–8.0 h sleep, >42 min/day MVPA, decent diet score) associated with ~9 extra years of both lifespan and healthspan.
- Smallest combo they modeled for ~1 extra year of life: +5 min sleep, +1.9 min MVPA, +5 diet-score points (half a veg serving or ~1.5 whole-grain servings). Observational, not a trial.
At the Ranch: ShopTalk Friday (A/C)
Son G2 gives me all kinds of grief when he visits the shop.
“Why do you have all this shit?”
True, the place is stocked better than some small hardware stores. But every once in a while, being “deep on parts” saves a bunch of time and, more importantly, money.
Thursday morning was one of those times.
Save $300 Before Breakfast
It wasn’t exactly rocketry figuring out the problem. Here were the symptoms:
- L1 and then L2 — legs one and two, if you aren’t an electrician — were sagging on A/C startup. High-speed lighting, meaning LED but not incandescent, would blink out for a flash.
- The compressor was making an odd, tone-like noise on startup, but the condenser fan sounded strong.
- And the monthly power bill had crept about $70 above where I expected it to be.
Simple, likely problem?
A failing start/run capacitor.
Potentially fixable in ten minutes. Which brings us right back to the chock-a-block shelves in the shop.
We had a couple on hand.
Buy One — Stock One
That’s a useful rule when people get serious about prepping.
You accumulate future meals inexpensively. Then you learn how to rotate the stock so nothing gets forgotten and nothing dies of old age before you do.
Same idea in the shop. Buy a saw blade? Toss the worn one, mount the new one, and put a second new blade on the shelf.
Same thing with fuses, relays, filters, bearings, switches, belts, pumps, connectors, and — apparently — air-conditioner capacitors.
There’s even a spare FlexMAX 80 MPPT charge controller sitting here for the solar system, plus a pair of imported 100-amp, 24-volt MPPT controllers. Need a spare 24-volt inverter? Yep.
That’s the drill.
So when the A/C began acting stupid, a 70/5 µF, 440-volt dual-run capacitor was sitting exactly where it was supposed to be. Because when you live out here in the Outback, needing a $20 part should not automatically mean burning half a day driving into town and back. That’s 30 miles plus gas.
If it does and you make frequent trips for parts? You may not belong this far out yet.
Where the $300 Bucks Came From
I had AI work up what a normal capacitor replacement call would probably cost from one of the very good HVAC outfits in town.
A weekday service call, truck roll, diagnosis, capacitor, and labor can easily land in the $200–$325 range by the time somebody has driven all the way out here. Mileage is time. On a 100°F summer morning, especially if you want same-day attention?
Add urgency. And another hunsky.
A perfectly ordinary little capacitor can turn into a $300–$400 event without anybody cheating anybody. No grudge, though: that’s just what trucks, technicians, insurance, inventory, travel time, and hot-weather demand cost.
Our version? About a $20 part that was already on the shelf.
Other than banging my arm on sheet metal and working up a good sweat, the avoided service call saved roughly $300.
That’s the point worth sharing with your kids:
DIY makes you money.
And tools, parts, and competence that keep paying you back over a 30-, 40-, or 50-year service life are not “junk in the shop.” They are capital equipment.
Sidebar: This is a mindset thing.
We saw a lot of this when we were doing serious sailing. People were doing coastwise offshore without a radio and without a “hole kit.” That’s two hammers and a bunch of wooden cones you can hammer into a leak. Having line pre-cut so you can draw a storm tri-sail under the boat was an exercise. It’s why there was a radar reflector on the overboard pole; because we sailed in crap conditions at night and in fog.
Some people just don’t get it. Prepping always matters. Ask a Ranger, a fireman, a medic, a cop. OK, back to the story.
Warnings, Cautions, and Injunctions
Now the part where somebody reads this and decides, “Hell, George did it, so I can too.”
Maybe. But do not attempt this kind of repair unless you already understand residential electrical work and HVAC capacitors.
Real electricity can kill you.
As in d-e-a-d.
For this job I killed power at the source, killed backup and solar, killed the house A/C breakers, killed the outside disconnect, and then verified the circuit was actually dead with a properly rated meter.
Not “probably dead.” Not “breaker looks off.”
Measured dead.
And because capacitors can retain charge, you do not treat one like an empty beer can just because the disconnect is pulled. In commercial work I’ve used lockout/tagouts, too – because again, in real trades, every possible error gets made. Which is what keeps G2 working.
Use properly rated tools and electrical PPE. Ordinary nitrile gloves and rubber-soled shoes are not substitutes for electrical insulating equipment.
If any of that sounds unfamiliar? Call the HVAC guy. His $300 is suddenly a bargain.
Then — and Only Then
With the unit verified de-energized, I moved one connector at a time so there was no opportunity to get cute and miswire the replacement.
- Common first.
- Fan next.
- HERM last.
“HERM” means hermetic — the compressor section.
And yes, I use insulated tools and take pictures before disconnecting anything.
Paranoid? No. Careful AND Paranoid is surviving long enough to develop hobbies.
My replacement capacitor stock will be back to normal tomorrow. $28 for a pair.
Was It Bad?
Oh, yeah. Way gone. The nominal 70 µF compressor section had collapsed to 10.78 µF.
That is not “getting a little weak.” That is a capacitor standing in the doorway with its coat on.
The fan section also deserved a check against the actual marked rating and tolerance. Mine measured 6.68 µF, which is not something I’d casually call “fine” if the can is marked 5 µF. That side gets treated as suspect, too.
The important number, though, was 70 becoming 10.78.
Done. Toast. Finished.
Which explains the ugly compressor start. Oh, and the LED lights no longer blink.
The Bigger Money Isn’t the Service Call
Here’s where people get tempted to invent precision.
A badly degraded run capacitor can increase current, worsen starting, increase heating, create nuisance voltage sag, and shorten compressor life.
What it does not give us is some magical clean formula where “70 µF fell to 10.78 µF, therefore the house wasted exactly 327.6 kWh last month.”
Nope. Too many variables. Compressor design, load, outdoor temperature, head pressure, runtime, cycling, supply voltage, motor condition, and how long the capacitor has been declining all matter. So I’m not going to pretend we have a laboratory curve for:
“5-ton Goodman, East Texas, 100°F, capacitor nearly dead.”
What I will say is this: The $300 service call was avoided. The compressor is starting correctly again. The ugly voltage dip disappeared. And the possibility of turning a $20 capacitor problem into a several-thousand-dollar compressor problem just went down dramatically.
That is enough return on investment for me. If the power bill drops, too?
New Annual Checklist Item
So the A/C capacitor now goes onto the Spring-into-Summer Checklist.
Not because capacitors need annual replacement. Some last years; some don’t. Annual checking is cheaper than guessing. But checking one before the first run of 100-degree weather is cheap insurance if you already know how to do it safely.
If a capacitor measures materially outside its marked tolerance, starts bulging, leaking, overheating, or producing ugly startup symptoms?
It gets replaced. No heroics.
And please tell me I don’t have to repeat the kill the power, verify dead, discharge and verify, use proper tools, know what you’re doing warning again.
Because this is one of those failure points people overlook until the compressor is making a noise that sounds expensive.
Older readers will remember the vacuum-tube equivalent. Not ringing a bell? In the old radio days, failing electrolytic filter capacitors accounted for a huge percentage of the classic:
“Radio works, but hums like hell.” Different century. Same lesson. Capacitors are cheap. Consequences aren’t. I cannot count the number of LCD/LED monitors I have resurrected with cap kits. If you like big monitors, a power-supply recap kit or two may be an idea to consider.
ShopJimmy.com — search the exact board number printed on the PSU (BN44-…, EAY…, FSP…). US stock, same-day cut-off, a place techs actually use. Match the full part number, not just the screen size and brand.
And that, boys and girls, is why the shop has all this shit.
Write when you get rich,