It’s not bad per se…unless you like to eat and such, but the arrival of a Polar Vortex next week in the US promises to chill down summer more than a tad.
The cold weather next week should set off all kinds of showers and storms but it’s not likely to have any impact on the national drought picture, which as I told you yesterday, is pretty grim.
So, hold cold will it get? There’s no telling for sure, but temps are forecast to be in the mid 80’s down here in East Texas, where usually by this time of year things have turned seriously brown by now. Still, that 15-degrees under “normal” around here may not be as bad as places like Chicago.
The forecast high in Chicago Tuesday may only hit 68 degrees according to the WeatherUnderground forecast over here.
It’s only been a couple of weeks since the NOAA folks quietly re-instated the 1930’s as the warmest period of recent record. And the last several years have failed to break records.
But is this evidence enough to change the political wankers who are licking their chops at the prospect of a global tax to support their empire-building? Most certainly not!
The International Business Times report that “Climate Change Deals Signed Between U.S., China; China Vowed to Cooperate But ‘Compromise’ Still Far Away.”
Gee, let me guess: Does this mean China is not run by morons? By extension and remembering there’s two sides to any equation, what would that make us?
The peak for the cycle looks like it will be about 105 (and a very short peak it was). The previous peak hit 170 and that’s a damn big reduction when you’re talking about something as big as the Sun.
While governments are putting out BS and hokum to sell climate scare, the oscillations of el Nino and la Nina are far more important as every farmer in California already knows. The classic anti-stampede book by Robert Felix (Not by Fire but by Ice, link below) as well as some other reads may slow the stampede, but don’t count on it. America has been dumbed down through medication and repetition to the point where we’re a soft-headed nation of lard-asses who wouldn’t get off the couch if the house were on fire.
I’m not saying climate change isn’t real. I am saying there’s a lot of data and a cool appraisal is in order, not this carbon-trading and global tax crap. When trading schemes and power grabs precede events, my BS detector goes off so much I’ve had to take the battery out!
Make your plans for future accordingly: These are the chip-chomping version of zombies and instead of blood, these run on high fructose corn syrup and medications. REAL zombies would be easier to deal with.
More after this…
Waiting on Inflation Data
The market has been taking a time-out this week after bumping up on the top of a couple of trend channels, including an ultra-long one that can be traced back to market lows in 2009. So the snooze here this week is less than frightening and more like the pause that refreshes. Still, been entertaining to see the parade of doomers out with TEOTWAWKI predictions.
The main economic deal today might be this afternoon’s Treasury Budget, or (after the close) let’s see if FDIC marches any banks out back for the final smoke and blindfold.
In the meantime, it will be difficult, as always, to sort out how much impact government spending (gotta hire them babysitters for the border, right?) will have.
For a good, short, education on GDP and GNP flip over here and once done, you can hang out your shingle as an economist, too.
Ultimately, all this stuff comes down to a simple question being answered correctly: “Is the market in a sell the rumor, buy the news” mode? In which case, the consumer price report next week could result in a huge run to the upside.
The other choice is no, we’re in “Buy the rumor, sell the news” in which case next week could be the start of a correction that might go 10-15%, but I’m really in favor of that not getting underway until this fall sometime. I keep looking at the Trader’s Almanac for hints and the average summer rally high isn’t due for another month and a half, so I need to be patient, doctor.
Gold and silver are screaming ahead as though prices will be rising faster than expected: Gold passed the $1,338 level this morning and silver is over $21.50. In the virtuals, we notice that Bitcoins are at $622 and popping around a bit. We still hold that if a currency depends on carrying an electronic device and having power to run it, it’s not really a durable currency, but WTF do I know.
What I do know is that moving to cash (or short) might be an interesting play A note from Robin Handler’s Options Signal Service has me looking at that:
Next week we enter a period filled with sudden and unexpected events. This happens from time to time, but this one is different: its global!
The one thing the stock market does like is uncertainty, and it is going to get what will seem like a never ending dose of it from now till the end of the month. Financial astrology Ray Merriman says it could run well into August. The astrological aspects during the second half of the month are powerful, big and not good!
Further evidence can be found at NOAA
NOAA is predicting a spike in geomagnetic activity around the 15th next week, and high levels before and after. (see table below). The correlation between an increase in geomagnetic activity and sell in the stock market is a strong and reliable one.
2014 Jul 12 160 8 3
2014 Jul 13 140 8 3
2014 Jul 14 135 8 3
2014 Jul 15 120 12 4
2014 Jul 16 110 8 3
2014 Jul 17 110 8 3
Spiral analysis of the 100 or so stock I am watching, while not show super big drops in the stocks during the second half of the month, I am struck by the sheer number of spiral charts all showing a drop in the latter part of the month.
And then we have a cyclical analysis which say we have seen the top, and we are not going back for a long time.
On the world stage we have what seems like an extremely high number of fires that could explode any time now:
1.) ISIS taking over IRAQ.
2.) ISIS now in possession of 90 lbs. of uranium. That broke on the news a few hours ago. That is enough to contaminate the water supply to New York city. B.O. says it is not important because it can’t be used to make a nuclear device. OK, let’s try this again, it is enough to contaminate the water supply to New York city. Maybe if you send this too enough of your friends it will go viral and get picked-up by the main stream media. And if that happens, B.O. might get it. It seems he only learns of things if they are on the news.
3.) Israel under attack from Hamas. Hamas wants, and is prepared for war. The last time these two had it out, Israel got a bloody nose.
4.) The border situation in the U.S. continues, and now we know some of the people sneaking in are from the middle east.
5.) Fukushima is having trouble restarting the cooling system to one of the reactors which MUST be restarted in the next nine days. Plus it is getting hammered by a typhoon tonight.
Toss in the economic data, the cold snap, and who knows…rain and flooding???
Be sure to drop by Monday morning when we flip the switch on another trading week…but if you need just one more thing to worry about, the Baltic Dry Index was down to 836 yesterday and this often means something less than smooth sailing for the global economy. Maybe that pullback will get organized after all.
Noonan Gets It Right
Peggy Noonan OpEd in the WSJ this morning wonders if a national without borders is a nation? But more important, how cold-hearted do the politicals need to be to use kids as pawns?
Maybe global cooling has frozen our moral compass and we just haven’t noticed?
Things are now on the verge of moving over into the stupid column…check that…stupider column: Since the government can’t seem to enforce the laws (remember those?) armed militia is now showing up at the border.
War Never Goes Out of Style
The Obama folks are offering to “help” end the fighting there, but since it is a border conflict and we don’t seem to have a great handle on how to deal with borders, I’d expect they’ll hit voicemail.
Checking the Global Caliphate
I told readers a month and a half back that ISIS would be the start-up of the New [global] Caliphate and sure enough, we’re reading now how “Appetites of ISIS extend far beyond Iraq and Syria…”
This is quickly sliding from “if” to a “when” the global war of Nostradamus comes along, so we’ll just sit back and hold a front-row seat for you.
(More in the Coping section to follow and drop by next week to see if I ever figure out how to write shorter columns…)