Crypto Burns – Rollover Monday?

Peering ahead at the day, we see that Gold is down about $16 bucks going into the U.S. open (no, not of golf!). This will place gold at $1,754.70 according to the Kitco charts. Let us do the math for you on how Ure’s Crazy Values Theory says things might work out today: The starting price … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: Greenhouse Chinese Diesel Heater Install

Some time back, I told you I was going on a buying binge for inexpensive Chinese “parking heaters.”  These are similar to the Webasto and Espar units that have kept truckers warm for decades.  Thing is, these are about 1/1oth the price. In fact, since my shop is part hardware store, off a compact enough shop to make … Read More

Inflation’s Still the Problem: Sucker Rallies and Sillyticks

I lost money in a short position Thursday.  My loss?  $14. How disaster was avoided was the diligent use of stops.  Usually of the “on quote” variety.  The core idea being every trade starts off being about a 50-50 proposition.  (See Burton Malkiel et. al A Random Walk Down Wall Street). Based on work by … Read More

CPI and “Digital Bank Runs”?

I suppose we should begin this morning’s roll by unveiling the new Consumer Price report just out from Labor: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last … Read More

PowerBall Late, Now What? NFIB Data

This being Election Day, we’re taking the unusual move of not talking about anything on the ballot – of is pretended to be so damn urgent that you have to vote for one clown, or another, who can’t change the Law of the Land single-handed, anyway. Have fun with that. We don’t know which one … Read More

Hard Week for the “War Party”?

There is a (sick) high art in Politics, American style.  Non-Solution. Issues come up, are cast about as “major campaign issues” – planks in party platforms – and despite being there (in the case of abortion rights) for more than half a century, they just never seem to get solved. Mind you, I’m not the … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: Stair Repair Saturday

A month or two back, Elaine mentioned that a couple of the stair treads on the short stairs (from the BBQ deck down to the shop walkway) were cracked and looking sketchy. This whole BBQ deck was a one-day build 10+ years ago.  And those stairs were built with two risers, not three.  So, maybe … Read More

“Crashlection” Week Outlook

When there is a “known” event of major magnitude on the way, markets often hint in advance what to expect.  This is most often done with price changes.  Markets running up ahead of an event are called “Buy the rumor” and the decline following is often labeled the “Sell the news” aspect. With (at best) … Read More

Job Numbers, Optional Rally, and a Side of Woo-Woo

Much to cover before “off to the Courthouse” to pay our 2023 Property Taxes after a busy Thursday. Let’s begin by inspecting the Employment Situation Report (EmpSit) just out from Labor, shall we? “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor … Read More

1929 and 2008? Nightmare on Wall Street III

Braced for a Crash-lection?  Might consider it! The early futures were telling us little that we didn’t know after the market fell on its nose more than 500 Dow points Wednesday.  As the Fed not only raised 3/4 percent but said another 1/2 percent was baked in the cake – and they will entertain ideas … Read More

Boolean Fed Watch

There is a really neat way of apprehending the nuances of futuring (watching for Observer expectations) that we kicked around Monday. It involves using a basic Boolean “truth table” to figure out where the odds are. If you want to skip this part, the bottom line (as of futures prices at 4:35 AM) looked like … Read More

Righty-Tighty, Lefty-Luca, Lobbying the Fed

Brevity makes another failed comeback attempt. As we are now in the best “working weather” of the year in East Texas.  With the opening of the deer season just ahead, a week of fence line work, posting “No Hunting” signs and purple no-hunting paint looms.  Fortunately, today and tomorrow look to be almost “economic news-free” … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: A 3D Workflow Example

I thought it would be fun to roll through an example of how a simple workflow process can be used to tackle almost any home handy-bastard project. Project Planning A number of projects were underway here this week, but they all have something in common:  They each went through a planning process where as much … Read More