WIGO? What Is Going On. And this morning the answer is “Oh, nothing much – just Joe Biden’s Depression getting organized.
No – not a political assessment – just what our charts over on the Peoplenomics side of the house are hinting at. Let me run it down for you and you will catch on very quickly.
First: An “Instant Stock Market Course”
I’m going to give you a chart in a second that is “information dense.” It simply gives a visual of many stock trading concepts in one view. Normally more the type thing we do for subscribers, but these are exceptional times so WTF, right?
Concept 1: Stocks trade in “trend channels.”
That is, over the long haul, stock prices can usually be seen in either an ascending (rising) trend. Or, in a declining trend. When the market is rising, the trend line is drawn between lower points and extended. This is copy/pasted and moved so that it rests on top of the first major rally. Defining book: Gilbert Raff’s “Trading the Regression Channel” on Amazon.
Concept 2: Elliott Wave Theory.
Which says, whatever direction stocks are going, they will tend to move in three or five step “waves.” Since that’s too simple, though, let’s also say “waves” are nested and this are called “degrees.” So a Wave 1 down, may have either 3 steps or 5. Defining book: Prechter and Frost: “Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.”
Concept 3: Currency Valuations Matter!
My real “eye-opener” was over a couple of martini’s at Traders Vic’s – which used to be on the bottom floor of the Westin Hotel in Seattle. (The one that looks like two corncobs, lol.) Dr. Paul Erdman patiently explained to me how – from the international perspective – When the Dollar is strong, it doesn’t take as many to buy a stock. It appears as the price (in dollars) is going down. When the dollar is weakening, it takes MORE dollars so it looks like the stock price is going UP. (Yes, but from the globalist view, you may not get rich this way…think of collecting tulips or finding a zillion Weimar reichsmarks. Defining books: Read every novel Erdman wrote. You’ll learn more than some business schools.
Concept 4: Ure’s Moving Averages Theory
No book, just a bunch of Peoplenomics articles over the past 20-years on the Peoplenomics site. Basically, it says “Anyone can make moving average charts. Using different averaging periods, crosses to the upside and downside become obvious.
Concept 5: War on Trump
Dems want to take the “Look at the economy! Success!” sales pitch from Trump. We are 56-days out. Plus or minus millions of mail-in ballots.
There. That wasn’t so hard, was it?
OK, here’s the high density view:
Reviewing this by concept, here’s what I THINK might be going on:
Concept 1: Black Trend Channel has been decidedly broken. Recognition may take a while. As we are likely to enter the declining channel, we can eyeball previous declines and make some reasonable estimates – once this first break is done – where the bounce should go.
Concept 2: Elliott looks like five waves up (green trading boxes) may be complete. We don’t do financial advice, but it’s fun to watch.
Concept 3: Currency matters – and this morning the dollar is showing strength. Lowers the price of gold, oil, and other physicals. Rising dollar because we have more peoplke working, so “The End” of the US economy isn’t here — yet.
Concept 4: Notice the two moving averages? They may cross this week or next in the yellow box on the right side of the chart. Yeah – that’d be graceful.
Concept 5: Headlines are already attacking the Trump Money Myth. Drudge Report is running with “Trump in Surprise Cash Crunch” and “Financial Supremacy Evaporates.” With links to stories like this one.
All of which ought to make for a relaxing day in the Scrooge McDuck suit. Sadly, the NY Fed and made-up news is likely to keep traders guessing. Over the long-term (>2-hours, lol) things ought to be slowly drifting down (and then quickly coming down) in order for the economy to seem semi-rational come voting day.
It’s not, of course. Voters are nuts, money is nuts, and the world is on life support dominated by economies that exist to make up shit we don’t really need.
This argues for the “Trump Economy” a fair bit:
Washington, D.C. (Sept. 8, 2020) – The NFIB Optimism Index increased 1.4 points in August to 100.2, a reading slightly above the historical 46-year average. Seven of the 10 Index components improved, two declined, and one was unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased two points in August to 90, the second-highest reading since 2017. The record reading of 100 was reached in November 2016.
“Small businesses are working hard to recover from the state shutdowns and effects of COVID-19,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “We are seeing areas of improvement in the small business economy, as job openings and plans to hire are increasing, but many small businesses are still struggling and are uncertain about what the future will hold.”
Other key findings include:
- Earnings trends over the past three months improved seven points to a net negative 25% reporting higher earnings.
- Job openings increased three points to 33% of firms with at least one unfilled position.
- The percent of owners thinking it’s a good time to expand increased one point to 12%.
- Real sales expectations in the next three months decreased two points to a net 3%.
As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, job creation plans increased three points to a net 21%, an unprecedented recovery from April’s reading of 1%. Construction job growth continues to be strong but owners in the sector are having a particularly hard time finding skilled employees. The manufacturing sector’s employment remained strong but not as strong as seen in previous months. The service sector is the missing link and the key to stronger job growth going forward.
EVERYTHING IS A BUSINESS MODEL. That rules the world – everything from CV-19 going through 27-million global cases shortly and 190-thousand U.S. deaths as the stats get updated.
And a very useful article this weekend in the St. Louis American about how OASIS has online tool to check your risk for COVID-19. Survey may be found over here.
And yes, I took it: Key outcomes?
Which is why I tend to be meticulous, right down to still cloroxing goods coming home from the store – and yes, all online shopping. No contact. Reclussive…well….
Massive Forest Fire Mess
We mentioned in our weekend coverage (rambles more like it) that there was a red-flag event coming to the White River fire near Maupin, Oregon, which has more than 1,000 people fighting it this morning. In all there are 32 crews, 42 engines, 12 dozers, 20 water tenders, and 7 helicopters. One chopper pilot was killed on this one about 10-days back.
Before the winds arrived at the White River fire however, they swooped through Malden, Washington, which is 35-miles south of Spokane. Result? 80% of the buildings in an eastern Washington town were destroyed during a Labor Day firestorm.
More people means more media focus on CalFires’ operations: Planned blackouts, unsuccessful helicopter rescue attempt as California wildfires rage on. And did you cat5ch where a “A gender-reveal stunt sparked a California wildfire that has forced 21,000 people to evacuate“? Can’t make this stuff up.
Boeing Troubles Grow?
Word is that concerns about quality on the Boeing DreamLiner has come under official scrutiny.
Related: Sure, it was a busy air travel weekend, as TSA reports busiest day for air travel since March.
But going on in background, people are rethinking travel at a deep level. And that causes ripples like Future of Bradley International Airport, once bright, turns uncertain amid pandemic and plunging air passenger traffic…
Around The Ranch
Hold good thoughts today for:
- Long-time reader Tim. Whose wife just had serious surgery over the weekend. Appreciate any good thoughts sent her way.
- Also for our friend Bruce. He and his wife are making an RV trip – a last one possibly – because he’s in declining health – prayers for safe travels and deep joy on the trip are appreciated, as well.
Cardboard Furniture Follow-up
More pictures from LOOTB – our reader who has been building cardboard furniture to demonstrate what can be done. Building a bar presently…
Came with note:
“…I haven’t tried it yet.. but maybe a corny keg would fit.. but now with an ice bucket.. I am thinking about making a drip tray.. the crest would look nice for some glass coasters.. It rolls real good and is sturdy with the rollers under it.. I was afraid they would rip off beings it is cardboard.. when I set it down.. I pre drilled then filled it with filler and glue.. ARM-R_SEAL is what I will coat it with.. after i put on the pouring medium..
All from Cardboard!!! Which “shows to go yah” there is no such thing as “poor” for the motivated creative soul.
Temporary shortages of funds? Well, sure, there is that… But poor is a choice and most people sit on their asses rather than make the “I’m successful whereever and whenever I choose…”
Cardboard Violin Research
One last item and this is trippy: Grady – who you’ll remember as the whiz programmer on the Nostracodeus project – also makes violins. Yeah… from scratch. (We’re renamed him Gradyvarius.
Anywho, getting Grady and LOOTB hooked up to see if these two gents might be able to build a cardboard violin.
Wait! All this talk about music gets me to this note: Chris Tyreman (Chronicle Project) sent us a link to the retooling of the Queen song into something called Coronavirus Rhapsody which you can find on Youtube here…
Songs of schizophrenia, anyone?
Off now for another day fighting for “Truth, Justice, and the American Way! And who, fights a never-ending battle for…uh… seconds…”
At click-time, Dow Futures are down 115, Nasdaq down more than 3% and S&P down a full 1 percent. But none of this is a suprise, because you did look at the chart in the lead today, right?
Write when you get rich,