Shitz not good on the Gross Domestic Product front: Biggest drop in history!
“Current-dollar GDP decreased 34.3 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.41 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4 percent, or $186.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter.
The PCE price index decreased 1.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.
Was ALL the detail bad? Well, depends if you look up how the “Personal Savings Rate” is measured:
“Disposable personal income increased $1.53 trillion, or 42.1 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $157.8 billion, or 3.9 percent, in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 44.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.
Personal outlays decreased $1.57 trillion, after decreasing $232.5 billion. The decrease in outlays was led by a decrease in PCE for services.
Personal saving was $4.69 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.59 trillion in the first quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 25.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with 9.5 percent in the first quarter.”
Go ahead, don’t mention the free money landed in here...just you know…gloss over the fake increases.
Meantime, German markets are down 2-1/2% (their GDP crashed, too but they were a little more open about it…) and our markets are futuring down 220-something as we click.
Predictably: Bad News Thursday
As I told you yesterday, the Fed going ahead with plans to just “print up more phony money” could not possibly be the cause of the stock shock to come.
Yet, here we are less than 18-hours later and futures are in the toilet. Reason? Well, depends on which paper or journo-pile you choose to ‘align with.’ Sure, blame GDP is’n you want, but….there are other ways to assess things.
For example, an erstwhile reader of Mashable would maybe point to how STUPID congressoids are and hold up as evidence the report about how Googster-in-Chief Mark “...Zuckerberg explains to confused congressman why Donald Trump Jr. was banned on Twitter.”
Ure Proposal #1: Mandatory I.Q. Testing for All Elective Office. 120 or not certifiable to be on the ballot. (If you argue for lower…whatg are you saying? Leaders should be more average?)
On the other hand, a neoclassical monetarist (like me, fer instance) might instead blame the market decline ready to roll out this morning on the coming realization that no matter who “wins” the election in 3-months, taxes are heading skyward to foot the bill for you-know-19… Especially the Trump Derangers who think Biden can magically set-aside the laws of money. As they read in “Tax Hike Under Biden Poses a Bigger Threat to Tech than Hearing” over here, there is no magic panacea.
Ure Proposal #2: Make all political parties liable under “Truth in Advertising Laws” for misrepresentations (lieds) told to gain votes.
Or, you might blame this morning’s stomping of the bulls on the fact that this is Ure’s “lunch money trade day” for the week. It ain’t that hard.
An Interesting Concept
As I explained to our Peoplenomics subscribers Wednesday, I have a simple theory that says if I just do a day-trade, or three, per week, and each of them makes a percent (or two) then come the end of the year, I will outperform 99.5% of all other options.
By simply going long, or short, index options, I don’t have to worry about what the financial press says about the Zberg or Musk…I just go in long, or short, and walk off sometimes with modest profits. Not big ones, but a burger or two per week…..adds up over time.
In doing so, even in upward drifting markets (juiced by runaway Fed printing) I like the short side because the number of times there are “negative surprises” compared with “positive/upside surprises” seems like a pretty simple statistical problem.
Take today, for instance: ““Markets Are Nearing Their Limits”: Futures Falls, European Markets Tumble After German GDP Crashes.” See how surprises are mostly to the downside?
Or, Take This Morning’s Sick News
(Off we go into deep thinking, now…) The CV-19 numbers going through 17-million global cases seems like it could be one of the “reasons” for the markets pending decline. (You can’t blame the making up money boyz at the Fed, right?)
No surprise – we have been telling you this was coming for how many months? Since early MARCH is it? (“Ure selling doomporn!” – No, we do analysis…the fallout matters, but I digress…)
Next week at this time, we will slide over 18-million globally. And did you see where yet-another vaccine peddler (besides Gates) is admitting the disease is changing ands morphing so fast than an annual 19 shot may be necessary?
“‘We don’t know’: AstraZeneca CEO says ‘unpredictable’ coronavirus may require annual vaccinations” Again, the obvious we’ve been screaming for how long?
Mutating too fast…. vaccines won’t work. Like the “shot for the common cold” this is in the no-way pile.
Ure Proposal #3: If government (or software billionaires) tells you about a “silver bullet” solution is coming, assuming they’re lying (and/or misinformed).
We won’t say America will descend into Purgatory should Slow Joe win. We’re comfortable leaving that statement of obvious to president Orange. Which the AP flipped around into “As crime surges on his watch, Trump warns of Biden’s America” without bothering to mention who is Hungary for revolution here.
[Disclosure: We are skeptical of ALL AP reports (despite being a stringer for years in my newsing days) because they now support inequality. They recently decided to capitalize black but not white…which to us reeks of overt partisanship. Both caps or both lower-case, we don’t care…but equality in all things (except restrooms) is our motto. Blatant pandering to social uprisers and Venezuela clone-monkeys is not what we believe in. Did you see where the (Amazon) Post got it right?> “Washington Post to capitalize Black, White in stories.” RFO, Wapo! AP hasn’t been the same since Wick Temple passed..but I digress…again….]
Anyway…somewhere in this vile-bile rant here, my point was Slow Joe’s pseudo-drama of which woman to pick as Veep is really a train wreck to behold.
We can hardly wait for Joe’s “mailed in” election by stuffing victory so we can cheer on four-years of GOP hearings into Ukraine-gate.
By then, China’s up-armoring will be complete and they will launch drone wave after wave to take down America; driving up the leftist-friendly coast from Baja Chinafornia… But, let’s not get ahead of the story…except to mention maybe global wars tend to follow global Depressions and we’re on the stoop of that right now. Check the market for gory details as we stumble through the day.
Trump Losing It?
Lest we be accused of partisanship (though we generally support people who can read a P&L, however) let’s take a second look at Orange One: “Trump says coronavirus stimulus checks, direct payments may be more than $1,200.”
90 days from an election, and there’s no chance in hell the demagogues who control the House which is where all spending bills originate will ever…. Wait! Does that anti-malarial stuff cause aberrant behavior?
Only a raving (or twitting) idiot would believe the “mythical” Nadless or Nasty Nancy are going to let ANYTHING being held sausage loose before the electile dysfunction? Cereally? FMTT.
Dr. Fauci: Americans may want to wear eye coverings as well as face coverings. Some of us have done that since Day 1: Glasses I figure can’t hurt.
BTW, I picked up a clear cover for my Lincoln Electric plasma-cutting face-shield. Shaded lens and a clear one… I call it my “Cut and Run set…”
Urban’s Department of Useless
NASA readies launch of Mars rover to look for signs of life. We know there’s no intelligent life here…maybe there?
Fortune figures U.S. CEOs now see a double-dip recession as more likely than a V-shaped recovery. Except that second dip will be the Depression, but we’ll come to that conclusion only in the rearview. Anticipating isn’t in vogue.
You mean there IS NO RECOVERY? U.S. CEOs now see a double-dip recession as more likely than a V-shaped recovery. More gory in Continuing Jobless Claims Spike As Almost 50% Of Lost Jobs “May Be Gone Permanently”
Lemme think…I did mention new unemployment claims were up and the world’s getting ready to end, right?
Off to chase food… Write when you get rich,