Fall Calamity Looms: Stupid Investor Festival

Yeah, we will get to the “good news” about personal incomes and the employment cost index in a sec.  But, we need to have a little “come to Jesus” about what’s going on because a lot of people seem wildly delusional about present Realities.

Not that they are to be blamed, of course.  We are entering Post Modernism with only a bankrupt sketch of retools Marxist ideologies.  And, if you listen to the “deep thinkers” at the Macro level, things don’t look at all promising.

In our work, it all blows to hell-and-gone this fall.  Here’s why:

Reason #1:  Earnings Mean Little  

Hype yes.  meaningful? No.  A LOT of Tech Earnings are Phony.  You see, once-upon-a-time, companies that made piles of money were judged on earnings because that meant there would be a  dividend along shortly (as in “actual cash money”) paid out to investors.

Example 1:  Facebook.  “Good earnings” report and so in the pre-open session the stock was trading up 6% to almost $250 per share.  But, since we like “thinking like Buffett and Munger” (a  lot) we look at Facebook and apply our “Lemonade Stand Methodology”.

Whacking off zeros, the “market cap of FB” is around $656.54.  The book value of the stock (selling off the parts of the stand and the lemonade jugs) is less that 1/6th of that, according to the statistics on Yahoo Finance here.

While this “$656.54” Lemonade Stand does generate $73.36 in sales.  we like companies that are more than a stock proposition.  Ergo, we focus on this troubling section:

I will never own the wisdom of Buffett & Munger, but you do see the point, right?  A LOT of the high flyers in this market are stock propositions and not what a conservative thinker would define as “investments.”

Example #2:  Tesla.  See their stats over here. Seeing the pattern, yet?

Example #3:  Amazon.  See their stats over here.

To cold-hearted investors of the Jerry McGuire (“Show me the money!“) school, stock propositions are a dime a dozen.  Or, in the case of Amazon in the early slog $3,235 per share.

Ure doesn’t invest in this kind of proposition.  Because these companies do not have a long-term track record of sharing the wealth with the people who made all the growth possible.  All you get is the possibility of a higher stock price for now.  To me?  Well, call me old-school, but we are presently living in the greatest financial bubble in the history of the world.

When it breaks?  God help us all…

After the hype and BS smoke on the financial impo channels has cleared?  Demand is still collapsing as evidenced by “ExxonMobil Records Second Consecutive Quarterly Loss Amid Q2 Oil Price Plunge, Demand Slump.”

The Fed’s Asymmetric Counterfeiting Op

We know the American stock market dropped more than 33% in mid March.  And it has come up a bit since – almost to new highs.

But there’s been no economic recovery.  Next week we will get employment data, but in the previous month’s report, remember the number of people actually working was still far lower than the previous June.  This year, 142,182,000 were working.  In June of 2019, 157,148,000 held jobs. About 9.5% MORE unemployed.  10% fewer workers and stocks near records?  Beat me some more! I’m stupid enough to swallow anything.

With the bump up in first-time jobless claims this week, we don’t think a lot of jobs will ever be coming back.  And when they do? Not only will workers have to navigate the treacherous waters of “political correctness” (defined by mob rule), but in addition robotics will take a lot of jobs.

On point are articles like “This Popular Burger Chain Now Has Robots Cooking Your Food” and “‘Thousands will be displaced’: Stone & Chalk acquires tech internship platform Ribit as robots loom large over labour.”

We’re quickly departing “The Robots are Coming!” to “The Robots are HERE!”  And no country in the world – save Russia, which is eyeing a 13% income tax equivalent on robo-labor) seems to understand that when no one is working, no taxes come in, which drives inflation out past Uranus…

What to do, while the blow-down blossoms?  Why print up more Fed Scrip,. of course!


Since we know the market went down 33% – and we see where six-months in, M2 is UP 35.8% in the overnight Fed H.6 Money Stocks report, we can see the tatters of “hanging together” will be cited by delusional economists who think MUM/MMT (Making Up Money/masquerading at Modern Monetary Theory) will all work out.

Check with Zimbabwe and remember when Mexico went down this path a couple of decades ago, it brought the Nuevo Peso and the rise of Cartels.  Venezuela and our tax burdens are nearly equal now on a PPP basis…with the only difference being that everyone is claiming victory and neither country supports a president.

Fun shit, huh?

Oh, why to I call MUM/MMT counterfeiting?  Because there is now  nothing in the way of stable convertibility of dollars into goods.  Inflation is coming as we pass the depressionary deflation.

Post-modernism insists there “be no discomfort” for the darling snowflake whiners.  No “sucking it up” and “working your asses off.”  Eventually, we will have to implement China-style “re-education camps” for the Free Lunchers, but first we have to trash America enough.  Then Soros, et all, can  really have their way with us.

Daily Data Dose

Which one first?  Employment costs, is it?  Can you say wage-driven inflation?

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.4 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from March 2020.

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.7 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2020 and also increased 2.7 percent in June 2019. Wages and salaries increased 2.9 percent over the year and also increased 2.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2019. Benefit costs increased 2.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in June 2020. In June 2019, the increase was 2.3 percent.

Then comes the personal income fairytale.  Unless your last name begins Bez or Zberg and you have a stock proposition going.

Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion (5.6 percent).

Real DPI decreased 1.8 percent in June and Real PCE increased 5.2 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

Ready for the belly laugh?

Personal saving was $3.37 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 19.0 percent

Hand me a line of blow while I go through what they’re saying, here:  Income was down, DPI was down, and consumption increased, right?  OK, how the holy-f*ck does that leave an increase in “personal savings?”  (*correct answer: crooked definitions!  Disconnected from real world.)

Not in our world out here.  But, for those with a cult-like following who don’t demand rent on their money – since everyone else is sinning the stock propositions (FOR NOW), it’s all good, right?

Jeer at me while you can because you know what happens today, right? $600 unemployment benefits set to expire Friday.  More to come?  With the DC Clown convention?  YGTBSM.  When could your new stimulus check come from the IRS? Let’s review some possible dates…all speculation and hard to pay bills with that.

You stupid and generous taxpayer, you:   Fools on the Hill are about to take off for recess.  Fire ’em all at the polls or by mail this fall.

Viral News

Passings:  Herman Cain – who I would have voted for in a second had he made it that far.  Of coronavirus.  And yeah, he refused to wear a mask.  And yes, he had comorbidities.  Higher CV-19 risk for cancer survivors.

Appallingly, the  NY Times continues the left-wing drive to continue to use a global medical issue as a political wedge.  See “Will Herman Cain’s Death Change Republican Views on the Virus and Masks?” as the latest example.

As of today, we see global cases around 17.332 million and the only question is which side of 18-million by the time we get to next Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report.  We will likely be in million cases a day globally around the first of October.  Compounding just like interest.

The only good news is global community immunity at the 50% level looks to us like late spring of 2021. When the death toll globally is up around 16-million.  Just looking ahead.

Oh, and did you see where “Coronavirus cases in Tokyo soar to new high as city prepares to launch its own “CDC”?

In the Shorts

Not so slick, Willy: Bill Clinton visited Jeffery Epstein’s private island, unsealed court documents suggest.

“Oregon” still means “idiots” asPortland protests draw thousands Thursday, after state troopers start duty at federal courthouse.”

Is better computer security coming? IBM completes successful field trials on Fully Homomorphic Encryption/”

Peoplenomics tomorrow.  We expect the market to rally early, but if Europe doesn’t do more than a dead catr bounce, our Global Aggregate shows a decline this week and that could be a U.S. headwind into the close today and opening Monday.

For now, everyone’s skipping rehab meetings and futures are up 42 on the Dow.  I’ve worn out another pair of ViseGrips pinching myself this month.

Be safe…and yes, we continue to wear PPE for the 10-minutes a week one of us is in town.  Medicine is real.  Wrong-headed Opinions will get you killed.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

37 thoughts on “Fall Calamity Looms: Stupid Investor Festival”

  1. Lol just about lays it out damn ain’t those Russians sneaky after all it has to be someones else’s fault not our own, and what’s coming was needed about twenty years ago, and now we all get to enjoy it for there’s no fixing to this mess except hard times and misery…

    • It’s sad but true. Depression II (the greater depression) is here. AmRev II – coming in November if the Dems win. Btw, in all likelihood, AmRev II may come no matter what the election results, but having a radical leftist woman running America (when Biden expires) is the closest thing to a guaranteed revolution that I know of. The difference is that the radical left openly embraces Marxism whereas Trump is against Marxism in theory, although truth be told, the Republicans under Trump have done little to oppose the advance of the marxist agenda.

      We get to dystopia either way.

  2. Hey, G – good report.

    I don’t know why “earnings” matter at all. Most stocks haven’t paid dividends for years. And the companies that did, like GM 10 years ago, when they file BK the senior debt gets canceled. Down where the rubber meets the road nothing is collateralized Law is made-up as we go. The paperwork is meaningless.

    Boeing stopped being a going concern 20 years ago. The Boeing wage level has “kept up” because of bailouts. Do Boeing “planet smackers” really provide so much value that they can price their product beyond the reach of physical customers?

    Here’s a Hertz funny. Hertz customers have begun complaining about upgrade charges for car rentals. As example some folks have reserved a Cadillac which is a five seater. When the customer gets to the counter the desk is out of Cadillacs (probably at auction) but do have 7 seater Kia’s. The larger capacity vehicle means upgrade charge. LOL

    Please don’t fall for any “Jail Bill” nonsense.

  3. “medicine is real” – Ure however is NOT ..

    The FEAR PUMPER in Chief hisself.

    – NETHERLANDS Refuses to MANDATE Mask Wearing in Public..

    “No proven effectiveness of Mask “/ Netherlands Minister of Medical Care -Van Ark

    “Cant see whats coming” ..Yeah yeah yeah whats coming is Ure ass handed to U on a silver platter. Like it has been “handed” to U for the past 20 some years..

    Ure quote should be Medicine is THE “rockafella” model..

    – IT IS A BUSINESS of TREATING, No cures(“suppress at all costs”) = Keeping the “human resources” DIS-EASED =$$$$$$$$$

    See current Vaccine Race with COVERT19 – ITS A BUSINESS/POLITICAL MODEL -Duh-ohh!

    Same GOD DAMNED Problem with EDUCATION System – “THEY” are very RICH..sure, but they are VERY EVIL.. Look at THEIR WORK, NOT at “their WORDS” – see Obummer for current examples..

    No worries for the Faithful though, cause Jesus Saves! …just make sure U bring Ure Children with U to “Service” – bwahahahahhahahaha

    ? Does China Mine precious Metals like Gold & Silver, Does IRAN Mine Gold and or Silver Ore, historically or currently?..OF COURSE THEY DID/ DO!

    – but U would NOT want own ANY Gold or Silver BECAUSE the “towelheads & slopeheads” CURRENTLY MINE Precious Metals..

    NO BITCOIN 4 U !

    • “No proven effectiveness of Mask “/ Netherlands Minister of Medical Care -Van Ark””

      Is right with you Bitcoin… I also don’t think sneeze guards are necessary at the buffet or mandatory had washing after you wipe your azz..heck i don’t get shizt on my fingers do you..
      The odds of getting sick are minor.. so why mandate mask wearing sneeze guards and soap and water for toileting..if the odds are thousands to one…
      It’s a precautionary measure.. if it stops one person from getting sick it’s worth the trouble.. so wear a dsm mask..i have known some nm pretty cool people that have come up on the bad side of not paying attention to the protocol’s ..
      Bitcoin won’t save your azz if you get sick and hospitals wont accept it for payment..I’m pretty sure they would tell you.. why did you even seek out medical treatment if you didnt have real cash.. you should sell your car and move out of your house to pay for it..

      • Sure – and lets Quarantine the HEALTHY People while Ure at it. Who is the NAZI -FASCIST in this discussion…”if it stops one person from getting sick, it’s worth the trouble” …FMTT!

        If just one person- more – would: wash their hands regularly /take high dose Vit. C &D, 30mg Zinc/Day with Quercetin/Selenium – We wouldnt have to worry about the SPREAD of the covert19 DISEASE.

        Why do Medical Staff wear Mask’s in Operating Room’s ?? I thought you worked in “medical” fields..not paying attention or just clueless ??

        Get out the box and wake up – U have been acting like a “slave” for far too long..IMHO

  4. Something I’ve been laughing at is the case of the ER doctor in LA who was fired for coming out with “embarrassing” video supporting HCQ.
    NOT for coming out with bad info that puts peoples lives in danger.
    NO, they don’t care about that!
    She “embarrassed” them, so she had to go.

    Tells you right there what their priorities are, doesn’t it?

    • AMEN KAS, when you drill down to the truth the stupid Democrazies stick their heads in the hole and the truth never sees the light of day.

    • Absolutely right! I think it’s high time we “cancel” the “cancel culture”.

    • Breitbart twittercast a Q&A the other day, by, like three doctors who had a collective ton of experience using HCQ for CV-19.

      As a result, Twitter banned Breitbart for disseminating unapproved information.

      I didn’t hear the twitcast, or even the Breitbart News segment discussing their banishment, but merely caught snippets of a news brief. However, I believe I assembled the relevant facts in a m/l cogent manner…

      • This video, and others by the same folks can be found on bitchute. Search on “Frontline doctors”.

        The original one – dated July 27, is definitely worth the watch! The others probably are too if you have the time.

  5. Mark’s note yesterday was interesting about education. No one, will be more interested in the future of your children then you. We made the decision to forgo chasing the Jones’s and my wife quit her engineering job and manged our household including our children’s education, while I focused on providing for the family. She chose a mix of home school, local experts, and online learning that was different for our son vs daughter, as they had radically different interests and capabilities. My point for Mark is to try to include options with your local programs that make it easier for families to choose such a path. It was a struggle at times fighting the establishment to be able to go our own direction that met their needs.

    In some cultures we have completely broken the family unit and it continues to decay in others.
    One single parent cannot, in most cases, meet all the families needs (income, education, ethics) and keep everyone’s head above water. The state will never be able to replace the nurturing that a caring and engaged parent would be able to provide.

    We also made a mistake as a society, I believe, in the focus on both partners working to grow our lifestyles (bigger house, fancier autos, more useless stuff) and default to the state to decide the best ways to educate our kids. We are now paying the piper for this lack of responsibility instilled in our spawn. They are now expressing the results of the education provided, that all good things come from the state and individual freedom should be suppressed through the use of force for the common good. They will sit in their homes scrolling facebook, playing games, watching netflix, awaiting their next government check. Perhaps rioting because what they are being provided by the state does nothing to fulfill them as human beings as we need to overcome obstacles to grow a sense of self worth.

  6. Of ALL the government lies through out the decades…this one takes the ‘cake’..

    Ready for the belly laugh?

    Personal saving was $3.37 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 19.0 percent

    the $ 3.37 Trillion was the stimulus currency given to the banksters and the corps…..which they then COUNTED as savings…

    a Neck Tie ‘party’ is too good for all these rats….that spew these statistics….

  7. Prefer “medicine” to come in bottles that have printed upon them “not for extended usage”…when treatment or murder of patients with “chronic” disease is 20% plus of the economy?

  8. I actually believe that personal savings were way up. No voodoo economics this time. It may have not been up for everyone, but for those 85% that are working it was. We had nothing to spend it on. No movies, restaurants, shopping malls, cars, vacations, business airline travel,. I personally have the proof. In additions to my own bank that tracks my spending by category, I have another app called Truebill that charts my expenditures and my personal expenses were down 39.6% compared to pre-pandemic spending…which means my savings were up too.

    Combined with an increase in YOY sales and I am sort of digging this new paradigm. It also helps all of us re-think priorities. Because my clients work from home, they show up to see houses in shorts and sweats, so I do the same. It breaks the ice and makes them feel way more comfortable. Therefore, do I really need that new Massimo sport jacket or pair of Ferragamo’s. Hell no. My new uniform is a collared short sleeve shirt, shorts and a pair of Vans at 1/30th of the cost.

    Maybe this is part of the reason why the market is up. More people taking their personal savings and investing it instead of spending it on expendable items. I understand that not everyone who is unemployed is definitely not in this position. But, we are talking averages here. If 85% are still employed…they too Can’t spend as much and are probably saving for the same reasons I am.

    • Lol what ever your using don’t give it up as the economy continues to tank, and don’t believe all those phony figgure’s that the government puts out for it makes you out as a troll with no back up,for I suppose all those trillions that they dumped into the system had nothing at all to do with a rising market,damn how dumb people are that you have to hit them in the head with a club somewhat like a mule……

    • Good points, though I could see DIY home improvement soaking up a lot of those savings. In my own personal lifestyle, nothing has changed in the least since COVID, other than delaying a necessary 4000 mile round road trip and various inconveniences buying supplies.

  9. “thinking like Buffett”

    I really like Mr. Buffett…
    He’s the real deal in my book.. super nice guy great sense of humor, modest ,smart,
    Reminds me of dad…what would really make me happy is take him to Mickey dee’s for a mac and coffee and just visit..let him pick the subject for a nice relaxing conversation..

  10. George,
    -If Reagan had not firmly set Conservatives on this path of spend and borrow, that is, what you call MMT, in order to get the rich tax cuts, maybe the national debt would not be so unmanageable.
    -Also, since the US is doing grossly worse both on economic and mortality Virus indexes than all the other first world countries, such as Canada, the EU, etc., don’t you think an inquiry into the reasons (e.g., conservatives’ position on masks) might be in order? Rather than labeling it a liberal “political wedge issue”? Shouldn’t terms like that be reserved for Trump’s phony Law and Order stunt in Oregon?
    -Lastly, yes, automation is inevitable and unavoidable, and driverless vehicles will be the tipping point. So, we better start worrying about all these idle transportation workers and collapsed macro demand, like pronto, or we’ll go the way of 1930’s European totalitarianism. Best, Mike.

    • “If Reagan had not firmly set Conservatives on this path of spend and borrow, that is, what you call MMT, in order to get the rich tax cuts, maybe the national debt would not be so unmanageable.”

      Mike…. I don’t think it was Reagans fault.. We were on a collision course for the countries economy to fold.. The steps that Reagan took he truly believed that they would work.. and if jobs hadn’t been outsourced and mom forced to go to work.. I think it maybe could have.. trickle down didn’t trickle down it went into a bank account in another country..
      https://www.chinhnghia.com/The-Creature-from-Jekyll-Island-by-G.-Edward-Griffin.pdf
      great book a super fast read.. I actually gave these away as xmas gifts.I think the bailouts is someplace in chapter two or three.. Reagan had only a couple of choices.. one was let the country go through one of the toughest corrections in history.. or bail it out.. we know what he chose.. now we are faced with a correction from HELL that will not only touch each of our lives drastically but the whole world as well.. what comes from it.. who knows we are in uncharted waters here.But lay the blame on Reagan not from me.. he made mistakes.. he was an actor not a politician.. he believed in what he was doing.. and if those he had faith in would have worked it out the way it was intended to be done.. we would be ok today and not having to face what is coming….. before the creature.. the scariest book at the time was the book doublecrossed..which I could follow in the newspapers.. now my scariest book on my scariest book list is adolphs second secret book…

    • The 1930’s European style totalitarianism is already in full swing; you just haven’t caught on yet. It will be the corporate brown shirts who grab your assets and your freedom, and grind you under foot, while the politicos and monarchists cheer them on.

      You may have gotten a bye on the first round as reward for stumping on the left’s behalf, but you will be in the crosshairs by year’s end the same as the rest of us. The left consolidates power by sending it’s most ardent to the camps first.

      I am awaiting the wave of conversions from wingnut to political independent that is the only hope for salvation.You can believe in representational democracy without believing that the gangs are the only solution.

    • You’ve got like 4 trains of thought, and they are all garbage. If you’d get off shareblue or whatever garbage you’re consuming, you might understand why.

  11. 3.37 trillion in one month means 300 million people all saved at least 30k each. I don’t see how that’s possible in one month of “less than average” expenses due to lockdown.

    Personally, my credit has expanded, my garbage cans are fuller than ever, my money is getting spent as soon as I earn it as always, my habits have changed but that is fringe money compared to my normal economy which has increased cash throughput since this started.

    The home depot is always full, all stores that are open for that matter. Every brick and mortar place we spend money at is relatively as busy as ever. Home sales are normal. What am I missing here? The only thing I haven’t spent money on is business travel, about 10 grand.

  12. My math is terrible. It works out to more like ten thousand saved in a month for every single American. Still not very likely or well explained by covid economics.

  13. try again .. internet monitored for insanity .. dropouts galore . if they told the vaccinated vegetables dog droppings were valuable they would clean up the sidewalks

  14. now for part 2 .. sorry George not all gets thru the stazi ussa monitor .. we the real gold bulls from 25 years ago were trained for this .. the new gold scum led in 2 bit gin joints like 321 and kitco by greedy old fools are a disgrace .. this is the only place I come .. the only guy in 25 years is George ure .. has his moments of weakness but basically an honest super bloke .. this is a disgrace this world .. short the guts of everything , stay healthy and read rayard kipling for inspiration.. and to you moriarty on your 19th birthday .. I hope your cake goes flat

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