We can roll first with the Big Number of the day – which is the number of people filing for first-time unemployment this week:
In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,981,000, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,169,000 to 3,176,000.
The 4-week moving average was 3,616,500, a decrease of 564,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 7,000 from 4,173,500 to 4,180,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 15.7 percent for the week ending May 2, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 from 15.5 to 15.4 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 2 was 22,833,000, an increase of 456,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
The previous week’s level was revised down by 270,000 from 22,647,000 to 22,377,000. The 4-week moving average was 19,760,000, an increase of 2,729,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 67,500 from 17,097,750 to 17,030,250.
Yes, in case you’re wondering, this is going down faster than the Great Depression.
Stocks in “Trouble?”
Oh, duh. Options expiration today. So look for more “froth” than usual today (downside) and tomorrow a covering rally – maybe. Next week? Who knows.,
Based on the early futures today, here’s one way to consider things.
The biggest yellow box is Wave 1 down. The big greenie is the wave 2 up. More boxes define the 5 waves each…
I would draw your attention to that mighty-stylish yellow arrow which points to a horizontal red band. Until the market gets down (and lower) than that level, there is still a chance that the market could rally as the top of the II box.
A worst of all things would be to drop to the red line, then bounce 0.618% and then start down again. That’d be the time to cozy up with the dust bunnies and hang out under the bed for a while. Because the modern world will be collapsing from sight. People will discover “paper” ain’t exactly a strong foundation for cooperative society.
Politically, both corporate-owned political front organizations are trying to work it: Dems want utter collapse. Reprobates want to make up Weimar paper, so’s no one will notice. Confused?
You don’t need to be “papered in economics” of any kind to grok what’s going on: There is a Titanic battle for the future underway. As one of our readers summed up in a very good comment earlier this morning:
“Once the spiral of defaults and bankruptcies begins to be fueled by imploding social mood, helicopter money will run down the Wall Street Rabbit holes. If all the helicopter money goes only to finance ever-expanding defaults by hedge funds and other monetary leeches, the monetary hyperinflation never makes it to the street level except in the form of government paralysis and expanding private and sovereign defaults. At the consumer level, deflation and hyperinflation exist simultaneously in a dizzying pattern. The illusion of stability and control evaporates. Depressions do not favor debtors or normalcy biases.
While the virus may have been the black swan economic event, it is now simply an environmental hazard. The real danger is in depression, which is giving the appearance of already being in a self-perpetuating downward spiral. Credit deflation with random consumer hyperinflation looks to be on the menu.”
Which, if you’re paying attention, is what we have been worried about ever since this outbreak (release?) of the bioweapon occurred – something those in “official-dumb” as still ass-covering on and afraid to tell us the Truth.
Bioweapon? Jury Still Out, But….
Not on it being a bioweapon. Just on the (minor?) detail about whether its release was intentional or accidental. Nukes hang in the balance on the answer to that one.
Let’s build up a simple statistical reason why it looks like a bioweapon:
- China pop. 1,380,000,000. Cases: 84,025. 1 case per 15,423 people.
- U.S. pop. 327,000,000 Cases: 1,390,764 1 case per 235 people.
- Germany pop. 80,600,000 Cases: 174,098 1 case per 463 people.
- U.K. pop. 65,800,000 Cases: 230,985 1 case per 284 people.
- Japan pop. 126,000,000 Cases: 16,049 1 case per 7,851 people.
- Singapore pop. 5,890,000 Cases: 26,098 1 case per 226 people.
Those countries where masks were acceptable going in (Japan) and where there was a Gestapo-like smash to lock people in (like China), the case incidences were low. At least what was admitted was low. Open societies with little social distancing (up front) got hammered.
Which gets us to this morning’s data. In our latest roll through the data, globally we should be over 5-million cases by May 24, or so. And we are on track to pass half-a-million dead globally first week of June.
Then the “magic of compounding” kicks in for the summer. Labor Day is Monday September 7, this year. By then, our numbers are estimating global cases could be as high as 115-million. The global death toll would then pencil out in the 6.3-million range. And the U.S. death toll could be as high as 1.7 million deaths on nearly 37-million cases.
Rather remarkably, the global markets are not even beginning to reflect this rising calamity-in-waiting. Instead, normalcy bias continues. And the usual spew of political bullshit pretending that $3-trillion in democrat-backed spending of made-up money will help. While the Trumpsters are trying to push “back to work” we can’t help thinking the world has gone absolutely bonkers.
If you need help: This is a potential planet-killer, though in very slow-motion. It is a bioweapon-on-the-loose problem and that’s a medical problem. Anything you hear that links politics to the outcome will be purely incidental distraction.
Did You Resupply?
Not to be a nag here, but You have one mission: Survive this shit. Three years from now, the Global Depression will be well underway and life will be sketchy and unpredictable. Power, phones, and the internet may all be “up and down” and the US and China will be on the verge of war before then
If you want to make “paper money” – have at it. We’re just stupid enough to keep investing in the actual things of survival and not the phony representations of success in the current paradigm.
Just a silly-me guess here: Owning solar panels and an inverter could be much deliver much more status than, oh, say an electric car, which can’t be charged with tyhe grid down.
Don’t mean to sound glum, but AYFKM? This is the “rally” in the collapse you will have been using to double-up your preps and brace. If you’ve been paying any attention, at all.
Things That Don’t (or Marginally) Matter
Yet fill up our excess news capacity and capture small minds so they miss the Big Ugly Reality (BUR) now unfolding. Like fer-instance…
This isn’t really painful, right? Toke-up before reading: Consumer Financial Stress Index Declines, in Reversal, As Policymaking Actions Temporarily Relieve Pain.
We see CNN has found a story suitable for their talents: “Everything you need to know about cutting your own bangs, with Farrah Fawcett’s hair stylist.”
Speaking of genius-level reporting, how about CNBC’s “The jobs recovery could be choppy, with some coming back quickly and others lost forever…” (They figured this out without help? Saddle up my robot so I can ride over and talk to these ol’ boys…)
And while we’re on smart people, Fortune has “CEOs don’t see a full economic rebound happening for years.” My, aren’t CEO’s smart? We repeat: Any company with a stock buyback in the last two years should get zero public bailout dough (which includes the Fed made-up money).
Better odds than Publishers Clearinghouse? Some Social Security recipients to get stimulus checks today.
This is so much fun we’ll have to do it again tomorrow. Off for a nice before-breakfast flogging now.
Write when you get rich,