Short column this morning as Elaine get’s “hippified” this morning. I won’t bore you with the God-awful clock reading, but early is an understatement.
One of the challenges (when a spouse) is headed in a “knifely direction” is maintaining balance and focus on all the details of life. If columns have been a bit less clear of late, that’s the PBA (personal balancing act).
Turnaround: For How Long?
Having blow out of a short-side “lunch money” trade Monday (while doing the pre-operative surgery screening) it occurred to me that I should – for Peoplenomics subscribers – mention where we are this week in our Aggregate Index work. I’m not the only one able to spot clear air turbulence in markets: Biggest Shorting Of Tech Stocks By Hedge Funds In 5 Years: Goldman Prime.
Excuse the chart but there’s a lot going on.
What concerns us most immediately is how far the present rally can run.
There’s a faded yellow band (horizontal) which is overhead resistance – at least for now. On the other hand, if the rally (set to begin according to futures) only makes it as far as the black ascending trend line (by the “4?”) and kisses the bottom of the trend, that could wrap up the small 4 and then we could drop for a big five down.
What makes this so interesting is that this little wave action seems to be following the Elliott rules nicely. With the 1 down, 2 up, 3 down having a nice “regular 2.” Under Elliott, oftentimes, if 2 is “regular” than 4 may be “complex” (which it is doing nicely).
But Longer Term?
Any rally in here could go sideways – and even break higher, which could set up a one or two month rally (to complete a larger 5) and that might get us to the late June to mid July “next pre-war” window. For this one, the action in Gaza seems to fill-the-bill.
What we find so interesting, though is the correlation between crypto moves and the wider stock market.
You see, the Bitcoin read was back up to $45,000 and change. And I have to say, for a wildly “independent” currency, the correlation with the Aggregate Index has repercussions in our thinking.
Is it possible that there was “waves of human speculation” what wash through all investment options including stocks and cryptos, commodities and politics? Sure is an interesting line of inquiry.
Since I have to play chauffeur for a little while today, have a gander at the Census page over here after 7:30 AM Central (8:30 Eastern, and big hand is half way to the 6 out in Kalifornia). US Census Bureau: Economic Indicators
A Few Headlines
A few remarks on the coming of robotics in Peoplenomics tomorrow (which will be abbreviated this week). But around the edges of that discussion? Lumber Industry Has No Interest In New Mills As They Reap Rewards Of Record Prices.
On the vaccine front: Biden Dips Into U.S. Vaccine Supply to Send 20 Million Doses Abroad. What concerns us is we haven’t seen which countries we’re sending vaccine to. Maybe they don’t want to say, but we sure want to ask. Is Iran on that list, for example?
Meantime, many variants of the “variants” story are popping up. Newspaper headlines: Fears over variant spread as millions reunited.
Perpetual Maricopa: GOP Chair Elise Stefanik: Justice Department Is “Trying To Block” Maricopa County Audit. Wake me up when it’s done – and then only if it changes anything.
Speaking of recounts and audits, did you see the Yahoo piece Voter machine audit comes up with new totals in Windham?
Wrong-Way Cortez is still running her socialist spew. In AOC, dozens of House Dems cite ‘racial reckoning’ to oppose targeting gang members for deportation. Send ’em to her house, then.
If the lights flicker…Incoming Geomagnetic Storm Expected To Hit Earth Tuesday. On the other hand, if the web goes down, it wasn’t doom porn after all…
Here’s another dose of our California Quake Doom Porn: Earthquakes hit Lake Tahoe on CA-NV border says the San Luis Obispo Tribune. Not doom porn in our view, just a reminder who is really in charge – and it’s not social media…
Spy Versus Spy Dept. Russia spy chief suggests West behind SolarWinds cyber-attack. Denial, deflect, and make counter-accusations?
Off to brief the house-sitter (“Coffee is here, mortars over there…) and off to hip repair joint… Quiet day tomorrow, except for Fed Minutes tomorrow afternoon.
Write when you get rich,