Options Week Roulette

Oh, sure, early futures were down a bit. -100 on the Dow and -10 on the earliest S&P read.  But where the week gets interesting is why options close this week and we get ready to move into a holiday spirit the week following for Memorial Day.

About the only news item worth watching this morning is the Empire State/NY Fed Manufacturing report.  The page (here) will be updated on  release.  (I’m not going to sit around waiting, lol.)

Instead, we’ll be looking for signs and portents elsewhere.

War Watch 101

If you watch “seers” – people who do serious future predicting – there’s a loose consensus that the period we’re now in could be labeled something like “the Pre-War’s.”  To 2024’ish.   The world doesn’t just jump into World Wars.  There are long-shadows cast ahead of events.

For now, attention is focused on Palestinian territory from which rockets have been lobbed into Israel for more than a week.  Resulting in the inevitable blow-back:  Israeli warplanes stage more heavy strikes across Gaza City reported the Associated Press.  Whose building was bombed, too.  But it’s standard operating procedure (SOP) for cause groups to hide behind churches, media centers, or any other “place of convenience” in prosecuting their wars.

I think I’ve mentioned this a few times, but am I the only one that understands how nation’s become valuable on the one hand, or drop into war on the other?  A lot has to do with the industriousness, civic-mindedness, and education of the people.

If a nation spends all of its energy on educating their citizens, growing food, and really “making the most from the least” – such people are true prizes of humanity.  On  the other hand, if “education” involves how to put on a suicide vest, then the world will eschew them.

Except, of course, for the mainstream media – which spies conflict and “stirs it up” as a working anti-American agenda item.  When Israel showed US ‘smoking gun’ on Hamas in AP office tower, officials say – The Jerusalem Post  it was clear the Israelis were targeting a military target, not a gathering of peaceniks.

Still, with the U.S. split politically (it’s the left’s favorite tactic; divide and conquer) and since the Slow Joe administration is unwinding U.S. relations with Israel (the Obama playbook, which included sending cash to Tehran) we hold absolutely no delusions that peace will come soon.  Or even later.

What was the old jingoism?  Oh yeah:  “Permanent War for Permanent Peace” wasn’t it?

We obviously don’t swallow all of what Gore Vidal claimed in his book Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace: How We Got to Be So Hated.  And – in fairness – when war gets “of a certain size” (planet-killing) then Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) policies can work.

But détente at gunpoint only works in the statistical region of strategic parity.  People of Gaza are being led to the slaughter by power-mad demagogues who can’t seem to understand how far from parity they are.

The demagogues are not without hope, though.  They have a sympathetic leftist American press and the OBiden administration to help.

The IDF however, like any army. is not a democratic institution.

There’s a glimmer – but just that – in the report No sign of Israel, Gaza violence abating amid calls for end to bloodshed.  Maybe we’re not the only ones who can count and gin-up strategic assessments in advance.

Bidding on Ukraine

Another war-in-the-wings remains the standoff in Eastern Europe.

(You want to cue up Vanna Whites saying “Bit Money!  Big Money!”?)

The European Union is buying in:  UkrInform: Maasikas says EU is Ukraine’s largest donor report the KyivPost.

While there are ongoing issues with regional politics, Ukraine is still well-suited for heavy industry.  Despite Mines were once the beating heart of eastern Ukraine. Now they are ticking time bomb.”

While NATO is quietly bidding, Ukraine’s west-friendly leadership is making tons of promises (like Zelensky announces provision of fast Internet access throughout Ukraine this year).  But the reality is Russia and Ukraine will (in our cynical view) be ready to go head-to-head in July, or so.

Quake or Attack?

My friend G.A. Stewart put up a piece last week which – if you haven’t read – jives closely with our read of times ahead.  In Stu’s read of Nostradamus we’re in a month where either an Earthquake or War could break out. Of the mushroom sort.


Then flip over to the global zoom of the USGS Earthquake monitor site here and cross your fingers that it’s the “wrong May.”

Random Snides

From our “This is Getting Old” department:  Campaign launched to mark Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.  Strangely, no invites for Elaine and me yet.  Hell, I was even willing to buy some new gel kneepads for all the kneeling involved.

“Print us a few Billion while you’re at it?” impacts:  This Is Not The Inflation You Are Looking For, Move Along over on ZeroHedge.

Say what? Fauci urges Emory graduates to strive for ‘even better normal’“-You mean like research into gain of function technology which Fauci et al funded at the Wuhan lab and then made up the story about this being a natural virus?  I mean despite no one every locating a source/natural reservoir as epidemiology 101 teaches?  And a “better normal” with oh, so delish annual recurring revenues from re-shots?  THAT kind of better normal?  Help a brother out here….?  (muted sound of wind blowing political smoke through cities overdubbed…)

They Never Stop Selling Climate Change.  Nominees today include the BBC taking hype to the sports page – where they don’t mention China is still building 200 more coal-fired power plants while Slow Joe has killed American energy independence:  “Sport 2050: Climatecast – a weather forecast from the future – BBC Sports.”

Not Enough Climate Hype for you?  Well, since I’ve suffered allergies for 70+ years *(and just as miserable now as ever, but no more so) here comes another shrill shill in “How climate change is making already bad allergy seasons even worse.  Hay fever is always worse in spring and summer…less prevalent in the Arctic…but never stop selling, right?

Social censorship sucks.  Ban a president, but this?  Spanish politician temporarily suspended by Twitter after saying ‘a man cannot get pregnant’.  Does ANYONE bother taking a biology class, or don’t they teach onboard plumbing anymore?

Here’s a novel concept we’ve been noodling:  “Pre-emptive Divorce.”  Now, why would that come to mind?  Hint:  “Microsoft Board Members Wanted Gates Gone In 2019 After Investigation Into Sexual Relationship.”

Around the Ranch

Watered the tomato patch Sunday morning.  Hour later, down  comes the rain – with more on tap:  Heavy rain causes flooding across Dallas-Fort Worth; up to 8 inches predicted this week.

Ham radio project – build of the uBitx transceiver Sunday went without a hitch.  Tossed on the Rhode SMY-01 I found the frequency adjustment was off a couple of KHz.  But sensitivity was OK – generally in the 0.1 to 0.17 microvolt range.  But “runs out of audio gain” down there.  Not that rare DX will happen with 6 Watts out (voltage and band dependent).

And a capper for you from the Citizen Free Press:  “Fauci Admits — Roughly half of NIH employees have chosen not to get vaccine…”  As Elaine and I continue to live in semi-isolation (we will go out today for a medical appointment) the data is not-yet convincing enough to jab.  And claims that the vaccine reduces severity seem to lack the one guidepost that always works:  Statistical decision support.

We’re still open to a (non-mRNA) vaccine, but only when a vaccine is through clinical trials (which require data) and when the vaccine is not part of the biggest medical experiment in human history.

N100’s with no vent continues when we’re off the property.  We hold to a variant of the old medical adage “First do no harm.”    The Ure’s “new and improved” version is simply “First, run  the numbers.”

Write when you get rich,


30 thoughts on “Options Week Roulette”

  1. Please stop. The idiotic “predictions” of war, earthquakes etc are just a con game. Why do you continue to post them. Do you even have to ask if it’s the wrong May? Here’s my prediction…Nothing will happen and the Nostra-con jobbers, will start making up excuses that maybe it is an anagram and May spelled backwards is yam and that we will see war when we eat yams at thanksgiving. Another anagram is Amy and maybe Amy Klobachar will start a war and cause an earthquake. Do you see how this scam continues?

    There only one way to predict the future…get a planner and make it happen. I can predict that today I will have 4 meetings, will get 2 listings and have a sizable check deposited in my account today. It’s on my Google calendar and I can say with 100% accuracy that it will happen today. And the more I plan, prepare, study and control, the more accurate my future becomes a 100% certainty. So quit the stupid predictions and plan for how you will make the future happen.

    • Hold the phone, partner. So when California media mention quake odds (https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/tsunami-danger-lurking-off-san-diego-coast) that’s OK?
      And when CNN is all over Wars – and Hamas tunnel system (https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/middleeast/israel-palestinian-conflict-monday-intl/index.html) THAT’s OK, too?

      But when George comments that’s “idiotic predictions” and a “con game?” Help a brother along…

      Sure sounds like a double-standard to me…but I’m just a nutter in the woods. Not worried about stories like 64% of millennials regret their real estate purchases… https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/17/64percent-of-millennials-have-regrets-about-buying-their-current-home.html

      The good news is we agree on the planner and making things happen, though. That’s a plus.

      All that was on my planner today was bagging a modest profit on a short trade from the Friday close and getting Elaine through her pre-surgery tests at the doc’s place… I have noticed though that I tend to be more in the doom and gloom groove when I have to hang at hospitals though…hmmm…Maybe I should just look at the planner, trade slips, and the bank balances…

      • It would look even gloomier if you had no health insurance (Medicare?) and had to pay full retail for your medical services.

        The majority of personal bankruptcies in the USA are triggered by medical expenses.

      • On point, Torah prophecy is a bit trippy. Same with Nostradamus. “If” he and other folks “could” view our reality, how would someone living in a pastoral Middle Ages technology describe their visions of our present day? A fighter pilot could not be comprehended accurately in Nostradamus’ time’s terms, but perhaps calling them “pig half man” (wearing an oxygen mask with face shield and helmet) dueling in the sky was the best that Nostradamus could do. Same goes for nations and people. There was not yet a Russia, China or Iran in Isaiah’s reality, so maybe “Gog and Magog,” who come from the north of Israel, the Orient (China) and Persia (Iran) were the best possible terms for him to communicate his visions to his people. I don’t rule it out, because in the ‘many worlds’ view of reality prevalent in physics today, we know know time is “an Illusion,” as Einstein famously remarked. So a prophet may not see across time, but simply receive signals or visions of the things that we are experiencing through a non-local effect connecting minds across space-time. Our past, present and future realities seem eerily intertwined. What happens today is what the prophet of the past saw. What the prophet of today sees will happen tomorrow. Yet it is the self which makes the choices necessary to experience this particular causality.

      • Yes, EE, and our esteemed leaders AKA Demoncrats knew that only $7,000 in medical bills caused bankruptcy in the United States BEFORE they passed ObamaNONcare (with NO Republican votes) and then they destroyed the lower deductible, and AFFORDABLE plans that had low monthly premiums and reasonable deductibles, with their ridiculous Deductibles of $5,000, $7,500, and $10,000 and up per person and their exorbitant monthly premiums up to $1,100 a month for couples, to start!! So, that’s a fact that seems to escape most people.

        Our Government Demonrat officials do NOT care if the lower middle or middle class files for BANKRUPTCY over Medical Bills. All they care about is paying the BILLIONS in EXPENSES including FREE medical care, education, housing, food, spending money, IRS freebies, you name it, for the illegals and their children, boyfriends, girlfriends, husbands, wives, mothers, fathers, grandparents, and sponsors.

        So, Medicare for a person who has paid all of their working lives into the system seems reasonable enough, wouldn’t you say?

        AND for the rest of the population that are Legal Citizens, there are other options besides traditional INSURANCE premiums.

        That’s the shame, is that people do not look outside of their box.

        And I do not mean leaving the USA for their monthly or annual care or emergency care.

        You have a nice situation down there in Ecuador, but I looked into your pricing, and guess what? I can live cheaper in the USA; Ecuador is too expensive.

      • “it would look even gloomier if you had no health insurance (Medicare?) and had to pay full retail for your medical services.”

        Boy am I with you on that one Expat… almost seventy percent of our gross income goes out for medical …. like the teller at the bank.. she makes just a couple dollars a week after daycare, transportation and medical insurance.. the only reason she works there is for the health insurance..
        George.. don’t sweat what Mark had to say.. sounds like normal Cali mentality..

        Only time will tell if we go deeper down the rabbit hole..

      • “And I do not mean leaving the USA for their monthly or annual care or emergency care.”

        I needed a costly surgery.. it had to be pre qualified by the insurance company.. they would send me brochures from other hospitals from other countries wanting me to get the surgery with one of those hospitals..
        I say open the borders to pharmaceuticals and insurance companies.. many of my pharmaceuticals are produced outside the USA and the cost of them is thousands of percentage less than here..
        I’m my mind theres absolutely no reason why American laborers give money for medical research then have to pay so much more than everywhere else.
        The same with insurance.. simple rules that there are already laws for.
        No discrimination.
        No price gouging.. everyone pays the same stable price for the same product.
        Open the borders and allow insurance companies from everywhere to be able to sell their product anywhere.
        Open the borders for buying pharmaceutical.. southern texas is a hot spot for elderly to travel to to buy inexpensive medicine

    • Written like a true American. Arrogant and ignorant to the core about what is happening in their own country.

      You might even be a millennial, one who has no concept of consequences for what you do or MIGHT NOT DO!

      Whatever you do for income, what happens to it when half the households in the USA cannot afford the 50% YOY increase in food prices, or the 3 million households who owe rent/mortgage payments for the past year when the moratorium ends.

      Or when for one reason that 27% of household income from government sources disappears?

      Or when the northeast pipeline actually fails, instead of being deliberately shut down by management because the ransom ware might cause them to not be able to bill for what they pump.

      I know one thing for certain. You do not produce anything to bring in that income.

      • Gee – you didn’t even get into my secret Gloom and Doom: How does America work when one morning we wake up and Kam Harris is president and slow is go…

      • When Harris becomes president after Joebama, Amerika is in danger of becoming Kamunist. The woke of every ilk will orgasm with ideological delight. But the wisdom of the Founders could shortly come into play, with the Senate and/or House reverting to GOP control in 2022 and the SCOTUS duly abides by the fundamental precepts embodied within the Constitution and its 27 ratified Amendments.

      • “when one morning we wake up and Kam Harris is president and slow is go…”

        I personally would feel a little more secure if she was president than joe.. and let’s face it shes a whole lot easier to look at.. lol

  2. Curious what you doctor is advising on a vaccine. You have written quite a bit on discussing your medical investigations with your doctor. How are the responding to this topic. Since you and Elaine are in a “higher” risk category, I would be interested in what they are advising. My wife who has power of attorney for her mom also is not getting her the vaccine, even though my wife has done both first and second shot. Being honest the “risk” of a life altering side effect will have a lower long term impact on the older citizens, as their life is necessarily going to be shorter, and side effects will not have decades to show up. I worry more about the younger and impacts yet unknown who have a long life to work through.

  3. “territory from which rockets have been lobbed”

    and there are “territories” where rockets are manufactured and people think little about where those might wind up killing their fellow men?!

    Too many people need jobs — and there are just too many on this particular globe. Go way back into history and you’ll see that it cannot be changed because we are just too fertile ;-).

    • Me the only person who thinks that there are too many of US in relation to “available resources?”

      Most problems are resulting from this one fact!!!

      Why don’t we just stop b/s-ing each other? ;-((

      • “Me the only person who thinks that there are too many of US in relation to “available resources?”

        Sadly choices… that’s a well known fact.. the population has outgrown the area available for sustainability..
        And every minute we loose vital rich cropland do to our expansion..
        Ihavesaid for decades that we should be promoting all forms of energy, greenscaping our cities.
        Smaller solar towers starting at the furthest substation from the power plant and work back..and promoting home owners to put up systems by freezing rate increases for a ten year period, as long as the homeowners give excess energy to the power companies.
        Put up co2 filters within cities and high pollution zones..
        In desert regions and regions of heavy water usage. Air wells to gather drinkable water..

  4. With interest I’m watching Israel repopularize the lynching. Lynching is very primal. I’ve never been to a lynching. I bet it’s a very emotionally charged affair. Even participating as spectator.

  5. Fact of Life – Lying LIAR LIE – alwayz

    Once again – PRESACTLY like Ure covert 19 stats – 100 % wrong – off – pure FUDian bullshit !

    More G Ure FUD debunked -https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-energy-use-far-lower-banking-system-gold-industry-report.

    Yellow Dandylyin “Journalism” – its what s for breakfast.

    – another oppty to get some “cheap” & hodl for a loooooooooong time.
    – 4 as the BCN alwayz sayz – “good things come to those who wait”
    When I get done wiping tears of laughter from my eyes, tell BCN again why U defend the NOT federal reserve and its unbacked, fiat, “roth script” versus Bitcoin ? something about criminals ? bwahahahaahah Ure killing me !

    criminals ?!?!?!?! compared to who – the NOT federal reserve, fondlem/obumma and hildog, piglosi&schmear

    Gee – I wonder why the poor Palestinians, real genetic Hebrews, cant find work ??cant get a job ? cant get clean water ? clean food? a breath of fresh air/

    Understand APARTHEID? – it is disgusting, as are the People and nation that defend it and practice it every single day..Pure eVIL .

    • “Gee – I wonder why the poor Palestinians, real genetic Hebrews, cant find work ??cant get a job ? cant get clean water ? clean food? a breath of fresh air/”

      …Probably has something to do with electing terrorist organizations as their ruling class.

  6. From time to time you trot out the low cost computer controlled transceiver kits you are eyeing. Are there any low-cost computer controlled receivers which have caught your eye?

  7. Going to war has nothing to do with the qualifications of a population, other than their tolerance for sociopathic and psychopathic leaders.

    I advise you to start looking closer to home for war, George. There are really strong indications that the USA is moving into civil war. You see, all those record gun sales the last few months have not all been going into the hands of conservatives. If you go out into the real USA, you will find many who rabidly believe that the elections were legitimate and that the audits are simply a criminal attempt to overthrow a duly elected president, and they are getting tired of folks who believe otherwise. And they also believe the constitution is a racist document written by and for the benefit of whites, and that rule of law is suppressing minorities. Many of these people are white. I am not joking.

    Trump derangement syndrome is not a psychological diagnosis that can be overcome without psychiatric help. It is more prevalent than most realize. 86% of those who voted for Biden were actually voting against Trump. That’s out of a pool of at least 60 million voters. That’s how someone like the current president gets into office. You don’t have to get people to vote for you, just to vote AGAINST the other guy.

    This civil war will be started by those in power after the rent moratorium ends and people start ending up on the streets. The federal government is already fomenting it at every opportunity, like the decisions on immigration, where illegals get better benefits than American homeless. Billions go to the Ukraine, but ex military live on the streets. Etc., etc., etc., And when people no longer can afford/find food, prices of which are going to rise 50% year over year. This civil war will be to cover the malfeasance of those in power.

    And when people realize that neither of these issues can be fixed in less than two years and start getting irate against those who really caused this, then they are going to take us to world war, which will get at least one USA city nuked.

    The USA breaks up, so there is no entity to pay off the national debt or claw back the purloined trillion$, and pension funds for American retirees (the most endangered species on earth), disappear. All required “by law” to hold USA treasuries. How long can you survive if your pension, social security, Medicare, etc. disappears?

    Population of the USA by 2025 will be 100 million, reduced by at least 10 different causes. Americans can barely name one or two, much less grasp the perfect storm of 10 or more in a short period.

    The Deagle website, a CIA contractor, reduced the population number from 100 to 65 million before they were taken down. This USA number, just one over 130 countries they evaluated for population change, has much to support it.

    If one has the courage to look.

    • “This civil war will be to cover the malfeasance of those in power.”

      If there were to ever be another American uncivil war, you are exactly correct. The sad thing is by owning the lamestream media, those responsible for the malfeasance will likely be able to deflect blame to those who’re not.

  8. To Mark;
    Everything is a Business model. This is a business model very entertaining, sometimes profound ,and always with different view points.. As it says ,somewhere, there shall be wars and Rumors of war. Storms, earthquakes, Tsunami’s.
    landslides, plagues, and trying to ptedict the future is just another business model. Pays well sometimes too.
    A doctor(PhD) type has an algorythym that can predict if you wear boxers or briefs,what color suit or shirt you and your cronies wear. He worked for US Gov,CIA and his stuff was more accurate than a whole building of analysts. University professor, and does quite well if still alive..
    Much we do not see,much we have not the words for or do not know the right question for .Much in our world we do not understand. Question everything especially what you think you know…

    • The world is very predictable when you use math as the source code. What we don’t know is due to ignorance. What we should know, but don’t is laziness. What we do know and continue to want to know is greatness.

  9. Privatize the profits, socialize the losses”

    That means something.

    Last year the Edenville Dam in MI failed. Boyce Hydro had the license to operate the dam.

    The screens showed the men crying, the women crying, the children and the inter generational families all crying. 300 gators were wiped out and filed lawsuits.

    And like that:

    “Boyce Hydro Power. However, Boyce has filed for bankruptcy protection, which was granted last month.

    “So, in essence now, Boyce is going to be gone and dismissed from these lawsuits,” said Johnson. “And we now have two major lawsuits leftover on behalf of all these folks.””

    So now the State folk is on the hook.


    U.S. ‘incompetency’ led to Edenville Dam failure, couple claims in lawsuit


  10. Dear looking out of Box;
    Our population is7.5 oe 7.8 billion.
    Japan,South Korea, China are in population decline.. Yes Japan for 30years,Korea for 10 or so, China last 2 or 3 years.
    When people move off farms into cities they havef LESS
    CHILDREN. As we urbanize we have less kids. Don’t need more hands on the farm and don’t need more mouths to feed in cities.. We may not reach 9 billion or even 8.5 billion.
    This is a Worldwide happening.. As standards of living and urbanization increases we have fewer kids. Women Have more Choices for employment,partners and to have children or NOT..The USA and Mexico still have growing populations..
    Europe Australia,Canada, parts of Africa are producing less people,populations are starting to shrink. All in the current Demographic data.. Also it astounds me as to how much copper, Iron,aluminum, we use every year. Volume of petroleum. We have enough Thorium to power our world for 1 billion years in Thorium molten salt reactors. Safe power.
    We have asteroids for metals and rare earths to keep fueling us. We have the asteroid/Comet cloud at the edges of our solar system (Ort cloud) to provide material and energy to take us to other star systems.
    Our future is only limited by our knowledge,imagination and desires. We can become a lot. Won’t be Star Wars or Star Trek but it will be AMAZING…If we do not destroy ourselves..

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