Oh, sure, early futures were down a bit. -100 on the Dow and -10 on the earliest S&P read. But where the week gets interesting is why options close this week and we get ready to move into a holiday spirit the week following for Memorial Day.
About the only news item worth watching this morning is the Empire State/NY Fed Manufacturing report. The page (here) will be updated on release. (I’m not going to sit around waiting, lol.)
Instead, we’ll be looking for signs and portents elsewhere.
War Watch 101
If you watch “seers” – people who do serious future predicting – there’s a loose consensus that the period we’re now in could be labeled something like “the Pre-War’s.” To 2024’ish. The world doesn’t just jump into World Wars. There are long-shadows cast ahead of events.
For now, attention is focused on Palestinian territory from which rockets have been lobbed into Israel for more than a week. Resulting in the inevitable blow-back: Israeli warplanes stage more heavy strikes across Gaza City reported the Associated Press. Whose building was bombed, too. But it’s standard operating procedure (SOP) for cause groups to hide behind churches, media centers, or any other “place of convenience” in prosecuting their wars.
I think I’ve mentioned this a few times, but am I the only one that understands how nation’s become valuable on the one hand, or drop into war on the other? A lot has to do with the industriousness, civic-mindedness, and education of the people.
If a nation spends all of its energy on educating their citizens, growing food, and really “making the most from the least” – such people are true prizes of humanity. On the other hand, if “education” involves how to put on a suicide vest, then the world will eschew them.
Except, of course, for the mainstream media – which spies conflict and “stirs it up” as a working anti-American agenda item. When Israel showed US ‘smoking gun’ on Hamas in AP office tower, officials say – The Jerusalem Post it was clear the Israelis were targeting a military target, not a gathering of peaceniks.
Still, with the U.S. split politically (it’s the left’s favorite tactic; divide and conquer) and since the Slow Joe administration is unwinding U.S. relations with Israel (the Obama playbook, which included sending cash to Tehran) we hold absolutely no delusions that peace will come soon. Or even later.
What was the old jingoism? Oh yeah: “Permanent War for Permanent Peace” wasn’t it?
We obviously don’t swallow all of what Gore Vidal claimed in his book Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace: How We Got to Be So Hated. And – in fairness – when war gets “of a certain size” (planet-killing) then Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) policies can work.
But détente at gunpoint only works in the statistical region of strategic parity. People of Gaza are being led to the slaughter by power-mad demagogues who can’t seem to understand how far from parity they are.
The demagogues are not without hope, though. They have a sympathetic leftist American press and the OBiden administration to help.
The IDF however, like any army. is not a democratic institution.
There’s a glimmer – but just that – in the report No sign of Israel, Gaza violence abating amid calls for end to bloodshed. Maybe we’re not the only ones who can count and gin-up strategic assessments in advance.
Bidding on Ukraine
Another war-in-the-wings remains the standoff in Eastern Europe.
(You want to cue up Vanna Whites saying “Bit Money! Big Money!”?)
The European Union is buying in: UkrInform: Maasikas says EU is Ukraine’s largest donor report the KyivPost.
While there are ongoing issues with regional politics, Ukraine is still well-suited for heavy industry. Despite Mines were once the beating heart of eastern Ukraine. Now they are ticking time bomb.”
While NATO is quietly bidding, Ukraine’s west-friendly leadership is making tons of promises (like Zelensky announces provision of fast Internet access throughout Ukraine this year). But the reality is Russia and Ukraine will (in our cynical view) be ready to go head-to-head in July, or so.
Quake or Attack?
My friend G.A. Stewart put up a piece last week which – if you haven’t read – jives closely with our read of times ahead. In Stu’s read of Nostradamus we’re in a month where either an Earthquake or War could break out. Of the mushroom sort.
See his article CAUTION AHEAD – THE AGE OF DESOLATION.
Then flip over to the global zoom of the USGS Earthquake monitor site here and cross your fingers that it’s the “wrong May.”
From our “This is Getting Old” department: Campaign launched to mark Queen’s Platinum Jubilee. Strangely, no invites for Elaine and me yet. Hell, I was even willing to buy some new gel kneepads for all the kneeling involved.
“Print us a few Billion while you’re at it?” impacts: This Is Not The Inflation You Are Looking For, Move Along over on ZeroHedge.
Say what? “Fauci urges Emory graduates to strive for ‘even better normal’“-You mean like research into gain of function technology which Fauci et al funded at the Wuhan lab and then made up the story about this being a natural virus? I mean despite no one every locating a source/natural reservoir as epidemiology 101 teaches? And a “better normal” with oh, so delish annual recurring revenues from re-shots? THAT kind of better normal? Help a brother out here….? (muted sound of wind blowing political smoke through cities overdubbed…)
They Never Stop Selling Climate Change. Nominees today include the BBC taking hype to the sports page – where they don’t mention China is still building 200 more coal-fired power plants while Slow Joe has killed American energy independence: “Sport 2050: Climatecast – a weather forecast from the future – BBC Sports.”
Not Enough Climate Hype for you? Well, since I’ve suffered allergies for 70+ years *(and just as miserable now as ever, but no more so) here comes another shrill shill in “How climate change is making already bad allergy seasons even worse. Hay fever is always worse in spring and summer…less prevalent in the Arctic…but never stop selling, right?
Social censorship sucks. Ban a president, but this? Spanish politician temporarily suspended by Twitter after saying ‘a man cannot get pregnant’. Does ANYONE bother taking a biology class, or don’t they teach onboard plumbing anymore?
Here’s a novel concept we’ve been noodling: “Pre-emptive Divorce.” Now, why would that come to mind? Hint: “Microsoft Board Members Wanted Gates Gone In 2019 After Investigation Into Sexual Relationship.”
Around the Ranch
Watered the tomato patch Sunday morning. Hour later, down comes the rain – with more on tap: Heavy rain causes flooding across Dallas-Fort Worth; up to 8 inches predicted this week.
Ham radio project – build of the uBitx transceiver Sunday went without a hitch. Tossed on the Rhode SMY-01 I found the frequency adjustment was off a couple of KHz. But sensitivity was OK – generally in the 0.1 to 0.17 microvolt range. But “runs out of audio gain” down there. Not that rare DX will happen with 6 Watts out (voltage and band dependent).
And a capper for you from the Citizen Free Press: “Fauci Admits — Roughly half of NIH employees have chosen not to get vaccine…” As Elaine and I continue to live in semi-isolation (we will go out today for a medical appointment) the data is not-yet convincing enough to jab. And claims that the vaccine reduces severity seem to lack the one guidepost that always works: Statistical decision support.
We’re still open to a (non-mRNA) vaccine, but only when a vaccine is through clinical trials (which require data) and when the vaccine is not part of the biggest medical experiment in human history.
N100’s with no vent continues when we’re off the property. We hold to a variant of the old medical adage “First do no harm.” The Ure’s “new and improved” version is simply “First, run the numbers.”
Write when you get rich,