Two hours to the open, the Dow was up more than 200 points.
Not only that, but piddling gains were being seen in Europe, as well. Despite the news about the Delta variant being very grim, indeed.
Still, we can haul out some “tried and true – sometimes” trading ideas and let them fly.
First off is the Time Estimator. The idea goes that panics and sell-offs happen two to three times faster than rallies.
Our Aggregate Index closed July 12 (last Monday) at 39,243.10. At the close yesterday, we were down 5-trading days to 38,060.49. That’s a 3% decline for equal dollars in the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ.
Five trading days down MIGHT be setting us up for another climb of the “rock wall of worry.” This is not recommended investment territory for widows, orphans, and people afraid of heights, though. BUT, what it sets up is another outpouring of “free money” platitudes and the Fed going “all in” on borrowing and re-borrowing.
There really isn’t much of any other choice. Deflation isn’t lightly knocking on the door. It’s sounding like a SWAT team with a battering ram. The 10-year Treasury note was 1.181 percent when I checked. Last year at this time, the ten was up around 1.75%.
Sure, sure, the happy-talk is that inflation is the Big Worry. Long-term data says “Not so quick, Bucko…”
Housing Becomes Key
President Slow has someone coaching him who doesn’t understand dynamics very well. When I read this Business Insider story reported by MSN “Biden wants to address the housing shortage. He just called a White House meeting with builders and labor unions” I was appalled.
You see how this works? Start with a questionable premise and then report like it’s an agreed fact. Around here? It’s not.
Look: Everyone who wants a house (and is willing to work) already has a home. That’s the beauty of free markets. Everything is always priced to perfection.
Sure, the impact of CV-19 has driven up prices, and that can be interpreted as a shortage. But greed, maybe? You can see that much in the CNBC report a couple of months back Why the U.S. is facing a housing shortage.
What no one is mentioning is how extensibility works out. In other words, we are just on the leading edge of the Delta variant now. And from what I’m reading, the Lambda variant will be much worse.
I get the “leadership charade” and “do something, even if it’s wrong.”
But if Slow Joe and the Kamunist worried about Housing, they’d shut the southern border. And the might help-along regime change in Cuba. Because Elaine and I would be very interested in a waterfront home in a 51st state.
Policies – like demand hyping open borders – cause economic displacement.
You can’t blame investors and policy-makers for being confused. If America had a million less illegals, I assure you, business would be more tempered, housing bids less crazy. And the political correctness industries would slow.
Absent factories – and because we can’t seem to focus on self-sufficiency any longer than an ADHD crack addict – no one seems to recognize the collision of forces.
On the Inflationary side: The Fed’s serial re-borrowing keeps jamming up the National debt:
When word of the Biden “housing shortage” non-sequitur crossed, Lumber bumped up a bit. But the contract is up 3% this morning (to $552) which is still less than a year ago at this time.
If you want to watch flimflam’s, you’ve come to the right country.
Biden’s Credit Grab
The president seems to be taking credit with his “home building” grandstand. Figures out from Census today reveal the free market was already solving things:
Wanna bet the White House didn’t know this was coming out?
OBiden keeps flooding border states, though, while doing the same-old D.C. socialist-two-step: Mexico’s coronavirus death toll rises to 236,240 as cases rise. You bet, Joe, keep that border open. We’ll be watching the Phoenix housing bubble next Tuesday in the Case Shiller report for confirmation.
Pay serious attention to this hypocritical part: White House won’t commit to reopening northern border, despite announcement from Canada. Yeah – if you’ve got vax’ed, you can’t visit.
Bottom Line: Mexico is wide-open to border jumpers yet somehow we can’t commit to opening with Canada? (Our pet theory is there are too many dangerous privileged White people in Canada.)
Smile and bile department:
Toyota lost a customer: We dropped all interest in pro sports when football went political. And we’ve done the same thing with Toyota now as Toyota Pulls Its Olympics TV Ads in Japan Over Covid-19 Concerns. Dear TRO: As old Lexus owners, please stick to making good cars instead of bad politics. This kind of insanity is contagious! Thanks.
Another Publication we won’t buy: Megan Thee Stallion Becomes 1st Female Rapper On Sports Illustrated Cover, Fans Rave. Huh? Old school, here. With pro sports now more political than athletic, what’s the point? And say, how long before Playboy does a trans centerfold? What? Already? Back in 2017? Sooner than later, we figured. The Bunny and I were kicking this around…Playperson? Is the Ladies Home Journal now sexist, too? Oops! Early victim of gendercide: The last issue was published in 2016. This whole thing is nuts. Certifiable.
2 Shades of Justice: Florida man first to be sentenced on felony connected to Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Obstruction? In a public place? WTF? Gotta ask: How many sentenced from riots and obstructions when democrats were involved?
Flipping the Race Card again: Pentagon contractor investigating ‘extremism,’ says BLM web search raises concerns about White supremacy. WTF? Over? Key part: is about the “extremism analysis company” (getting tax dollars!!!!) whose “Founder has ties to Obama Foundation and other controversial groups…” says the report. Notice how disagreeing or doing research is now racism?
Speaking of Historical Revisionism: Did you see where Rep. Donalds: ‘Outraged but not surprised’ on ‘1619 Project’ founder praising Cuba’s communism? Good thing president nitwit is inviting UN “racism” Inquisitors to visit. Can’t have America running her/it’s/his own country, no sir. $2-ticket says more than half will come from socialist countries…
OK: Two 9-month cycles then: Massive Lockdowns And Many Vaccines Later, We Appear To Be Where We Were 18 Months Ago. Uh-huh.
Around the Ranch
True story: Elaine was over in the shop earlier this week working at the pottery wheel. Throwing and sculpting. Noticed her hair was “frizzier” than usual. Humidity. Blonde Brillo pad and a side of Van De Graf generator look.
Then a smile crossed my face: I’m so politically correct now! Above reproach! Looked like I married a Hairy Potter!
Dow set to pop 160’ish. CrimeCoins are down to $29,734 with our outlook of $28,000 coming into view. Still, we’re not in a REAL Depression until pension funds blow up. Keeping an eye in that direction. Think the market’s got troubles now? Wait for the real shit storm to show up. Foreplay. Just foreplay.
Write when you get rich,