Yes, we are going through a process right now of trying to discern the “most likely future” but we are doing so in an incredibly “noisy” environment.
It’s very, very easy to make a whole ton of money investing – IF you have a rock-solid idea about what the FUTURE will look like. Problem is: Many people who hold out “knowledge of the future” are seldom right much more than a Gaussian percent of the time. Which makes our filtration processes more difficult.
I mean, think about it: This morning with have a wide assortment of news that COULD be shaping the future. BUT we don’t (and won’t) know until the future actually arrives.
The good news for investors is this: IF you know where to look, THEN you can do a little better than chance. And a slight edge, over time, is all it takes to win Big.
The big “static crash” (to use an HF radio analogy) that we are working through presently is BREXIT.
In terms of digital signal filtering (or even extremely sharp analog filters) there is a problem to be found in the “ringing effect” following a large input. And yes, BREXIT is a large input, but it’s hard “to copy” (another radio term, sorry) whether there is meaningful information contained in some of the “ringing” – which the non-electronics type might see as the stories about additional countries leaving – or whether it is just normal “filter ringing.”
My Substitution Method of Learning says that once you know the form of knowledge from any one domain of study, it is oftentimes transferable – at least in form- to another.
With all of this in mind (if it’s not asking too much) consider the problem posed by this reader comment:
“How related to the Brexit is this story by Zerohedge?
“Futures Spike After Banks Unveil Tens Of Billions In Buybacks”
Who would coordinate such an event and were the banks given the money to do this by the Fed?
This is precisely the kind of thing we have been tracking over on the Peoplenomics side of the house. We will get a report this afternoon, likely after the close, which will disclose the updated Fed creation/pump rate for M1.
As I told you a month, or so, back: The Fed has tacitly endorsed the democratic ticket by jacking up the present M1 run rate to the vicinity of 13-17%. But what makes specific ascertainment somewhat complicated is the fact that M1 thrown quickly into the markets to forestall a global crash need not come out as a statistical revelation under perhaps a month (*maybe a bit longer) after the actual “crime” has been committed.
[Reader note: I have mixed feeling on whether massive money manipulation is a “crime” if it is not revealed to the public real-time on the one hand, but postpones the end of the financial world on the other…]
Thus, I would expect that in a month, or so, we will be able to see the M1 run rate jacked up to something like 18-20% and maybe even more.
This hysteresis (time lage between cause and effect) is used to great advantage by some. I sort of favored (until BREXIT) use of the 90-day Euro futures for a similar purpose (fortune telling) but that was off in the background as we’ve developed simpler methodologies that seem to work just fine.
BUT while we understand the likely structure of the US Bailout following BREXIT (yet to be revealed, but I think safely assumed, especially when you look at the injection and odd rally in the market the day before-hand) we still don’t know if that was a singular “static crash” of whether there are additional data hidden in the ringing.
All of which gets us to the matter of “What is the next data?” and it’s here our news analyst up in Winnipeg comes through:
“It seems counter-intuitive that a pair of whistle blowers to a haven’s tax avoidance scheme have been sentenced to jail terms by the Luxembourg justice system according to the BBC. The tiny country’s former leader, now the appointed head of the European Commission that effectively runs the EU, was allegedly not unknowing of the multi-national corporation tax avoidance schemes. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36662636
And if they knew it, seems more than likely that multiple key EU Officials not only knew of but would likely have been involved in the specific orchestration of selective enforcement policies. But that’s how shit rolls up top-side, ain’t it?
Why, these old boys, legardless (sic) of circumstances, should all set up “family foundations.” Go on the speaking tours, know what I mean?
Meantime, No Boris in Prime (minister) Time.
To Market, To Market
The market, needless to may will go up a fraction more before the 4th, but in coming weeks, we sort of hope for a quick return to the 1,970 (or slightly lower like 1,955) level of the S&P because in my work, a nice double-bottom to the present wave 4 (basis the 5 wave up-move that commenced in 2009) would set the stage for the final blow-off rally before Worldageddon in 2017-2018 At which time you are invited to watch the World bend over as the world kisses its financial a$$ good-bye.
I’ll be the nerdy dude in the corner with a collection of shorts…For this morning I just can’t picture a higher market right AFTER the holiday.
Plane Speaking Among Elites
Here we have the boss(ette) of the USDOJ *(Department of Just Us) meeting at an airport (and jet to jet) with the husband/spousal unit of the presumptive democratic high bidder for the Presidency.
This, while Loretta Lynch holds that such hubby-side chats will not influence her profound inaction on the as yet unfiled Clinton email charges. And I’m the pope.
Which is why we unabashedly refer to the Department of Just Us because it doesn’t look out for the interests of you and me.
Example #2:, the Lynch Mob is presently law and judge-shopping in order to find a work-around for the Obamanation’s being slapped-down by the Supremes on the matter of made-up immigration policy contrary to federal law and the intent of Congress.
We have the ideal elevator music for the DOJ picked out this morning, over here.
Need Still More Corruption?
What I recall, and correct me if I am wrong on this (which is possible barreling into 68), is that there were several attempts to organize the same kind of thing on the democratic side, but SHE was too busy playing front-runner – something which could still fall apart since Huma seems to be appearing on To Tell the Truth.
Music of the Republic
In passing, here’s a zillion dollar idea for you if you are an rising musical star: Remember the patriotic song (“America”) that begins “My Country t’is of Thee…”?
I’m thinking that ought to be remixed as a single – with new, more current lyrics. I’m thinking something like:
My Country Used to be
Great land of Liberty, to thee I sing.
Land where illegals hide
Land where Pres Kennedy died,
From every mountainside
Or something like that. Put me down as the co-author, thanks. I could use the royalties. I think done in a kind of a Gregorian chant with lots of pictures of urban decay it would make a hell of a Trump or Bernie song. (Reader note: I had to say Trump or Bernie to avoid the FEC democratic Star Chamber.)
Why, they could do a whole separate one on Syria. Except it would begin…
“This country used to be…
Neocons set it free,
And now it stings…
Land where Vlad Putin stopped
We need to put a rush on this because it refers to God and there is still time for President Useless to execufy around it.
(Did I take a double-dose of meds this morning, or just the fresh can of coffee kicking in?)
I’ve also got a remake of “Lizzie Border took an axe and gave her family 40 whacks…” but I’m saving that for Lizzie Warren’s VP run. Lizzie Warren took and axe and gave the Donald (yada yada). I’ll be auctioning those lyrics at Sotheby’s if I can. All on very collective museum/evidence-grade grade paper in 12.9 PX Times New Roman…
Meantime, Back in the Noise Floor
Oh, Thank God.
No. Seriously this kind of thing helps me understand opiate abuse.
Been a fine week so far. I’m going to go delete emails now. Ya’ll have a fine day.
Like we say here on the bridge of the StarWrek: Live wrong and prosper.