Swing Rally Friday – Circuit Breaker Monday?

Having figured out that investing can’t be done anymore, and Life is now all about Gambler’s Money Management, I haven’t particularly cared about playing this initial decline into Wave 3.

“Wave 3? Want to Explain, Ure?”

Let me roll out the white board, huff up some marker smell, and line out the bullet points of how all this came about this-a-way:

  • 1995 Ure begins his “dime store MBA.” Figures the numbers don’t work and the world will blow up in his lifetime.
  • 1998: Ure tried “academically active” on the old University of Colorado long waves (econ) group. Where he meets the consigliere (J.D. {tax attorney}, CPA, pilot, extra class ham) who shares his 1979 cycles work pointing to war with China before 2026.
  • 1998: Also meets Jas Jain, PhD (ex Cisco DSP whiz fellow) who in 2000 begins talking about his “six pack bond strategy” which worked out brilliantly.
  • Also in this period met and was tutored in the finer points of Elliott wave work by the late Robin Landry. Who was at Merrel when Bob Prechter and the rest of the “dream team” was there.
  • And then there’s my friend Ehor, who I worked with on the notion of an 83-year currency cycle upper bound in 2003.

So, you see, there’s a pretty neat “cast of characters who have all contributed mightily (and still do) to the thinking reflected here.

By the way, Jas has just (like us) concluded that the top of Wave 2 is likely in, and like The Economic Fractalist has also moved over to our view that the multimarket (cross-aggregate) top was posted July 31 of this year.  Jas is now doing a forward roll of Long Expiration Options on the short side, which we will get into tomorrow on the Peoplenomics side of the house.

Point is, we have been saying “next collapse” since we got the Housing bubble mostly right in 2008-2009.

“Enough!  Wave 3?”

Right, then.  R.N. Elliott – a legendary trader – came up with this and the Wiki entry here is worth concentrated study:

“In Elliott’s theory, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive, phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of five lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 13, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3, respectively. Corrective waves subdivide into three smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, and the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.”

What is not in the simple discussions is that Elliott waves are semi-predictable. That being the case, I tossed the rule set into a spreadsheet (which can still be downloaded from the Peoplenomics master index pages) and that is where the “halving of markets from present levels” came from as a prediction. See Thursday’s column.

As of this morning, we can (stepping back far enough) see that a possible USA fifth wave market peak passed November 8, 2021. Kicked off macro Wave 1 down.  The macro Wave 2 passed on July 31st of this year, having commenced from a low in 2022.

The “scary shit” now is that all the angst you are feeling now is only (likely) the beginning of a (iii) down within the (1) of the larger 3.  Which appears ghostly apparition-like in the lower right side of our Elliott and Trend channel work:

Depending on how good your visual cortex images math and charts, you should expect a minor rally in the present zone.  Because?

We have just come down from the (likely) Top of Wave 2 (from the spring 2022 low) and now over the next year, we will experience the full-frontal pain of Wave 3 down.  Which (says theory) should deliver halved market levels within a year.  Really smart guys (like Jas Jain) know that picking the exactly right low “…is a fool’s errand…”  Instead, buying long expiration options, you wait for the market to come to you.

Having said that, however, there’s the side discussion of the existential aspect.  In other words, in 2024, wife Elaine and I may not buy “homeowner’s insurance.”  Because we could buy a simple liability policy for pennies on the dollar – and we’re not sure which insurance companies will survive.  There is still the commercial real estate crisis ahead.

In such a calamitous world, it becomes a riff off the old commodity trading issue:  Who stands for good delivery?

The question is not moot around this site: Insurance companies do fail at the heart of economic crisis.  Remember 2008 and AIG?

“As a result, AIG’s credit rating was downgraded and it was required to post additional collateral with its trading counter-parties, leading to a liquidity crisis that began on September 16, 2008, and essentially bankrupted all of AIG.”

Insurance is a bet you never want to have to cash in.  However, when there is systemic risk afoot (and if like us you haven’t had a mortgage in 3-decades or longer) why not consider self-insurance buying only products you need? (General liability and auto, for example).

Final economic point:

I can’t say this often enough: The short-term stock market picture is little more than a gamble. (See Samuelson, et al and take a “random walk” on Wall St.)

Long ago, I left “conventional economics” thinking. Concluding that if I can make carefully-selected, index-based, 2 percent gains every week (not too hard with basic swing trading skills) that 2 percent weekly fetches a return of, um. sitting down?  280 percent (or 2.8 times) per year.

The other piece of the gambling puzzle (remember, it’s not an investment, it’s noise gambling) is you have to get sharp enough on your trading tools to enter trades often enough, but kill any trade that drops more than 50-bucks.

If a typical trade wins $400 then, you don’t really care if you make a couple of “false starts” and lose $100.  You’re still “on plan.”

This is a by-God nutty way to approach things.  But we have kept fairly meticulous track via our Aggregate Index over the years.  At the height of the market in 2000, our Ag Index was 13,091.93.

A side venture now as we head to the Minneapolis Fed website and calculate an “inflation factor” to see what the equivalent would be in today’s watered down with debt FRN paper.  We will slide a bunch of zeros off this because of limits in their online calculator.

Bringing the zeros back, the “breakeven aggregate” is 23,130, call it.  As of this morning, the pre-open real number was 36,977.  What’s wrong with a 59.86 percent gain? Well. that is a real (purchasing power parity) gain of a shade over 2 percent per year. Remember, this is over 23 years. And I, for one, and not interested.

It’s hard to make an intelligent “investment decision” when the inflation and real gains are confabulated into a sales pitch for a financial product.  I prefer playing in the casino where I can take my money off the table any time and walk out.

Few economists will underscore the “can’t take your neck out of the noose” angle to many of their products. But “penalties for early withdrawal” are as good as telling me (at least this is what I hear) “We keep make money regardless of whether you do, or not.

Pappy didn’t raise no fool.

“Which way is the market going?”

Back to our view of differential moving averages.  To support my swing trading habit, I like the 2-13 which earlier today was looking like this.

I did tell you last week this was the probable direction of things.

If you doubt it, go see where the DIFMA was pointing last week. See the heading “Longer Term?” in the Sept. 15th column here.

Like betting on runs in a casino, but the bet can be pulled at any time.  Anyone can win, but not based on economics (per se).  No sir, this is regular old Frontier Sports Book kind of thinking.

As my handicapping instructor used to teach me when I’d complain about a predicted win not coming in:  “Maybe the pony didn’t read the Racing Form?

Markets are a lot like that.  He who bets and runs away, lives to bet another day.  In the meantime, has 30 acres, a bunch of toys and an ex-bunny.  Someone has to figure it out besides me, though…

Whew!  Too much coffee?

World War 3 Check

The War Party has to be in hog heaven today: Russia bombs NATO infrastructure across Ukraine: Logistics hubs, mercenary bases, depleted uranium weapons and ammunition depots on fire.

All the drones going to Ukraine are not sitting idly by: Ukraine missile strike hits Russia’s key navy base in Sevastopol, Crimea, Russian official says – CBS News

Meantime in the wild (north) west of there: Poland announces stop to supplying arms to Ukraine, says modernizing its own weapons.

With arms depleting due to UKR, the industrial West is still trying to regain dominance over Niger: Sanctions deepen economic misery in post-coup Niger | The Citizen

It’s even more ludicrous in Gabon where France is trying to get back in bed with local leadership.  How? Gabon: Ousted President Bongo’s Son, Associates Charged With Treason, Corruption (leadership.ng) But charged by whom? The new government or the ex-colonial power? Hmm.

One reason we are contemplating a short position over the weekend is Taiwan.  Taiwan says Chinese movements ‘abnormal’, flags amphibious drills | Reuters.  One of these days, the ships and aircraft simply won’t turn around and it will be game on.  And did you see this Opinion: It doesn’t take an Agatha Christie detective to work out something’s up in Xi’s China | CNN?  (Duh)

Over here you can look in on Taipei weather which has a lot of sun coming this weekend and into Monday. You just know China’s president Xi has got his mets and weps people on hot standby.

Of course, when that happens it will be game-on with the supply chain from Asia.  Which, we see in latest Port Figures things are still mucking along:  As in Long Beach:

On the other hand, Los Angeles was up a shade:

Combined inbound was 768,660 versus last year’s 788,131 so this year is running about 2-1/2 percent under last year.

Be Distracted Dept.

OK, it’s not all about food, water, prepping, money, and time off to enjoy it all, is it?  Not with stories like these making the rounds, for damn sure:

Partisanship over financial common sense? Trump urges government shutdown in unlikely bid to ‘defund’ his criminal prosecutions. Um, no.

Speaking of stormy, though: Expect flash flooding on the Eeek! coast as tropical cyclone Sixteen comes a-knocking:

Mogul Departures: Bloomberg Outlines Succession Plan for Bloomberg L.P. – DNyuz  And check ANDREW NEIL: Can the global empire Rupert Murdoch built up over 70 years survive without its buccaneering, establishment-baiting founder at the helm? | Daily Mail Online?  Are they leaving because of age or to get out of Dodge?

Even fools can be Fooled dept: Warren Buffett’s Silent Warning: 147 Billion Reasons Investors Should Tread Cautiously | The Motley Fool

Labor unrest rolls along as we prepare to slide into the Depression 2 part of this play: Writers Strike: Second Day Of Talks With Studio CEOs Ends; Progress Made – Deadline. Meantime, the strike headaches are likely to grow. UAW strike against Detroit Big Three automakers could expand.

Around the Ranch: Fajita Friday

A little mood setter from Quintana Roo to go with that shot of silver for breakfast?

For whatever reason this week, I’ve had a craving for fajitas, so once all the work is done, we will be sizzling up beef and shrimp FJ’s.

Have a great weekend, and let’s see if the world can keep a lid on things.  We’d place the odds uncomfortably close to 50-50 this weekend, but not much left we can do but get another barrel of diesel, or two put back…

Write when you get rich,


67 thoughts on “Swing Rally Friday – Circuit Breaker Monday?”

  1. George,

    Good call for the Friday relief rally.

    For the 18 August Wilshire 6/15/15 fractal series and for the last 15 day subfractal 3 starting on 15 Sept, this is
    day 6 of a 3/4 of 6-8/8-6 day series or 3/4 of 7/4 of 7 day series {the latter which would be identical to the 15 day subfractal 2 starting on 25 August (3/7/7 days.}
    Might expect circuit breakers in the last 7 days of subfractal 3 of the 3/7/7 day series.

        • George,
          Use the 4 hour unit Wilshire composite chart.

          Friday, today will end a 1.6x Fib growth time frame of (8) 4-hour unit, for the 9AM 15 Sept (5) 4-hour unit subfractal 1. In a collapsing market, 1.6x times the base (subfractal 1) is the usual maximal time limit for subfractal 2 lower high valuation growth. (Not trading advice, but concur with Urban Survival’s today and yesterday post assessments.)

        • George, the Wilshire composite ended near the low of the day, but the 8th 4-hour unit Of subfractal 2 starting 0930 19 September contained a Friday rally lower lower high (weak lower high valuation growth and telltale of what’s to come).

          Many (most) people reason by post hoc ergo propter hoc thinking. Maybe the fallout of the market collapse will be attributed to the small minority of congressional and senator crazies who are effectively sabotaging America’s institutional norms(imperfect but the least worst, and made inoperative by out-of-bell-shaped-curve individuals – e.g., no budget and delayed senior military officer promotions). The QE/QT asset-debt macroeconomic system operates in a self assembly, mathematical, and mechanistic fashion and is independent of the news-identified usual-suspect events.

          Nevertheless, with standard thought processing, the congressional anarchists could be labelled as the chaos that caused the valuation drop.

  2. My “flyer” I took last week on November SPY 435 Puts when my 3/13 averages crossed turned out quite nicely. I closed out on the close yesterday and now waiting for a small rally. Thanks for the tip. I can afford reading George Ure for another year.

  3. It is strange how a word or phrase can make you think of something long ago. You wrote “huff up some marker smell” and it made me think of being a kid in school and getting a copy from the good old mimeograph machine. I loved that smell but hadn’t thought of it in years. It really was a better time then in many ways. Oh well we have do play with the hand we are dealt.

  4. Pass the pipe Tex, time for coot to get roasted.

    Yesterdays action in SPY produced an fugly candle..how fugly? A double bottom fugly! Coot no likey double bottoms, will not ignore warning..”Danger danger Crash Robinson?
    Sure if Ure long equities of speculative nature.
    Currently positioned as Defensive, commodity-dividend payers, Oil, NatGas and BTC, big play NG.

    Winter comes and EU will be freezing their collective socialists asses off. So F-ing green the “surrender frogs” have to burn Coal this year – bwahahahahah. I know lets throw Greta in the Boiler, sure she is worth 1 or 2 BTU’s.

    No worries the future G – We got the bible and we got Faith !
    Exodus 20:3-5
    3 “Worship no god but me.-meaning there are other Gods besides Him you can choose to Worship

    4 “Do not make for yourselves images of anything in heaven or on earth or in the water under the earth. 5 Do not bow down to any idol or worship it, because I am the Lord your God and I tolerate no rivals. I bring punishment on those who hate me and on their descendants down to the third and fourth generation.

    He is full of hate, not Love dont believe me: look around you and be amazed what this “love” has created…

    True God will challenge You, he wants to see from what are you made off, do yuo belong, do you deserve to walk among the Gods-plural…

    This is why the Gate is narrow and only a few are accepted into the True Kingdom of Heaven

    If you do not understand the importance of the number seven you will live in a world between the number eleven and that my friend is a false made-up heaven.-HappyParrot

    Like I mentioned earlier – “See ya at the turn”,- we is there now, but that “turn” looks and feels more like deadly curves. Know the coot cannot resist “deadly curves”..Kowabunga time.


  5. “For whatever reason this week, I’ve had a craving for fajitas, so once all the work is done, we will be sizzling up beef and shrimp FJ’s.”

    Did you gain back the 20 pounds?

  6. Regarding Clif High’s “ejecta” there is a film titled Ejecta.

    “Filmmaker Joe Sullivan becomes excited when he receives an email from famously reclusive alien abductee William Cassidy. Believing that Cassidy wishes to grant him an exclusive interview, Sullivan travels to the address given. Along the way, he sees military vehicles, including tanks. When Sullivan arrives, Cassidy is uncooperative. Cassidy claims to have never heard of Sullivan and to have never sent an email, though he eventually relents to an interview. After briefly attempting to describe the psychological torture he suffered from his abduction, Cassidy explains that an upcoming solar flare, and the resulting coronal mass ejection, will disrupt all electronic devices on Earth.”

    Ejecta Official Trailer


    • Yeah, but in real life that doesn’t happen until the earth sun (and I forget the other planet_ which aligns april 7-9 2024. We got bigger problems going on short term

      • Around 8 years ago, before I retired, my department was tasked to evaluate the security of SCADA systems in the 30 or so manufacturing plants in the USA.

        After a few months we just gave up. Decades of equipment installed and upgraded, moved etc. No records kept at the engineering level no way to fix. Like Y2K. Sitting in a room full of Big Blue 12/31/1999 waiting for midnight.

  7. Thought provoking again as usual George. My second 28 year career was with an investment firm and while I did soak up quite a bit of market knowledge there the most important thing I learned was I would best be served to let the experts handle the reins while I watch over their shoulder and immediately ask lots of Why’s if I did not understand or agree with something while I stuck to the hands on side of things.
    While my financial advisor is top notch we don’t always agree. I recently overrode a decision of his and after our last check in it seems to have been the right one. While knowing it was never intended as investment advice I had based my decision on several thoughts and ideas I have picked up from you and the pool of astoundingly intelligent commenters here. Thanks to all.
    I am far from a rich man but I am content with where I am tromping through the cow poop and playing with my toys, which by the way I have 3 ladders, near new and barely used going out today to a friend at the MFA. Don’t want to test my fate anymore.
    Stay safe everyone. There is a lot of evil running loose in our world.

  8. “Jas is now doing a forward roll of Long Expiration Options on the short side, which we will get into tomorrow on the Peoplenomics side of the house.”
    I shall be awaiting this post…, like to hear someone else’s views / opinion.., other than mine.

    • Check your email – G2 is up that way and knows pro fire guys who can do gutters… offshift firemen are great do-everything’s to have around when you need ’em

      • The misses has already found someone. Seems she is adamant on me not getting above ten feet on a ladder. I rarely comment, or complain – but when I told her about my ‘reluctance’, she took it as “a sign”. Guess she likes me just a bit.
        – Thanks for the thought, though.

      • This commentary seems so strange. I’ve no problems with other families figuring out acceptable/non-acceptable risks, but I’ve never in my life had women worry about me on a ladder. It’s almost as though I’m entertainment for them, regardless of what happens. Maybe they think I’ll bounce.

        • After 35 years of marriage, I think our “others” may be concerned our warranty is up.

          Our ladies are just trying to limp and nurse us along ‘til the end.

          I personally expected Valhalla. The probability of experiencing the indignity of old age, increases daily.

  9. ” UAW strike against Detroit Big Three automakers could expand.”

    Of course they have to move together and expand. They’re not relevant and shouldn’t be here.

    The desperation shows when people say Detroit “three” but there’s really only TWO. We all pretend there is three. Potemkin manufacturing.

    There’s an LG factory in Tennessee. Let’s start calling LG America’s refrigerator company.

    Heck, NORK would invade SORK if not for America. That makes Samsung an American company. America is back in the TV game as the world’s largest!

    Think of the phrase “World’s Breadbasket”. America, right?

    Bread is made of wheat.

    “China is the world’s largest producer of wheat with 17% of the global total in the first two decades of the 21st century at 2.4 billion tonnes.”

    The reckoning will be brutal for all the pretending. Or maybe the show will go on for another generation.

    110 years ago +/- it was a different story.

    By Carl Sandburg

    Hog Butcher for the World,
    Tool Maker, Stacker of Wheat,
    Player with Railroads and the Nation’s Freight Handler;
    Stormy, husky, brawling,
    City of the Big Shoulders:


  10. George
    There are three sources of Woo that I follow on a regular basis.
    No. 1, George’s Long Wave economic trends.
    No. 2, Remote Viewing such as what Dick Algier and company produce.
    No.3, Clif High’s data reduction of emotional values to ferrite out future events using available writings by the public et al.

    From the last two sources a pivotal event in American future history has emerged. Both remote viewers and Clif High have matching data points that indicate an attack on the continental United States will happen in the near future. The exact location of this attack has not been determined. The magnitude of the attack is greater than the 9/11 attack. Further work is being done to obtain as much data about this attack as possible. The attackers may try to disguise the attack as a meteor impact. Directed energy weapons may be involved in this.
    Don’t laugh it off. This type of information gathering work!

      • Is it even possible to protect electronics and/or magnetic/nand data from such an intense event – natural or otherwise? Faraday cages certainly help, but if the field is too intense or sharp, who knows?

        • Just remember that (“prepper” BS aside), what a Faraday cage is, is a big air-dielectric capacitor, with your stuff kept inside, and insulated from the inner plate. Travel back in your mind to Enemy of the State. Brill’s warehouse hideout is a Faraday cage. I assume the producer employed an EE as a consultant, because every time I see that scene, I notice subtle little things that’re physically and technically accurate, which almost no-one would ever notice — like there being no physical connection between the “stuff in the cage” and the outside world.

          Things like that “hook” me — like the horizontal white raster-band across the diner’s TV, in Twister — not something the tech consultant had to include; not something the vast majority of viewers would either notice or know the significance of, and not something anyone would miss, if it weren’t there, but they inserted it anyway.

    • I watched that video with Clif and Dick this morning. They identified two possible sites for an attack that could maybe be disguised as a meteor attack but Clif left off his possible third site.

      Since watching that I have been wondering if the Yellowstone Super Volcano could be the site of the attack. That way they don’t even have to pretend it’s a meteor.

    • Disagree that it has to be an “attack”.

      Nature over the many years the earth has existed has thrown curve ball after curve ball at the planet, it not only took down the dinosaurs from their loft perch but also reduced the world wide human population to just 10,000 or so souls a few ten thousand years ago.

      For many years people were saying many of the visions and references in the Bible HAD to indicate nuclear weapons … but as the work of various geologists with their new theories has come to the fore more and more people are recognizing that it would be NATURE that does the.

      The RV’rs and Cliff’s work “could” indicate a man driven event … but it could also indicate a nature driven event.

      With a man driven event it is possibly changable. With a nature driven event it is unlikely to be changable.

      Only time will tell what type of event it truly is.

  11. George
    I just invented a new term.

    It’s not AI, artificial intelligence.

    It’s AI, A**hole intelligence.

    I hereby claim that I invented this term on this date. Just like I invented Going Postal decades ago.

    You watch, this term will start popping up as companies claim they are using artificial intelligence but their not. Their just using an old program that is full of bugs.

    Or did somebody beat me to it?

  12. The question today for the rogues gallery – are Humans capable of emitting NRG. Like coherent beam of light, or Qi as the case may be.

    Human beings are Light Beings . See wanderingjew guy for details regards Melanin. Once a firm grasp of Melanin is had, You will have perfect understanding of Mr. Nicola Teslas’ quote “Black is the true color of Light”.

    “Dark Stars” – no not the anode like twinkly things in the night sky plowing thru space, dragging their planets behind.
    Female Priestess’s of the Elohim were called Dark Stars. The source of all the magic in this world from day one – yerp Singing the Clay, Singing the Stones…you name it the “Nins” were responsible..Science, Agriculture, Genetics. Without them(view of life) and monoatomic Gold, the El or Annuna/Annunaki on Earth could/can not handle the Ki of Earth. Think white powder found all over ancient SA gold mining werx.
    Signing the Clay is still done today, in certain parts…stirring water in one direction while “singing” a tone that rises up the scale, and switching directions of stir while singing a tone going down the scale. Easy charms that work. Testing side by side plots easy next time you plant, if there is a next time.
    What with all the “carbuncles” being brought on line recently, its wonder we haven’t had a global weeny roast yet..

    From Russia with Love, pay attention to word “INVISIBLE”
    “While the Peresvet “blinds” the enemy’s systems, the Zadira burns them down. The weapon can hit an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at a distance of up to 5 km. During testing, a drone flying 5 km away was struck by the Zadira and burned out within five seconds.
    “Russia’s Zadira complex is already in use,” Knutov said. “It is capable of operating on unmanned aerial vehicles. (…) Such complexes are installed, as a rule, on the platform of an armored car, thus they have a certain protection from enemy shrapnel and bullets. At the same time, they are practically silent. The laser beam is invisible, it is only in science fiction films that a laser beam is shown piercing the sky. In reality, the laser beam is invisible, its speed is equal to the speed of light, so the target is practically hit, consider it instantly. The cost of such a laser beam pulse is extremely low compared to anti-aircraft missiles.”
    “[The Zadira] is intended specifically for the zone of a special military operation, to combat drones, primarily aircraft type, and partly quadcopters. (…) And in order to destroy such a drone, of course, you need a certain guidance system. Therefore, there is an optical-electronic station; it detects the drone, takes it for automatic tracking, then the laser turns on directly and literally burns through the body of the drone. If the laser beam hits the video camera, the matrix is burned out in literally one or two seconds. And again, the drone actually loses its functions.”
    The Zadira could help combat enemy drones and not waste expensive missiles of Russia short-to-medium range air defense systems. Even though laser weapons are a technologically complex product, the cost of their shot is significantly lower than that from an anti-aircraft missile system (SAM). Moreover, the laser beam reaches the target almost instantly and cannot be intercepted”.

    Cheers homegamers, BTC failed to break 50/128/200 dma’s. Downside action ahead – worse case $15k . Never short BTC, so popcorns it is foreseeable future-even “cosensio” is saying lower.

    Whats in Ure tunnel, vision? ?


  13. I didn’t think this morning’s bump-up would last – Dow just went negative from being up over 100. Good lunch money – still not too sure about holding over the weekend, though.

    • Right there with out – took a $120 lunch trade and waiting to see which way it jams at the close. If up. I might risk the short. It is, after all, only money, lol

  14. We tried once to get insurance on our main house but the insurance guy said as long as there was knob and tube electrical lines in the house he couldn’t insure it.

    Still have k&t in the house but less than back then after one renovation.

    I did have insurance on the house in town for a couple of years but when the agent couldn’t finagle the fact that it was vacant any more the premium went up $600 or more and I said “no thank you”. I wonder about the idiots in the neighborhood and we’ve had a window broken but nothing that was even worth the deductible. Now that our daughter is living in it I may check on the premium again but, with inflation, it may not matter.

    I marvel at the amount of money we HAVEN’T spent on this kind of insurance over the years. It’s kept a roof over our head and food on the table.

    • On the Big Island we are divided into geologic ‘Lava Zones’.
      Zone 1 = “May erupt at any time” (Like Leilani Estates in 2018)
      Zone 2 = “Subject to possible Lava downflow”
      The list goes on to #8 in varying degrees of threat. Major insurance companies will not touch Zones 1 & 2. The State has stepped in and sponsored insurance for these ‘high risk’ zones… at an appreciable price. I am at Lava Zone 2 outer limits. Two blocks away at the edge of the subdivision is Lava Zone 3. My neighbor here in #2 has a mortgage, so is forced to buy insurance. He pays $350/month for State sponsored home/fire insurance. Gads! I can’t afford that… paid cash for the volcano ranch and self-insured (fire extinguishers!!) I do have a million $ liability insurance that costs me $400/year. And to confirm zone 2, I am built atop the Lava flow of 1840.

      Some business owners have gotten risk insurance from Lloyds of London, who are not ‘enrolled’ in this state. Local business in the village burned down accidentally a few years back, and had to sue Lloyds for the $6 million owed. I think they are still waiting.

    • “knob and tube electrical lines in the house he couldn’t insure it.”

      That’s how .gov will get us all on electric stoves.

      People say America is capitalist but .gov will command insurers not to insure houses w/gas stoves or will remove the .gov bailout backstop for the insurer if they do insure homes with gas stoves.

      I mentioned the DoE is giving the ‘auto manufacturers’ money to retool for EVs. .gov is commanding what should be built, EVs and electric stoves.

      America has a command economy but people call it capitalist.

      • We have a gas heated house and it is cheap heating. I don’t see how people with electric heat pay the bills unless they are very new houses with updated insulation. I wonder if the gov will target us, too – AND, of course, Texas uses gas to generate 61% of its electricity.

  15. OOOPS…………..
    we have two gents living in our two spare rooms.. LOL LOL LOL anyway.. took them to a winter coat give away.. they give winter coats and winter snow boots.. anyway.. at one of the tables was a pile of small books the constitution.. LOL LOL LOL LOL….
    I off handedly ask.. do you have about three thousand of them.. I need a bunch.. they said yes.. why did I need so many.. I said.. I want to send them to those morons in Washington DC all our congress and our administration that doesn’t seem to know any of it.. but then they don’t read anything anyway why would they want to read the one document they all keep trashing… LOL LOL LOL only to look up and see.. two of our members of congress standing right there next to the young lady I was talking to LOL LOL LOL LOL
    OOPS.. should have looked up first LOL LOL LOL

    • Good on you Loob!
      Next time, smile and reach out for a handshake. Grab the offered hand and pull-yank as hard as you can towards you. At the same time as yanking, swinging with everything you got, Ure fist straight at the offending piece of fecal matters’ throat..hard as you can. As the other POS stands mouth agape, spin Ureself around roundhouse style, so Ure flying fist (yanking hand) meets POS#2 jaw. Shouldnt take but about 15 seconds tops. Oh yeah dont forget sneeze first – so it looks like an accident (plausible deniability).

      Next time they see you coming thru – they will be saying “Stick out Ure “can”, here comes the Garbage Man!”

  16. In response to a comment from a couple of days ago..,
    In simple terms…,
    I have never agreed with the term “Limited Nuclear Strike” against a foreign power. Limited? No such thing. That foreign power is gonna strike back, any and every way it can. While one side may strike with three, or four nukes., as a warning of what is to come., the other side is going to retaliate with their own – and probably even more., to show that they too, can play that game. And the chances of a “limited strike” escalating from there are pretty good. The World in general may cry “Stop!” – but the military mind-set and self preservation of the two countries will more than likely take hold and eliminate any logic., and how many other ‘foreign powers’ will join in to help ‘their side’ ? Do the two initial countries strike back at them as well? Yep. No good deed will go unpunished.
    Limited? I seriously doubt it.

    • Putin is just waiting for the USA to act so that they can retaliate back.. I also think they are waiting… Biden has opened the borders to anyone crossing into the country.. most of these are let loose and we don’t have a clue where they have gone. Are they positioning themselves… they get help from our government to subsist.. IF.. there is an army sneaking into our country like they said they would.. then they are getting in place.. Antifa and BLM demonstrated how easily the USA could be taken.. even though that all appeared as sanctioned destruction by our own government.. it also shows how vulnerable we are..
      that once their army is inside and positioned.. then light up the world with conventional weapons.. and take the USA from within the country..
      and selling out the big oligarchs for just pennies on the dollar over ukraine and using our strategic reserves in the process has weakened us.. if they have the capabilities to take over our fighter jets.. remotely.. they won’t have to use nukes.. in the meantime.. they are allowing us to back ourselves into a corner.. The poison pawn trap
      take the grid down and it is over.. take it down in winter and after the majority of the citizens die from starvation and freezing.. they will look at the chinese or russian saviors as saints come to help..

      the old story of the girl friend and dog in the trunk of a car.. we would be the dog eager and thankful for being rescued.. the ones in the dumbs would be easy targets for the occupiers..

  17. “Elaine and I may not buy “homeowner’s insurance.” Because we could buy a simple liability policy for pennies on the dollar ”

    I wish I could do that.. from the 28-6th of every month..I have to have over two grand in the bank to cover home owners and car insurance.. and our security monitoring systems cost.. on set incomes.. this is a big deal.. it is over seventy five percent of our expenses.. and that doesn’t count home taxes.. I have to come up with almost four grand real soon like.. god would I love to live in Texas LOL LOL land of the low tax rates.. our taxes was just shy two grand then they doubled them this year..

  18. “One of these days, the ships and aircraft simply won’t turn around and it will be game on. And did you see this Opinion: It doesn’t take an Agatha Christie detective to work out something’s up in Xi’s China | CNN? (Duh)”

    Notice how Kim in NK is being kind of quiet.. none of the weekly we hate you speeches.. the secretive meeting with Putin.. the alliance with China…Knowing what we do know.. about how the oligarchs have tried to destroy NK.. and the growing ties with China and Russia that they may let Kim be the one to give the come to arms chant.. I say watch kim in nk.. If they start acting then all these other countries that are sitting at their borders waiting to go to action will happen at one time…Products from the countries that signed agreements with Russia and China will end immediately ..and the big IF.. they had hardwired programming in the chips we use in our systems that would allow them to take command.. then we are screwed.. in twenty ten.. they took over all cell phone cameras and microphones.. all baby monitors.. etc.. I believe that all was just to show us their capabilities.. about the same time there was a container ship that refused to unload until they were paid in gold .. then we had the port deals.. no this has been brewing for a long time.. When it unfolds and we appear like the keystone cops I believe that taiwan rather than let their country be destroyed will fold and sign an agreement with China..right now all destruction has been on other peoples soil not our own.. the terrorist activities of BLM and Antifa though did one thing that most haven’t considered.. even though it appeared to be a congressionally sanctioned attack on the us cities.. using a death of someone that commited a crime as the reasons.. it did something else.. it showed the world and all our enemies both foreign and domestic just how easy the USA can be taken.. the whole country was in turmoil over the riots.. Law enforcement and even the national guard was unable to contain it.. now with millions of illegals crossing the borders sanctioned by our administration and even assisted … where did they go are the ones sent as secret army situating themselves into position to disrupt and destroy.. one one thousandth of a percent would make quite an army to contend with along with a failing infrastructure a grid designed to benefit a few at the top and fragile to attack . If this unfolds the way it could the USA would go down in history along side the legends of Troy..

  19. George. I missed “World Peace Day” yesterday. Could have sworn there would be some parades or marching bands but no luck. There were some lively demonstrations facing off against each other across the country for and against transgender studies in schools but nothing on Global peace.

    Perhaps 2024.

  20. lol,

    funny the feeling I get from reading today Urbansurvival is a lot different than an old meditation book that fell out of a box this morning and opened.

    which today’s random book, falling out of a box and opening up to a page within title read, ” Hitting The Limitless Lode”.

    I will choose the random book falling out a box for my personnal outlook verses the bette than chance 50/50 outlook.

    I have found often times, when books randomly fall out of boxes and open to a random page, it’s not by chance and is the truth as relates to me.

    okay DUDE, cool. The Limitless Lode it is. thanks!

    Hey George, did you know Heavy Metal magzine issue 320 in April of 2023, is the very last issue. 45 years in publication? something like 47.5 thousand pages in total.

    very sad to hear about the end of an icon. Heavy Metal was the coolest thing as a young teenager prior to invention of pong and the berth of the internet.

    well, on to see about the Limitless Lode this weekend.

    being a miner, there is

    The Mother Lode!

    and there is

    The Limitless Lode.

  21. When I added the garage on to the house, I built an improvised scaffold around the perimeter, and worked everything off of it. I used much of that lumber for wind bracing in the attic.
    The house, and garage, have survived two low number tornadoes with minimal damage. Once you get above EF-3, having anything left is the luck of the draw. I will be keeping up the home insurance policy.

  22. George …

    You have a WILD FIRE RISK in your area.

    When was the last time a wild fire came through you area and burned out all the ground clutter that had accumulated for ?decades?

    If you get rid of the PINE TREES near your house it might survive a Wild Fire blowing through the woods … if not, well then it’s a gonner.

    Just a thought wrt house insurance.

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