Football in a sec. Jobs Out: Trump Bump Toast:
We’ve been thinking things were headed this way for several weeks, but here’s the data hot off the BLS website:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing.
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.5 million, edged up in January. The impact of the partial federal government shutdown contributed to the uptick in these measures. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 175,000. This figure includes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey.
Our quickie analysis:
1. Was there a war I missed, or something? The civilian population used was down 649,000. What there a Rapture, or something?
2. With the total number employed down 251-thousand it’s hard to see how stocks will be able to make any plans that will boost earnings, except (gulp!) by beginning to lay people off, which we expect to begin dropping out of headlines in coming weeks.
Skip the press release lingo – go to the data!
See? 251-thousand fewer working.
Toss in that in the annual confessional, the CES Birth Death model dropped 2.9 plus million jobs and yessir, this ‘un juss sucks.
With the Dow +75, why is it we wonder if the Plunge Team is out and about? S&P futures were up only 4 and the techs were down almost 20…
I like to think in terms of “paint the tape” on days like this.,..broadermeasures may be more realistic than narrow measures…
Now, Let’s Talk Football
There was a dandy article overnight about how “Stock-market bulls want Los Angeles Rams to beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.”
Unfortunately, to us it appears the Federal Reserve has just called New England.
How do I figure that?
Pay attention: When the Federal Reserve wouldn’t mind the market going up, they crank up the money creation rate in the very short-term data. When they think the markets are about right, money creation goes back to somewhere around neutral.
BUT, when the market is looking manically bullish, they take away some of the punch bowls by dialing back the ease with which money is available. Slow money creation and guess what? Rates firm up a bit, cost of borrowing for the Big Players go up, which tends to tamp-down some of the speculation.
Now, for the purpose of trying to “eyeball” how all this works, we don’t need to “call in the chain gang to measure.” Nope. All we need to do is to take a stab at where would “place the ball” if the Fed was totally neutral.
Think of it this way: Let’s say the real inflation rate is running about 3%. That’s how much the purchasing power of the dollar is being watered down in order to make the Federal Debt numbers work, pay bond holders, and so forth.
But, the Fed also needs to put something down for real growth. While the government shutdown will have some impact, a sense is that real growth will come in around 2-percent.
Now add ’em up: About 5 percent, though mere mortals like you (and maybe me, but I’m working on that, lol) will never have access to the kind of computational horsepower the Fed does. This is a SWAG (simple wild-ass-guess.)
Now we go to the latest data on money creation and what’s a-slosh if that’s a word.
In the period ending November 30, or what the Fed called “to December 2019” the rate of M1 (cash and equivalents) was going up 5.7 percent annualized when you look at the three month window. M2 was going up 6 percent.
As you then move on to the Table 2 Data in the H.6 Money Stocks report, you will see there has been a financial “mood shift” going on. For the 3-months ending January 22, 2019, the M1 creation rate was down to 4.1 percent (annualized off the 3 month rate) and the M2 was back to 5.0 percent.
Does this mean the Fed has, in effect, supposed that a New England win is in the cards?
We think so. In fact, we can also see it in some of our charts which we will roll with in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report for subscribers.
Does that mean it will happen, as this data suggests?
No: The Fed is as bad at “predicting Super Bowl” outcomes by looking at their Money Stocks reports, as they are at maintaining the purchasing power of the US dollar. Which, in case you didn’t know, buys only 4-cents on the dollar compared to what it did in 1913.
Most people simply can’t understand that “Prices going up” is simply the other side of “Money’s buying power” is going down.
But, then again, most people think that Great Depressions only tear down the rich. Again, wrong-o-nomics! Depressions are about burning the made-up money and to do that requires the wholesale destruction of savings.
Tragically, not just of the Rich.
Pandering to the Phonetards
It’s OK for the Fed to get things wrong. Congress has ’em beat by a country mile, ever since they abdicated to the bankers and corporate masters when the Gold and Silver standards were abandon.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has, in our view, gone a long way toward pushing the financially ignorant class (90 percent of Americans) over to the “Money For Nothing” (Get your kicks for free) class. Leaving America in Dire Straits. BTC’s are rolling into paper fiat at 1 to 3427 ratio as you much.
When we read how “Rep. Ilhan Omar calls for sharp tax increases on the wealthy: ‘We’ve had it as high as 90 percent‘” it occurred to us we might have been transported to another dimension overnight. Is this (radical) woman maneuvering to be Bernie’s running mate on the Wild and Crazy side of the democrat party, or is it just that a Centrist like Howard Schultz (who we figure might win) would just make too much sense?
Why, make the tax rates high enough for the rich and keep whittling down the local tax limit (from $10,000 in Tax Year 2018) and we could turn America into a New Sudan yet. Leaving the border open would help move that along, too…
Another “Middle” Man?
‘Together, America, We Will Rise.’ Cory Booker Launches 2020 Campaign. But before you get too jacked on his bid, here’s a Google search that you may want to study.
Polar vortex death toll rises to 21 as US cold snap continues. Warming next week many places.
Jim Stone Rocks the Border
Credit where due, for reporting done on “10 U.S. Code Â§ 284” which you can find on the Cornell Legal Information Institute’s online collection of federal laws.
The catchy part to us?
(b)Types of Support for Agencies of United States.—The purposes for which the Secretary may provide support under subsection (a) for other departments or agencies of the Federal Government or a State, local, or tribal law enforcement agencies, are the following:
(blah, blah, blah until we come down to this part, #7 under B:
“(7)Construction of roads and fences and installation of lighting to block drug smuggling corridors across international boundaries of the United States.
(8)Establishment of command, control, communications, and computer networks for improved integration of law enforcement, active military, and National Guard activities.”
With Nancy saying no Wall money, seems Trump already has it in the legal lingo that it’s his job to oversee what? “Construction of roads, fences and lighting…”
All of which was signed-off on by both houses of Congress and signed into law…who where, indeed, is the issue? I mean besides democrats itching to raise taxes? OK, and maybe allow in more poor from elsewhere so we can exploit them on their way up as our forefathers and foremothers…but oh, please, don’t unwrap exploitation from the exploitive economics because that all just blows up the right-left political charade the PowersThatBe use to control us all.
Off Planet Roll Call
We ask “What planet are these people from?” as we review:
Seems to us, it’s important to the masters of Digital Mob Rule to attack Israel as antisemitism is rebranded. See Rep. Ilhan Omar defends Israel criticism for details. Between her and AOC, workers paradise is coming for sure. As long as you’re not above middle class, white, Jewish or… (who will they go after next?) Shame on me for mentioning such.
Besides, it’s all about ME, ain’t it? No? Country singer Justin Moore shares gnarly photo of injured leg after a horse stepped on it.
Louis Farrakhan calls for separate state for Black Americans, says that’s ‘what God wants’. Wait! Isn’t that racist?
I’m So Sick of It…
That UrbanSurvival will be going back to the old publishing four times a week on the free side. You want more? Subscribe to Peoplenomics. Besides, due to Bowl movements this weekend, people shouldn’t notice and I have a ton of planting to get in – trying a few acres of sunflowers.
We will bee seeing how that works this year. Kitchen cabinet work looms too.
So does “retirement.” With age 70 just a few weeks away, I’m gong to dial-back the 16-hour days to 12… Maybe have a Saturday freebie…we’ll see how much I get done.
Next chapter on designing and building truly superior prepping with a great power system on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow.
And if New England wins? Ask yourself it the Fed called it, lol…