We can begin with markets, which put on a rousing show yesterday as the Federal Reserve decided to “talk nice” and hold off on raising rates.
This was taken as constructive by most. Except for one thing: If the Trump Bump was continuing, there would be no doubt about it..markets would be zooming ahead.
In our aggregated markets view, predicated on the simple notion that there is only so much money washing around the world at any given moment, what we see is a deterioration in the Quarter-On-Quarter performance of “totaled markets” and it looks like this:
Initially, it looks like a mixed report card. Sometimes the market goes up, sometime down. But in terms of personal financial outlooks, the Quarter-On-Quarter (QoQ) is not nearly as descriptive of personal long-term results as Year-On-Year (YoY) comparisons. In this view, Trump could be pictured as losing the battle:
OMG, how many do you want?
But is there more to it? Each of these is its own hellishly complicated multivariate study.
For example, under the trade umbrella, we need to consider China’s slowing economy as the roll people into “middle class.” But, along with that, another data string deals with Taiwan and reunification. And, sure, the contested “military islands” China is building.
Did I mention the Moon? Remember, China’s been there more recently that the U.S. and may have interstellar dreams outpacing Trekkies here. North Korea? Yeah, how many missile site do they have? See what I mean by “hellishly complicated?”
The other angle on markets may be closer to a “hidden variable.” How will people react when they find that the “tax break” of 2018 wazs a trade-off for limited to state and local tax write-offs? And then, how many people will, as we note in the YoY comparison chasrt above, notice that they won’t have as much of a Trump Bump. How many of those “financially disaffected” will lose faith in Trumps ability to “pull it out” in the final hours of Term One. He’s up against a clock.
For republicans, the simplistic answers of wannabe socialists on the radicalizing left may actually help. Give AOC enough mics and she’ll hang the whole democrat party. Ditto with Bernie. His biggest problem is half-wit ideas like the “penny-a-share” tax on stock sales won’t even freeze the growth of the National Debt.
It’s another example of why democrats need someone like Howard Schultz, but he may not be “nutty-enough” for today’s phone-freaked radicals (PFR’s). ( We use the terms Digilantes and Digital Mob Rule (the DMR) more or less interchangeably.)
Schultz, at least, can read a balance sheet, run the numbers, and act in accordance with the data. What we need as a president is someone more “data intensive” and “consensus-building.” Don’t get me wrong, I like the idea of Trump but so far, the democrats (and their puppets in the MainStreamMedia have done a masterful job of playing “Pin the Shutdown on the President.” Which is pretty slick when you look at the part-time presence and sun splashing the democrats have been enjoying. Winter must just be for voters.
Too many variables for us because of commodity prices, too. We see Gold is well above the $1,300 level and Silver is back up $16. Oil is quickly firming, as well. And all of these things are what one would expect if we have been in a wave 4 and still have a year or two of a wave 5 which could bring new all-time highs.
We will know a lot more, as NBC put it, in the next 96-hours. But there is some firming around the edges. Whether it holds is another thing. New all-time highs would be an indicator. Then it would only be a matter of “how far is up.” Still, Bitcoin at $3,417 earlier and general pricing levels of the collectibles on eBay that I track (still quite firm) offer the notion that we may get another couple of years to prepare for the ultimate implosion.
This afternoon’s H.6 money stocks measure may reveal more…and so may the weekend results of trade talks.
As the record-smashing cold continues in the upper Midwest and Northeast, we have two useful ideas to toss out:
The first is a look at this morning’s US weather data from the government which looks like this:
And then I want you to look at a piece of a graphic off the Wikipedia entry page under Laurentide Ice Sheet.
The point of comparing the Ice Sheet coverage map with the seriously over-hyped, total climate-monetization hustle ” is to see that the area of the “vortex” has a long history of being, pardon me for saying this aloud…cold.
Earlier this week, I showed you the climate data collected from the NOAA time series and nope, didn’t see any appreciable warming and that ought to scare the hell out of people. Why?
Because exactly the opposite of what climate Nazis were spewing (all electric vehicles, go solar, kill coal) would be the right response to cooling. In the long run, Robert Felix seems more likely to be right in his book Not by Fire but by Ice: Discover What Killed the Dinosaurs…and Why It Could Soon Kill Us. The data seems to be rolling his way lately. Yes, the book, has been out for years. But, that doesn’t make it wrong.
Just like David Docker’s book “Cash in on the Coming Real Estate Crash: How to Protect Yourself From Losses ” which came out in 2006 was extremely prescient. Wrong for the first year or two, but then?
In all of this, there is a huge lesson for the phonetard generation. The advice is “Try to Shut the f**k up and study the data.”
If there is one thing I have seen in today’s under 50’s it’s that they attack ideas with nothing more than phone mob data to back them up. Anger and personality, and it’s all ab out them.
Sorry, children: It’s not. It’s about the effing data. Get the data right and you get a better life. Get it wrong and you don’t.
Getting pissy, flaming, tweeting, reposting, BCC’ing…it’s all the lazy people stuck firmly in their personal digital moment (PDM).
The Sweep of History buries the unaware… so please, try to look to the horizon instead of the screen in your life. Instead of spewing anger all over the place, put love in your heart and remember to an advanced human There is always another question. (Anger and opinion don’t answer or solve anything.)
We live in a “split world” now. Digilantes who don’t ask, or if they do, can’t hear and don’t respect anything that questions Digital Mob Rule. The DMR is here, just coming into focus.
Have humans advanced since the Laurentide Sheet?
Well, not so much. While I’d hoped America had outgrown the horrors of lynching people because of their race, we have re-monetized hate and we’re now doing daily digital lynchings.
Social Media is not social. It’s Digital Mob Rule – The Spiteful Hive. And yes, I’m working on a new book after the one on solar power I’m writing for Peoplenomics subscribers.
Broken Web II, a follow up to my 2012 book Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet. You may not see it, if you “live on the web” b ut yeah, mob rule is here and it’s becoming all-pervasive.
Sick, screwed up place. But, as always, we gotta “tell it like it is.”
We either recognize digital mob rule and come to terms with it, or we will accelerate the monetization of hate and the digital lynchings to come. Social media is now more dangerous to heart-centered humans than atomic energy, EMP, and bioweapons combined.
Notwithstanding young people going straight to anger (and not takin g the time to ask another questions (like, oh “Why do you say that? and digging for data which is what a nominally science-based culture would do), we see that the arrival of digital mob rule as also been extremely un-even in how it’s geographically dispersed.
There was a report out from the Labor Department yesterday that gives a hint:
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 61 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 327 areas. The national unemployment rate in December was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 3.9 percent a year earlier.”
So let me see what that tears-down as? In 18.65 percent of metro areas, the absolute number of people working went up. The shocker – and no doubt one of this morning’s hidden variables is that the data infers that more than 81% of the country (0.8134556574923547% if you want to quibble) there has seen no payroll employment growth.
As a result, when we read today’s report on how:
“Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period
ending in December 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make
up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.6 percent and benefit costs (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) increased 0.7 percent from September 2018.”
We’re just going to assume, pending another batch of data study, that the bulk of the increases were noted in the 18% of cities where payrolls are growing.
Another bummer in the data? (You sure you want this?)
“CHICAGO, January 31, 2019 – Employers at U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 52,988 jobs from their payrolls in January, 20.7 percent higher than the 43,884 announced in December, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
January’s total is 18.7 percent higher than the 44,653 cuts announced in the same month last year. While it is lower than the average of 86,347 cuts announced during the month of January since 1993, it is higher than 20 of the last 24 monthly totals. “
(I warned you…)
So Big Picturing? Looks to us like in cities, the same rules of imperialistic finance still applies: The Rich Get Richer.
As long as we’re on rich and who’s getting it, there’s a new report on total city and state taxes just out from The Tax Foundation and it shows?
States with the highest average combined state and local sales tax rates:
- Tennessee (9.47%)
- Louisiana (9.45%)
- Arkansas (9.43%)
- Washington (9.17%)
- Alabama (9.14%)
You should check out the map over here... This is the kind of data that pipes into total quality of life…
Government Data To Come
Census/Commerce is out with their revised list of coming data which wed keep[ an eye on because it might impact markets:
And markets – after the shot of speed from the Fed – are mixed: Dow was down 60 on the futures, but on a percentage basis, offset by the tech stocks, so rotsa ruck on that.
No UrbanSurvival Post Sunday
Yeah…I turn over the speed limit in a few weeks (70) and it’s time to slow down on the keyboard and focus more on putting in flowers and the vegetable garden and building a new kitchen.
The only so much of me…so Sunday is not a different kind of work day.
On that note, moron the ‘morrow with me starring as the moron part..