This is, of course, election day. We’re still trying to sort out whether to vote, but the “Yes, let’s do this thing” is winning. For the moment. But that doesn’t mean we are please with any of the candidates. The motivator for us is the promise (by one) to put people we admire to work … Read More
In keeping with our focus on Long Wave Economics – that, along with prepping for anything goes being the cornerstones of this site – let’s begin with a Big Long Term view because it is very important. As explained in our Peoplenomics.com ChartPack Wednesday, its hard to deny that we’re in a financial bubble the likes of … Read More
You know the old saying, right? “Man who keeps ear to ground risks being run over!” And yet, there is so damn much going on that a little “ground sounding” seems like a useful thing to do in here. Starting with a look at the markets in the Pre-Open with our Aggregate Index to see … Read More
Might as well get right to the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing number, first today… “After climbing into positive territory last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated twenty-three points to -11.9. New orders fell, and shipments edged lower. Delivery times were slightly shorter, while supply availability deteriorated somewhat. Inventories shrank.” Markets, perhaps still … Read More
Busy Friday here, so let’s jump right into the EmpSit – employment situation – report just out: “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, … Read More
Macroeconomics first. When “times are good” people run out and buy houses. Smart thing to do because the government – unable to live within a budget – overspends all the time. And, as we discussed in the Monday column, ten bucks’ worth of “stuff” in 1913 is over $800 today. People buy homes generally knowing … Read More
Oh, boy. Did I screw up the calendar, or what? This weekend features one of two major ham radio events of the year as far as we’re concerned. This is when prepping gets put to the test as hams go all-out for Field Day. Details on the ARRL website here: 2024 ARRL Field Day Theme: … Read More
DDT – it’s data dense Thursday – as we all head back to await the next holiday. Since the Fourth of July will fall on a Thursday this year – two weeks from today – we expect tons of people will turn this one into a four-day weekend. It’s worth noticing, too: TSA on X: … Read More
We have started to move our “daily word count” down. No more 2,000-word rambles because there’s no point. Future is “locking”. Two “Clocks” that Matter As you may be aware, the stock market hit a new (nominal, Aggregate) high Wednesday. this follows our Peoplenomics.com report Saturday that we are facing a “Screaming Rally or Crash” … Read More
Although the price of Bitcoin was stuck just under $69,000 when checked before pounding out the column, we are concerned that inflation is becoming an institutional fixture. Which means a harder landing ahead. Unless the hype is right: Bitcoin could top $150k in Q3 2025, chart veteran Peter Brandt says (crypto.news). The problem with a … Read More
Although we would normally begin with the latest breaking data (since markets seem to love it), we will hold for a second to see what the (geniuses) in D.C. have cooked up. Tariff Wars Specifically, the big White House press release beginning: “President Biden Takes Action to Protect American Workers and Businesses from China’s Unfair … Read More
We’re going to talk about “Hearing the Music of Life” today. Even a wordsmith (maybe, someday) learns a new word now and then. Today it was that an acceptable plural of the (singular) tempo is “tempi.” Arizona may complain. We don’t talk too much about “tempi” (tempos) to the flow of news. A useful way … Read More
You may (or may not, who knows?) have seen my note yesterday about how we “ought to see a rally” in markets – and it could be a smoker today. Because Retail Sales will drop Monday. Which could (in our delusional view) trigger the Fed to actually raise – not lower – rates on a short-term “emergency basis” … Read More