Retail Sales, UII Filters, Philly Fed #’s, Ex-Im Prices

Damn.  This is one of those glorious news days. When all I need to do is write an intro line to each item in a whole stack of important news releases.  So, while we wait for “what goes up” (to run the retail shorts ahead of options and wait for the inevitable downturn), here’s today’s … Read More

Snow and ‘Mo, Markets Scream Higher, and a Woo 2

Cold enough people’s brains freeze, is how we figure it. One of our 3806 ham radio cohorts (“coffee good…” John) works for one of the Big Box stores here in Texas.  And going to work Sunday, you could almost make out the “concern” in his voice.  People go a bit nuts when Big Snow or … Read More

So Much for Santa, Year-end Looms, Reading Time

Early today, the Futures were pricing in a good-sized decline.  Dow Futures at 7 AM Eastern were down about 170 and it looked like the S&P and NASDAQ were on similar pathing for four-tenths of a percent drops. Meanwhile, after hitting $106,490 Tuesday, Bitcoins had fallen to the mid $95,000’s. While the market continues to … Read More

“Told You So” – The 1929 Problem – Ikigai Life

Yes.  Market dropped like a free-falling safe Wednesday.  And yes, we had a nice 4-digit pop in the Lunch Money account. But this is a move we have been talking about for a long time.  For example: Back on November 5th I wrote that: “Early futures were (predictably) up because the real close Monday was … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: UFO Study, Digital Photography Help

First, a Readings note:  There is an update on G.A. Stewart’s website titled Prelude to a Coup which we judge to be worth adding to your Sunday reading list.  Because in case you haven’t figured it out, with the Presidential Electors meeting next Tuesday and then the counting in (the New) congress an January 6th … Read More

Spending Frenzy Day – Magic Leftovers

Today is a “”tough one” out here in the wilds of East Texas.  Oh, the weather, while turning cold is OK.  Our house guest /consigliere has had a good time. Even got a case settled Wednesday afternoon.  Ah, the magic of MagicJack VOIP, multiple monitors, and Starlink. Yeah, all that stuff is fine.  And the Turkey … Read More

CFNAI, Rally, BTC Tries 100, and the Turkey Lurkees

Chicago Fed first, then a rally. But Housing looms tomorrow.  Even so, with some possible Housing regret, it won’t last long because turkey is lurking this week. We can also see the broad sweep of history, as we  have now lived through the entire transition from “National Call Your Broker Day” – which was what … Read More

Flash-Bangs and False Peace – Holy Molars

You are on the Titanic.  The band is playing on.  The iceberg has been hit.  A red line has been crossed. In the small world of credible “seers” and “prognosticators” there is Big Trouble just ahead.  A break. And then the Biggest and Worst. A great starting point is G.A. Stewart’s latest piece on The Age … Read More

ShopTalk Sunday: Falling into Fall – Hydro & Electro

I suppose Fall Gardening is still on some people’s minds.  The Frozen North isn’t – at least yet. And the Southern states are not all atwitter about ice storms. But, give it time. At our place, I have made a simple decision this year NOT to fire up the greenhouse heater system (Chinese diesel 8 … Read More

Capt. Gooding and the Musk Paradox

Been one hell of a week, hasn’t it? Market’s set to take a breather this morning. Fed regional chieftess Michelle Bowman’s likely to offer some level-headed assessments after the quarter point cut. And the markets are trying to figure out “Where next?” They hit the top of a trend channel on new highs Thursday, but … Read More

New Chart Channel, Fed Shock? Positional Probability

Fill’er to the rim – or is that brim? Odd ducks be quacking in the land of Sim. Will this be “Joe Go Day” with a side of Fed Shock?  Hmm… Charts that Wow! New all-time Aggregate Index highs came rolling in after the Trump win and today we are expecting some carry-forward and maybe … Read More