Say, how about them retail sales numbers? “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $722.7 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024. Total … Read More
Want to begin with a “hard number”? Sure, we can do that: The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December 2024. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the … Read More
There are about four – kinda separate – stories that have us paying attention today. Let’s start with the Challenger Job Cuts report just out: “U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for the month since 2009 when 186,350 job cuts were recorded. It is the highest monthly total since July … Read More
We don’t expect a lot of fireworks today. A fine day to finish writing a new chapter of my next book, Downsizing, which is being serialized on the Peoplenomics.com site for subscribers. Along with the charts and so forth and such-not. With showers moving through Texas and a mid-week cold snap, we have a brief reprieve before … Read More
The Real World Order is coming out of the shadows. The evidence is mounting around us: A variant of “civil war” may be unfolding before us. A “War Behind the Headlines” spectacle? Well, why not? Everything else has been virtualized, right? Consider – as just one example – Wall Street Apes on X: “The problem has … Read More
Busy as hell around here (though I know it has been coming). Spring is in the air and for one old man, two deck plans and a generator shed plus greenhouse repairs, plus… well, to the column, huh? VIX, Volatility, and CFNAI We figure another hard down (or blow-off rally) will happen this week. Because … Read More
With our Presidents Day activities (getting a scalar prototype out the door this week_) most of today will be devoted to work in Ure’s Old Man Lab. I don’t talk about it much – people’s eyes tend to glaze over, but it’s a very well-appointed place to hang out and do work on the fringe-stuff … Read More
With the strong rally in the stock market Thursday, the markets had the “look and feel” (to us) of getting into a “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” mode ahead of today’s Retail Sales numbers and the Fed Industrial Production data shortly. The Fed has already taken away the punch bowl with the appearances of … Read More
With inflation back *(as we explained in the Peoplenomics report Wednesday), you’d naturally expect PPI to jump and that’s not even taking in tariffs: “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in December 2024 … Read More
I apologize for not approving comments Monday – I was simply so immersed in AI working on tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report, that I literally lost track of time. OK, so what’s so interesting? Well, there are two articles in the works. The first one – tomorrow – is titled “40 More Years from AI.” In it, I show … Read More
We will be getting a lot of work done here this weekend: With most of America distracted by competing delusions. First is the hysteria over Elon Musk, who is trying to get a handle on “Where’s all the money been going?” The left (and slow-motion Marxist insurrection) is going absolutely crazy because the Deep State … Read More
Super short column this morning, as I have been hip-deep in (stuff) around here. Doctor appointment for usual blood draws – I may live a while longer, lol. Comments on safety of Zetia are welcome in Comments…. Job Cuts Markets had a good day Wednesday, but we are becoming concerned (with DeepSeek and all the foam … Read More
Market futures were down following yesterday’s rally at an unusual time. In our Aggregate markets view, the Tech sector had continued to lag and could not reach a “necessary kiss” at overhead resistance. When we look at our Aggregate Index (an index of indices of U.S. markets), we are just now “walking resistance higher”. In … Read More