Tl;DR: Our spicey old Saturday Gourmet column is back for an occasional peek – meeting the ShopTalk mindset and fascination with “Having the right tools.” You see, having the right pan is like having the right saw blade — sure, you can hack it out, but why not make it smooth, easy, and a little … Read More
Given all the bounce in pricing lately, we found this morning’s Retail Sales report interesting: “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up … Read More
Let’s bust this down so I can get rolling on a longish econ paper for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow. Here’s today’s shopping list. Market was up a bit early – which could power the FOMC to talk down rate cuts tomorrow which could hurt the bubble. Housing (we will have a second report after the data … Read More
We have to start off this morning by “running the numbers.” Because, like it or not, this is one way of trying to out-guess where the future is leading. IF, that is, you believe the “perfect pricing model” of trading. Which holes that all known information is already in the markets at some level. We … Read More
Tariff Wars are back – in spades. Trump recommends 50% tariff on European Union starting June 1 and along with that? Trump tariff Apple iPhones not made in the U.S.. Obviously, the stock market didn’t like hearing it. Dow futures were down more than -500 and the S&P was down more than 80. Techs were down … Read More
Before we launch into the CPI just out, let’s chill for a second to review Big Picture stuff. It matters. My consigliere made the fine point Monday that “The market won’t care that trade has been kicked down the road for only 90-days…the market wants to go up…” He’s got a point: After screaming up well … Read More
With the gaveling in for the (likely no change) FOMC rate meeting, we see the markets are running red again today. So the “Lunch Money Trading account is “piling up cheeseburgers” pretty well. The Big Picture view in our ChartPack (which is one of the bennies of $40-bucks a year on Peoplenomics.com) is that three … Read More
The set-up to this is simple: Dems are screaming as Trump momentum stalls. But, behind all of it, is a big-ass Economy. And yes, we still have one. So it’s useful when panic is in the air, or we are midpoint in a rally in a longer time domain decline, to remember inertia. How do … Read More
Say, how about them retail sales numbers? “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $722.7 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from February 2024. Total … Read More
Want to begin with a “hard number”? Sure, we can do that: The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December 2024. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the … Read More
There are about four – kinda separate – stories that have us paying attention today. Let’s start with the Challenger Job Cuts report just out: “U.S.-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for the month since 2009 when 186,350 job cuts were recorded. It is the highest monthly total since July … Read More
We don’t expect a lot of fireworks today. A fine day to finish writing a new chapter of my next book, Downsizing, which is being serialized on the Peoplenomics.com site for subscribers. Along with the charts and so forth and such-not. With showers moving through Texas and a mid-week cold snap, we have a brief reprieve before … Read More
The Real World Order is coming out of the shadows. The evidence is mounting around us: A variant of “civil war” may be unfolding before us. A “War Behind the Headlines” spectacle? Well, why not? Everything else has been virtualized, right? Consider – as just one example – Wall Street Apes on X: “The problem has … Read More