Elaine and I spent a perfect Saturday putting together a new piece of furniture (made in Taiwan). And I have to admit it was exactly why one needs to “manage for outcomes” – not trying to put on airs about being a woodsmith.
It was well-made, the holes were perfect and even the doors lined up within a 5-minute tweak of perfect. Key point: It cost $55.00. Have a look here.
Could I have built such a thing in my own shop? Sure – give me 2-3 days, time for finishing to dry, scrap to do lots of test-drilling on. But this was one of those
“home improvements” where efficiency won out. Entryway into the Tiki themed dining room is now done, except for the balance of the project.
And that’s our “shop note” for today:
Sometimes, you will have a pile of treated 2-by’s or some scrap tin and a project will just appear and you’ll build for the joy of building. Other times – and this was one of them – your function is more like a “systems integrator.”
Decorating is more systems. Right furniture, right painting and finishes, voice control and mood sounds as you walk by.
All of which are sub-domains to the real fun parts of life:
- Identify and remove friction.
- Identify and remove optical, tactile, and aural affronts.
- And build your own mini-amusement park inside the borders of your life.
As a spirit/intelligence – trapped in an animal body for a century-long run – it’s a grand way to pass the time and a way to remain related (and relatable) to the larger amusement rides such as Life.
News Compressor: ON
Sunday’s Launch of the Week Ahead
TL;DR: We arrive at Sunday with expensive energy, nervous AI investors, expanding geopolitical conflicts, and governments running short of financial flexibility. The question for the week ahead: Will these pressures dissipate—or begin reinforcing one another?
Monetizers — Follow the Money
Friday’s Nasdaq fell 2.19%, while AI infrastructure operator CoreWeave reportedly dropped 12%. Investors are beginning to question whether the AI boom can generate enough cash flow to support its enormous borrowing requirements.
The ballistics: Monday’s test isn’t whether the Dow rises or falls. It’s whether selling spreads from AI stocks into corporate credit, semiconductors, and the broader market. Watch oil, Treasury yields, and credit spreads.
The Economic Fractalist’s set up for Monday is here. And on his site. Our long-range work is in the Peoplenomics ChartPack for subscribers, but here is something to think about.
Maybe it’s because I’m old, but the times have a “summer of 2001″ (or 2008) to it. Risks of a ‘false flag” may be higher, and we still remember the lessons of Cyprus when they had a little “bail-in.” Anyone else remember the Spring of ’13?
One key point from Cyprus: Deposits up to €100,000 were protected against losses under the applicable guarantee framework, but that didn’t guarantee uninterrupted access to the money. Deposit insurance and immediate liquidity are two different things. Especially if you have a time-linked eating schedule.
Technical Trust: The standard FDIC insurance limit is $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each ownership category.
How it works
- Per depositor: Coverage is based on the legal owner(s), not the account number.
Per bank: Deposits at separately chartered FDIC-insured banks are insured separately. Branches or different brand names under the same bank charter share one set of limits. - Per ownership category: This is the key that allows more than $250,000 at one bank. Common categories include:
- Single accounts (in your name only): all of them at one bank are added together and insured up to $250,000 total.
- Joint accounts: $250,000 per co-owner (so a two-person joint account can be insured for $500,000).
- Qualifying insured deposits held in certain retirement accounts, including IRAs: separate $250,000 limit
Example: $150,000 in a personal checking account + $150,000 in a personal savings account at the same bank = $300,000 total in the “single” category. Only $250,000 is insured; the extra $50,000 is not.
Here’s a link to the FDIC insurance estimator for readers wanting to calculate their coverage.
We also like local banks. Imagine authorities announcing, “No bank closures, but certain transactions must now be conducted in person.” Suddenly, having a banker down the road looks better than having one three states or a plane ride away.
For us, the week ahead is MMW: Money-Moving Week. Money into solid banks to “spread the balances around” remembering in the Cyprus case how accounts under €100,000 were left untouched. We figure under $50,000 is a better operating plan. Because we don’t trust anyone.
To be clear: We do not expect bank “runs”. We are just getting a head start on potential “bank clicks.”
Warifiers — Energy Becomes the Battlefield
Attacks around Hormuz, strikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy infra, and threats involving Saudi Arabia have made petroleum production and transportation strategic targets.
The ballistics: Shipping interruptions raise energy costs. Higher energy costs feed inflation, complicate interest-rate policy, and squeeze businesses already carrying expensive debt. Watch shipping volumes, diesel, and Brent crude.
Taxifiers — The Government’s Empty Pockets
America’s reported $1.99 trillion annual deficit and $1.36 trillion debt-service burden illustrate a growing constraint: governments have less room to maneuver when emergencies arrive.
The ballistics: Higher borrowing costs consume money that might otherwise support infrastructure, defense, or economic stabilization. Seeing why we’re thinking more accounts with smaller balances? Trust who you will…
Techifiers — Brilliant Machines, Fragile Financing
AI capability keeps improving, but financing and infra reliability are separate issues. China’s technology restrictions and reported cyberattacks on European refrigeration systems expose additional vulnerabilities.
The ballistics: Watch AI borrowing costs, delayed construction projects, export restrictions, and infrastructure failures.
Humanizers and Healthifiers — The Human Balance Sheet
Pacific storms, California fires, violence, and disease outbreaks remind us that every economic abstraction eventually becomes somebody’s damaged home, medical emergency, lost paycheck, or disrupted supply chain.
The ballistics: Recovery costs and interrupted services continue long after headlines disappear.
Unifiers — Where the Trajectories Cross
The mechanism worth watching:
War > Energy Inflation > Higher Borrowing Costs > AI Financing Stress > Weaker Investment > Economic Slowdown > Bigger War > Bigger Inflation (return or another GOSUB – your call)
These connections aren’t inevitable, but they explain why several manageable problems can become one serious problem.
The Week’s Five Checkpoints
- Monday: Does AI selling spread into credit markets? Monday and a half: Does selling spread into stocks from bonds? Canadian CPI for the looney.
- Tuesday: Are Gulf disruptions lifting energy prices? US Housing starts release.
- Wednesday: Does geopolitical escalation continue? Peoplenomics 85-DMA check and roller coaster review for subscribers.
- Thursday: Are financing stresses broadening? Or, do we need NoDoz by afternoon?
- Friday: Has market resilience improved or deteriorated? Are the externalities on fire and are we nearing the economic Dresden?
Thinkifier Bottom Line: A market top is a price. A systemic break is a process.
The trick is recognizing the process before everybody else notices the price.
Thinkifier — Baked Sunday before Shop Work.
Write when you get rich (or spread around),
George@Ure.net
GU : “… is now done, except for the balance of the project …”
Words haunt project completion. The last 5%ish = 110% time?
I’m about what gets done. The many loose ends? Mind-boggle.
For now focus is on big items. Scatter cash in more accounts? Nope.
ATL : crazy fast change here. Need to go final wading then out of the wet.
Stiks : sigh, welcome to the dirt matey. Jim in MO : same, hang in both …
Q : how is a website which prattled on and on about ceasing Shop Sunday.
then tells of latest workshop this and that? Separation anxiety? Hmm.
Have a fine Sunday all.
E _____________________
I told you he couldn’t quit. It’s an addiction! …but a good one to have.
Dirt be damned, we’re going to get through this and still have some fun. Sam can’t dance but she can laugh so my task is to make it so.
Can’t damn the dirt. Better to keep the small garden growing. Summer ius coming and so are the tomatoes and peppers.
All one day at a time. All you get.
Stiks
Good to hear she is laughing. Keep up your positive energy. Prayers to you both.
while you were assembling a cabinet , I was working on my furnace, low heat output, turned out to be spiderweb or web like material behind the gas orfice, was 35 degrees friday nite, got a little chilly in the home.
works great now, was thankful for a relatively easy fix, some disassembly reQuired, and a little know how.
no power tools , parts, or naval adjectives needed, only a 3/16 socket driver , an openend ajustable wrench aka cresent, and a youtube video to aid in diagnosing, and a single Q-tip
onward to the faucet repair, awaiting inbound parts, kitchen sink.
maintence,,, is a never ending journey,,, now we need to winterize outside watering , ole man winter is approaching,, ball valves fully open can break in freezing temps, leave them 1/2 open/closed, to prevent the body from freeze breakage, these are a ball valve also,,,
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B09X6CW9M9
tobDarrell : we broke off sill cock hose ends the other day, 2nd hard frost here overnight. Winter be coming _ E ____
Signs for Fall are happening, large numbers of turkey vultures, a kettle of turkey vultures flying over.
“The name for a group of turkey vultures depends on what they’re doing. When resting on the ground or in trees, a group of vultures is called a “committee,” whereas a group feeding on a carcass is known as a “wake” But when soaring together in flight, they’re called a “kettle.” These terms also apply to other vultures and large birds.”
Have a rooster ringed neck pheasant and two hens walking round here.
Other signs, sunflowers ripe and several heads shucked for next years seeds.
Medical cannabis plants harvested and hang drying in a back shed.
Oh, and peak Autumn color while leaves fall. Tulips planted.
Pumpkin pie with real whip cream.
Enjoy the harvest season !
Vic S : tis the season, hey? “… in flight, they’re called a “kettle.” …” we are in typical wind pattern so support big updraft from our hill. Lotsa “kettles” overhead. I always feel compelled to keep moving (so none think I am roadkill. Love the Raptors though. Constant Eagles on the air. Pumpkin Pie. Num. Farm ladies hereabouts made great use of the closing bounty. _ E ______
is voting in Israel compulsory ? when is the election day ?
No. It is not. However, you must be a card-carrying citizen and be physically present to vote. No mail-in ballots., no early, or late voting and no overseas votes. You have to be physically ‘there’ to vote.
France is on the verge of collapse.
Just my opinion from all the news and finance articles. The state of their markets, debt and bonds. And the continuing, now extremely violent rioting., which is spreading. They are no longer ‘protests’ – it has turned into “rioting for no reason” now. , and they are burning the house down.
I believe that they only have a few days left before it all collapses.
This mentality has also spread to Belgium and parts of Portugal. And an underground report that the gangs of Buenos Aires are planning a massive destructive attack – in solidarity with the French protectors. [ so far., just a rumor.] Note: They don’t give a damn about what happens in France – it’s just a convenient excuse to destroy.
This could easily spread across Europe. Italy and Germany are ripe for ‘protests’. The U.K. appears to be preparing for it. It just takes one, in each country to set the stage. 20% of Berlin neighborhoods are now controlled by Muslims. Several are a ‘no go zone’ for the police. Though it is not just Muslims who are protesting.
Put all the pieces together – and it looks really bad. I can hear Russia whispering – “I told ya so..,”.
By the way – This was predicted. It just took a generation for it to materialize., and every side to yell in unison “Enough !”.
“Stay Frosty!”
Martin Armstrong: Civil Unrest and International War, aligning at the same time. We have a Panic Cycle in the Civil Unrest in 2029. This raises serious concern that the EU may no longer exist and that the rise in this civil unrest will increase the pressure for separatist movements. The Politicians have simply refused to listen to the people they are supposed to represent because they see the people as too stupid to visualize what they see for the future.
These forecasts are NOT my personal opinion. This is the computer all based on the historical record.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/europe-civil-unrest-on-time/
The really bad thing is France could truly collapse and be taken over by their invaders.
As long as the media (both here and abroad) are afraid to call France’s problem “an invasion” and not “student unrest,” their issues can’t even be addressed.
i.e. To fix a problem, you have to first admit a problem exists, and once you acknowledge its existence, you have to identify the actual problem — not just its symptoms. Until this is done, no problem can be fixed.
France is far more important than any other nation in continental Ureup.
Why?
France has about 240 nukes and the delivery system to deliver them anywhere in the world. They also have an advanced air force and an advanced bioscience system which could be weaponized within days, to send boutique aerosolized viri and spores to any point on the globe.
Eastern Europe, Russia, China, the UK, and all of America (North and South) can not afford to have Muslim fanatics at the controls of enough WMDs to cleanse the planet of all mammals. We would all be on their target list.
You can bet the cheese-eaters don’t have enough collective testosterone amongst all of them together, to bring out the M-240s and fight a war for survival.
QOH (Question Of the Hour): If France falls to the hoarde, will we be doing a Normandy redux…?
very informative and accurate mate . so true thx
(“It was well-made, the holes were perfect and even the doors lined up within a 5-minute tweak of perfect. Key point: It cost $55.00. Have a look here.
Could I have built such a thing in my own shop? Sure – give me 2-3 days, time for finishing to dry, scrap to do lots of test-drilling on. “)
Absolutely you could have built it….our bedroom furniture…A queen sister bed team made of cherry..all wood….A full dresser and mirror..each drawer has dust covers..( you rarely see that..only in high end furniture) A high boy dresser, a wardrobe, A blanket chest an end table and the lingerie chest( also referred to as a bachelor chest)
why did I bring this up..the cost…. it was less than what I could buy the knobs for you to build that cabinet..your cost would of comfortably tripple…
that’s why industrialists outsourced manufacturing… now back off of that cabinet…made in Taiwan…. sixty bucks retail.. average profit 30% what is shipping.. back down the pyramid..the cost was pennies..its exactly why Julie sent me a full pallet of drink cans for $12.00 and shipping and when I asked cause I could only afford one case ( and it was cheaper than if I bought them here) she simply said oh your a good customer and shipping was the same for one box or a pallet so I just upped the order..we still made profit) my dishwasher retail in turkey is $4.50 us….. curiosity says hey what did that thing really cost for the ZON to sell it at such a bargain….
the ZON sells returns by the pallet at $50.00 a pallet..but you have to buy a semi load..theres a store that recently closed ( brick and mortar cost and the per engage the landlord required was the reason) that bought and sold returns.. dollar and less… the more expensive items was 20% of retail.
Oh..and a blanket chest…
big wheel of fortune spins at wall street tommorrow!!!! big dollars but no volatility !!! aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
Pb is the solution to riots. Napoleon had that one down. His seasoned army and a few cannons made short work of the ‘protests’.
Then the trouble will really begin. Think Sarajevo. Run the gauntlet for bread.
Stupid humans
Stiks
The problem with the Pb solution is the invaders have cameras, and the worldwide “news” media is complicit, and sympathetic to their cause.
A modern newsnerd will support every pro-communist movement, right up to the time the commies give him or her the cigarette and blindfold. It’s something that’s beyond my ken, and I’d hazard to say our host here could probably not do his previous job in today’s environment…
Ray, any hope of me ever returning to news management ended when the Associated Press turned its back on “fair and equal” treatment in 2020:
1. Capitalize Black
From AP’s June 19, 2020, announcement:
“AP’s style is now to capitalize Black in a racial, ethnic or cultural sense”
Associated Press Stylebook
AP explains that the capitalization recognizes a shared history, identity, and community.
2. Do not capitalize white
From AP’s July 20, 2020, announcement:
“AP style will continue to lowercase the term white in racial, ethnic and cultural senses.”
Associated Press Stylebook
AP’s explanation includes concerns about differences in historical and cultural identification and about the use of capitalized White by white supremacists.
3. Other racial and ethnic identifiers
AP also capitalizes Indigenous, Latino, Asian American, and Native American. In 2026, it moved its Native American and Indigenous guidance into a separate entry to better recognize political and sovereign identities.
The practical rule for so-called news-writing today is specifically non-equal. Which as a patriotic American is an affront.
Identification AP capitalization
Black people Capital B
white people Lowercase w
Indigenous people Capital I
Native American Capitals
Asian American Capitals
Latino / Latina Capitals
An interesting contrast: The National Institutes of Health explicitly rejects AP’s distinction and capitalizes both Black and White, reasoning that lowercase white could imply a default racial category.
I am not so old (and unemployable) that I can remember when AP was not a biased organization when came to racial identification. Personally, I don’t care upper or lower as long as Punctuation remains the last bastion of Equality. But that fell, huh?
So today, rather than championing Equality among Persons the AP has gone along with leftist mob theocracy. Stalin would be proud.
A.P.’s justification for this (good) discrimination may be read here: https://attachments.apstylebook.com/blog_posts/16?utm_source=chatgpt.com No, we don’t make this shit up.