Macroeconomics first. When “times are good” people run out and buy houses. Smart thing to do because the government – unable to live within a budget – overspends all the time. And, as we discussed in the Monday column, ten bucks’ worth of “stuff” in 1913 is over $800 today. People buy homes generally knowing … Read More
Oh, boy. Did I screw up the calendar, or what? This weekend features one of two major ham radio events of the year as far as we’re concerned. This is when prepping gets put to the test as hams go all-out for Field Day. Details on the ARRL website here: 2024 ARRL Field Day Theme: … Read More
DDT – it’s data dense Thursday – as we all head back to await the next holiday. Since the Fourth of July will fall on a Thursday this year – two weeks from today – we expect tons of people will turn this one into a four-day weekend. It’s worth noticing, too: TSA on X: … Read More
We have started to move our “daily word count” down. No more 2,000-word rambles because there’s no point. Future is “locking”. Two “Clocks” that Matter As you may be aware, the stock market hit a new (nominal, Aggregate) high Wednesday. this follows our Peoplenomics.com report Saturday that we are facing a “Screaming Rally or Crash” … Read More
Although the price of Bitcoin was stuck just under $69,000 when checked before pounding out the column, we are concerned that inflation is becoming an institutional fixture. Which means a harder landing ahead. Unless the hype is right: Bitcoin could top $150k in Q3 2025, chart veteran Peter Brandt says (crypto.news). The problem with a … Read More
Although we would normally begin with the latest breaking data (since markets seem to love it), we will hold for a second to see what the (geniuses) in D.C. have cooked up. Tariff Wars Specifically, the big White House press release beginning: “President Biden Takes Action to Protect American Workers and Businesses from China’s Unfair … Read More
We’re going to talk about “Hearing the Music of Life” today. Even a wordsmith (maybe, someday) learns a new word now and then. Today it was that an acceptable plural of the (singular) tempo is “tempi.” Arizona may complain. We don’t talk too much about “tempi” (tempos) to the flow of news. A useful way … Read More
You may (or may not, who knows?) have seen my note yesterday about how we “ought to see a rally” in markets – and it could be a smoker today. Because Retail Sales will drop Monday. Which could (in our delusional view) trigger the Fed to actually raise – not lower – rates on a short-term “emergency basis” … Read More
Up at 3 AM because that Big Stock Brokerage merger in 2023 resulted in a change to our Schedule D which means (in an abundance of caution) filing an amended 1040 to get the new Schedule D into the IRS system for TY2024. God, to I know how to kick off and have a fun … Read More
Well, the Simon and Garfunkel song doesn’t apply today. You do remember their classic hit Bridge over Troubled Waters, right? Well, in Maryland today we have the slip side of that: Trouble over Bridged Waters – where a containership smashed an important bridge. Cargo ship hits Baltimore’s Key Bridge, bringing it down. At least 7 … Read More
Yeah, there’s a lot to cover this morning, but it was looking (earlier) like that “wild-eyed” short position I loaded up on Friday at the close would pay off with a couple of loaded cheeseburgers in the Lunch Money Day Trading Account (LMDTA). No, I don’t always win, but I also don’t always lose. This … Read More
Sure – market futures prices tell us there will be a higher average price of shares – at least for a while – when this bloated pig of a market finally wakes up. However, a “digital canary in the coal mine” is trying to die. Just a day and a half ago, BTC was $73,615. But, … Read More
Fed-in-the-Box next week. But it’s OK – they can’t do anything now. They are in a box to where anything they touch can set off the stampede. So, as a mood-setter ahead of Retail Sales data, an old flying definition (of a crash): It’s when you run out of Airspeed, Altitude, and Ideas at the … Read More