Data Dump Thursday

Out of recognition of my personal dopamine addiction tendency to over-trade a bit, we need to begin with the set-up going into a three-day weekend. This is one I MAY short.  Because things will likely be runaway positive next week, or we will slip down the icy slope toward global collapse (and war to follow). … Read More

CPI, UFOs, EoW?

Yes, we’re figuring things are going seriously off the rails, and we are holding a (painfully expensive so far) short position against the market going into today.  We think it’s way overpriced. Why?  (CPI) Well, that’s a good one, ain’t it?  We are at an illogical point, even up through the futures this morning before the … Read More

One Last Rally? A Data Point and a VSI Check

Although we are able to snipe occasional lunch money in this pig of a stock market, the amount of real Truth out there is getting harder to find. Data! Market futures slipped a bit on this. Meanwhile: Do I believe Labor Department data “Series Id: LNS12000000”?  Because if you did believe it, you’d be agreeing … Read More

Housing Lightens Up

Just out from S&P: “NEW YORK, JANUARY 31, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2022 show that home prices declined across the United States. YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National … Read More

Fed Dread, Obama’s Ukraine War, III in the Wings

Content Theft Notice:  Check your address bar.  If it shows a whole article and does NOT begin https://urbansurvival.com, then you are supporting copyright thieves. We have complained to the offending site’s hosting provider. Great self-discovery opportunity for you, too: Do you support crime?  Copyright scammers? Breaking Ukraine will also get F-16s: Fighter concession debate has … Read More

After a Manic Bounce? Monday

Stock markets will be interesting this week on a number of levels. On one, we may get some insight into how “News and Wars” drive markets.  As Germany goes for MONEY over PEACE as Minister: Germany won’t block Poland giving Ukraine tanks reports the Associated Press. The Russians, of course, seeing this coming, have been … Read More

A Word from “Mr. I Told You So” – Housing data

How long ago did I tell you?  We are likely in a large Wave 3 down now.  Hold that thought.  Couple of hot economic numbers to deal with before we go deep. Breaking: Housing Data Or should we call it “partly broken?” Key part: Building Permits Privately?owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were … Read More

The “Big Slide” – Jobs – D.C. Dicklock

It’s a nice Friday.  My new CPAP machine is working great, thanks.  With a good night’s sleep, along with a forecast high of 74F today, what could possibly go wrong? As it turns out: plenty. Long-term?  Dismal Being a self-centered, greedy, semi-retired scrooge, let me huff on the whiteboard marker and begin with the market outlook … Read More

Year-end Mini Rally – Reasonable Outlook for 2023

The market today will be starting (based on early futures) with a modest upside bias.  Which is due after the “downstroke” of the M that we posited earlier. Our outlook continues to expect a major decline in over-priced housing over the next six-months. Not to Be Conspiratorial But… My consigliere and I are both very worried … Read More

Silpidity, Chill, Slide, Durables & Incomes – Whee!

It was a chilly 9° F when I began my commute to the palatial UrbanSurvival office today. The cross-country commute (65-feet from the greenhouse to shop door) was not quite as miserably cold as up north of us: My 74-years-in-the-making “news nose” did find one angle on the cold I haven’t read before:  The CO2 … Read More

America’s “Silver Bullet Syndrome” – Can Santa Save Us?

I don’t know where the idea of the “Silver Bullet” came from.  Perhaps, it was the Lone Ranger in the youth of Boomers. There was a lot of “silver” in that teevee series.  Lemme see: Jay Silver Heels played the BF Tonto. The original masker rode the (high-ho of Hi-Yo, or “Hi ho’”) Silver four-legged vehicle. … Read More

Hard Week for the “War Party”?

There is a (sick) high art in Politics, American style.  Non-Solution. Issues come up, are cast about as “major campaign issues” – planks in party platforms – and despite being there (in the case of abortion rights) for more than half a century, they just never seem to get solved. Mind you, I’m not the … Read More

Day Trading the Weimar, Players a Bit Scrambled

Glorious Thursday!~ It was a highly profitable Fed announcement for Ure’s, truly.  And for a few of our readers, like D’Lynn for one.  Yes, it was a dandy day.  But punctuated with a reminder from my consigliere that although we are expecting something of a rally in here, “Counter Trend Trading is a great way … Read More