Other than pondering UFOs and our ongoing search for “the Key” to Reality, not much else really matters in this life. Unless you’re talking about making some serious money. That never goes out of style, for long.
As long-time readers appreciate, we have long postulated that a massive market decline in the pending economic collapse replay will take longer than the Great Depression collapse for a simple reason.
In the Great Depression lead-in, people only got stock market prices once a day because that’s how often the local newspapers were published.
Today, I figure the time scale into a Great Crash will be up to 3 times longer. Because people nowadays check stock prices three times a day, or more, I’m guessing.
Counterintuitively, the collapse of prices is largely driven by information asymmetry. Insiders have it – we peons do not. The faster information moves around, the more gradual the price discovery process.
Our current fascination is “How long and far does the collapse timeline extend given faster financial information rates?” 3-times as long? Maybe something in that range.
From the Sept. 3, 1929, high to the November 13, 1929, low following the Crash, we had 56-trading days.
Simple enough: This means a decline extended – due to the change of asymmetries – could be in the range of 168-trading days.
When we look at Nov. 8, 2021, and press out from there, the bottom might have come June 30th.
Well, except for holidays: We had Veterans Day and Thanksgiving Day. Then two more as Christmas and New Year’s must be noticed. Now, MLK day and for the first time Juneteenth. President’s Day? Why, sure. And what about Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. Did someone mention Good Friday and a partial day?
10-trading days into July? A week from now: July 15th.
We won’t hold this up as a “prediction” for certainly it is not. After all, the 3X multiplier is only a wild-ass guess based on information turnover speeds. And yet, it’s something to think about. The worst of times may be straight ahead.
Biden’s Job Problem
Less than stellar growth (he said, understating like crazy) in the ADP Employment report Thursday. Just 128,000 jobs were added. And there was a big jump in the Challenger Job Cuts, as well.
Today, our side of hash (and pass the crack pipe) looks like so:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.
What kind of bullshit is this? In their own data, the BLS reports more than 300-thousand FEWER people were working in June!
As for the CES Birth-Death Model, of the reported gains, the number made up was? 64-thousand. This was after healthcare and business and professional services got whacked.
The REALITY is we STILL don’t have as many people working even now as we had before the Covid bug was launched.
Incredibly, market manipulators are still unloading onto the unaware and that drove the market up yesterday. Dow futures were down only 44-after this statistical release for the digital crackhead crowd. (Brandon! Brandon! )
Preposterous data – Civilian labor force down 353,000 to make the lie work? With the effing Mexico border leaking border jumpers and OTMs all over the country?
Seriously: WTF is wrong with people they can’t call bullshit when it’s obvious? Smell is everywhere!
Lies won in 2020, though, so the dim-o-craps are on track for an attempted re-jack, I guess. Me? A stocks bloodbath into the close would be a day’s worth of justice.
EU Failure Looms
Economics 101 Lecture du jour.
The Dollar climbed to near parity again today with the Euro. There can – in economic fundamentalism – be only two possible general cases at work.
- The United States is getting stronger than hell. No, this one doesn’t fit – weak jobs, rising interest rates and a warning from Jay Powell that really big hikes may be ahead that the markets are ignoring like crazy. So, this doesn’t fit.
- The alternative is the European Union is failing. Climate idiocy is catching up, the EU’s expansionism eastward has run into Vlad Putin, (the Russian, bare) and they are facing an unsupportable additional level of government that seems to exist to line the pockets of the liberal European Bureaucrat Class.
Our vote is #2. A vote informed by the European Council on Foreign Relations article from back in January that said (in part):
“Confronted with the stand-off between Ukraine and Russia, the European Union is failing.
The Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s border and the Kremlin’s political blackmail of NATO constitutes the most dangerous security crisis in Europe this century. The European security architecture is in tatters. Institutional arrangements that have been vital to the continent in the post-cold war era – such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, other arms-control agreements, and the NATO-Russia Founding Act – now exist only on paper. And the threat of an all-out Russian assault on a country associated with the EU has never been more real.”
Pretty good, huh? From January no less!
A little plug and play to support the view: With US dollar nearly equal to euro, impact is being felt.
I can almost predict the phone call later today from my consigliere. I expect he’ll say, “Remember I told you to reread “Guns of August” which is set against events that led to World War I? Now plug in the shooting overnight of conservative former Japanese Prime Minister Abe. Shooting Of Former Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Stuns World Leaders.
Two disturbing aspects: Is the Globalist-Socialist faction behind “open season” on conservatives worldwide, now? And will this work out as a partial rhyme of Barbara Tuchman’s Guns of August?
The heat is set to break after tomorrow here in East Texas, but in the meantime 103 today as the Great Drought spreads inland.
Lake Mead is – after the shuffle-two-step PR efforts – essentially AT dead pool levels now. From here, we will watch closely to see how long the Las Vegas population can be swindled into thinking things are OK…
Russia Opening Second Front: Ukraine is the western front for them and now we see hints of an eastern front as ‘Alaska Is Ours!’ Billboards Appear in Russia After Threat to Reclaim State. To put this in street crime parlance, the drunken Europeans (on verge of collapse) are increasingly likely to fail. So now, Thug Putin is aiming directly at the U.S. This is a 155-year plus old matter of settled ownership. Historical data in The myth—and memorabilia—of Seward’s Folly. Biden sure looks like a laydown to Vlad, seems.
If the whole world is consumed this weekend by a huge space-time entity who’s hungry for Loosh, thank Europe: Scientists observe never before seen “exotic” particles in Cern collider which is running again. Thanks CERN.
ATR: IONS Great Read, Homing
I don’t often tell you “Go read this – it will expand your thinking!” Because, let’s face it, the average UrbanSurvival reader stands head and shoulders above the crowd when comes to clear-headedness.
Having said that, do go read the post on the Institute Of Noetic Sciences (IONS) report from their science team this week “Survival of Consciousness After Death – IONS (noetic.org).
To our simple-minded way of thinking, this makes a lot more sense than study of almost anything else out there. Sure, the startup of CERN again might be useful at some “far down the road” engineering level. But for the IONS article to be personally applicable is just one drunk driver encounter, a chance shooting, or an airline part failure from being realized for each of us.
Lays out what might be thought of as “road signs” to be noticed along the way to…what?
Just the charts, mainly, on Peoplenomics tomorrow. We’re at the top of a trend line which will either be the launch of a huge summer rally or the start of the biggest Bust in history. Gotta admit, I’ve got a kind of morbid fascination with watching it unfold.
ShopTalk Sunday will tear a half-page out of Imagineering and talk about the use of models to help turn an otherwise blasé home into a mind transporter.
I noticed a big difference between me and my son (G2) recently: He’s one of those people who is pin-neat. Like on one of his fire engines – everything in its placed, well-serviced and ready for action. Just a few (framed, just-so) awards on the walls but otherwise an almost “clean room sterile.”
That’s a huge style difference between a father and son. My office looks like a tornado went through a physics lab most of the time. Although in our house, itself, Elaine’s interior design has created a soft Disney theme park vibe to it. Every room as a “story” being told. Not all as cool as the “expanding pictures” in the Haunted House elevator ride down to the car loading area, but definitely a sense of “Out of time and space” because, frankly, the present times are not where we want our minds to be. They suck.
Ever seen a really good like sized diorama in a museum? Absolutely worth your time to seek out and take in. Totally immersive experience!
Something to noodle on for the weekend might go like this:
“If you could live in any fantastic setting – for enjoyment and entertainment – where would that be?”
It’s OK to have images of the Disney Swiss Family Robinson Treehouse, or one of those incredible structures you’ve seen from a genius set designer of some teevee show. Would your home be a recreation of the Wild West with swinging saloon doors and rustic? A pirate’s lair. What would the optics be that would continuously “rub you the right way?”
Little House on the Prairie homesteady place? A re-creation of the command deck of the star ship Enterprise?
News-tipster Linda had a dandy catch this morning: “Dutch house approves law making work from home a legal right (mercurynews.com)”
Given Covid (and whatever is next) have we accidentally stumbled into a climate-friendly way of living, where do you really want to live? Because the “living” takes place between your ears.
Why, I could go so far as to make a (conspiracy-based) argument that Covid-19 was simply a well-disguised ploy to reduce the number of square feet of building space needed for all the excess humans in the world…
But even so, the fundamental problem is defining what “on the outside” would support all that beautiful being and doing “on the inside” (between your ears)?
Easier for some: If there was a scene in a movie – where the “set” really shined and where you’d like to visit to hang out – like the sailing ship deck where Erroll Flynn fights pirates – why isn’t that built as real in your home already?
This’ll sound corny, but we’ve found a useful tune to remember now and then when stress comes knocking: Pure Imagination. Now add a half-pinch of bias to action…
(Life is an escape room adventure and we’re all supposed to be making keys to try! If you’re not, then what’s the point?)
Write when you get rich or knock one out of the park,