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2nd Depression Notebook (2DN)
BTC hit $20,834.70 overnight. We told you these were digital tulips back at roll-out and wanted nothing to do with them.
More 2D Notes:
#1: We are now on the part of the 1929 Replay chart (see Monday’s column) to where no matter what the Fed does tomorrow, a severe recession is already baked in the cake.
People didn’t just wake up in December 1929 and say “Hey! We’re in a Depression now!” People don’t recognize big, fundamental change that fast.
The term “Depression” as relates to the economy didn’t emerge until British economist Lionel Robbins titled a book The Great Depression – in 1934!
If you have a hard time keeping up with our economic yammerings, be of good cheer. Dawn comes slowly with massive, historical-level change. Consciousness takes 2-4 years to grasp change.
#2: A note from my deflationist pal Jas Jain – a retired DSP PhD. – who is not very optimistic about how current events will all work out:
“Delayed Response to the Bad Policies During Covid
INFLATION today is a result of the most irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies in history. Economies of the West are totally unprepared to deal with the debt, especially with high rates due to unavoidable inflation, a result of loose money. Criminals took control of the policies.
Markets now are the only disciplinarian to the democratically elected politicians and politically appointed central bankers!
When the Fed Panics the Crisis Is Already Knocking at the Door!”
The Treasury Public Debt to the Penny was $30,395,962,543,534.33 last Friday. But even Treasury is spinning for the faithful. That debt number doesn’t deal with the compounding effects over time. So $30+ trillion now is really probably around $50-55 trillion and with rates going up, maybe $60-70 trillion in the longer-haul.
Both political division and monetization parties wildly overspent, especially Trump – whose fiscal policies sounded conservative. But the National Debt is now piling and compounding like mad and Biden and the Witch Hunters are no help.
4M: Collapse Workflow
First – if you slept through (or skipped) our Monday column? 4M refers to the four simultaneous created/planned crises that America faces from enemies of the States:
- Morality: Toast. Replaced with gender check and whatever Woke BS. Laws for sale to the highest and most connected. Criminalizing lobbying might be a start.
- Military: Gutted by Obamanistas and now PC idiocy in the ranks. Can a military organization really virtue signal enemies and not lose badly? Doubt it. If you can’t figure out personal plumbing, can you figure out C-4?
- Money: Trump was the “Spender in Chief” but before Biden’s gone, dems are likely to face hyperinflation supreme. Prices do not go up – the purchasing power of your money goes down. Purchasing Power is displaced by Debt Loading! About 3-cents of purchasing power remains left in the 1913 Real Dollar – before Congress abdicated.
- Medicine: Try these on for size: Healthy young people now dying en masse across Australia, and the corporate media still won’t dare mention vaccines. And gay men are cautioned about “monkeying” around: UK Reports 104 More Cases of Monkeypox, Mostly in Men. 99% of cases being among gay men.
Ding, ding, ding! Bonus Round!
This is only part of the set-up. Here’s the rest:
We’re still looking for a low ideally around 28,773 and this morning we were at 31,576-ish. 9-percent more downside from today?
That will only be Wave 3 down, in our counting.
Supporting Data: NFIB and PPI
First, the small business optimism report. Which – and this is why our wild prepping for an awful future is central here – is at 48-year lows! ISYN. Here’s their press release:
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 14, 2022) – The NFIB Optimism Index fell 0.1 points in May to 93.1, marking the fifth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased four points to a net negative 54%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year-old survey. Expectations for better business conditions have deteriorated every month since January.
Twenty-eight percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, a decrease of four points from April. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased two points to a net 72% (seasonally adjusted), back to the highest reading in the 48-year-history of the survey last reached in March and 32 points higher than May 2021.
“Inflation continues to outpace compensation which has reduced real incomes across the nation,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners remain very pessimistic about the second half of the year as supply chain disruptions, inflation, and the labor shortage are not easing.”
Business confidence heads for the toilet.
PPI is Right Behind
Glum and glummer. PPI is the Producer Price Index. It gives a “sneak peek” at how inflation is loading into the supply chain. Frame this as retail in 60-120 days.
“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.4 percent in April and 1.6 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices
moved up 10.8 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
In May, nearly two-thirds of the rise in the index for final demand was due to a 1.4-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services increased 0.4 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.5 percent in May after increasing 0.4 percent in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.8 percent.”
The Fed – in their other-worldly detached – way of thinking, works on prices less food and energy which is crack-o-nomics, near as we can figure.
To summarize: More inflation is coming, democrats are pissing away valuable time on a witch hunt while Rome’s out here burning…
The Washington Witch Trials drag on.
Though we wonder if Trump had secretly but pre-emptively pardoned himself, could Congress even do anything with remnants of a real Supreme Court still in place? Give me a problem I can solve for X.
Drought and Its Pals
My son’s fire line exploits last year aside, I can’t even imagine the cardio impacts of fighting fires up at “tree line” altitudes. Arizona wildfires: Firefighters face hot conditions as blazes grow near Flagstaff. The elevation at Flagstaff is around 7,000 -feet.
Which means what – and why worry? Well… Fourth-generation farmer: ‘Food shortage is coming’ (newsnationnow.com).
I started telling you in December of last year – to get your hands in some dirt and start growing food. Here we are – six months later – and stories like this are popping up around the edges: Take holiday to grow food, Sri Lanka tells civil servants | eNCA. Yes – government workers taking time off so they can grow food.
Toss in stories like The War in Ukraine Has Exposed a Critical American Vulnerability – The Atlantic and our criticism of the Fools on the Hill is really far too gentle.
Excess, Collapse, Hunger, War
We’re always willing to distill five-years of “future history” into sound-bite size.
We haven’t touched on the “war” part, yet. The Excess is done (giving away Covid checks, for example), the Collapse is rolling strongly now. The stock market is already down 10.51 percent since the right-shoulder high on June 2.
Hunger we covered under the smoke, fire, and dust of Drought, So, let’s skip ahead to the chapter after Hunger, OK?
Strait Talk: China sets up US conflict by laying claim to Taiwan Strait | World | The Times and China Wrecks US View On Taiwan Strait With Exclusive Claim: ‘No Such Thing As International Waters’ (ibtimes.com).
Turkey-Syria: Turkey starts laying Black Sea natural gas pipeline to wean off reliance on energy imports (republicworld.com) And did you catch where Israel issues highest travel warning to Istanbul, asks its nationals to leave Turkey amid possible Iran attacks? Pass the canned mushrooms.
Ukraine drain: Russians control 80% of contested city in eastern Ukraine | AP News. And while this evolves, notice German howitzers soon to be ready for use in Ukraine – minister. The problem?
We don’t know what the specific line in the sand is that Vlad Putin is measuring. Howitzers? No, if anyone bites on Ukraine Has Enough Ammunition but Needs Long-Range Weapons -Zelenskiy – by actually sending more long-range war materiel, then that’s when you’ll want batteries for that old Civil Defense field survey counter.
ATR: Greenhouse Fans Paid Off
I’d give you the detailed, blow-by-blow but the bottom line is the small exhaust fans worked brilliantly!
Been surfing the Ag Extension web sites looking for heat-related issues. One article worth reading is Heat wave in the garden: how to identify and prevent heat stress in plants | OSU Extension Service (oregonstate.edu). Lots of others, too.
In just the time since the air exchange was speeded up, afternoon extremes dropped from over 100 to around 96 to 97.
Which is still to hot for some plants, but tomorrow, we may begin a survival gardening guide on Peoplenomics.
There are tons of garden books – I’m trying to distill a ton of gardening down to survival basics with an engineering flow sheet. 10 pages, tops. For people like (did I say Mike in NM?) who may find it useful to eat, but who were born minus the green thumb.
PFE – Personal Food Engineering.
Three for the Road:
G2 checked in from (*on project somewhere) in the field. “Dad – $6 dollars a gallon for diesel! Can you believe this shit?” Yep. $5.016 on the Triple A report this morning.
I re-explained that “Energy prices are ALL ON BIDEN. Since all Europe has ONLY made promises to turn Russian oil by the end of this year. Europeans are habitual liars saying they’ll block most Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. Bought six months to make up excuses. All of it is BBSS (Biden bull-shit stumbling). He’s MAKING FAMINE! Commies and their stooges ALWAYS go for the food lever, son. No one besides the Ure family seems conversant in the Stalin era collectivization genocide in Ukraine!”
One of my daughters checked in from Seattle: “Can you believe it’s raining again up here?” Higher hiking grounds in the PNW up into BC still have snow around. And east of there for the back country types? Yellowstone Floods Wipe Out Roads, Bridges, Strand Visitors. While the South is begging for rain.
Last call: At click time, the Dow futures were up a lousy 77-points. BTC $21,902.
Write when you get rich,