Here we go, once again, wondering about possible market action in the short-term.

With the early futures down two hunsky’s, I put in a pseudo-number into our Aggregate Index to estimate what might evolve in today’s action:

See that roughly sketched-in trend channel?  You got that?  See how we MIGHT today, or tomorrow come down with a possible iv (4th) Elliott wave to smack the ascending trend line?  (Peoplenomics  subscribers know how to draw and read these, since we’ve explained theory was we’ve evolved this “outer channel” stuff…)

If it works out, we might get interested in riding the fifth wave up which could be violently up (maybe based on end of the Trade War, or something really globally positive) in which case mid-January would be the last chance for bulls to convert to bears.  OR, and this can’t be discounted either:  We might see a “complex iv” develop that could work sideways into next February or March and leave the final blow-off for May, or so.

We just don’t know.

But, when markets are as nutty as they are, it makes getting out of bed worthwhile.  It’s like going to a 50-year long football game, played for about 220 days a year and being able to call in plays.  Except, unlike Fantasy Football, there’s no field:  Just a scoreboard which seems pretty random, at times.

48 to Wait

Although my natural inclination would be to get wildly bullish as soon as that lower trend line is hit on the close (remember, the chart above is futures pricing for today’s drop), I’ve seen enough dough go “Poof!” from being too anxious.  Besides, the Wave 4 could be a long, complex sideways move…

Also, if we drop (and close) for a couple of days below that right-side support level, we could drop even further.  How far?  Well there are targets down as low as the 1540 S&P level.  Those come with an  economic depression as a bonus.

A couple of events tomorrow will drive the market and may give us a glimpse of what’s to come.  Tomorrow morning there’s the ADP jobs report.  If strong, that’d be a good thing.  If weak?  Not so much.  BTFD (*buy the freakin dips) on the close today?  Depends on your wallet and testosterone levels, prolly.

Tomorrow there’s the Shifty Schiff Circus.  Democrats will have three shysters double-talking legal mumbo to present their “case.”  The republicans will have one.  If that sounds a bit crooked, remember this is a political trial and fairness, facts, and justice have absolutely nothing to do with the outcome.  Why, there’s not even an agenda.  No discovery, biased media, and limited cross…  foregone conclusion, as we score it.

Europe is Crumbling

Donald Trump is in Europe today for the NATO summit, and as a New York Times reports “President Trump said a warning from President Emmanuel Macron of France that Europe could no longer assume support from the United States was “a very dangerous statement.”

The Collapse of Europe is not something most people see coming – at least yet.  But let’s line up some data points and see, shall we?

  • The “Euro” currency is not universal.  As my consigliere points out, when you look at Euro notes, they are country-specific.
  • This means the ECB (their spin on a real central bank) is really quite week.
  • Looking for a way to “make up creds” the European Union this last summer threw-in with the climate change cons in order to invent “EU Green Bonds.”  The premise is a notion called “sustainable finance” that would be harmonious with climate change.  We’ll report deeper  Saturday on the Peoplenomics side on how this will fail as it adds another chapter to my book “The 100-Year Toaster.
  • Of course, once you can get your mits on the money, you can eventually whangle into taxing…and that means power – which is what the Euro-pricks are all about.
  • Since there’s power vested (by dumb Europeans) in the EU, France’s Macron has designs on that power.  The chance is he wants to head up the EU at some point.  But, as an op-ed from Bloomberg wonders, “Why would Europe want that?”

Keep the popcorn ready:  Europeans were screwed by the EU with open borders that started the Muslim Reconquest of Europe.  As social costs of that boner scream skyward, individual countries will look to the EU Nanny-State for help.  Which will be wrapped up in climate bonds and “sustainable economics” mumbo-jumbo.  The dim-witted serfs on the Continent will suck it up; having little taste for freedom and independence of thought.

This is not “politically correct” thinking, of course.  It’s just factual and an observation of cause and effect.  Political correctness is nothing more than propaganda from whoever, though we assume you know that scam, already.

Bottom Line:  It’s a longer-range prediction, but I reckon Europe will collapse within five-years, possibly 10 tops.

As my consigliere  pointed out, there’s just too much social friction in Europe, even today.  “In Germany, people live to work which in France, people work to live…”  If the EU were a marriage, that mindset-differential would end up on a court do docket sometime.

The EU has been one policy failure after another.  There’s been talk since 2017 about an EU mega-army to supercede NATO. Put a Frenchman like Macron in charge of that, phony finance scams and “green bonds” and we gotta wonder: What could possibly go wrong?”

In the Shorts…

Snooze or news, that’s always the question, ain’t it?

Russia is investing more in the Arctic says the Moscow Times in Rosatom Deal to Boost Russia’s Arctic Infrastructure.

How many Inches? Stubborn storm bringing heavy snow to parts of Northeast to linger at least another day.

Your home is still your best investment, for most people, even when the markets sometimes have a one or two year run.  See CoreLogic Reports October Home Prices Increased by 3.5% Year Over Year.   Still, real estate didn’t keep up with M2 money which is up 6.3% year-on-year as of the latest H.6 money stocks report…

Off to the chow line…

Write when you get rich,

george@ure.net

Product of the Decade: Climate Change
Markets Waiting for Santa (Us too!)